Most of the tournaments that are set to begin and be played over the next week will begin main draw matches on Monday, but that is not the case in the WTA Dubai event which is concluded on Saturday so will get their First Round matches underway on Sunday.
At least the weather looks better in Dubai than it was in Doha last week and the whole tournament should get through on point without the need for players to have to play twice on the same day.
I will have a couple of picks from the First Round matches in Dubai on Sunday whichI will include in the weekly totals for this week as the three Finals in Rotterdam, Buenos Aires and Memphis are also played to round off the tournaments from last week.
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 games v Johanna Larsson: The First Round in Dubai begins with 12 matches scheduled for Sunday and I am going in with the first of those scheduled for the main court. That sees the young Frenchwoman Caroline Garcia try and move through to the Second Round at the expense of Johanna Larsson and I do like Garcia's chances of doing that.
I was a little surprised to see that Garcia is still as high as Number 24 in the World Rankings because I do tend to notice when she is beaten early in draws and that has seemingly been the case more often than not in 2017. This is a player that has a lot more potential than being outside the top 20 of the World Rankings, but it does feel her best tennis is reserved for the Doubles circuit at the moment.
Garcia has a very good serve when she is feeling it and she should cause Larsson plenty of problems with the latter not one of the better returners on the Tour. Larsson has struggled with the returning aspect of her game to open the 2017 season and solid serving from Garcia should give her the real edge in the match.
I also think Larsson has not been serving as well as she can do, but that has more to do with backing up what is an effective first delivery. Garcia should have the edge when the rallies do develop and the key for her to win this match with relative comfort is making sure she takes advantage of when she puts Larsson under pressure and convert the break points that com her way.
I think the Garcia serve will build the pressure on Larsson anyway and I am looking for Garcia to move through with a 6-4, 6-4 win after a few twists and turns in the contest.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 5.5 games v Ons Jabeur: Any player that has won back to back matches to come through the Qualifiers has to be respected as they have a superior knowledge of the current conditions in a tournament. That is what Ons Jabeur is hoping to take advantage of in this First Round match, but she will have to bridge a considerable difference in the level of quality that she and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova bring to the court.
In saying that, Jabeur has been plenty competitive in her matches this season and pushed Elina Svitolina to three sets in a loss to her in Taipei City. Jabeur really hurt Svitolina on the return of serve that day, but she is going to have to deal with a very decent Pavlyuchenkova delivery which has been important for the Russian in her last two events.
The one issue that Pavlyuchenkova is never that far from is losing a bit of focus mentally which leads to plenty of errors off her racquet. She can also be frustrated if players are able to get a lot of balls back in play and that is what Jabeur will try and do.
However I think Pavlyuchenkova's power and shot-making will prove too hot for Jabeur to handle. The latter will look to get into position to use her drop shots and short angles to catch out Pavlyuchenkova, whose movement can be an issue for her, but ultimately this could be the day when the power is able to zip through the court and force Jabeur on the back foot.
The courts in Dubai tend to be some of the fastest on the Tour and I think Pavlyuchenkova can use that to her advantage and come through with a 6-4, 6-2 win.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 1.5 games v David Goffin: The Final in Rotterdam looks a good one between Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and David Goffin with both players making the start to 2017 which has them believing this could be a very good season for them. Both had impressive Semi Final wins on Saturday and I am anticipating a close match but one where I favour Tsonga a little more than Goffin and enough to want to back the Frenchman.
You cannot underestimate the importance of the Tsonga serve to the whole performance that he will bring into the match. When Tsonga is serving well, you can see the confidence flow through him and he has been doing that very well in his wins over Marin Cilic and Tomas Berdych where he also displayed solid mental strength to beat two opponents in straight sets who have dominated against him of late.
The serve is going to be important to Tsonga again as he will want to earn plenty of cheap points and short balls from David Goffin, a player that Tsonga won't want to allow to get into long, gruelling rallies. The shorter the points, the more likely Tsonga will win the point as he looks to dominate behind the serve and forehand rather than allowing Goffin to get into this backhand wing.
Goffin has been on good form considering he reached the Final in Sofia last week, but Tsonga can take heart from the way both Robin Haase and Grigor Dimitrov played against him. The Belgian might have won both matches, but both Haase and Dimitrov may have won on another day and Tsonga will feel his power and shot making this week is going to prove to be a little too good for Goffin.
Both Haase and Dimitrov took a set from Goffin, but I will look for Tsonga to have a little bit more in the tank and come away with the title in Rotterdam to underline his impressive start to the 2017 season.
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 games v Alexandr Dolgopolov: When Alexandr Dolgopolov gets on a roll like he has in Buenos Aires he can be very difficult to stop. However he has lost all five previous matches against Kei Nishikori and he has yet to win a set against him which is going to be some mental obstacle to overcome.
Nishikori let me down by not covering against Carlos Berlocq in their Semi Final here on Saturday, but he had his chances to do that before being dragged into a really tough match. That might have taken a toll physically, but Nishikori got through and he will feel he can weather any storm that Dolgopolov produces.
It has been a really good tournament for Dolgopolov, but he will have to be even better if he is going to take the title home. The run to the Final has seemingly come out of left field as Dolgopolov hadn't shown a lot of form earlier in the season and was beaten by Rajeev Ram last week, but like I say he can be really dangerous once he has built that momentum behind him.
The head to head with Nishikori has to be a concern though and I do think the Japanese star is capable of blunting the serve and can then out-rally Dolgopolov enough times to get his opponent looking to show off the big time winners. That can lead to errors and that will give Nishikori the edge.
Nishikori does have to serve better than he did on Saturday, but he has covered this number in three of his five wins over Dolgopolov and I will back him to have a little too much quality and consistency in the Final.
Ryan Harrison - 2.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: The Final in Memphis looks a good one between Ryan Harrison and Nikoloz Basilasvili who have both been in good form and should have plenty of confidence coming into this one. Neither player is a regular title winner at this level of the Tour so nerves are sure to play a big part in things, but the opponent they are facing is no more experienced so that should see both settle into the match.
