The Champions League and Europa League takes centre stage this week as both competitions return after the two month break between the Group Stage and the Knock Out Stages. I am still not convinced with the idea the Champions League has in pushing their Last 16 ties over four matchdays and spread over the course of a month, but it does mean the neutral gets to see more of the high-quality matches that they would want.
Well I say that, but the Last 16 draw in the Champions League is largely underwhelming and half of the ties have a clear favourite. Even the Juventus-Borussia Dortmund game has lost some of the appeal with the latter struggling for form, while the two English clubs in Chelsea and Manchester City have the two best ties of the Round as they face Paris Saint-Germain and Barcelona respectively.
What this Round does mean is that we should get an exceptional Quarter Final line up now that there is no country protection for the draw.
Talking about country protection, I can't be the only one that thinks it is silly to have that in ANY Round during the Knock Out Stage- I understand UEFA want a European experience and wouldn't want the four English/Spanish/German sides to play one another in the Last 16, but I think if you finish 2nd in the Group, you shouldn't be given the chance to avoid one of the top Seeds.
It hasn't had an effect this season, but a team like Arsenal have had to suffer through really difficult Last 16 ties because other '2nd Seeded' teams couldn't play the likes of Bayern Munich or Barcelona or Real Madrid because they come from the same nation. That just doesn't seem fair to me and I think the country protection should only be reserved for the Group Stage and even then I am not completely convinced.
If you're considered 'bad enough' to be a Fourth Seed in the Groups, I don't see why teams from your own nation should be 'punished' by not having the opportunity to play against that team and earn the 'easy' draw that their Seeding should technically give them.
The Europa League also feels more 'important' this season now that the winner is rewarded with a place in the Champions League and you have to think the likes of Inter Milan, Fiorentina, Villarreal, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur all will be looking at this as a genuine route onto the top table in European Football. The likes of Liverpool and Spurs are in a very competitive battle for top four spots in England, while the other three teams I mentioned are perhaps just off the pace and can concentrate on this competition a bit more.
I guess we will know more later this week after Tottenham Hotspur host Fiorentina in what looks to be the tie of the Round and there are other dangerous teams in this tournament that I haven't mentioned just yet.
It will be interesting to see what kind of approach managers have to the Last 32 of the Europa League, which still looks a way out to Warsaw, but the importance of the competition certainly feels it has grown.
Paris Saint-Germain v Chelsea Pick: The Last 16 of the Champions League has put together a couple of really big ties which will take place over the next month, but the one between Chelsea and Paris Saint-Germain is arguably the best of the bunch, especially if it comes close to the drama of the Quarter Final last season.
Paris Saint-Germain have to be kicking themselves for the way they lost that tie thanks to a late Demba Ba goal as they had a number of chances to score the away goal they conceded at home. Keeping clean sheets has been something of a problem for PSG in the Champions League and they have only kept 1 in their last 7 home games in this competition, although that hasn't stopped them beating the likes of Chelsea and Barcelona in front of their own fans.
However, PSG still had to settle for finishing behind the Catalan giants which has given them this tie and it has been made all the more difficult with a sudden long injury list being produced. You would also think that Jose Mourinho would have learned from the 3-1 defeat here last season and that does make Chelsea a more dangerous proposition as they return to Paris.
Last season, Chelsea went with a false nine system, but the return of Diego Costa gives them a real focal point in this one. They also sat back a little too much in the second half and were not as effective on the counter-attack as they would have liked so Mourinho will make the tactical changes to make Chelsea that much more of a threat throughout the game this time.
One thing that Mourinho can be guilty of is playing a little cautiously at times in these two legged ties and that might be where Paris Saint-Germain have their success. They would have been buoyed by seeing some of the Chelsea away performances in the 2015 season, especially at Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool, and will feel they are better than those two Europa League teams.
I can make a case for both teams to have their successes in this one, but the Paris Saint-Germain home record, both at home and in the Champions League, is very hard to dismiss. It just makes me believe that they can overcome the injuries they are facing and they do look a big price considering wins over Barcelona and Chelsea in the last twelve months at the Parc de Princes.
It might be a more cautious game than the one they played here last season, but I still think PSG edge taking a lead to London, although not one that settles the tie. A small interest at the prices look justified to me.
Shakhtar Donetsk v Bayern Munich Pick: When you consider this is supposed to be the best 16 teams in European football, Bayern Munich look very short to win at Shakhtar Donetsk, although I would be surprised if there is a different result in this First Leg. Shakhtar Donetsk are a very tough team to beat in the Ukraine, but Bayern Munich are a different level to what they would have faced in the Group Stage and the side only went 1-1-1 at home in those three games.
That included a 0-1 defeat in their final home game against Athletic Bilbao which essentially cost Shakhtar Donetsk the chance to overturn Porto for top spot in the Group. No competitive football for a couple of months is also going to have an affect on Shakhtar Donetsk, while Bayern Munich should dominate the possession of the ball.
Shakhtar Donetsk do have a lot of pace in the forward positions which could cause Bayern Munich some real problems, but they will need possession to make that pace count and it could be a tough day in the office for them.
While Shakhtar Donetsk don't lose too often at home in the Champions League, their last 5 losses have all come when they have failed to score and Bayern Munich could come away with a clean sheet from this one. The question then becomes whether the Bundesliga leaders have enough in them to create chances and score a goal or two that will set them up for a comfortable second leg.
I am not completely convinced that Bayern Munich will over-run Shakhtar Donetsk in a tough away game so the Asian Handicap markets look hard to judge- while I don't know if Bayern Munich can win this one going away, I do think they are capable of doing that when on form so even backing the home team with a head-start might not be worth doing.
Instead, I think backing the Bayern Munich side to dominate possession, restrict Shakhtar Donetsk chances and return to Bavaria with a win coupled with a clean sheet is worth a small interest.
Basel v Porto Pick: The First Leg of these knock out ties in the European Champions League would be expected to be tight affairs, or so the theory goes, but it is something of a surprise that only 8/32 of the Last 16 First Leg ties have ended in a draw over the last four years.
It might be down to the fact that a lot of the bigger teams in European football are head and shoulders above the next level and they generally win these ties, but neither Porto nor Basel will be thinking they are the clear favourite in this one. That could produce a tighter contest where both teams will want to be in the tie when they meet in the Second Leg next month and I am finding it hard to separate them.
Basel have played very well at home in European competition over the last few years and that includes beating the likes of Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Bayern Munich in Champions League ties. Paulo Sousa knows all there is to know about Portuguese football so that insider knowledge may give his Basel team another edge in this First Leg in front of their own fans.
However, Porto have played very well in the Champions League this season and they have goals in the side which makes them a threat, although getting beyond the Quarter Final would be a huge surprise. They will be put under pressure by Basel, but Porto have won in places like Athletic Bilbao and Lille since the start of the season and will have full belief that they can win this tie if they go back to Portugal with either a win or a draw.
Both teams may actually accept the draw if it is was offered to them now, although the onus is on Basel to attack. They have done well in the Europa League in knock-out football, so those experiences will tell them that they can win this tie even if they have to go to Porto neither ahead or behind.
This looks an incredibly close game to call and I think backing the draw could pay off.
Schalke v Real Madrid Pick: This is another Champions League Last 16 tie with a very short away favourite in the First Leg, but I think Real Madrid have the firepower to give Schalke a really difficult time in this one. Last season saw Schalke crushed at home by Real Madrid at the exact same stage and their heavy home losses to Chelsea (0-3 last season and 0-5 in the Group this season) associated with the Real Madrid win here suggests Schalke have a team who can be put to the sword by the best teams.
Schalke have drawn twice with Bayern Munich this season, but it is a different feeling when a team from outside your nation comes to visit and the inspiration needed for the results they achieved against Bayern isn't so prevalent. The fans will want to rattle 'Hollywood FC' but they can sometimes sit back and admire what the likes of Chelsea and Real Madrid can produce which doesn't help the players on the field.
The other factor is that Schalke's style of play meshes perfectly with what Real Madrid want to do and the German side will try and attack which might expose them defensively. There is a lot of pace in the Real Madrid team and the counter-attack proved devastating last season and could be a big problem for Schalke to deal with in this game too.
Real Madrid haven't been as good on their travels since coming out of the 'Winter Break' and 2 of their 3 away wins in the Group Stage of the Champions League came by a solitary goal. However, Real Madrid crushed Liverpool, who were more open because they had belief in their own attack and I expect Schalke could have a similar issue.
At odds against, I think there is a real reason to back Real Madrid to come to Schalke and leave with a very strong lead and effectively a foot in the Quarter Finals. The last three top teams to visit this Stadium have won comfortably and Schalke have lost their last 2 home games in the Last 16 in each of the last two seasons.
Backing Real Madrid to cover the Asian Handicap looks the call.
AaB v Club Brugge Pick: Club Brugge have got a very big game against Gent this Sunday so their focus might be taken away from this First Leg of their Europa League tie in Denmark, but I think that has been reflected in their odds against quote and the side look to be worth backing. Club Brugge have already won at Copenhagen and Brondby in the Europa League this season and both of those sides are better than AaB in the Danish top flight so the hat-trick of wins in this nation can be completed.
AaB have also been on their Winter Break and won't return to competitive action until this game kicks off before they have a big game against Brondby over the weekend. One concern I would have in backing Club Brugge is how well AaB have played at home this season, which includes a win over Copenhagen, and the fact that this team won all 3 home Group games in this competition.
That will make them dangerous and confident of keeping this tie alive for the Second Leg in Belgium next week, but I think the quality is on the side of Club Brugge and they might be worth a small interest to get a vital away win on Thursday.
Torino v Athletic Bilbao Pick: The layers initially opened Torino up at very big odds to win the First Leg of this Last 32 Europa League tie, but they have either seen sense or taken some big money on the home team winning this match. Whatever has happened, Torino's odds have shortened for this game, but I still believe the Italian side are going to get the better of Athletic Bilbao and at least go to the Basque country with a lead next week.
Torino have been playing well at home but struggled to produce the wins in recent games, although they will look to history to help them get over the hump in this one. The club have won all 4 home games against Spanish opposition in the past, while Torino have won 7 of their last 9 home European games and not conceded in any of the last 8.
I expect Athletic Bilbao pose problems against all those records, especially as they have shown improvement in recent weeks with their sole loss coming against Barcelona which is understandable to say the least. They haven't lost too many away games over the last few months and this tie could be fairly tight as both teams won't want to give too much away too early.
However, I think Torino will know they need to have something of a lead to take to Bilbao next week and will be pushing a little more. Most Spanish teams don't take a backward step anyway so I expect the home side will have spaces to exploit and they could be worth a small interest to come out of the First Leg with a narrow lead.
Wolfsburg v Sporting Lisbon Pick: The Europa League has some intriguing ties in the Last 32 and this is another of those as Wolfsburg get set to host Sporting Lisbon in what could be a vital First Leg for both of these teams. Wolfsburg have been flying at home all season and have scored a lot of goals in recent weeks which will make them believe they can make the trip to Lisbon a foregone conclusion, although Sporting will look back on their two games with Schalke and believe they can cause problems for another Bundesliga side.
Both teams look to get forward and score goals and this should make this an entertaining encounter where they look for the rewards of winning a game rather than play out a tense game and try to settle things next week.
Wolfsburg have scored 7 goals in their last 2 home games, but they should also be tested at the back by a Sporting Lisbon team that has scored in all 3 away games in the Champions League Group Stage, including 3 times in Schalke despite playing with ten men for a large amount of that game. In fact, Sporting Lisbon have only failed to score in 2 of their last 11 away games in European Football and I do think they will come here with the pace in forward positions to create chances and score goals.
However, I do also believe Wolfsburg are going to take a narrow lead to Portugal next week with the form they have been displaying. The team never know when it is too late to win a game as they showed at the weekend in a 4-5 win at Bayer Leverkusen and they are playing with the confidence that should see them create their chances to win the game.
Backing the home team to win a game in which both teams score looks a decent price to me.
Celtic v Inter Milan Pick: This match will bring back memories of the 1967 European Cup Final which was won by the 'Lions of Lisbon' representing Glasgow Celtic, but beating Inter Milan and moving into the Last 16 of the Europa League looks a big ask of them almost 50 years later.
As well as Celtic have begun to play domestically, they have been found short a lot of the times in European Football this season and now they face one of the favourites for the Europa League. However, this isn't a vintage Inter Milan team and they are a long way from the one that won the Champions League in 2010 and have struggled in Serie A.
