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Thursday, 18 August 2011

Tennis Picks August 18th Cincinnati

It was another topsy-turvy day yesterday that began terribly, but ended with lot of positives and profits.

Andy Murray looked impressive in dispatching David Nalbandian and that means both outright picks are alive this week. There is still a lot of tennis to be played before anything good comes from the outright picks, but it's been a longer adventure than last week when both exited the tournament at a very early stage.

On to the Picks:

Andy Murray - 4.5 games vs Alex Bogomolov: This is a big chance for Andy Murray to get revenge for an embarrassing loss to Bogomolov earlier this year in Miami.

That loss came during a big slump in form for Murray after the Australian Open, but I think he is in better form now.

Bogomolov recorded another big win this season when beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga yesterday and he is enjoying his time here, coming through 5 Rounds to reach this stage.

I am a little concerned that Murray has too many lapses in his concentration, but I do expect the British Number 1 to move through in straight sets and I can see him pulling away in the second set to cover the spread.


Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games vs Fernando Verdasco: Rafael Nadal has beaten his Spanish compatriot in all 12 previous meetings and I don't think Verdasco is in the form to change that.

The closest Verdasco came to beating Nadal was in Australia in that Semi Final of 2009 when he pushed Nadal to the limits of his game, but Verdasco is far removed from that kind of form and the 2 sets he won that day are part of the 3 sets he has EVER won against Nadal.

I think Rafa is far too consistent for Verdasco, who is capable of throwing in nightmare service games, and I expect him to move through without too much fuss.


David Ferrer - 2.5 games vs Gilles Simon: David Ferrer is the ultimate competitor and I have a lot of respect for his dedication to his craft and his ability to get the absolute best from his ability- personally I think a lot of youngsters playing the game should look at Ferrer as an example of what hard work can reward.

Ferrer's lack of matches on the hard courts is a concern, but he plays Gilles Simon who also has not played too much hard court tennis this Summer.

I think Ferrer holds a big edge in the match up because the two players essentially have the same game, yet it is Ferrer who is just a little better in all departments.

Ferrer has won their 2 previous meetings, albeit back in 2007, and he lost just 5 games combined in winning in straight sets on each occasion... I think he will win in straight sets again tonight.


Gael Monfils - 1.5 games vs Philipp Kohlschreiber: Gael Monfils has a very good record against Philipp Kohlschreiber and I expect he can continue that here.

My biggest concern is the fact that Monfils has been playing a lot of tennis in recent weeks, reaching the Final in Washington and the Quarter Final in Montreal last week, and he may be a little fatigued.

Kohlschreiber is making a surprise appearance at this stage as he was not expected to win his first 2 matches, but he had not been in great form on the hard courts this season and I think Monfils will be just too good for him again.


Daniela Hantuchova vs Marion Bartoli: I am not convinced the layers have this right by making Hantuchova the underdog in this match.

The Slovakian has a 4-1 head to head record against Bartoli and that includes 2 wins on the hard courts of the United States, the latest coming in San Diego last season.

Neither player has been in fantastic form of late, but I think Hantuchova will have the mental edge in the match and can come through, possibly in 3 sets.


Petra Kvitova vs Andrea Petkovic: A quick look at the results from Toronto will show Petkovic beat Kvitova in straight sets last week for the loss of just 3 games, but the match was a lot closer than that and I think the Wimbledon champion can overturn that result.

There has been an overreaction, in my opinion, from that result last week and they are now set as a pick 'em contest or with Kvitova as the slight favourite and I will have a go backing her to win.

The Czech player has not played a lot of tennis of late and struggled a little more against Chanelle Scheepers than I thought she would, but the match is on her racquet and if she can cut out some of the unforced errors, I think she can win.


MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 4.5 games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 1.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Daniela Hantuchova @ 2.20 BetFred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE: + 3.04 Units

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