Both Harrison and Basilashvili have come through the draw without dropping a set and both have had a couple of strong weeks of tennis behind them. Basilashvili reached the Semi Final last week in Sofia, while Harrison has moved onto nine straight wins and eighteen straight sets won in a row.
The power hitting is going to be on clear display in this match as both have shown they can punish opponents through the court, although Harrison is perhaps a little more proactive at getting to the net. I do think Basilashvili hits the ball harder from the baseline than the American, but he is also capable of recognising when he has an opponent in trouble and getting to the net.
Harrison and Basilashvili both possess decent serves with the first delivery all-important, but I do give a slight edge to the American overall. I love the way Basilashvili plays, but I think he doesn't have as much margin for error as Harrison does and he has to be feeling his rhythm from the first ball. While he has looked confident and is hitting through the court off both wings really well, Harrison is the player in the best form that Basilashvili has played this week.
This is actually the toughest test either has faced, but I do think Harrison is playing with some real confidence at the moment and is proving too good for opponents. Harrison will have to weather some of the incredibly big hitting that Basilashvili can produce, but I think he will be able to shorten points coming to the net and that can help him win this Final 7-6, 6-4 and take another move up the World Rankings.
MY PICKS: Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 15-20, - 11.74 Units (70 Units Staked, - 16.77% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Memphis Picks. Show all posts
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Sunday, 19 February 2017
Saturday, 18 February 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (February 18th)
After a really tough week, Friday proved to be a much better day for the picks with a solid record bringing the negative totals down from a very poor number.
It may have been better if Grigor Dimitrov had held onto the momentum he had earned in the second set against David Goffin, but that wasn't to be and I won't complain too much about that. At the time of writing this post, John Isner is yet to take the court against Donald Young and I am hoping the big man can bring home another winner to wrap up a solid day.
We are down to the last two days of the tournaments being played this week, but Saturday will also produce the draws for the five events that will begin next week. The WTA Tour moves on to Dubai and Bucharest with the former the main event of the week, while the ATP Tour has three more events in Rio de Janeiro, Delray Beach and Marseille.
The event in Rio is the second ATP 500 event of the season and the first to be played on the clay courts. We still have two more ATP 500 tournaments to be played this month before the first Masters event of the season and that means plenty of big names and big tennis to be played.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: Both Karolina Pliskova and Caroline Wozniacki had to win their Quarter Final and Semi Final matches in Doha on Friday as rain made a backlog of matches in the tournament. Both had one tough match and one relatively straight forward one and that should mean they are in a similar position from a physical stand point.
The mental edge might be with Wozniacki having won all three of the previous matches with Pliskova, but the latter is a much improved player since they last met in 2014. It also should be noted that Pliskova had a really poor record against Dominika Cibulkova before beating her in the Semi Final and I really do think the Czech player has a lot more belief in her own game than she even did six months ago.
Pliskova has already won a title in 2017 and she has the serve that will make her very dangerous in every tournament she will enter. It is that serve that should give her the edge in this match with Wozniacki despite how well the Danish former World Number 1 has been playing in Doha to this point.
The serve for Wozniacki has been pretty effective this week and she is one of the better defenders on the Tour which she will feel can blunt the Pliskova aggression. However we saw Johanna Konta tear through Wozniacki at the Australian Open and Pliskova is more than capable of doing that herself if she is at her best.
There will be times when Wozniacki extracts errors from Pliskova, but the serve will allow the Czech player to tee off on the Wozniacki delivery. I am looking for her to have a little too much for Wozniacki over two sets and I will look for Pliskova to win another title in 2017 with a break more than her opponent in each set.
Tomas Berdych - 1.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: You have to say that both Tomas Berdych and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga were very, very impressive in their Quarter Final wins on Friday and the winner of this Semi Final is going to be a favourite to win the title in Rotterdam. The oddsmakers are finding it difficult to separate the players, but I quite liked Tomas Berdych and am surprised that he is not being asked to cover a bigger number than the one he is.
The layers have placed Berdych as the slight favourite over Tsonga and the key for both players is going to be the serve and who can bring their forehand into play the quickest. I do think Berdych has the edge off the backhand wing, and I do think the Czech player can get into the Tsonga backhand wing and earn errors from that wing or at least earn a short ball or two.
It is Berdych who has a pretty dominant head to head advantage over Tsonga, but their match earlier this season in Doha was much closer than the final score indicates. It was Berdych's efficiency at taking his break points which won him the match, but Berdych will come in with the mental advantage.
Of course Tsonga snapped a poor run against Marin Cilic in the Quarter Final but I do feel he had to invest more in that match both physically and mentally than Berdych has at any time this week. That can take a toll on a player and Berdych certainly plays well enough in Rotterdam to take advantage of that if Tsonga is a little flatter than he was on Friday.
It will likely be a close match between these players in their current form, but I will look for Berdych to just break down the Tsonga backhand enough to come through with a three set win as he moves through to the Final.
David Goffin - 3.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: I am 0-2 backing against Pierre-Hugues Herbert this week, but I am going to go in against the Doubles expert one more time. His win over Dominic Thiem was very impressive in the Quarter Final and David Goffin is at the back end of a second long week on the Tour so this might be a dangerous spot to go against the Frenchman.
However I can't help think Herbert has overachieved massively to this point and this is a player who hasn't had a lot of success as a Singles player this level on the Tour. His overall statistics over the last year highlight that feeling and I think someone like Goffin is a superior returner to anyone Herbert has played so far this week.
Of course I am concerned about the amount of tennis Goffin has played over the last two weeks as well as the long match he had with Grigor Dimitrov in the Quarter Final. His return game is going to cause Herbert some problems in this one if he is feeling physically up to the battle and I think Goffin can have the success that others have lacked when it comes to converting the break points that head his way.
If Goffin is returning up to his ability, he should find the breaks to win this match in straight sets and I will be looking for him to do that and end a run that will take Herbert back inside the top 100 of the World Rankings.
Nikoloz Basilashvili - 1.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: The Mikhail Kukushkin run to the Semi Final in Memphis has really come out of left field when you think he had lost nine of his last eleven matches on the Tour. That included early losses in the Challenger tournaments held in Dallas and San Francisco over the last two weeks and neither against opponents of real note.