Celtic did win 2 of their 3 home Group games in the Europa League, but defeats to Legia Warsaw, Maribor and Salzburg in their Champions League and Europa League games at home have to be a real concern for them. Whether Inter Milan can become the latest side to leave Glasgow with a victory is another matter as they have struggled to impose themselves in away games in European Football and had to settle for two draws and a win in the Group.
Even the win came courtesy of a red card for Dnipro and Inter Milan scored fairly late on to take the victory. I think Roberto Mancini will be aware of the importance of not leaving Celtic Park with a defeat and will believe his side can beat the Scottish Champions at the San Siro next week. I can imagine that makes Inter Milan a little more cautious and they may have to settle for a draw in this First Leg.
Liverpool v Besiktas Pick: This is a tough position for Brendan Rodgers to decide what he wants to do as Liverpool have some huge matches coming up in the Premier League against teams challenging for the Champions League spots as well as the FA Cup Quarter Final against Blackburn Rovers. You would think the manager won't want to lose the momentum that Liverpool have clearly picked up in recent weeks so he won't want to see his side slip out of the Europa League meekly.
So how do I feel this one will play out? I think Brendan Rodgers will look to use Anfield to the full effect in this one and will play a strong Liverpool team in the hope of putting the tie to bed in the First Leg. That will be almost impossible against a Besiktas team that has played well at Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur already this season, but Rodgers would probably take a two goal lead to Istanbul and then hope a re-jigged line up can complete the job.
Daniel Sturridge is back scoring goals and I would be surprised if the England international doesn't at least start this game, although he is likely to be taken off for the game against Southampton on Sunday. His presence does seem to give the rest of the team a little extra spring in their step and Liverpool have been playing very well and creating a lot of chances in recent weeks which Sturridge will thrive upon.
Defensively they are still a bit of a concern, but they might be facing a Besiktas team that looks to defend deep and make sure they are still in the tie next week when these teams go to Istanbul for the Second Leg.
I do think this Liverpool team are playing well enough at the moment to win this game with a little more comfort than Arsenal did when they beat Besiktas 1-0 earlier this season. Even Tottenham Hotspur would have won by that scoreline if not for a late penalty for the Turkish side and Besiktas may not be so fortunate again.
They don't lose often, but I think Besiktas will do well to escape with a narrow defeat in this one and I will back Liverpool to cover the Asian Handicap.
Sevilla v Borussia Monchengladbach Pick: This looks to be another fascinating tie between two teams that could potentially be involved in the Champions League next season if they can maintain their League form. Sevilla look the better team of the two, but Borussia Monchengladbach showed their own capabilities by earning a 2-2 draw at Villarreal in the Group Stage of the Europa League.
Being the defending Champions has to offer Sevilla more inspiration, although there might be a nagging doubt at the back of both team's minds that they will be better off concentrating on League matters than this long Europa League. Sevilla have been very good at home though and that should be enough for them to earn the edge and take a lead to Germany next week, although Borussia Monchengladbach could have a vital away goal in their pocket too.
I did consider backing this game to feature at least three goals as both teams are decent going forward, but Borussia Monchengladbach haven't been scoring a lot of goals of late and that raises doubts.
Instead, I will take the slightly shorter price on a home win with Sevilla being so effective in front of their own fans and looking to score the goals that makes the trip to Germany slightly 'easier' next week. Could be a fun game to watch, but Sevilla to win the First Leg looks the call.
Tottenham Hotspur v Fiorentina Pick: This looks like one of those ties that could give the winner the confidence to go all the way in the Europa League this season and you have to imagine both managers are thinking something very similar. Both Tottenham Hotspur and Fiorentina won't have too many clubs to fear in the Europa League and that makes this tie a fascinating one that could be decided by the smallest of margins.
For Tottenham Hotspur, you have to think the First Leg is going to be all-important after the 1-3 loss to Benfica at White Hart Lane effectively ended their chances of going through to the Quarter Finals last season. They have found a real groove at home in recent weeks and been winning plenty of plaudits and games in front of their own fans and I think they will have a strong team out to ensure they take an advantage to Florence next week.
That won't be easy though against a Fiorentina team that is unbeaten in their last 12 away games in the Europa League and have won 7 of their last 9 away from home in all competitions. Those runs include a draw at Juventus in the Last 16 last season and beating Roma in the Coppa Italia a couple of weeks ago so Fiorentina will be very confident in their own chances.
The question for Vincenzo Montella will be whether he tempers his players instinct to get forward to make sure they don't allow too much space for Harry Kane and this Tottenham Hotspur team who can score plenty of goals at home. On the other hand, Montella won't want Fiorentina to sit too deep and invite pressure onto them and that puts them in a difficult position in this one.
Tottenham Hotspur's mindset will be much clearer knowing they want to win this home tie to give themselves the best possible chance of moving into the Last 16. They have had a week to prepare for the game and that clarity might lead to a narrow win to take to Italy next Thursday.
MY PICKS: Paris Saint-Germain @ 2.80 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Bayern Munich Win to Nil @ 2.25 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Basel-Porto Draw @ 3.30 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Club Brugge @ 2.20 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Torino @ 2.40 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Both Teams to Score and Wolfsburg to Win @ 3.20 William Hill (1 Unit)
Celtic-Inter Milan Draw @ 3.40 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Liverpool - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.98 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sevilla @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.25 William Hill (2 Units)
February Update: 7-13, - 6.73 Units (35 Units Staked, - 19.23% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 80-120-2, - 29.42 Units (346 Units Staked, - 8.50% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
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Tuesday, 17 February 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (February 17th)
It has been a pretty brutal first couple of days in this new week on the Tour for my picks which have not been helped by two players on the way to winning their matches both seeing their opponents retire. I have yet to be the beneficiary of a retirement when a pick looks set to lose, so those picks ending as void coupled with the horrible picks I have made have got this week off to a pretty terrible start.
This is only the Tuesday so there is plenty of chances to recover, but I need a change in fortune for that to happen, especially with some of the stupid mistakes being made by players I have backed. It almost feels like they hit the wall when it looks easier to win, for example check the way Mona Barthel had Daniela Hantuchova completely on the ropes in their match on Monday but still couldn't get the job done.
Ana Ivanovic - 3.5 games v Sabine Lisicki: It has been a long lay off for Ana Ivanovic since her surprising First Round exit at the Australian Open where she was considered a dark horse for the title, but the match with Sabine Lisicki should be one that works well for the Serb.
Being off the Tour can lead to some rustiness in competitive tennis, but Ivanovic has the heavy groundstrokes that can keep Lisicki on the back foot, although she has to serve better when it comes down to the second serve. That has been a weakness in the Ivanovic game for far too long now, although she might not feel the pressure against Lisicki, a player she has dominated in the past.
They met four times last season and Ivanovic won three of those matches, while the exception at Wimbledon was perhaps an expected result for many in favour of Lisicki. The German does have a big game that can cause problems, but she is very erratic and could be on the wrong side of the result in a match where both players will have chances to break serve.
The first set is bound to be tight considering Ivanovic hasn't played for a while, but I expect her to then move away with a 75, 63 win.
Roberta Vinci - 3.5 games v Lucie Hradecka: Last season was a pretty poor one for Roberta Vinci and there is every chance she could have a tough 2015 upcoming, although the clay courts remain her domain and the surface that will likely prevent a large slip down the Rankings.
The Italian is the World Number 38 but remains almost 100 places better off than Lucie Hradecka who had a wonderful Australian Open. However, she had a decent first Grand Slam of the season in 2014 too before struggling to maintain that form and I do think her game could see the errors extracted from it by Vinci on this surface.
These two players haven't met since 2011 when Roberta Vinci won three matches against Lucie Hradecka including a pretty comfortable win on the clay courts after dropping the first set in that match. I think Vinci will get the better of the longer rallies in this one too and can grind her way to the win.
One concern would be if Hradecka brings her big game to the fore, but I think she would prefer to play someone like Vinci on the faster surfaces and the Italian comes through 64, 64.
Sara Errani - 5.5 games v Teliana Pereira: Like her compatriot, and Doubles partner, Roberta Vinci, Sara Errani has slipped in the Rankings over the 2014 season and is unlikely to recover her form to the extent of being a feature in the World's Top Ten. However, she remains a real threat on the clay courts with her style of play capable of extracting errors out of the best players on the Tour and I expect she will be too strong for home hope Teliana Pereira.
Pereira actually reached the Semi Final here in Rio last season so you have to imagine she will be confident in her chances, although her run came to a stunning halt by arguably the first really good player she met. The Brazilian can't work her way into this event with this match against the Number 1 Seed and Errani remains such a difficult test on the clay courts for the players on Tour that I expect her to win this one going away.
The biggest problem for Errani with a spread like this is her own serve which is limited to say the least and one that will give Pereira a chance to get on the front foot. However, Errani's defences can frustrate players to push for the lines too much and that is where Errani can get away with the serve that is little more than a way for her to start another long rally.
I do think the first set could be tight, but Errani will wear down Pereira in my opinion and come through 64, 62.
Dominic Thiem - 1.5 games v Joao Sousa: I don't think I am the only one who thinks Dominic Thiem has a very bright future on the Tour and I think he should be winning matches like this one against Joao Sousa. Sousa is a very good professional who will take every match very seriously and will put in a full effort which will see him beat players if they are not concentrating, but Thiem should be the better player as long as his focus is on the match.
It has been a difficult start to the 2015 season for Thiem who has only won one match so far, but he has all the tools to up that number very quickly. Of course it is also in contrast to Sousa who has played well in Montpellier and also reached the Third Round at the Australian Open.
Sousa doesn't have a very big game, but he works hard on the court with his defence a key part of his tactics and he can force mistakes from his opponents. However, he is working so hard to maintain his place in matches that he can sometimes lose a bit of gas in the tank and that is where Thiem should take over.
Their previous match came at the Australian Open over twelve months ago and it was a very tight match to be honest. This one looks like it might go three sets too, but I think Thiem can battle through to a 64, 36, 63 win.
David Ferrer - 5.5 games v Daniel Gimeno-Traver: David Ferrer was a little beat up at the Australian Open and the Spaniard continues to slip from the top of the men's game, although he is still capable of producing the tennis he has become known for. He did win the title in Doha, but the lay off could have an affect and give Daniel Gimeno-Traver a chance to perhaps spring a surprise.
And it would be a surprise if the veteran Spaniard who now produces his best tennis on the Challenger circuit is going to beat David Ferrer in this First Round match. The Gimeno-Traver serve is something of a weakness and he is going to have work very hard to keep holding and I think that pressure will eventually crack his chances in this one.
Ferrer is unlikely to take any point off and will make Gimeno-Traver really earn every point he is to win and it will be tough on the clay courts to maintain the rallies if Ferrer is on form. The last few years has seen Ferrer come off the lay off between the Australian Open and the Golden Swing in South America in impressive form as he has won titles in that situation. He has also made a fast start in those tournaments for the main part and Ferrer should be in a position to get clear of Gimeno-Traver in this one.
A tight first set is expected, but Ferrer should pull away for a 64, 62 win in this one.
MY PICKS: Ana Ivanovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberta Vinci - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
This is only the Tuesday so there is plenty of chances to recover, but I need a change in fortune for that to happen, especially with some of the stupid mistakes being made by players I have backed. It almost feels like they hit the wall when it looks easier to win, for example check the way Mona Barthel had Daniela Hantuchova completely on the ropes in their match on Monday but still couldn't get the job done.
Ana Ivanovic - 3.5 games v Sabine Lisicki: It has been a long lay off for Ana Ivanovic since her surprising First Round exit at the Australian Open where she was considered a dark horse for the title, but the match with Sabine Lisicki should be one that works well for the Serb.
Being off the Tour can lead to some rustiness in competitive tennis, but Ivanovic has the heavy groundstrokes that can keep Lisicki on the back foot, although she has to serve better when it comes down to the second serve. That has been a weakness in the Ivanovic game for far too long now, although she might not feel the pressure against Lisicki, a player she has dominated in the past.
They met four times last season and Ivanovic won three of those matches, while the exception at Wimbledon was perhaps an expected result for many in favour of Lisicki. The German does have a big game that can cause problems, but she is very erratic and could be on the wrong side of the result in a match where both players will have chances to break serve.
The first set is bound to be tight considering Ivanovic hasn't played for a while, but I expect her to then move away with a 75, 63 win.
Roberta Vinci - 3.5 games v Lucie Hradecka: Last season was a pretty poor one for Roberta Vinci and there is every chance she could have a tough 2015 upcoming, although the clay courts remain her domain and the surface that will likely prevent a large slip down the Rankings.
