One down, two to go- that is how the outright picks are going as we get down to the Final 4 in both of these tournaments this week.
Marcos Baghdatis was a huge disappointment yesterday as he fell in straight sets to Donald Young. I warned myself that it could be one of those weeks for Young, but did not heed that advice and still fancied Baghdatis to get the job done. He had 3 set points in the 2nd set but failed to convert- more disappointing was the fact he failed to get the ball in play on any of those points before falling in the tie break.
It was more frustrating considering he faced Radek Stepanek in the Semi Final if he had got through and he could have really boosted the coffers as a 19.00 shot outright at the start of the week.
Now we have John Isner and Agnieska Radwanska left in the outright as the tournaments come to a close.
The Picks:
Andrea Petkovic vs Agnieska Radwanska: Anyone who followed my outrights at the start of the week know we will win 4 units if Radwanska makes it through to the Final, but the Polish player had called for a trainer in her last match with Daniela Hantuchova and has since admitted that she considered pulling out of the match.
Petkovic has become a popular figure in the stands as she follows victories with the 'Petko Dance' that became famous when she did it for a joke last year. She has been solid on the hard courts and has had a routine path through to the Semi Final, but generally has faltered when coming up against the better players on the tour with losses to Maria Sharapova, Na Li and Marion Bartoli on the hard courts this year.
Radwanska is a solid hard court player herself and reached the Final here last year so obviously must like the conditions. She came back from a horror start against Daniela Hantuchova in the last Round by overturning a 0-6 first set to win in 3 sets. However, I am still concerned about her shoulder and whether she wants to fight through.
Radwanska also holds a 2-0 head to head over Petkovic, winning both matches on the hard courts of Tokyo in the last 2 seasons. Personally, I thought Radwanska would be the favourite, but the injury has me concerned and I will cover my outright here.
Vera Zvonareva - 3.5 games vs Ana Ivanovic: Ana Ivanovic is apparently still having a little bit of trouble with her wrist, and she now faces a real competitor in the form of Vera Zvonareva.
The Russian is in good form having won a hard court tournament in Azerbaijan a couple of weeks ago and her 3 set win over Sabine Lasicki is impressive, especially the focus she had in the match.
Ivanovic has won through in straight sets in every match this week, but she is still capable of throwing in a stinker and she will be under more pressure against a quality opponent today.
The head to head is 4-4, but it is Zvonareva that has won the last 2 meetings, although they have not played since March 2009. Zvonareva remains the stronger player and I think she will come through with a break in each set to record a straight sets victory.
Gael Monfils vs John Isner: This is another pick for those that followed the outright picks at the start of the week- we took Isner at 10.00 to win the tournament so will be due 4.5 Units if he makes it through to the Final.
I am going to put a couple of units on Monfils here to cover the outright as the Frenchman has played well this week and the lottery of tie breaks is not worth the stress. Whoever wins this match will be the big favourite to win the tournament on Sunday.
As for personal opinion, I think Monfils is overestimated in the match to win, especially the way Isner can serve in tie breaks. If I had no outrights running, I would suggest the value is on the American.
MY PICKS: Andrea Petkovic @ 1.72 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Vera Zvonareva - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils @ 1.66 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE WASHINGTON/SAN DIEGO: + 0.58 Units
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