Partly Kukushkin has been the beneficiary of a good draw and I think Nikoloz Basilashvili is the toughest opponent he will have played. The Georgian reached the Semi Final in Sofia last week which has clearly given him some confidence and he is yet to drop a set here.
The serve for both men is going to be very important as both have been returning effectively so far this week. I was a little concerned for Basilashvili that he had a long week in Sofia before heading to Memphis and whether that would take a toll on him, but he has been really focused and looking strong.
There have been times over the years where I have looked at Kukushkin and expected him to make a real move in the World Rankings with some of the talent he has. This week might be the start of his recovery having slipped outside the top 100 of the World Rankings, but I am expecting Basilashvili to have a little more confidence at the big moments and continue his own fine run here.
Ryan Harrison - 2.5 games v Donald Young: Ryan Harrison is moving back up the World Rankings ad has followed up his title win at the Dallas Challenger by reaching the Semi Final in Memphis. Harrison has now won eight matches in a row and has won all sixteen sets he has played in that time, while only two of those sets has seen an opponent get to five games.
The wins this week have been impressive and you can't discount the confidence Harrison should have coming into this Semi Final. He will need to produce some of his best tennis to win this match, but he has shown he is in a hot vein of form and I do think he will get the better of Donald Young.
Not for the first time this week, Young became a player who won a match in which he lost more points than his opponent and he was a touch fortunate to get the better of John Isner. I was impressed with some of the big time tennis Young played in the clutch, but Isner should have won that match.
This match is a different feeling for Young than his last two as there should be more rallies involved between the players. The last two matches have been against big servers where Young had to stay in the match mentally, although he will also need to adjust to the fact that Harrison is a far better rallier than Isner or Opelka.
Harrison has won four of their last five matches and I do think he will get the better of Young in this one. Young has won two matches here where his opponent has won more points than him and I think Harrison is serving and returning well enough to capitalise on the chances that Adrian Mannarino and John Isner allowed to slip through their fingers and Harrison can win this one 6-4, 6-4.
Alexandr Dolgopolov + 1.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: The first Semi Final in Buenos Aires looks a very good one between two players who have produced some solid tennis this week. Both Pablo Carreno Busta and Alexandr Dolgopolov have to feel they have produced enough good quality tennis to get to the Final here, but I like the underdog with the games.
Dolgopolov has been serving really well this week and won at least 70% of the points behind serve in all three matches played. He has not prevented the breaks of serve, but that can happen on the clay courts and won't concern me too much as reaching that percentage of points won does put a lot of pressure on the opponent.
The win over Pablo Cuevas has been particularly impressive from Dolgopolov and that form makes him a dangerous opponent for Carreno Busta on Saturday. To be fair to the Spaniard, he has played well too and looked after his serve for the most part, but someone as flashy as Dolgopolov can be very difficult to read.
Carreno Busta will hope his steady attitude will be enough to see him through, but I do think Dolgopolov might have the edge in the serving department and has shown he can hit through the court here. We might see these two go deep into a third set, but I will take the games and look for Dolgopolov to earn the potential upset.
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: This is not going to be an easy match for Kei Nishikori because he will be playing against the crowd as well as his opponent in the first Semi Final in Buenos Aires. Over the years Carlos Berlocq has managed to get under the skin of many an opponent, although I think Nishikori is not going to outwardly shown any real emotion, and the crowd will cheer every error from the top Seed which can also begin to frustrate players.
However you have to think Nishikori is going to be significantly stronger in the rallies than Berlocq and I think it will be a big surprise if he is not able to control this match. I do think Berlocq will create a few break point chances of his own because of the lack of cheap points that Nishikori is going to get, but this is easily the best opponent the home favourite will have faced so far.
This is also the same Berlocq who only a couple of weeks ago was dismantled over the first two sets by Andreas Seppi and I think Nishikori is going to be too good for him. The question with this number of games is whether Nishikori is going to have too many sloppy service games to cover, but he hasn't served badly since the opening set here this week.
It will be a grind at times, but Nishikori should be able to wear down Berlocq with his quality from the baseline and I expect the top Seed to reach Sunday's Final with a 6-3, 6-4 win.
MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Nikoloz Basilashvili - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison - 2.5 Gams @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov + 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Coral (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 10-18, - 17.16 Units (56 Units Staked, - 30.64% Yield)
It may have been better if Grigor Dimitrov had held onto the momentum he had earned in the second set against David Goffin, but that wasn't to be and I won't complain too much about that. At the time of writing this post, John Isner is yet to take the court against Donald Young and I am hoping the big man can bring home another winner to wrap up a solid day.
We are down to the last two days of the tournaments being played this week, but Saturday will also produce the draws for the five events that will begin next week. The WTA Tour moves on to Dubai and Bucharest with the former the main event of the week, while the ATP Tour has three more events in Rio de Janeiro, Delray Beach and Marseille.
The event in Rio is the second ATP 500 event of the season and the first to be played on the clay courts. We still have two more ATP 500 tournaments to be played this month before the first Masters event of the season and that means plenty of big names and big tennis to be played.
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: Both Karolina Pliskova and Caroline Wozniacki had to win their Quarter Final and Semi Final matches in Doha on Friday as rain made a backlog of matches in the tournament. Both had one tough match and one relatively straight forward one and that should mean they are in a similar position from a physical stand point.
The mental edge might be with Wozniacki having won all three of the previous matches with Pliskova, but the latter is a much improved player since they last met in 2014. It also should be noted that Pliskova had a really poor record against Dominika Cibulkova before beating her in the Semi Final and I really do think the Czech player has a lot more belief in her own game than she even did six months ago.
Pliskova has already won a title in 2017 and she has the serve that will make her very dangerous in every tournament she will enter. It is that serve that should give her the edge in this match with Wozniacki despite how well the Danish former World Number 1 has been playing in Doha to this point.
The serve for Wozniacki has been pretty effective this week and she is one of the better defenders on the Tour which she will feel can blunt the Pliskova aggression. However we saw Johanna Konta tear through Wozniacki at the Australian Open and Pliskova is more than capable of doing that herself if she is at her best.