The Italian is the World Number 38 but remains almost 100 places better off than Lucie Hradecka who had a wonderful Australian Open. However, she had a decent first Grand Slam of the season in 2014 too before struggling to maintain that form and I do think her game could see the errors extracted from it by Vinci on this surface.
These two players haven't met since 2011 when Roberta Vinci won three matches against Lucie Hradecka including a pretty comfortable win on the clay courts after dropping the first set in that match. I think Vinci will get the better of the longer rallies in this one too and can grind her way to the win.
One concern would be if Hradecka brings her big game to the fore, but I think she would prefer to play someone like Vinci on the faster surfaces and the Italian comes through 64, 64.
Sara Errani - 5.5 games v Teliana Pereira: Like her compatriot, and Doubles partner, Roberta Vinci, Sara Errani has slipped in the Rankings over the 2014 season and is unlikely to recover her form to the extent of being a feature in the World's Top Ten. However, she remains a real threat on the clay courts with her style of play capable of extracting errors out of the best players on the Tour and I expect she will be too strong for home hope Teliana Pereira.
Pereira actually reached the Semi Final here in Rio last season so you have to imagine she will be confident in her chances, although her run came to a stunning halt by arguably the first really good player she met. The Brazilian can't work her way into this event with this match against the Number 1 Seed and Errani remains such a difficult test on the clay courts for the players on Tour that I expect her to win this one going away.
The biggest problem for Errani with a spread like this is her own serve which is limited to say the least and one that will give Pereira a chance to get on the front foot. However, Errani's defences can frustrate players to push for the lines too much and that is where Errani can get away with the serve that is little more than a way for her to start another long rally.
I do think the first set could be tight, but Errani will wear down Pereira in my opinion and come through 64, 62.
Dominic Thiem - 1.5 games v Joao Sousa: I don't think I am the only one who thinks Dominic Thiem has a very bright future on the Tour and I think he should be winning matches like this one against Joao Sousa. Sousa is a very good professional who will take every match very seriously and will put in a full effort which will see him beat players if they are not concentrating, but Thiem should be the better player as long as his focus is on the match.
It has been a difficult start to the 2015 season for Thiem who has only won one match so far, but he has all the tools to up that number very quickly. Of course it is also in contrast to Sousa who has played well in Montpellier and also reached the Third Round at the Australian Open.
Sousa doesn't have a very big game, but he works hard on the court with his defence a key part of his tactics and he can force mistakes from his opponents. However, he is working so hard to maintain his place in matches that he can sometimes lose a bit of gas in the tank and that is where Thiem should take over.
Their previous match came at the Australian Open over twelve months ago and it was a very tight match to be honest. This one looks like it might go three sets too, but I think Thiem can battle through to a 64, 36, 63 win.
David Ferrer - 5.5 games v Daniel Gimeno-Traver: David Ferrer was a little beat up at the Australian Open and the Spaniard continues to slip from the top of the men's game, although he is still capable of producing the tennis he has become known for. He did win the title in Doha, but the lay off could have an affect and give Daniel Gimeno-Traver a chance to perhaps spring a surprise.
And it would be a surprise if the veteran Spaniard who now produces his best tennis on the Challenger circuit is going to beat David Ferrer in this First Round match. The Gimeno-Traver serve is something of a weakness and he is going to have work very hard to keep holding and I think that pressure will eventually crack his chances in this one.
Ferrer is unlikely to take any point off and will make Gimeno-Traver really earn every point he is to win and it will be tough on the clay courts to maintain the rallies if Ferrer is on form. The last few years has seen Ferrer come off the lay off between the Australian Open and the Golden Swing in South America in impressive form as he has won titles in that situation. He has also made a fast start in those tournaments for the main part and Ferrer should be in a position to get clear of Gimeno-Traver in this one.
A tight first set is expected, but Ferrer should pull away for a 64, 62 win in this one.
MY PICKS: Ana Ivanovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberta Vinci - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Monday, 16 February 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (February 16th)
Heather Watson - 2.5 games v Kateryna Kozlova: There are plenty of matches scheduled for the tournament in Dubai on Monday as they complete the First Round and begin Second Round matches there. Despite the host of options, I have narrowed it down to two picks from the tournament on Monday.
The first of those is backing the British Number 1 Heather Watson to make a successful return to the WTA Tour after being absent since the Australian Open. It has been a good start to the 2015 season for Watson with a title won in Hobart and I think she will be a little too consistent for Kateryna Kozlova despite the impressive wins the Ukrainian has put together in the qualifiers to make the main draw.
Kozlova is younger of the two players, but she is yet to really make a breakthrough on the Tour and Watson did beat her at the French Open last season which should give her confidence to do the same in the First Round here. Of course being off the Tour makes it difficult for us to know what kind of form Watson is in compared to someone who is well accustomed to the conditions here, but this does look the kind of match where Watson's ability to get a lot of balls back in play aids her in the victory.
As long as Watson can do that, she might end up extracting errors from the Kozlova game and eventually pull away, although this going three sets won't be a surprise.
Mona Barthel - 2.5 games v Daniela Hantuchova: I have always been something of a Daniela Hantuchova fan so I was happy to see her win a title last week in Pattaya City- I say last week, but the actual Final was only played on Sunday and she won't have a lot of time to get used to the feel of the courts in Dubai.
That might play into the hands of Mona Barthel who beat Eugenie Bouchard last week in Antwerp and who has shown signs of being ready to move up the Rankings. She can still be a little inconsistent in her performances, but the German is going to be playing a tired Hantuchova who had a long Semi Final and Final and needed to exert a lot of mental effort into those matches.
Of course winning a title gives players a boost in confidence too, but you have to take this into consideration- it is a 14 plus hour flight from Pattaya City to Dubai with a stop and that is going to be incredibly tough for Hantuchova to deal with and produce her best tennis on Monday.
As long as Barthel doesn't give the match away with unforced errors and losing her way, she should progress with a fairly routine straight sets win.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 games v Andreas Haider-Maurer: There are only six places between these players in the World Rankings, but I think Albert Ramos-Vinolas is considerably better on the clay courts thank Andreas Haider-Maurer and I would expect that to be reflected on the scoreboard at the end of the match.
Tennis is all about levels and Haider-Maurer is someone who spends a lot more time on the Challenger circuit than Ramos-Vinolas, while it is the Spaniard who came through in straight sets when these two met towards the end of last season.
Ramos-Vinolas has to serve well to make life easier for himself and he should get the better of Haider-Maurer in the extended rallies as he is comfortable from the back of the court. This is the time of the season when Ramos-Vinolas can really start moving up the Rankings and his experience of playing and winning matches on the main Tour on the clay courts should give him the edge.
There are times I have seen Andreas Haider-Maurer play some big time tennis, but the Austrian is never far away from losing his mind on the court and inexplicably going through a sequence of errors. I do expect Ramos-Vinolas to be the more 'solid' player in this one and come through 64, 64.
Thiemo de Bakker - 3.5 games v Guilherme Clezar: Last week, I was beaten up a little in Sao Paulo, especially by one of the home hopes, but I am hoping that won't be the case with this pick from the tournament being played in Rio de Janeiro. Guilherme Clezar has been outplayed on the main Tour and he has lost his last five matches in events in Sao Paulo and Rio and I do believe Thiemo de Bakker will be too much for him to handle.
Don't misunderstand me though- de Bakker is far from the level that many had tipped for him earlier in his career and the big Dutchman is somewhat scratching a living on the Tour at the moment. He is Ranked outside of the top 100, but he did come through qualifiers here and in Sao Paulo last week so that winning momentum could prove key for him.
De Bakker does have huge serve which should keep Clezar at bay in this one and I think the scoreboard pressure will eventually snap the Brazilian and his belief will subsequently wane away. As long as de Bakker controls his emotions and does not allow the home fans to get under his skin, his quality should shine through against an opponent who is Ranked outside of the top 200 in the World Rankings.
While he is known for the serve, de Bakker has actually been returning fairly effectively too and it is for that reason that I believe he can come through with a 76, 63 win in this one.
Dustin Brown + 2.5 games v Ivo Karlovic: The night session at Delray Beach pits together Ivo Karlovic and Dustin Brown in what looks like being a big-serving shoot out with plenty of volleys for those who preferred tennis twenty years ago.
Neither Karlovic or Brown will look to take a backward step as they are very happy to serve and volley being first and second serves and there is every chance this match is decided by a point or two. As you can tell, I am expecting a tight match where both men should have an easy time holding for the majority of times and it will come down to one or two major points that can turn the match.
Out of the two players, there is little doubt that Dustin Brown is the flashier player- he is capable of rolling off three or four winners in return games, although his Number 97 World Ranking should let you know that a lot of the times his erratic play won't come off. However, Brown has beaten Karlovic in both previous matches which should give him confidence he can do the same here and he hasn't been in bad form to start 2015.
Neither has Karlovic so this match looks to be one that is going to be extremely tight with tie-breakers perhaps required to decide the sets. That makes the 2.5 games head start being given to Dustin Brown look awfully attractive against a limited returner like Karlovic and 'Dreddy' can keep this close, if not win outright, in the Monday evening battle.
Madison Brengle - 3.5 games v Ana Bogdan: Madison Brengle has done a lot of winning to open the 2015 season and the American can continue her positive start to the season in this First Round match played in Rio de Janeiro. She comes up against a qualifier in Ana Bogdan and anyone who does put together a couple of wins to make the main draw will be a danger, but I do think Brengle will be just a little too good for her.
Bogdan did reach the Final in a lower level tournament in Glasgow earlier this month, but she has struggled to take her form onto the main Tour and now faces a very confident player who has also received a clean bill of health in the last few months.
The American had a cancer scare last year and was only given the go-ahead to travel to Australia a couple of weeks before the season began. She has since reached a career-high Ranking of 45 and it is clear that Brengle has used that scare in a positive manner to enjoy herself on the court, which has also brought success.
You would think she is going to be a little too battle-hardened for Bogdan in this one, although this is Brengle's first match on the clay courts since her failure to qualify for the French Open last May. However, confidence should be at an all-time high for Brengle and I like her to come through 63, 75.
MY PICKS: Heather Watson - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mona Barthel - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Thiemo de Bakker - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Dustin Brown + 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Brengle - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
February 9-15 Daily Picks Final: 13-11, + 1.60 Units (48 Units Staked, + 3.33% Yield)
Season 2015: + 19.47 Units (201 Units Staked, + 9.69% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
The first of those is backing the British Number 1 Heather Watson to make a successful return to the WTA Tour after being absent since the Australian Open. It has been a good start to the 2015 season for Watson with a title won in Hobart and I think she will be a little too consistent for Kateryna Kozlova despite the impressive wins the Ukrainian has put together in the qualifiers to make the main draw.
Kozlova is younger of the two players, but she is yet to really make a breakthrough on the Tour and Watson did beat her at the French Open last season which should give her confidence to do the same in the First Round here. Of course being off the Tour makes it difficult for us to know what kind of form Watson is in compared to someone who is well accustomed to the conditions here, but this does look the kind of match where Watson's ability to get a lot of balls back in play aids her in the victory.
As long as Watson can do that, she might end up extracting errors from the Kozlova game and eventually pull away, although this going three sets won't be a surprise.
Mona Barthel - 2.5 games v Daniela Hantuchova: I have always been something of a Daniela Hantuchova fan so I was happy to see her win a title last week in Pattaya City- I say last week, but the actual Final was only played on Sunday and she won't have a lot of time to get used to the feel of the courts in Dubai.
That might play into the hands of Mona Barthel who beat Eugenie Bouchard last week in Antwerp and who has shown signs of being ready to move up the Rankings. She can still be a little inconsistent in her performances, but the German is going to be playing a tired Hantuchova who had a long Semi Final and Final and needed to exert a lot of mental effort into those matches.
Of course winning a title gives players a boost in confidence too, but you have to take this into consideration- it is a 14 plus hour flight from Pattaya City to Dubai with a stop and that is going to be incredibly tough for Hantuchova to deal with and produce her best tennis on Monday.
As long as Barthel doesn't give the match away with unforced errors and losing her way, she should progress with a fairly routine straight sets win.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 games v Andreas Haider-Maurer: There are only six places between these players in the World Rankings, but I think Albert Ramos-Vinolas is considerably better on the clay courts thank Andreas Haider-Maurer and I would expect that to be reflected on the scoreboard at the end of the match.
Tennis is all about levels and Haider-Maurer is someone who spends a lot more time on the Challenger circuit than Ramos-Vinolas, while it is the Spaniard who came through in straight sets when these two met towards the end of last season.
Ramos-Vinolas has to serve well to make life easier for himself and he should get the better of Haider-Maurer in the extended rallies as he is comfortable from the back of the court. This is the time of the season when Ramos-Vinolas can really start moving up the Rankings and his experience of playing and winning matches on the main Tour on the clay courts should give him the edge.
There are times I have seen Andreas Haider-Maurer play some big time tennis, but the Austrian is never far away from losing his mind on the court and inexplicably going through a sequence of errors. I do expect Ramos-Vinolas to be the more 'solid' player in this one and come through 64, 64.
Thiemo de Bakker - 3.5 games v Guilherme Clezar: Last week, I was beaten up a little in Sao Paulo, especially by one of the home hopes, but I am hoping that won't be the case with this pick from the tournament being played in Rio de Janeiro. Guilherme Clezar has been outplayed on the main Tour and he has lost his last five matches in events in Sao Paulo and Rio and I do believe Thiemo de Bakker will be too much for him to handle.
Don't misunderstand me though- de Bakker is far from the level that many had tipped for him earlier in his career and the big Dutchman is somewhat scratching a living on the Tour at the moment. He is Ranked outside of the top 100, but he did come through qualifiers here and in Sao Paulo last week so that winning momentum could prove key for him.
De Bakker does have huge serve which should keep Clezar at bay in this one and I think the scoreboard pressure will eventually snap the Brazilian and his belief will subsequently wane away. As long as de Bakker controls his emotions and does not allow the home fans to get under his skin, his quality should shine through against an opponent who is Ranked outside of the top 200 in the World Rankings.
While he is known for the serve, de Bakker has actually been returning fairly effectively too and it is for that reason that I believe he can come through with a 76, 63 win in this one.
Dustin Brown + 2.5 games v Ivo Karlovic: The night session at Delray Beach pits together Ivo Karlovic and Dustin Brown in what looks like being a big-serving shoot out with plenty of volleys for those who preferred tennis twenty years ago.
Neither Karlovic or Brown will look to take a backward step as they are very happy to serve and volley being first and second serves and there is every chance this match is decided by a point or two. As you can tell, I am expecting a tight match where both men should have an easy time holding for the majority of times and it will come down to one or two major points that can turn the match.
Out of the two players, there is little doubt that Dustin Brown is the flashier player- he is capable of rolling off three or four winners in return games, although his Number 97 World Ranking should let you know that a lot of the times his erratic play won't come off. However, Brown has beaten Karlovic in both previous matches which should give him confidence he can do the same here and he hasn't been in bad form to start 2015.
Neither has Karlovic so this match looks to be one that is going to be extremely tight with tie-breakers perhaps required to decide the sets. That makes the 2.5 games head start being given to Dustin Brown look awfully attractive against a limited returner like Karlovic and 'Dreddy' can keep this close, if not win outright, in the Monday evening battle.
Madison Brengle - 3.5 games v Ana Bogdan: Madison Brengle has done a lot of winning to open the 2015 season and the American can continue her positive start to the season in this First Round match played in Rio de Janeiro. She comes up against a qualifier in Ana Bogdan and anyone who does put together a couple of wins to make the main draw will be a danger, but I do think Brengle will be just a little too good for her.
Bogdan did reach the Final in a lower level tournament in Glasgow earlier this month, but she has struggled to take her form onto the main Tour and now faces a very confident player who has also received a clean bill of health in the last few months.
The American had a cancer scare last year and was only given the go-ahead to travel to Australia a couple of weeks before the season began. She has since reached a career-high Ranking of 45 and it is clear that Brengle has used that scare in a positive manner to enjoy herself on the court, which has also brought success.
You would think she is going to be a little too battle-hardened for Bogdan in this one, although this is Brengle's first match on the clay courts since her failure to qualify for the French Open last May. However, confidence should be at an all-time high for Brengle and I like her to come through 63, 75.
MY PICKS: Heather Watson - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mona Barthel - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Thiemo de Bakker - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Dustin Brown + 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Brengle - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
February 9-15 Daily Picks Final: 13-11, + 1.60 Units (48 Units Staked, + 3.33% Yield)
Season 2015: + 19.47 Units (201 Units Staked, + 9.69% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Sunday, 15 February 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (February 15th)
The Finals from the tournaments of last week will be played on Sunday, but the events from next week have also begun in Dubai as the WTA Tour makes a stop there this week before the ATP comes to the area in seven days time.
The Final in Dubai is always held on a Saturday so the event actually starts on Sunday rather than the usual Monday and there are plenty of matches scheduled for the opening day of the tournament as the main draw gets going.
Stan Wawrinka v Tomas Berdych: The Final in Rotterdam will be competed by the World Number 7 and World Number 8 as Tomas Berdych gets set to take on Stan Wawrinka and try and snap a 5 match losing run against the Swiss Number 2.
Both players have put together a solid week and will be confident they can take home the title, although the mental edge has to be with Wawrinka considering his recent wins over Berdych. Playing the second Semi Final is tough, especially as Wawrinka was facing someone like Milos Raonic where concentration has to be kept at all times, but at least it wasn't a physical match so he should be ready to go.
Wawrinka does play with a little extra aggression than Berdych, particularly off the backhand and that could be a major reason that he is able to beat this opponent. He can also get a lot of deep, chipped balls back into play off the service return and I do think Wawrinka is the better player from the back of the court.
I think Berdych can be the more steady player, but Wawrinka is a very good match player these days and I expect he will know when to be aggressive and when to take a step back and force Berdych to play. The losing run shouldn't have a negative effect on Berdych considering he recently snapped a long losing run against Rafael Nadal and he also seems very confident in what Dani Vallverdu is doing as his new Coach. However, I think Wawrinka comes through in three sets and picks up his second title of the season while giving himself a boost in Ranking points.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.5 games v Kaia Kanepi: Both of these players have enjoyed a few weeks off the Tour, but they have to return to business in Dubai as Svetlana Kuznetsova meets Kaia Kanepi in a tough First Round match.
Neither player has really started 2015 in the fashion they would have liked, although I do think Svetlana Kuznetsova can ride the momentum from her performance for Russia in the Fed Cup when she beat Agnieszka Radwanska in three sets in Poland.
That is an impressive result against a top 10 player and Kuznetsova has had success in Dubai in the past so I do think she can come though against Kanepi who has spent time off the Tour recovering from an injury. She does have a big game that can be very dangerous when she puts it all together, but the lack of tennis might be a hindrance to her against a very good opponent like Kuznetsova.
The layers believe this will be close and it might go three sets, but I like the Russian to come through 63, 46, 63.
Flavia Pennetta - 2.5 games v Julia Goerges: Flavia Pennetta hasn't played on the Tour since the Australian Open and she faces a Lucky Loser in Julia Goerges so this should be a tougher match for her than what I would normally think. As much as Goerges is a player that can take the racquet out of an opponent's hands, the German has struggled for consistency over the last three seasons and I think someone like Pennetta would be too solid for her.
The first match back after a lay-off is difficult to find rhythm, but Pennetta reached the Quarter Final here twelve months ago and I think she will like the conditions. The Italian has a decent serve, although she doesn't always protect it that well, but I do believe she will have joy against the Goerges serve too.
As heavy as Goerges likes hitting the ball, Pennetta can return fire and seems to be the more consistent performer, even if the early 2015 results have actually been better for Goerges. As long as Pennetta remains focused, even when Goerges gets hot and hits a few winners, the Italian should be able to turn the match around and move into the Second Round.
This is another match that could potentially go the full three sets, but I like Flavia Pennetta to come through 63, 36, 63.
MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Flavia Pennetta - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 12-11, - 0.60 Units (46 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
The Final in Dubai is always held on a Saturday so the event actually starts on Sunday rather than the usual Monday and there are plenty of matches scheduled for the opening day of the tournament as the main draw gets going.
Stan Wawrinka v Tomas Berdych: The Final in Rotterdam will be competed by the World Number 7 and World Number 8 as Tomas Berdych gets set to take on Stan Wawrinka and try and snap a 5 match losing run against the Swiss Number 2.
Both players have put together a solid week and will be confident they can take home the title, although the mental edge has to be with Wawrinka considering his recent wins over Berdych. Playing the second Semi Final is tough, especially as Wawrinka was facing someone like Milos Raonic where concentration has to be kept at all times, but at least it wasn't a physical match so he should be ready to go.
Wawrinka does play with a little extra aggression than Berdych, particularly off the backhand and that could be a major reason that he is able to beat this opponent. He can also get a lot of deep, chipped balls back into play off the service return and I do think Wawrinka is the better player from the back of the court.
I think Berdych can be the more steady player, but Wawrinka is a very good match player these days and I expect he will know when to be aggressive and when to take a step back and force Berdych to play. The losing run shouldn't have a negative effect on Berdych considering he recently snapped a long losing run against Rafael Nadal and he also seems very confident in what Dani Vallverdu is doing as his new Coach. However, I think Wawrinka comes through in three sets and picks up his second title of the season while giving himself a boost in Ranking points.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.5 games v Kaia Kanepi: Both of these players have enjoyed a few weeks off the Tour, but they have to return to business in Dubai as Svetlana Kuznetsova meets Kaia Kanepi in a tough First Round match.
Neither player has really started 2015 in the fashion they would have liked, although I do think Svetlana Kuznetsova can ride the momentum from her performance for Russia in the Fed Cup when she beat Agnieszka Radwanska in three sets in Poland.
That is an impressive result against a top 10 player and Kuznetsova has had success in Dubai in the past so I do think she can come though against Kanepi who has spent time off the Tour recovering from an injury. She does have a big game that can be very dangerous when she puts it all together, but the lack of tennis might be a hindrance to her against a very good opponent like Kuznetsova.
The layers believe this will be close and it might go three sets, but I like the Russian to come through 63, 46, 63.
Flavia Pennetta - 2.5 games v Julia Goerges: Flavia Pennetta hasn't played on the Tour since the Australian Open and she faces a Lucky Loser in Julia Goerges so this should be a tougher match for her than what I would normally think. As much as Goerges is a player that can take the racquet out of an opponent's hands, the German has struggled for consistency over the last three seasons and I think someone like Pennetta would be too solid for her.
The first match back after a lay-off is difficult to find rhythm, but Pennetta reached the Quarter Final here twelve months ago and I think she will like the conditions. The Italian has a decent serve, although she doesn't always protect it that well, but I do believe she will have joy against the Goerges serve too.
As heavy as Goerges likes hitting the ball, Pennetta can return fire and seems to be the more consistent performer, even if the early 2015 results have actually been better for Goerges. As long as Pennetta remains focused, even when Goerges gets hot and hits a few winners, the Italian should be able to turn the match around and move into the Second Round.
This is another match that could potentially go the full three sets, but I like Flavia Pennetta to come through 63, 36, 63.
MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Flavia Pennetta - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 12-11, - 0.60 Units (46 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Saturday, 14 February 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (February 14th)
Friday started off so well, but some of the misses for the picks have been disheartening to say the least- Fabio Fognini, Dusan Lajovic and Leonardo Mayer continued my poor picking from the tournament in Sao Paulo, but the annoying part is how Fognini and Mayer blew their chance to win their respective matches.
There are just some weeks when players who are pretty poor for most of the year, for example Joao Souza, can suddenly produce under immense pressure which belays the fact that they are not in the World top 100. If Souza could produce what he has in the last couple of matches on a regular basis, he would be far higher than his 110 World Ranking to say the least!
You can only be frustrated- John Isner was so superior to Sam Querrey in a tight match, yet somehow loses in two tie-breakers, while Kei Nishikori just didn't play well enough in his match. It just means this week looks fairly neutral, but I am unimpressed with the lack of fortune that has gone my way.
I don't know whether I should blame someone else- another site has requested a few of my picks and every one I have sent across has lost!! What is that about?!! The worst of that is how players have lost matches, for example Fabio Fognini was 5-2 up in the second set against Santiago Giraldo and then suddenly goes and loses 5 games in a row.
Of course it is tongue in cheek to suggest some sort of vortex is affecting the picks as soon as I send them across to the other site, but what are the chances in a week where I have more winners than losers that I would have gone 1-6 with picks I have sent to them?!
Semi Final time for all the tournaments this week and there isn't a familiar feel to the tournaments in Sao Paulo and Memphis with new names like Luka Vanni and Joao Souza making an impact on the main Tour. In Memphis it is Donald Young that is perhaps a surprising name, but these things can happen in a long season on the Tour when some of the lesser lights find inspiration to make a run.