There will be times when Wozniacki extracts errors from Pliskova, but the serve will allow the Czech player to tee off on the Wozniacki delivery. I am looking for her to have a little too much for Wozniacki over two sets and I will look for Pliskova to win another title in 2017 with a break more than her opponent in each set.
Tomas Berdych - 1.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: You have to say that both Tomas Berdych and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga were very, very impressive in their Quarter Final wins on Friday and the winner of this Semi Final is going to be a favourite to win the title in Rotterdam. The oddsmakers are finding it difficult to separate the players, but I quite liked Tomas Berdych and am surprised that he is not being asked to cover a bigger number than the one he is.
The layers have placed Berdych as the slight favourite over Tsonga and the key for both players is going to be the serve and who can bring their forehand into play the quickest. I do think Berdych has the edge off the backhand wing, and I do think the Czech player can get into the Tsonga backhand wing and earn errors from that wing or at least earn a short ball or two.
It is Berdych who has a pretty dominant head to head advantage over Tsonga, but their match earlier this season in Doha was much closer than the final score indicates. It was Berdych's efficiency at taking his break points which won him the match, but Berdych will come in with the mental advantage.
Of course Tsonga snapped a poor run against Marin Cilic in the Quarter Final but I do feel he had to invest more in that match both physically and mentally than Berdych has at any time this week. That can take a toll on a player and Berdych certainly plays well enough in Rotterdam to take advantage of that if Tsonga is a little flatter than he was on Friday.
It will likely be a close match between these players in their current form, but I will look for Berdych to just break down the Tsonga backhand enough to come through with a three set win as he moves through to the Final.
David Goffin - 3.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: I am 0-2 backing against Pierre-Hugues Herbert this week, but I am going to go in against the Doubles expert one more time. His win over Dominic Thiem was very impressive in the Quarter Final and David Goffin is at the back end of a second long week on the Tour so this might be a dangerous spot to go against the Frenchman.
However I can't help think Herbert has overachieved massively to this point and this is a player who hasn't had a lot of success as a Singles player this level on the Tour. His overall statistics over the last year highlight that feeling and I think someone like Goffin is a superior returner to anyone Herbert has played so far this week.
Of course I am concerned about the amount of tennis Goffin has played over the last two weeks as well as the long match he had with Grigor Dimitrov in the Quarter Final. His return game is going to cause Herbert some problems in this one if he is feeling physically up to the battle and I think Goffin can have the success that others have lacked when it comes to converting the break points that head his way.
If Goffin is returning up to his ability, he should find the breaks to win this match in straight sets and I will be looking for him to do that and end a run that will take Herbert back inside the top 100 of the World Rankings.
Nikoloz Basilashvili - 1.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: The Mikhail Kukushkin run to the Semi Final in Memphis has really come out of left field when you think he had lost nine of his last eleven matches on the Tour. That included early losses in the Challenger tournaments held in Dallas and San Francisco over the last two weeks and neither against opponents of real note.
Partly Kukushkin has been the beneficiary of a good draw and I think Nikoloz Basilashvili is the toughest opponent he will have played. The Georgian reached the Semi Final in Sofia last week which has clearly given him some confidence and he is yet to drop a set here.
The serve for both men is going to be very important as both have been returning effectively so far this week. I was a little concerned for Basilashvili that he had a long week in Sofia before heading to Memphis and whether that would take a toll on him, but he has been really focused and looking strong.
There have been times over the years where I have looked at Kukushkin and expected him to make a real move in the World Rankings with some of the talent he has. This week might be the start of his recovery having slipped outside the top 100 of the World Rankings, but I am expecting Basilashvili to have a little more confidence at the big moments and continue his own fine run here.
Ryan Harrison - 2.5 games v Donald Young: Ryan Harrison is moving back up the World Rankings ad has followed up his title win at the Dallas Challenger by reaching the Semi Final in Memphis. Harrison has now won eight matches in a row and has won all sixteen sets he has played in that time, while only two of those sets has seen an opponent get to five games.
The wins this week have been impressive and you can't discount the confidence Harrison should have coming into this Semi Final. He will need to produce some of his best tennis to win this match, but he has shown he is in a hot vein of form and I do think he will get the better of Donald Young.
Not for the first time this week, Young became a player who won a match in which he lost more points than his opponent and he was a touch fortunate to get the better of John Isner. I was impressed with some of the big time tennis Young played in the clutch, but Isner should have won that match.
This match is a different feeling for Young than his last two as there should be more rallies involved between the players. The last two matches have been against big servers where Young had to stay in the match mentally, although he will also need to adjust to the fact that Harrison is a far better rallier than Isner or Opelka.
Harrison has won four of their last five matches and I do think he will get the better of Young in this one. Young has won two matches here where his opponent has won more points than him and I think Harrison is serving and returning well enough to capitalise on the chances that Adrian Mannarino and John Isner allowed to slip through their fingers and Harrison can win this one 6-4, 6-4.
Alexandr Dolgopolov + 1.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: The first Semi Final in Buenos Aires looks a very good one between two players who have produced some solid tennis this week. Both Pablo Carreno Busta and Alexandr Dolgopolov have to feel they have produced enough good quality tennis to get to the Final here, but I like the underdog with the games.
Dolgopolov has been serving really well this week and won at least 70% of the points behind serve in all three matches played. He has not prevented the breaks of serve, but that can happen on the clay courts and won't concern me too much as reaching that percentage of points won does put a lot of pressure on the opponent.
The win over Pablo Cuevas has been particularly impressive from Dolgopolov and that form makes him a dangerous opponent for Carreno Busta on Saturday. To be fair to the Spaniard, he has played well too and looked after his serve for the most part, but someone as flashy as Dolgopolov can be very difficult to read.
Carreno Busta will hope his steady attitude will be enough to see him through, but I do think Dolgopolov might have the edge in the serving department and has shown he can hit through the court here. We might see these two go deep into a third set, but I will take the games and look for Dolgopolov to earn the potential upset.