The key is to try and do that consistently, but I won't be holding my breath for any of those players named to do that from what I have seen this week or before that. You can ride your luck for only so long and I have seen players like James Ward or Alex Bogdanovic perform wonderfully well at Queens in the past but fail to back that up by becoming a regular feature on the Tour.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: It has been a very good week for both Karolina Pliskova and Carla Suarez Navarro already, but the chance to reach the Final and grab some more vital Ranking points could make this a slightly tense affair.
I like Pliskova's chances of winning this match because of her extra power, something that Suarez Navarro has struggled against in the past and that will especially be a problem if the Spaniard continues to offer up as many break point opportunities as she has been.
Pliskova will be broken, but she has a more consistent serve of the two and that can pay off on the indoor hard courts which can play a bit quicker. There are times when the Czech player seems to get really down on herself, although those are not as often as they used to be, and she has to control her emotions against someone like Suarez Navarro who can get a lot of balls back in play.
As long as she maintains that control of her emotions, Pliskova should prove a little too strong and come through 63, 46, 63.
Stan Wawrinka v Milos Raonic: Both of these players have had to come through some difficult moments in Rotterdam this week, but they have made their Seeds count by meeting in the Semi Final as expected.
Both Stan Wawrinka and Milos Raonic have needed to go the distance in two of their three wins this week, but I do think the Swiss player has looked the more confident in his matches and can use that to continue his head to head dominance of Raonic.
Wawrinka has won all three previous matches against Raonic, and he would have had some practice dealing with a big server in his win over Gilles Muller on Friday. However, Wawrinka has to serve better than he did in the second set in that win over Muller as he gave a limited returner too many chances and can't afford to go down a break to someone like Raonic.
Playing on the indoor hard courts will give Raonic a chance to impose himself with his serve, but Wawrinka showed at the World Tour Finals that he is very comfortable on the surface himself. It will be tight with a couple of points here and there making the difference, but I like Wawrinka to win.
MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 11-10, - 0.06 Units (42 Units Staked, - 0.1% Yield)
There are just some weeks when players who are pretty poor for most of the year, for example Joao Souza, can suddenly produce under immense pressure which belays the fact that they are not in the World top 100. If Souza could produce what he has in the last couple of matches on a regular basis, he would be far higher than his 110 World Ranking to say the least!
You can only be frustrated- John Isner was so superior to Sam Querrey in a tight match, yet somehow loses in two tie-breakers, while Kei Nishikori just didn't play well enough in his match. It just means this week looks fairly neutral, but I am unimpressed with the lack of fortune that has gone my way.
I don't know whether I should blame someone else- another site has requested a few of my picks and every one I have sent across has lost!! What is that about?!! The worst of that is how players have lost matches, for example Fabio Fognini was 5-2 up in the second set against Santiago Giraldo and then suddenly goes and loses 5 games in a row.
Of course it is tongue in cheek to suggest some sort of vortex is affecting the picks as soon as I send them across to the other site, but what are the chances in a week where I have more winners than losers that I would have gone 1-6 with picks I have sent to them?!
Semi Final time for all the tournaments this week and there isn't a familiar feel to the tournaments in Sao Paulo and Memphis with new names like Luka Vanni and Joao Souza making an impact on the main Tour. In Memphis it is Donald Young that is perhaps a surprising name, but these things can happen in a long season on the Tour when some of the lesser lights find inspiration to make a run.
The key is to try and do that consistently, but I won't be holding my breath for any of those players named to do that from what I have seen this week or before that. You can ride your luck for only so long and I have seen players like James Ward or Alex Bogdanovic perform wonderfully well at Queens in the past but fail to back that up by becoming a regular feature on the Tour.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: It has been a very good week for both Karolina Pliskova and Carla Suarez Navarro already, but the chance to reach the Final and grab some more vital Ranking points could make this a slightly tense affair.
I like Pliskova's chances of winning this match because of her extra power, something that Suarez Navarro has struggled against in the past and that will especially be a problem if the Spaniard continues to offer up as many break point opportunities as she has been.
Pliskova will be broken, but she has a more consistent serve of the two and that can pay off on the indoor hard courts which can play a bit quicker. There are times when the Czech player seems to get really down on herself, although those are not as often as they used to be, and she has to control her emotions against someone like Suarez Navarro who can get a lot of balls back in play.
As long as she maintains that control of her emotions, Pliskova should prove a little too strong and come through 63, 46, 63.
Stan Wawrinka v Milos Raonic: Both of these players have had to come through some difficult moments in Rotterdam this week, but they have made their Seeds count by meeting in the Semi Final as expected.
Both Stan Wawrinka and Milos Raonic have needed to go the distance in two of their three wins this week, but I do think the Swiss player has looked the more confident in his matches and can use that to continue his head to head dominance of Raonic.
Wawrinka has won all three previous matches against Raonic, and he would have had some practice dealing with a big server in his win over Gilles Muller on Friday. However, Wawrinka has to serve better than he did in the second set in that win over Muller as he gave a limited returner too many chances and can't afford to go down a break to someone like Raonic.
Playing on the indoor hard courts will give Raonic a chance to impose himself with his serve, but Wawrinka showed at the World Tour Finals that he is very comfortable on the surface himself. It will be tight with a couple of points here and there making the difference, but I like Wawrinka to win.
MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 11-10, - 0.06 Units (42 Units Staked, - 0.1% Yield)
Weekend Football Picks 2015 (February 14-16)
Yeah I know- none of you lot are going to be watching any of the football on Saturday because of Valentine's Day right?
To be fair, there isn't really the most exciting slate of games on offer for viewers because of the FA Cup Fifth Round taking centre stage, even if both live games should be decent enough on Saturday. The big names will all be expected to move through to the Sixth Round, although perhaps not at the first time of asking.
This midweek saw a full Premier League schedule taking place and a late Chelsea winner means they are still very much in pole position when it comes to sorting out the destination of the title this season. Manchester City did secure a vital win at Stoke City and have both Yaya Toure and Wilfried Bony returning from the African Cup of Nations before they take the field again, but 7 points is going to be tough to make up now the games are beginning to run down.
I think Manchester City are still capable of winning the title, but they have the harder set of fixtures and would likely need Chelsea to have a deep run in the Champions League and themselves to perhaps not. According to their fan base, the Champions League isn't a big concern and not ahead of the Premier League in a list of priorities, but I have a feeling the owners won't be thinking like that and Manuel Pellegrini needs to find a way to beat Barcelona in the Second Round of the Champions League later this month.
The relegation battle also took another big twist after Queens Park Rangers finally managed to win a game away from home at Sunderland, a result that saw Chris Ramsey being given the managerial reins until the end of the season. That win actually pushed QPR out of the bottom three and sent Aston Villa into those positions, a situation that resulted in Paul Lambert being fired and Tim Sherwood the favourite to take over at about the tenth club this season.
It was no surprise that Aston Villa pulled the trigger on Lambert's sacking because they have been on a downward spiral for some time- I have said before that the mental pressure of actually being in the bottom three at this stage of the season is very tough to overcome, especially when you haven't been in that spot all season, and it has panicked the owner Randy Lerner. I'd say rightly so again because I don't think Lambert was getting any response from his Aston Villa players and the next decision is going to be a huge one to prevent Villa falling into the Championship.
The bottom of the table is very tight is you discount Leicester City for now, whose own managerial situation is bordering on the comedic line. Nigel Pearson was supposedly sacked last weekend, but reinstated by another member of the board and Leicester look like they are going to be relegated as they are now 5 points from safety.
However, there are only 6 points separating Everton in 12th and Burnley in 19th, although Burnley have a horrendous fixture list upcoming, and this looks like a battle that has plenty of life left in it.
The bottom of the table is tight, but the race for the Champions League places figures to be just as much of a battle with the results over the last eight days. Liverpool are back in contention thanks to a late Mario Balotelli winner against Tottenham Hotspur at Anfield on Tuesday night, while neither Manchester United or Southampton look secure in 3rd and 4th place after earning 4 points from a possible 6 over the last week.
It is the performances that might be more of a worry as Manchester United continue to struggle to impose themselves in games and Southampton are finding it tough to win home games. With Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal and Liverpool right behind, 5 points separate these five teams and it figures to be another fight that likely won't be settled until the final month of the season.
West Brom v West Ham United Pick: The Fifth Round of the FA Cup means teams are only two games away from playing at Wembley Stadium thanks to the continued insistence of the FA that the Semi Finals are to be played in the national stadium. That means the likes of West Brom and West Ham United have to feel they have a great chance of doing that, especially with the likes of Manchester City and Chelsea out of the competition and I think both Tony Pulis and Sam Allardyce will know the importance of this game.
Tony Pulis actually took Stoke City to the Final in 2011, but his priority since coming in as the new manager at The Hawthornes is to make sure that West Brom remain a Premier League side. A 2-0 win over Swansea during the week has boosted their survival hopes, but Queens Park Rangers and Hull City both won so West Brom won't want a replay in this competition, while Pulis may opt to make changes.
On the other hand, Allardyce has made it clear that he wants a strong FA Cup run and will likely name a very strong line up, although West Ham United miss Andy Carroll for the rest of the season. They still have enough attacking talent to maintain the form that has seen them up in 8th place in the Premier League and they can concentrate fully on this game.
West Ham did have to play with ten men for a long time in the goalless draw at Southampton during the week and that might have put a few tired legs amongst the squad, especially with an early Saturday morning kick off to contend with. Whether that makes a difference will be told on the pitch, but I do think West Ham can win for the second time here this season, especially as they are a side that does usually create chances no matter where they play this campaign.
I do have to say that Pulis has made West Brom a tougher team to play against, but he might think about making a few too many changes that gives West Ham the edge in this tie and they have to be worth a small interest to win.
Blackburn Rovers v Stoke City Pick: Mark Hughes had plenty of success as a player in the FA Cup with Manchester United and Chelsea and he won't be taking this competition lightly as manager of Stoke City as he looks to emulate what Tony Pulis did in 2011.
That season saw Stoke City reach the Final of the FA Cup before finding Yaya Toure and Manchester City a little too good and it has taken the best teams in England to knock them out of the FA Cup in recent seasons. Hughes admitted that his Stoke team's best chances of winning silverware comes in the two domestic Cup competitions and that they can't overlook that, especially with a strong enough record in the Premier League to think they will avoid the drop to the Championship.
Stoke are an established Premier League team so they should think about winning silverware, but it won't be easy at Ewood Park where Blackburn Rovers have scored plenty of goals and dismissed Swansea in the Fourth Round. However, they were aided by a 7th minute sending off of Kyle Bartley and you have to believe that Stoke City won't be in such a disadvantageous position.
There is no doubt that the likes of Jordan Rhodes and Rudy Gestede provide a real threat for Blackburn, and in previous years I would certainly look at a game like this and wonder about the chances of an upset. However, Stoke have actually improved away from the Brittania Stadium markedly this season and will have the pace in the forward positions to give Blackburn plenty to think about if they push too far forward and I think I will have a small interest in Stoke getting this done at the first time of asking.
Derby County v Reading Pick: Steve McClaren might not see the FA Cup as the number one priority for Derby County this season, but being two games away from Wembley and having a home draw at this stage of the competition is tough to ignore. He has made changes to his team in the last couple of Rounds, but you have to feel that McClaren picks as strong a team as possible to make sure Derby County move into the Sixth Round without needing a replay.
A home draw is all Derby could have hoped for at this stage, especially as they have been given a draw against one of the sides below them in the League pyramid. However, Reading have been an improving side under Steve Clarke and really have nothing but the FA Cup to play for the rest of the way.
They have already won at Huddersfield Town and Cardiff City in the Cup this season, but neither of those sides are of the level of Derby County and this is going to be a tough game for Reading. Even getting the game back to the Majedski Stadium would have to be seen as an achievement for Reading, but that might also be beyond them considering how well Derby have played at the iPro Stadium.
Derby have already beaten Reading here in the other Cup competition this season and also crushed them away from home in the League, both times without conceding a goal. I expect they will take this game seriously enough to move through to the last eight and provide another boost in confidence to take into their next League games.
Crystal Palace v Liverpool Pick: This looks a fascinating Fifth Round tie and is the tie of the Round in the FA Cup this weekend as Crystal Palace host Liverpool. The winner of the tie will certainly feel they have every chance of going all the way in the competition and I expect both Alan Pardew and Brendan Rodgers to put a lot of effort into helping their sides win this at the first time of asking.