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: This is not going to be an easy match for Kei Nishikori because he will be playing against the crowd as well as his opponent in the first Semi Final in Buenos Aires. Over the years Carlos Berlocq has managed to get under the skin of many an opponent, although I think Nishikori is not going to outwardly shown any real emotion, and the crowd will cheer every error from the top Seed which can also begin to frustrate players.
However you have to think Nishikori is going to be significantly stronger in the rallies than Berlocq and I think it will be a big surprise if he is not able to control this match. I do think Berlocq will create a few break point chances of his own because of the lack of cheap points that Nishikori is going to get, but this is easily the best opponent the home favourite will have faced so far.
This is also the same Berlocq who only a couple of weeks ago was dismantled over the first two sets by Andreas Seppi and I think Nishikori is going to be too good for him. The question with this number of games is whether Nishikori is going to have too many sloppy service games to cover, but he hasn't served badly since the opening set here this week.
It will be a grind at times, but Nishikori should be able to wear down Berlocq with his quality from the baseline and I expect the top Seed to reach Sunday's Final with a 6-3, 6-4 win.
MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Nikoloz Basilashvili - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison - 2.5 Gams @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov + 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Coral (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 10-18, - 17.16 Units (56 Units Staked, - 30.64% Yield)
Friday, 17 February 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (February 17th)
I bloody hate weeks like this one where I have seemingly got the magical touch of zero luck coupled with bad picks which has meant rather than splitting those and have a small loss, I have been hit with the perfect storm of both things going against me and seeing me in a big hole after four days of the week.
It has been a 'punch a wall in a hole' kind of week which has begun with Feliciano Lopez dominating Pierre-Hugues Herbert and somehow still losing that match. Thursday was another example as both Marin Cilic and Steve Johnson were broken serving to stay in a set.
They still won their matches, but annoyingly both breaks of serve to drop sets meant they missed the cover by a single game. They were the right picks, but I didn't get a break with them, while Barbora Strycova somehow failed to not only cover, but even beat Samantha Stosur outright despite looking the superior player in the last two sets.
It all means that the season totals have once again looked like to move into a negative position as I have somehow moved into a 20 unit hole for the week. Just thinking about how I have got into that position bothers me massively, so I decided to take some time out before making the picks for Friday. This week has become all about signs of recovery to take into next week, but I do need a lot more fortune at the big points than I have got to this point of the week.
Those breaks of serve look like they hurt a lot more now don't they?(!)
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 games v Shuai Zhang: The tournament in Doha has been really badly affected by the rainy weather that there are three Quarter Finals and two Semi Finals scheduled for Friday, although good luck getting them all through with plenty of rain forecasted for Friday.
If they do get through the Quarter Final line up, I do think Karolina Pliskova is going to have too much for Shuai Zhang especially with the way in which she has been serving all through 2017.
That serve was a big reason she was able to see off Caroline Garcia in the Second Round and Pliskova will now be a little more aware of the conditions at play. She is facing an opponent off a big upset as Shaui Zhang beat Garbine Muguruza in her Second Round match, but Zhang was very much reliant on being able to break serve.
Her own serve was well attacked by Muguruza and it is a different pressure when the opponent is serving as big as Pliskova is. The stop-start nature of the week may have affected Zhang even more than most with the mental affect it can have on players having come on and off court. There are times when Zhang can serve very well, but she is going to be under siege by the Pliskova serve and I think that will lead to a 6-3, 6-4 win.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Martin Klizan: The defending Champion has made it through to the Quarter Final with an up and down week to this point, but Martin Klizan has to be very confident. There must be something in the water in Rotterdam that Klizan really enjoys, especially as he has been on the right side of 'Lady Luck' over the last couple of seasons.
He will need more of the same, but also needs to raise his level if he is going to beat Tomas Berdych who has had a couple of decent wins here. As I said yesterday, I do think Berdych is a declining force on the Tour these days, but he showed against Richard Gasquet that he is still a capable player and I do think he is stronger than Klizan.
Opposing Klizan with this many games being laid is not an easy choice but at odds against I am happy enough to go against him. He might like the conditions in Rotterdam, but you would perhaps only consider the win over Gael Monfils as being one of a player of a similar level as Berdych.
The Klizan serve can be dangerous too when he is firing and he hits the ball very flat and very hard, but mentally the Slovakian is not always in the match. He has lost all his previous matches against Berdych who hits a pretty heavy ball himself and I will look for the former Champion here to beat the current defending Champion 6-4, 6-3.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 1.5 games v Marin Cilic: The head to head might be dominated by Marin Cilic, but Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has been playing the better tennis in 2017 and I think he can break his run of losses to the Croatian in this Quarter Final. It is Cilic who has won four in a row against Tsonga including a straight sets win over Rotterdam, but the last of those came in September 2015 and Cilic has been a little vulnerable this week.
The poor losses he has suffered to open this season has to have had an affect on his mentality and you could see that in his win over Borna Coric in the Second Round. Cilic mentally checked out in the second set and you can't do that against someone as strong as Tsonga who can serve big and use heavy groundstrokes to set himself up.
I have to note that the last four matches have been won by Cilic and each time he has been the underdog so I don't want to underestimate him in this Quarter Final. However the 2017 season has not really produced too many memorable moments and Tsonga has been serving well and reaching the business end of tournaments.
The one negative for Tsonga has been he has not been able to win one of the big matches against players that were expected to challenge him. Losses to Tomas Berdych, Stan Wawrinka and Alexander Zverev are not bad ones, but I do wonder if he believes he can win a match of this magnitude which is a worry.
However I think the pieces are there for Tsonga to do that in this Quarter Final and I am looking for him to come through in two tight sets.
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v David Goffin: A few days ago it was David Goffin versus Grigor Dimitrov in the Sofia Final and it was the Bulgarian who won which means he has won all six previous matches against Goffin. Two of those have come this season as Dimitrov has won all five sets they have competed in against one another.
I am looking for Dimitrov to frank those two wins with another in Rotterdam as he has made his way through the draw with a little more comfort than Goffin and has looked physically strong. Dimitrov has tremendous confidence having won two titles already and reached the Semi Final at the Australian Open and I do think the match up with Goffin does work for him.