Of the two managers, Pardew has to feel his Crystal Palace team will have their best opportunity to beat Liverpool at home, while Rodgers won't want to add to an already congested fixture list for Liverpool by having to play a replay at Anfield in two weeks time.
Pardew will look to offer his own experiences to the Crystal Palace players having been taken into the fans' hearts with the extra time winning goal against Liverpool in the FA Cup Semi Final in 1990. That has never been forgotten by the fans in the classic 4-3 win for Crystal Palace, although it will be a big task for his team to match that feat. As well as Crystal Palace have played since Pardew came in, they are facing an in-form Liverpool side and matching the win from earlier this season won't come easy.
I do like the pace that Palace have in the forward positions and they do create chances at home, but defensively there are still some issues for the home team that the likes of Daniel Sturridge, Raheem Sterling and Phillipe Coutinho will look to exploit.
Goals have not been much of a problem for Liverpool of late with the amount of chances they create, but they do look a short price considering they have failed to win any of their last 6 visits to Selhurst Park. The fact is that Crystal Palace have won 4 of those 6 games, including earlier this season, so the short prices on Liverpool don't look attractive enough.
Both teams should create their chances and I think both teams can score- I don't expect either manager to take a backward step in this game as they look to move into the Sixth Round at the first time of asking and so backing at least three goals from this game looks the call. The last 3 games between Crystal Palace and Liverpool at Selhurst Park have produced a combined 12 goals and I think the price is good enough.
Bradford City v Sunderland Pick: The way that Bradford City stormed back to beat Chelsea has to raise the questions as to what they are doing outside of the top six in League One and that might come down to their 6 home losses from 15 League games played at Valley Parade this season. That would be a concern for them in trying to back up the win over Chelsea by beating another Premier League side, although they won't have a better chance against a Sunderland team that is going to be shell-shocked by their home loss against Queens Park Rangers.
I expect Gus Poyet will still play a strong team in this one despite his side being dragged back down to the relegation dogfight in the Premier League following that loss, and that quality should give them the edge in the match. However, I think Sunderland are going to be under a lot of pressure in this one and the expectation of winning might play into their minds too.
Bradford City are a lively outsider in this one and they will certainly believe they have the beating of Sunderland despite being a lot lower than them in the League pyramid. Over the last couple of years, Phil Parkinson has found the right formula to take down Premier League teams in Cup competitions, although it is going to be tough for them against a usually solid Sunderland team.
The odds against quotes on Sunderland winning this game does look like it could be a big price in hindsight, but I think this is going to be a very difficult tie for them. It may just need Sunderland to take this back to the Stadium of Light to get the job done and I think the draw is worth a small interest.
Arsenal v Middlesbrough Pick: Aitor Karanka was a strange appointment by Middlesbrough last season, but the former Real Madrid defender and Assistant Manager is exceeding expectations in his first full year at the helm at the Riverside Stadium. There is plenty of football still to be played, but Middlesbrough lead the Championship and have already come away from Manchester City with a 0-2 FA Cup win.
That should be enough to focus Arsenal on the task at hand in this Fifth Round tie despite being the favourites to win the FA Cup for the second successive season after the exits of Manchester City and Chelsea. A home draw seems to have come at the right moment of the season with plenty of days between games and so Arsene Wenger can play as strong a team as he likes.
It should be the key for Arsenal to progress at the first time of asking and I do think their pace is going to be an issue for Middlesbrough to deal with. As well as they did in beating Manchester City, it took an inspired performance from Tomas Mejias, the second choice goalkeeper, to keep Middlesbrough from being a couple of goals down by half time in that game.
If Arsenal are a little more clinical than Manchester City were that day last month, I would expect the Gunners to have too much firepower for the Championship leaders. Going ahead will only open the door for the speedy counter-attacks that makes Arsenal so dangerous, although the concern would be if they play as poorly defensively as they did against Leicester City.
However, Aitor Karanka has used his full squad in the FA Cup this season, even in the game at the Etihad Stadium, and I would be surprised if Middlesbrough can ride their luck for a second consecutive Round. Confidence is high which can help teams make their own luck, but Arsenal should be too strong and I like them to come through with a couple of goals separating the sides at least.
Preston North End v Manchester United Pick: This looks like an FA Cup tie that is going to be far from easy for Manchester United if you consider the way they had to huff and puff in their away games at Yeovil Town and Cambridge United in the last two Rounds of the competition. Both of those games saw Manchester United have to ride out a storm before coming through and I expect Preston North End to make things very awkward for Louis Van Gaal's men on Monday evening.
The likes of Kevin Davies will thrive on long balls that will look to unsettle the Manchester United back line, while Joe Garner has been a consistent threat at the lower level and will want to prove what he is capable of against Premier League opposition.
Both will pose their problems, but Manchester United should at least feel a little easier at Deepdale than they did at Huish Park and the Abbey Stadium because the facilities are better here. The pitch isn't as constricted as it was at Yeovil Town and Cambridge United and that should at least allow the quality players to show what they can do.
The problem has been that those 'quality' players have been struggling for Manchester United in recent weeks to really impose themselves and I expect that might be the case on Monday too. It might take them a little while to get to grips with what Preston North End are producing and the difference in quality may not show up until the second half.
That has happened in both previous FA Cup ties for Manchester United with the second half away performances being better than the first half as their host have tired. Against Yeovil Town it proved to be the difference maker in a 0-2 win, but Cambridge United managed to hold out and force the replay.
Preston are better than both of those teams, so I would expect they are going to perhaps last a little longer than those teams too. However, I do think the Manchester United quality can come through without needing to take this game back to Old Trafford and I think backing this game to be a draw at half time before Manchester United win could pay dividends.
MY PICKS: West Ham United @ 3.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Stoke City @ 2.50 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Derby County @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bradford City-Sunderland Draw @ 3.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.38 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Draw HT-Manchester United FT @ 4.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
February Update: 4-9, - 10.24 Units (25 Units Staked, - 40.96% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 80-120-2, - 29.42 Units (346 Units Staked, - 8.50% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
To be fair, there isn't really the most exciting slate of games on offer for viewers because of the FA Cup Fifth Round taking centre stage, even if both live games should be decent enough on Saturday. The big names will all be expected to move through to the Sixth Round, although perhaps not at the first time of asking.
This midweek saw a full Premier League schedule taking place and a late Chelsea winner means they are still very much in pole position when it comes to sorting out the destination of the title this season. Manchester City did secure a vital win at Stoke City and have both Yaya Toure and Wilfried Bony returning from the African Cup of Nations before they take the field again, but 7 points is going to be tough to make up now the games are beginning to run down.
I think Manchester City are still capable of winning the title, but they have the harder set of fixtures and would likely need Chelsea to have a deep run in the Champions League and themselves to perhaps not. According to their fan base, the Champions League isn't a big concern and not ahead of the Premier League in a list of priorities, but I have a feeling the owners won't be thinking like that and Manuel Pellegrini needs to find a way to beat Barcelona in the Second Round of the Champions League later this month.
The relegation battle also took another big twist after Queens Park Rangers finally managed to win a game away from home at Sunderland, a result that saw Chris Ramsey being given the managerial reins until the end of the season. That win actually pushed QPR out of the bottom three and sent Aston Villa into those positions, a situation that resulted in Paul Lambert being fired and Tim Sherwood the favourite to take over at about the tenth club this season.
It was no surprise that Aston Villa pulled the trigger on Lambert's sacking because they have been on a downward spiral for some time- I have said before that the mental pressure of actually being in the bottom three at this stage of the season is very tough to overcome, especially when you haven't been in that spot all season, and it has panicked the owner Randy Lerner. I'd say rightly so again because I don't think Lambert was getting any response from his Aston Villa players and the next decision is going to be a huge one to prevent Villa falling into the Championship.
The bottom of the table is very tight is you discount Leicester City for now, whose own managerial situation is bordering on the comedic line. Nigel Pearson was supposedly sacked last weekend, but reinstated by another member of the board and Leicester look like they are going to be relegated as they are now 5 points from safety.
However, there are only 6 points separating Everton in 12th and Burnley in 19th, although Burnley have a horrendous fixture list upcoming, and this looks like a battle that has plenty of life left in it.
The bottom of the table is tight, but the race for the Champions League places figures to be just as much of a battle with the results over the last eight days. Liverpool are back in contention thanks to a late Mario Balotelli winner against Tottenham Hotspur at Anfield on Tuesday night, while neither Manchester United or Southampton look secure in 3rd and 4th place after earning 4 points from a possible 6 over the last week.
It is the performances that might be more of a worry as Manchester United continue to struggle to impose themselves in games and Southampton are finding it tough to win home games. With Tottenham Hotspur, Arsenal and Liverpool right behind, 5 points separate these five teams and it figures to be another fight that likely won't be settled until the final month of the season.
West Brom v West Ham United Pick: The Fifth Round of the FA Cup means teams are only two games away from playing at Wembley Stadium thanks to the continued insistence of the FA that the Semi Finals are to be played in the national stadium. That means the likes of West Brom and West Ham United have to feel they have a great chance of doing that, especially with the likes of Manchester City and Chelsea out of the competition and I think both Tony Pulis and Sam Allardyce will know the importance of this game.
Tony Pulis actually took Stoke City to the Final in 2011, but his priority since coming in as the new manager at The Hawthornes is to make sure that West Brom remain a Premier League side. A 2-0 win over Swansea during the week has boosted their survival hopes, but Queens Park Rangers and Hull City both won so West Brom won't want a replay in this competition, while Pulis may opt to make changes.
On the other hand, Allardyce has made it clear that he wants a strong FA Cup run and will likely name a very strong line up, although West Ham United miss Andy Carroll for the rest of the season. They still have enough attacking talent to maintain the form that has seen them up in 8th place in the Premier League and they can concentrate fully on this game.
West Ham did have to play with ten men for a long time in the goalless draw at Southampton during the week and that might have put a few tired legs amongst the squad, especially with an early Saturday morning kick off to contend with. Whether that makes a difference will be told on the pitch, but I do think West Ham can win for the second time here this season, especially as they are a side that does usually create chances no matter where they play this campaign.
I do have to say that Pulis has made West Brom a tougher team to play against, but he might think about making a few too many changes that gives West Ham the edge in this tie and they have to be worth a small interest to win.
Blackburn Rovers v Stoke City Pick: Mark Hughes had plenty of success as a player in the FA Cup with Manchester United and Chelsea and he won't be taking this competition lightly as manager of Stoke City as he looks to emulate what Tony Pulis did in 2011.
That season saw Stoke City reach the Final of the FA Cup before finding Yaya Toure and Manchester City a little too good and it has taken the best teams in England to knock them out of the FA Cup in recent seasons. Hughes admitted that his Stoke team's best chances of winning silverware comes in the two domestic Cup competitions and that they can't overlook that, especially with a strong enough record in the Premier League to think they will avoid the drop to the Championship.
Stoke are an established Premier League team so they should think about winning silverware, but it won't be easy at Ewood Park where Blackburn Rovers have scored plenty of goals and dismissed Swansea in the Fourth Round. However, they were aided by a 7th minute sending off of Kyle Bartley and you have to believe that Stoke City won't be in such a disadvantageous position.
There is no doubt that the likes of Jordan Rhodes and Rudy Gestede provide a real threat for Blackburn, and in previous years I would certainly look at a game like this and wonder about the chances of an upset. However, Stoke have actually improved away from the Brittania Stadium markedly this season and will have the pace in the forward positions to give Blackburn plenty to think about if they push too far forward and I think I will have a small interest in Stoke getting this done at the first time of asking.
Derby County v Reading Pick: Steve McClaren might not see the FA Cup as the number one priority for Derby County this season, but being two games away from Wembley and having a home draw at this stage of the competition is tough to ignore. He has made changes to his team in the last couple of Rounds, but you have to feel that McClaren picks as strong a team as possible to make sure Derby County move into the Sixth Round without needing a replay.
A home draw is all Derby could have hoped for at this stage, especially as they have been given a draw against one of the sides below them in the League pyramid. However, Reading have been an improving side under Steve Clarke and really have nothing but the FA Cup to play for the rest of the way.
They have already won at Huddersfield Town and Cardiff City in the Cup this season, but neither of those sides are of the level of Derby County and this is going to be a tough game for Reading. Even getting the game back to the Majedski Stadium would have to be seen as an achievement for Reading, but that might also be beyond them considering how well Derby have played at the iPro Stadium.
Derby have already beaten Reading here in the other Cup competition this season and also crushed them away from home in the League, both times without conceding a goal. I expect they will take this game seriously enough to move through to the last eight and provide another boost in confidence to take into their next League games.