Dimitrov will know the kind of rhythm that he will get for Goffin and that will allow him to settle into his own game which is a little stronger than the Belgian's. However the conditions are a little slower here in Rotterdam which means Dimitrov will have to work a little harder to win his points, although he has no fear coming forward and taking the ball over which is going to be important.
The Dimitrov serve is the stronger of the two and I think he can produce a similar win to the Sofia Final which will see him cover this number.
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: This has been a strong week for Pierre-Hugues Herbert and a surprising one too when you think of the conditions he is playing in here in Rotterdam. Herbert was more than a little fortunate to get through his First Round match against Feliciano Lopez and I do think he will need 'Lady Luck' behind him if he is going to knock off Dominic Thiem.
It hasn't been the best start to 2017 for Thiem even if he is playing in his third Quarter Final already. Some of the losses have been disappointing and he has made some of his wins a little harder to come by than they perhaps should have been. That does mean it is dangerous to back him to cover a big number in this Quarter Final but he is the better player on the slower conditions and can get the better of the big serving Herbert.
Everyone should have the memo on what the Number 1 Doubles player in the world is going to want to do- there will be plenty of serve-volleying on display, but Thiem has to avoid getting himself worked up as much as Lopez did. Keep your returns low at the net from the first serve and out-rally Herbert from the back of the court when you do get a chance to see a second serve by attacking it immediately.
Thiem is certainly a better all-around player than Lopez in my opinion, but he can sometimes be over-aggressive which leads to more errors and that is going to be costly against Herbert. Instead it is better to look to take something off the ball and make sure the accuracy is there to put pressure on the Frenchman who has played a lot of tennis here already this week.
I do think Herbert will be plenty confident having won four Singles matches to reach the Quarter Final, but physical tiredness could be a problem. I am looking for Thiem to wear him down with a break late in the first and early in the second to move through 6-3, 6-4.
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 games v Gerald Melzer: There is no doubting it can be a difficult task to trust Alexandr Dolgopolov to win matches in comfortable fashion because he is more of a showman than someone who cares about knuckling down to win matches. No one can doubt the talent he possesses from his racquet, but you can doubt the shot selection at times as Dolgopolov goes for a flashy winner than the percentage shot.
That also makes Dolgopolov an exciting player to watch, but I make a point of not watching him when I have picked him to win a match. I have no need to become frustrated when Dolgopolov decides to make a random decision at a big point that can prove so costly, although his performances so far in Buenos Aires suggests he is focused on picking up some vital Ranking points.
Dolgopolov is far better than his Number 66 World Ranking suggests, but he can't afford to overlook Gerald Melzer just because he is higher in the World Ranking. Melzer has had two solid wins so far this week and he showed in Doha when taking Andy Murray to two tight sets before losing that he is capable of handling himself on a tennis court with the clay being his favoured surface.
Someone like Dolgopolov is much more talented than Melzer, but the Austrian will put in the hard work which makes him dangerous. He isn't often beaten easily and Melzer can be tough to break when he is on top form, but I do think Dolgopolov gets the better of him. So far it has been a very good serving week for Dolgopolov too and I can see some flashy winners on the return games can lead to a couple of breaks and a 6-4, 6-4 win.
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 games v Joao Sousa: I will admit it was something of a surprise to see Kei Nishikori take his place in one of the Golden Swing tournaments down in South America rather than the hard court event that is taking place in Rotterdam this week. However I also think Nishikori is a very confident clay court player and I am expecting him to win the title in Buenos Aires this week.
Joao Sousa may have something to say about that as a pretty handy clay court player himself, although he has struggled when facing the best players in the world. Sousa is now 2-23 when facing a player in the top ten of the World Rankings and one of those wins is when Nishikori retired from their match in Tokyo last season.
The Portuguese player has had two impressive wins this week and he is probably at his best on the clay courts which makes him a danger to Nishikori. However Sousa is not going to overwhelm you with big serves and a lot of the points will be decided in rallies where you would expect Nishikori to win a majority of them. That should lead to break points and I do think Nishikori has the stronger serve which means he can at least dictate the rallies a little more than Sousa will be able to.
Nishikori did take his time to get used to the conditions in his win in the Second Round, but he will be much better for having that match under his belt. I have a lot of respect for Sousa who seems to get plenty out of himself to be in the position he is on the Tour, but I think Nishikori is going to be a little too good for too long and can win this match 7-5, 6-3.
John Isner - 2.5 games v Donald Young: There are a couple of players at the top of the Tour who have regressed over the last twelve months and I do think one of those is John Isner. I don't think Isner is able to play like Ivo Karlovic and look to serve-volley every time, while the serve seems like it is being broken more than it used to be.
The stats don't completely back that up except for one really big area and that is the percentage of break points being saved by Isner in 2016. It is down by around 5%, which might not seem a lot, but it is when you think of the relatively poor return game he has.
Going down a break is not an option for Isner because he generally won't retrieve those sets which means backing him to cover any number is difficult. However I do think he can do that against Donald Young in this Quarter Final, a player he has beaten four times previously and would have covered this number each time.
Young is enjoying his best tournament of 2017 so far and he has experienced playing someone like Isner when beating Reilly Opelka in the Second Round. The left handed American served really effectively in that match, although I do think Isner is more experienced than Opelka and may get a few more balls back in play to try and extract errors from Young.
The concern for me is that Young has broken Isner in their last two matches and so could be a threat if the big American is not serving as well as he has in the past. However I think the mental edge plays a part in this one and I am looking for Isner to come through 7-6, 6-4 and move into a Semi Final in Memphis.
MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-15, - 21.22 Units (40 Units Staked, - 53.05% Yield)
It has been a 'punch a wall in a hole' kind of week which has begun with Feliciano Lopez dominating Pierre-Hugues Herbert and somehow still losing that match. Thursday was another example as both Marin Cilic and Steve Johnson were broken serving to stay in a set.
They still won their matches, but annoyingly both breaks of serve to drop sets meant they missed the cover by a single game. They were the right picks, but I didn't get a break with them, while Barbora Strycova somehow failed to not only cover, but even beat Samantha Stosur outright despite looking the superior player in the last two sets.
It all means that the season totals have once again looked like to move into a negative position as I have somehow moved into a 20 unit hole for the week. Just thinking about how I have got into that position bothers me massively, so I decided to take some time out before making the picks for Friday. This week has become all about signs of recovery to take into next week, but I do need a lot more fortune at the big points than I have got to this point of the week.
Those breaks of serve look like they hurt a lot more now don't they?(!)
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 games v Shuai Zhang: The tournament in Doha has been really badly affected by the rainy weather that there are three Quarter Finals and two Semi Finals scheduled for Friday, although good luck getting them all through with plenty of rain forecasted for Friday.
If they do get through the Quarter Final line up, I do think Karolina Pliskova is going to have too much for Shuai Zhang especially with the way in which she has been serving all through 2017.
That serve was a big reason she was able to see off Caroline Garcia in the Second Round and Pliskova will now be a little more aware of the conditions at play. She is facing an opponent off a big upset as Shaui Zhang beat Garbine Muguruza in her Second Round match, but Zhang was very much reliant on being able to break serve.
Her own serve was well attacked by Muguruza and it is a different pressure when the opponent is serving as big as Pliskova is. The stop-start nature of the week may have affected Zhang even more than most with the mental affect it can have on players having come on and off court. There are times when Zhang can serve very well, but she is going to be under siege by the Pliskova serve and I think that will lead to a 6-3, 6-4 win.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Martin Klizan: The defending Champion has made it through to the Quarter Final with an up and down week to this point, but Martin Klizan has to be very confident. There must be something in the water in Rotterdam that Klizan really enjoys, especially as he has been on the right side of 'Lady Luck' over the last couple of seasons.
He will need more of the same, but also needs to raise his level if he is going to beat Tomas Berdych who has had a couple of decent wins here. As I said yesterday, I do think Berdych is a declining force on the Tour these days, but he showed against Richard Gasquet that he is still a capable player and I do think he is stronger than Klizan.
Opposing Klizan with this many games being laid is not an easy choice but at odds against I am happy enough to go against him. He might like the conditions in Rotterdam, but you would perhaps only consider the win over Gael Monfils as being one of a player of a similar level as Berdych.
The Klizan serve can be dangerous too when he is firing and he hits the ball very flat and very hard, but mentally the Slovakian is not always in the match. He has lost all his previous matches against Berdych who hits a pretty heavy ball himself and I will look for the former Champion here to beat the current defending Champion 6-4, 6-3.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 1.5 games v Marin Cilic: The head to head might be dominated by Marin Cilic, but Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has been playing the better tennis in 2017 and I think he can break his run of losses to the Croatian in this Quarter Final. It is Cilic who has won four in a row against Tsonga including a straight sets win over Rotterdam, but the last of those came in September 2015 and Cilic has been a little vulnerable this week.
The poor losses he has suffered to open this season has to have had an affect on his mentality and you could see that in his win over Borna Coric in the Second Round. Cilic mentally checked out in the second set and you can't do that against someone as strong as Tsonga who can serve big and use heavy groundstrokes to set himself up.
I have to note that the last four matches have been won by Cilic and each time he has been the underdog so I don't want to underestimate him in this Quarter Final. However the 2017 season has not really produced too many memorable moments and Tsonga has been serving well and reaching the business end of tournaments.
The one negative for Tsonga has been he has not been able to win one of the big matches against players that were expected to challenge him. Losses to Tomas Berdych, Stan Wawrinka and Alexander Zverev are not bad ones, but I do wonder if he believes he can win a match of this magnitude which is a worry.
However I think the pieces are there for Tsonga to do that in this Quarter Final and I am looking for him to come through in two tight sets.
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v David Goffin: A few days ago it was David Goffin versus Grigor Dimitrov in the Sofia Final and it was the Bulgarian who won which means he has won all six previous matches against Goffin. Two of those have come this season as Dimitrov has won all five sets they have competed in against one another.
I am looking for Dimitrov to frank those two wins with another in Rotterdam as he has made his way through the draw with a little more comfort than Goffin and has looked physically strong. Dimitrov has tremendous confidence having won two titles already and reached the Semi Final at the Australian Open and I do think the match up with Goffin does work for him.
Dimitrov will know the kind of rhythm that he will get for Goffin and that will allow him to settle into his own game which is a little stronger than the Belgian's. However the conditions are a little slower here in Rotterdam which means Dimitrov will have to work a little harder to win his points, although he has no fear coming forward and taking the ball over which is going to be important.
The Dimitrov serve is the stronger of the two and I think he can produce a similar win to the Sofia Final which will see him cover this number.
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: This has been a strong week for Pierre-Hugues Herbert and a surprising one too when you think of the conditions he is playing in here in Rotterdam. Herbert was more than a little fortunate to get through his First Round match against Feliciano Lopez and I do think he will need 'Lady Luck' behind him if he is going to knock off Dominic Thiem.
It hasn't been the best start to 2017 for Thiem even if he is playing in his third Quarter Final already. Some of the losses have been disappointing and he has made some of his wins a little harder to come by than they perhaps should have been. That does mean it is dangerous to back him to cover a big number in this Quarter Final but he is the better player on the slower conditions and can get the better of the big serving Herbert.
Everyone should have the memo on what the Number 1 Doubles player in the world is going to want to do- there will be plenty of serve-volleying on display, but Thiem has to avoid getting himself worked up as much as Lopez did. Keep your returns low at the net from the first serve and out-rally Herbert from the back of the court when you do get a chance to see a second serve by attacking it immediately.
Thiem is certainly a better all-around player than Lopez in my opinion, but he can sometimes be over-aggressive which leads to more errors and that is going to be costly against Herbert. Instead it is better to look to take something off the ball and make sure the accuracy is there to put pressure on the Frenchman who has played a lot of tennis here already this week.
I do think Herbert will be plenty confident having won four Singles matches to reach the Quarter Final, but physical tiredness could be a problem. I am looking for Thiem to wear him down with a break late in the first and early in the second to move through 6-3, 6-4.