Crystal Palace v Liverpool Pick: This looks a fascinating Fifth Round tie and is the tie of the Round in the FA Cup this weekend as Crystal Palace host Liverpool. The winner of the tie will certainly feel they have every chance of going all the way in the competition and I expect both Alan Pardew and Brendan Rodgers to put a lot of effort into helping their sides win this at the first time of asking.
Of the two managers, Pardew has to feel his Crystal Palace team will have their best opportunity to beat Liverpool at home, while Rodgers won't want to add to an already congested fixture list for Liverpool by having to play a replay at Anfield in two weeks time.
Pardew will look to offer his own experiences to the Crystal Palace players having been taken into the fans' hearts with the extra time winning goal against Liverpool in the FA Cup Semi Final in 1990. That has never been forgotten by the fans in the classic 4-3 win for Crystal Palace, although it will be a big task for his team to match that feat. As well as Crystal Palace have played since Pardew came in, they are facing an in-form Liverpool side and matching the win from earlier this season won't come easy.
I do like the pace that Palace have in the forward positions and they do create chances at home, but defensively there are still some issues for the home team that the likes of Daniel Sturridge, Raheem Sterling and Phillipe Coutinho will look to exploit.
Goals have not been much of a problem for Liverpool of late with the amount of chances they create, but they do look a short price considering they have failed to win any of their last 6 visits to Selhurst Park. The fact is that Crystal Palace have won 4 of those 6 games, including earlier this season, so the short prices on Liverpool don't look attractive enough.
Both teams should create their chances and I think both teams can score- I don't expect either manager to take a backward step in this game as they look to move into the Sixth Round at the first time of asking and so backing at least three goals from this game looks the call. The last 3 games between Crystal Palace and Liverpool at Selhurst Park have produced a combined 12 goals and I think the price is good enough.
Bradford City v Sunderland Pick: The way that Bradford City stormed back to beat Chelsea has to raise the questions as to what they are doing outside of the top six in League One and that might come down to their 6 home losses from 15 League games played at Valley Parade this season. That would be a concern for them in trying to back up the win over Chelsea by beating another Premier League side, although they won't have a better chance against a Sunderland team that is going to be shell-shocked by their home loss against Queens Park Rangers.
I expect Gus Poyet will still play a strong team in this one despite his side being dragged back down to the relegation dogfight in the Premier League following that loss, and that quality should give them the edge in the match. However, I think Sunderland are going to be under a lot of pressure in this one and the expectation of winning might play into their minds too.
Bradford City are a lively outsider in this one and they will certainly believe they have the beating of Sunderland despite being a lot lower than them in the League pyramid. Over the last couple of years, Phil Parkinson has found the right formula to take down Premier League teams in Cup competitions, although it is going to be tough for them against a usually solid Sunderland team.
The odds against quotes on Sunderland winning this game does look like it could be a big price in hindsight, but I think this is going to be a very difficult tie for them. It may just need Sunderland to take this back to the Stadium of Light to get the job done and I think the draw is worth a small interest.
Arsenal v Middlesbrough Pick: Aitor Karanka was a strange appointment by Middlesbrough last season, but the former Real Madrid defender and Assistant Manager is exceeding expectations in his first full year at the helm at the Riverside Stadium. There is plenty of football still to be played, but Middlesbrough lead the Championship and have already come away from Manchester City with a 0-2 FA Cup win.
That should be enough to focus Arsenal on the task at hand in this Fifth Round tie despite being the favourites to win the FA Cup for the second successive season after the exits of Manchester City and Chelsea. A home draw seems to have come at the right moment of the season with plenty of days between games and so Arsene Wenger can play as strong a team as he likes.
It should be the key for Arsenal to progress at the first time of asking and I do think their pace is going to be an issue for Middlesbrough to deal with. As well as they did in beating Manchester City, it took an inspired performance from Tomas Mejias, the second choice goalkeeper, to keep Middlesbrough from being a couple of goals down by half time in that game.
If Arsenal are a little more clinical than Manchester City were that day last month, I would expect the Gunners to have too much firepower for the Championship leaders. Going ahead will only open the door for the speedy counter-attacks that makes Arsenal so dangerous, although the concern would be if they play as poorly defensively as they did against Leicester City.
However, Aitor Karanka has used his full squad in the FA Cup this season, even in the game at the Etihad Stadium, and I would be surprised if Middlesbrough can ride their luck for a second consecutive Round. Confidence is high which can help teams make their own luck, but Arsenal should be too strong and I like them to come through with a couple of goals separating the sides at least.
Preston North End v Manchester United Pick: This looks like an FA Cup tie that is going to be far from easy for Manchester United if you consider the way they had to huff and puff in their away games at Yeovil Town and Cambridge United in the last two Rounds of the competition. Both of those games saw Manchester United have to ride out a storm before coming through and I expect Preston North End to make things very awkward for Louis Van Gaal's men on Monday evening.
The likes of Kevin Davies will thrive on long balls that will look to unsettle the Manchester United back line, while Joe Garner has been a consistent threat at the lower level and will want to prove what he is capable of against Premier League opposition.
Both will pose their problems, but Manchester United should at least feel a little easier at Deepdale than they did at Huish Park and the Abbey Stadium because the facilities are better here. The pitch isn't as constricted as it was at Yeovil Town and Cambridge United and that should at least allow the quality players to show what they can do.
The problem has been that those 'quality' players have been struggling for Manchester United in recent weeks to really impose themselves and I expect that might be the case on Monday too. It might take them a little while to get to grips with what Preston North End are producing and the difference in quality may not show up until the second half.
That has happened in both previous FA Cup ties for Manchester United with the second half away performances being better than the first half as their host have tired. Against Yeovil Town it proved to be the difference maker in a 0-2 win, but Cambridge United managed to hold out and force the replay.
Preston are better than both of those teams, so I would expect they are going to perhaps last a little longer than those teams too. However, I do think the Manchester United quality can come through without needing to take this game back to Old Trafford and I think backing this game to be a draw at half time before Manchester United win could pay dividends.
MY PICKS: West Ham United @ 3.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Stoke City @ 2.50 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Derby County @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bradford City-Sunderland Draw @ 3.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.38 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Draw HT-Manchester United FT @ 4.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
February Update: 4-9, - 10.24 Units (25 Units Staked, - 40.96% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 80-120-2, - 29.42 Units (346 Units Staked, - 8.50% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Friday, 13 February 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (February 13th)
It would have been a really good day on Thursday if I had steered clear of the tournament in Sao Paulo where I went 0-3, especially as I was 4-0 everywhere else.
As the tournaments have got closer to the end of the week, it does mean that the markets are playing catch up with the matches being set so I will add any picks from the later matches in Antwerp, Sao Paulo and Memphis, if I have any, as soon as those are available.
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Gael Monfils: The Quarter Final line up at the tournament in Rotterdam has all of the big names, Grigor Dimitrov aside, that the organisers would have been expecting when they put together their entry list. The first ATP 500 event of the season is an important one for World Ranking points and so the motivation remains high.
Both Tomas Berdych and Gael Monfils will believe they can make a considerable move during the 2015 season in terms of their goals- that is Berdych challenging for a Grand Slam title and Gael Monfils perhaps getting close to returning to the top 10.
Berdych is the defending Champion here and is the more consistent of these two players although there are similarities with both producing a very good first serve and being able to follow that up. Monfils can be a little more hesitant when it comes to the aggressive tennis and that may be the difference between these players in this Quarter Final.
I think both will have their success serving early in the match and there is every chance the first set needs to be decided on a tie-break, but I think that is where Berdych's extra aggression on the indoor hard courts leads to a 76, 63 win.
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Gilles Muller: It has been a really good twelve months for Gilles Muller but I think he will have his run ended at the Quarter Final here in Rotterdam by Stan Wawrinka.
The Swiss Number 2 was a comfortable winner over Muller when they met in Chennai, although it has to be respected how well Muller can serve. He doesn't have the searing pace of Milos Raonic, but his placement and coming from a lefty means Muller can run through games very quickly.
However, I think Wawrinka's aggressive returns can pay off in this one, especially if he can get his eye in early, while Muller has seemed to tire in Zagreb last week. This will need to be Wawrinka's best performance of the week, but he has worked his way into the tournament and got stronger in his win over Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the last Round.
Wawrinka can make the scoreboard pressure tell in a 76, 63 win in this one.
Carla Suarez Navarro - 2.5 games v Francesca Schiavone: A dominating performance from Francesca Schiavone over Angelique Kerber in the last Round where she lost just two games seems to have had the market over-rate her chances in this one against Carla Suarez Navarro. It has been a very good week for the veteran Italian who had not won a match all season before coming through the qualifiers and winning two matches in the main draw, but I think Carla Suarez Navarro will be a little too consistent for her.
Suarez Navarro won't dominate this match on power, but she has enough shot-making to keep Schiavone on the move and wear her down in the match. It has been a more difficult path through the draw for the Spaniard after she dropped the opening set in both of her matches played this week, but she has shown plenty of belief which can only serve her well in this match too.
I am expecting some long rallies in this one as both players are decent movers and it won't surprise me to see a number of breaks of serve in both directions, but I think the younger Suarez Navarro will have a little too much in the locker.
This could go three sets, but a 46, 63, 64 win for Suarez Navarro is what I am expecting.
Barbora Zahlavova Strycova - 1.5 games v Mona Barthel: One of the more difficult aspects on the tennis Tour is backing up a widely regarded win from a previous Round and that is what Mona Barthel will need to do after dismissing the challenge of Eugenie Bouchard on Thursday.
Barthel came from a set down to demolish the young Canadian star, but Barbora Zahlavova Strycova is another challenge as the Czech player has produced a lot of quality wins over the last nine months. There is every chance Zahlavova Strycova is going to crack the top 20 in the World Rankings over the next couple of weeks and she has won the last two matches against Barthel which have taken place in the nine month period of improved results.
Both of those matches were fairly comfortable wins for Zahlavova Strycova who works hard on the court and has decent enough movement to make Barthel play plenty of balls.
That can lead to mistakes from Barthel who will be under pressure to back up the win over Bouchard and I just think she may struggle to deal with that in this one. It could potentially be another three setter here, but I do like Zahlavova Strycova's chances of moving through with a 63, 36, 64 win.
Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 games v Luka Vanni: Dusan Lajovic surprised me with his come from behind win over Fernando Verdasco yesterday, but he has a very good chance to take advantage and move into the Semi Final here in Sao Paulo. He meets Luka Vanni, a qualifier who was given a bye in the First Round after Feliciano Lopez' withdrawal moved him to the top of the draw, but also someone that Lajovic beat in straight sets in Quito last week.
Both players do feel comfortable on the clay courts, but the edge will go to Lajovic thanks to more consistent serving, which is always important on the slower courts. Earning the short ball is the key to dictating rallies and Lajovic should be able to do that as long as he isn't overly-exerted from the evening session match with Verdasco.
Luka Vanni is likely to reach a career high in the World Rankings on Monday thanks to his first ever win in a main ATP event and the majority of his success has come at the Futures level. For a 29 year old, that looks a large gap to bridge even if the Italian is very comfortable on the clay courts.
When they met in Quito, Lajovic didn't take his chances to produce a win better than the 76, 64 scoreline it ended up being. I think he might be a little more efficient this time unless Vanni produces a lot of first serves and I like the Serbian to perhaps win this by a game more in a 75, 64 win.
Leonardo Mayer - 3.5 games v Joao Souza: I was watching the Joao Souza win over Martin Klizan last night and tweeted that I would be surprised if he was going to win more than six games against Leonardo Mayer. While I have changed my mind about that since last night, I still think the Argentinian can break Brazilian hearts with a fairly comfortable Quarter Final win.
These players have met four times in the past, all below the ATP level, and it Mayer who has won all four of those matches, although he has needed to go the distance every time. It is a weird trend in their matches which sees Mayer win the first set fairly comfortably, but then lose a second set tie-breaker... That has happened in all four previous matches!
The last of those matches took place three seasons ago and Leonardo Mayer has become much more comfortable competing at a higher level than Souza does. While the Brazilian has two impressive wins this week, Mayer is the most difficult challenge he would have faced and the familiarity with this opponent should aid the higher Ranked player.
Even though Mayer has dropped the second set in all four previous matches against Souza, he has covered this number of games three times and I do think he is the better player. Souza has been inspired by the home support which makes a lot of noise when his opponent makes errors, an issue that can upset the opponent, but Mayer is experienced enough to deal with that. I like Mayer to come through 63, 76.
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: I am not sure how Fabio Fognini ever got to Number 13 in the World Rankings, but you can't doubt what the Italian has done on the clay courts over the last eighteen months. He came through a very difficult Second Round match in three sets and explained that it is tough to make the surface change, so I do expect a more rounded performance in this one.
Fognini will be playing Santiago Giraldo in this Quarter Final and has got the better of the Colombian in 4 of their previous 6 matches, including beating him in their most recent match on clay. However, he was only two games away from a double bagel from this opponent in Barcelona last year before pulling out with an injury, although it wasn't anything long-term as Fognini was back in action a week later and reaching the Final in Munich.
This will be tight Quarter Final where both players should pick up the momentum- the clay courts seem to work well for Fognini and his defensive ability on the court which will extract errors from Giraldo, although it is the latter who has the edge in the service and power department.
However, I think the defensive players that can get a lot of balls back in play are always going to be a problem for the inconsistent Giraldo to deal with and I believe Fognini will come through. Even if this ends in straight sets, I don't think Fognini pulls away too far, but the games are small enough that I will back the erratic Italian to come through 75, 75.
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Austin Krajicek: Kei Nishikori is going for his third straight Memphis title and he has only dropped two sets over the last two a bit tournaments that he has played so you can understand that he is very happy with the conditions he faces. He should progress through to the Semi Final with little fuss against Austin Krajicek, even if the American has earned some confidence stripes from coming through the qualifiers and winning two main Round matches.
The problem I see for Krajicek is that a somewhat limited returner like Ivo Karlovic was winning a lot more points against his serve than he would perhaps like to admit. There were many 15-30, 30-30 points that were played and he now faces a player that will get a lot of balls back in play and is as quick turning defence into attack as any player on the Tour.
Nishikori's serve is the biggest weakness when it comes to him covering big spreads simply because he has to work so hard to win points and he is not going to get a lot of cheap points. However, Krajicek will also be under pressure to try and keep up with the World Number 5 and he is coming up against a top 10 player for the first time.
That should inspire him for a while and the first set could be tight, but I would expect Nishikori to take control once he figures out what Krajicek can produce on the court and come through with a 64, 62 win.
John Isner - 1.5 games v Sam Querrey: It is hard to believe that these two American players who had the hard task of following on from the likes of Pete Sampras, Andre Agassi and Andy Roddick haven't met for five seasons in a competitive match. As two of the members of the United States Davis Cup team, there still won't be any secret as to what the other wants to do and that is namely dictate behind a huge serve and crushing forehand.
Sam Querrey is no longer the player that some American fans would have hoped could be the next Grand Slam Champion from this nation and it is John Isner who burdens that pressure for the most part. However, neither is really someone that people would back to win a Slam because of limited return games.
Of the two, Isner has been much more consistent and has been dominant when playing in the United States on the hard courts and I think he will have the edge in this one. Querrey is a big man that will get his racquet on more balls than some, but he also has the tendency to throw in a sloppy game or two or serve and that is where Isner can pounce.
It is Querrey who holds a 2-1 head to head advantage between these players, but Isner has improved markedly since 2010 while Querrey has stood still and I like the higher Ranked American to come through 76, 64.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Barbora Zahlavova Strycova - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
John Isner - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-5, + 2.30 Units (24 Units Staked, + 9.58% Yield)
As the tournaments have got closer to the end of the week, it does mean that the markets are playing catch up with the matches being set so I will add any picks from the later matches in Antwerp, Sao Paulo and Memphis, if I have any, as soon as those are available.
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Gael Monfils: The Quarter Final line up at the tournament in Rotterdam has all of the big names, Grigor Dimitrov aside, that the organisers would have been expecting when they put together their entry list. The first ATP 500 event of the season is an important one for World Ranking points and so the motivation remains high.
Both Tomas Berdych and Gael Monfils will believe they can make a considerable move during the 2015 season in terms of their goals- that is Berdych challenging for a Grand Slam title and Gael Monfils perhaps getting close to returning to the top 10.
Berdych is the defending Champion here and is the more consistent of these two players although there are similarities with both producing a very good first serve and being able to follow that up. Monfils can be a little more hesitant when it comes to the aggressive tennis and that may be the difference between these players in this Quarter Final.
I think both will have their success serving early in the match and there is every chance the first set needs to be decided on a tie-break, but I think that is where Berdych's extra aggression on the indoor hard courts leads to a 76, 63 win.
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Gilles Muller: It has been a really good twelve months for Gilles Muller but I think he will have his run ended at the Quarter Final here in Rotterdam by Stan Wawrinka.
The Swiss Number 2 was a comfortable winner over Muller when they met in Chennai, although it has to be respected how well Muller can serve. He doesn't have the searing pace of Milos Raonic, but his placement and coming from a lefty means Muller can run through games very quickly.
However, I think Wawrinka's aggressive returns can pay off in this one, especially if he can get his eye in early, while Muller has seemed to tire in Zagreb last week. This will need to be Wawrinka's best performance of the week, but he has worked his way into the tournament and got stronger in his win over Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the last Round.
Wawrinka can make the scoreboard pressure tell in a 76, 63 win in this one.
Carla Suarez Navarro - 2.5 games v Francesca Schiavone: A dominating performance from Francesca Schiavone over Angelique Kerber in the last Round where she lost just two games seems to have had the market over-rate her chances in this one against Carla Suarez Navarro. It has been a very good week for the veteran Italian who had not won a match all season before coming through the qualifiers and winning two matches in the main draw, but I think Carla Suarez Navarro will be a little too consistent for her.
Suarez Navarro won't dominate this match on power, but she has enough shot-making to keep Schiavone on the move and wear her down in the match. It has been a more difficult path through the draw for the Spaniard after she dropped the opening set in both of her matches played this week, but she has shown plenty of belief which can only serve her well in this match too.
I am expecting some long rallies in this one as both players are decent movers and it won't surprise me to see a number of breaks of serve in both directions, but I think the younger Suarez Navarro will have a little too much in the locker.
This could go three sets, but a 46, 63, 64 win for Suarez Navarro is what I am expecting.
Barbora Zahlavova Strycova - 1.5 games v Mona Barthel: One of the more difficult aspects on the tennis Tour is backing up a widely regarded win from a previous Round and that is what Mona Barthel will need to do after dismissing the challenge of Eugenie Bouchard on Thursday.
Barthel came from a set down to demolish the young Canadian star, but Barbora Zahlavova Strycova is another challenge as the Czech player has produced a lot of quality wins over the last nine months. There is every chance Zahlavova Strycova is going to crack the top 20 in the World Rankings over the next couple of weeks and she has won the last two matches against Barthel which have taken place in the nine month period of improved results.
Both of those matches were fairly comfortable wins for Zahlavova Strycova who works hard on the court and has decent enough movement to make Barthel play plenty of balls.
That can lead to mistakes from Barthel who will be under pressure to back up the win over Bouchard and I just think she may struggle to deal with that in this one. It could potentially be another three setter here, but I do like Zahlavova Strycova's chances of moving through with a 63, 36, 64 win.
Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 games v Luka Vanni: Dusan Lajovic surprised me with his come from behind win over Fernando Verdasco yesterday, but he has a very good chance to take advantage and move into the Semi Final here in Sao Paulo. He meets Luka Vanni, a qualifier who was given a bye in the First Round after Feliciano Lopez' withdrawal moved him to the top of the draw, but also someone that Lajovic beat in straight sets in Quito last week.
Both players do feel comfortable on the clay courts, but the edge will go to Lajovic thanks to more consistent serving, which is always important on the slower courts. Earning the short ball is the key to dictating rallies and Lajovic should be able to do that as long as he isn't overly-exerted from the evening session match with Verdasco.
Luka Vanni is likely to reach a career high in the World Rankings on Monday thanks to his first ever win in a main ATP event and the majority of his success has come at the Futures level. For a 29 year old, that looks a large gap to bridge even if the Italian is very comfortable on the clay courts.
When they met in Quito, Lajovic didn't take his chances to produce a win better than the 76, 64 scoreline it ended up being. I think he might be a little more efficient this time unless Vanni produces a lot of first serves and I like the Serbian to perhaps win this by a game more in a 75, 64 win.
Leonardo Mayer - 3.5 games v Joao Souza: I was watching the Joao Souza win over Martin Klizan last night and tweeted that I would be surprised if he was going to win more than six games against Leonardo Mayer. While I have changed my mind about that since last night, I still think the Argentinian can break Brazilian hearts with a fairly comfortable Quarter Final win.
These players have met four times in the past, all below the ATP level, and it Mayer who has won all four of those matches, although he has needed to go the distance every time. It is a weird trend in their matches which sees Mayer win the first set fairly comfortably, but then lose a second set tie-breaker... That has happened in all four previous matches!
The last of those matches took place three seasons ago and Leonardo Mayer has become much more comfortable competing at a higher level than Souza does. While the Brazilian has two impressive wins this week, Mayer is the most difficult challenge he would have faced and the familiarity with this opponent should aid the higher Ranked player.
Even though Mayer has dropped the second set in all four previous matches against Souza, he has covered this number of games three times and I do think he is the better player. Souza has been inspired by the home support which makes a lot of noise when his opponent makes errors, an issue that can upset the opponent, but Mayer is experienced enough to deal with that. I like Mayer to come through 63, 76.
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: I am not sure how Fabio Fognini ever got to Number 13 in the World Rankings, but you can't doubt what the Italian has done on the clay courts over the last eighteen months. He came through a very difficult Second Round match in three sets and explained that it is tough to make the surface change, so I do expect a more rounded performance in this one.
Fognini will be playing Santiago Giraldo in this Quarter Final and has got the better of the Colombian in 4 of their previous 6 matches, including beating him in their most recent match on clay. However, he was only two games away from a double bagel from this opponent in Barcelona last year before pulling out with an injury, although it wasn't anything long-term as Fognini was back in action a week later and reaching the Final in Munich.
This will be tight Quarter Final where both players should pick up the momentum- the clay courts seem to work well for Fognini and his defensive ability on the court which will extract errors from Giraldo, although it is the latter who has the edge in the service and power department.
However, I think the defensive players that can get a lot of balls back in play are always going to be a problem for the inconsistent Giraldo to deal with and I believe Fognini will come through. Even if this ends in straight sets, I don't think Fognini pulls away too far, but the games are small enough that I will back the erratic Italian to come through 75, 75.
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Austin Krajicek: Kei Nishikori is going for his third straight Memphis title and he has only dropped two sets over the last two a bit tournaments that he has played so you can understand that he is very happy with the conditions he faces. He should progress through to the Semi Final with little fuss against Austin Krajicek, even if the American has earned some confidence stripes from coming through the qualifiers and winning two main Round matches.
The problem I see for Krajicek is that a somewhat limited returner like Ivo Karlovic was winning a lot more points against his serve than he would perhaps like to admit. There were many 15-30, 30-30 points that were played and he now faces a player that will get a lot of balls back in play and is as quick turning defence into attack as any player on the Tour.
Nishikori's serve is the biggest weakness when it comes to him covering big spreads simply because he has to work so hard to win points and he is not going to get a lot of cheap points. However, Krajicek will also be under pressure to try and keep up with the World Number 5 and he is coming up against a top 10 player for the first time.
That should inspire him for a while and the first set could be tight, but I would expect Nishikori to take control once he figures out what Krajicek can produce on the court and come through with a 64, 62 win.
John Isner - 1.5 games v Sam Querrey: It is hard to believe that these two American players who had the hard task of following on from the likes of Pete Sampras, Andre Agassi and Andy Roddick haven't met for five seasons in a competitive match. As two of the members of the United States Davis Cup team, there still won't be any secret as to what the other wants to do and that is namely dictate behind a huge serve and crushing forehand.
Sam Querrey is no longer the player that some American fans would have hoped could be the next Grand Slam Champion from this nation and it is John Isner who burdens that pressure for the most part. However, neither is really someone that people would back to win a Slam because of limited return games.
Of the two, Isner has been much more consistent and has been dominant when playing in the United States on the hard courts and I think he will have the edge in this one. Querrey is a big man that will get his racquet on more balls than some, but he also has the tendency to throw in a sloppy game or two or serve and that is where Isner can pounce.
It is Querrey who holds a 2-1 head to head advantage between these players, but Isner has improved markedly since 2010 while Querrey has stood still and I like the higher Ranked American to come through 76, 64.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Barbora Zahlavova Strycova - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fabio Fognini - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
John Isner - 1.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-5, + 2.30 Units (24 Units Staked, + 9.58% Yield)
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