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 games v Gerald Melzer: There is no doubting it can be a difficult task to trust Alexandr Dolgopolov to win matches in comfortable fashion because he is more of a showman than someone who cares about knuckling down to win matches. No one can doubt the talent he possesses from his racquet, but you can doubt the shot selection at times as Dolgopolov goes for a flashy winner than the percentage shot.
That also makes Dolgopolov an exciting player to watch, but I make a point of not watching him when I have picked him to win a match. I have no need to become frustrated when Dolgopolov decides to make a random decision at a big point that can prove so costly, although his performances so far in Buenos Aires suggests he is focused on picking up some vital Ranking points.
Dolgopolov is far better than his Number 66 World Ranking suggests, but he can't afford to overlook Gerald Melzer just because he is higher in the World Ranking. Melzer has had two solid wins so far this week and he showed in Doha when taking Andy Murray to two tight sets before losing that he is capable of handling himself on a tennis court with the clay being his favoured surface.
Someone like Dolgopolov is much more talented than Melzer, but the Austrian will put in the hard work which makes him dangerous. He isn't often beaten easily and Melzer can be tough to break when he is on top form, but I do think Dolgopolov gets the better of him. So far it has been a very good serving week for Dolgopolov too and I can see some flashy winners on the return games can lead to a couple of breaks and a 6-4, 6-4 win.
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 games v Joao Sousa: I will admit it was something of a surprise to see Kei Nishikori take his place in one of the Golden Swing tournaments down in South America rather than the hard court event that is taking place in Rotterdam this week. However I also think Nishikori is a very confident clay court player and I am expecting him to win the title in Buenos Aires this week.
Joao Sousa may have something to say about that as a pretty handy clay court player himself, although he has struggled when facing the best players in the world. Sousa is now 2-23 when facing a player in the top ten of the World Rankings and one of those wins is when Nishikori retired from their match in Tokyo last season.
The Portuguese player has had two impressive wins this week and he is probably at his best on the clay courts which makes him a danger to Nishikori. However Sousa is not going to overwhelm you with big serves and a lot of the points will be decided in rallies where you would expect Nishikori to win a majority of them. That should lead to break points and I do think Nishikori has the stronger serve which means he can at least dictate the rallies a little more than Sousa will be able to.
Nishikori did take his time to get used to the conditions in his win in the Second Round, but he will be much better for having that match under his belt. I have a lot of respect for Sousa who seems to get plenty out of himself to be in the position he is on the Tour, but I think Nishikori is going to be a little too good for too long and can win this match 7-5, 6-3.
John Isner - 2.5 games v Donald Young: There are a couple of players at the top of the Tour who have regressed over the last twelve months and I do think one of those is John Isner. I don't think Isner is able to play like Ivo Karlovic and look to serve-volley every time, while the serve seems like it is being broken more than it used to be.
The stats don't completely back that up except for one really big area and that is the percentage of break points being saved by Isner in 2016. It is down by around 5%, which might not seem a lot, but it is when you think of the relatively poor return game he has.
Going down a break is not an option for Isner because he generally won't retrieve those sets which means backing him to cover any number is difficult. However I do think he can do that against Donald Young in this Quarter Final, a player he has beaten four times previously and would have covered this number each time.
Young is enjoying his best tournament of 2017 so far and he has experienced playing someone like Isner when beating Reilly Opelka in the Second Round. The left handed American served really effectively in that match, although I do think Isner is more experienced than Opelka and may get a few more balls back in play to try and extract errors from Young.
The concern for me is that Young has broken Isner in their last two matches and so could be a threat if the big American is not serving as well as he has in the past. However I think the mental edge plays a part in this one and I am looking for Isner to come through 7-6, 6-4 and move into a Semi Final in Memphis.
MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-15, - 21.22 Units (40 Units Staked, - 53.05% Yield)
Thursday, 16 February 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (February 16th)
Wednesday looked to be a much better day for the tennis picks, but some poor performances later in the day prevented the momentum from really getting behind those picks.
I had one retirement go for me and one against me on Wednesday too, but hopefully the remaining four days of the week can produce more winners and get the totals looking more respectable.
I know one of the players I backed, Jordan Thompson, made a point of mentioning some of the social media comments he received after his loss in Memphis. I find it embarrassing that people think it is 'normal' to insult these professional athletes because they feel slighted by them somehow.
Quick thing to always keep in mind- it bothers an athlete trying to reach the top of his profession way more than anyone else so try and be a grown up and NOT insult them on social media behind a hidden account. The same people who do that are usually the first to run up desperately looking for a selfie with these same players which just makes them out to be bigger tools than most would think.
It's something that won't go away and I am not of the belief that it is solely those who have lost money venting their disgust- Twitter is full of celebrities being insulted daily and I think it says a lot about where the human race has headed than anything else.
On Thursday it looks like another miserable day in Doha in terms of the weather and I am not sure this tournament is going to be able to avoid a Sunday finish. The next two days look like the rain is going to cause big problems and I can't see how the organisers will be able to get all the matches through despite the fact they have begun to put in some early starts.
The indoors events in Memphis and Rotterdam don't have those concerns and I am looking to have a much better day in the office than I have over the first three days.
Barbora Strycova - 2.5 games v Samantha Stosur: This Second Round match has already started in Doha and it is Samantha Stosur who held serve in her opening game before Barbora Strycova was at 40-40 on her own serve. While Strycova could be in danger of dropping her first service game and giving Stosur a break advantage, I still want to back the Czech player at this stage and look for her to come through this match.
There is a clear contrast in the form displayed by both Strycova and Stosur going into the tournament and I think the latter is short of confidence when the match potentially gets tight. Stosur's serve has been a big weapon for her over the years, but she is not getting as many easy points out of that as she is used to and someone like Strycova is capable of wearing her down in their time together on the court.
Strycova has had some solid runs in 2017 already and helped the Czech Republic move through to the Fed Cup Semi Final last weekend. She might not have anything that really stands out in her game, but Strycova is a solid player that won't give a lot away and I think having a chance to play this match after a rest thanks to the rain on Wednesday works to her favour.
She has won both previous hard court matches against Stosur including in Cincinnati a few months ago and Strycova can make enough balls back in play to see Stosur almost self-destruct in this one. I will back the higher Ranked player to find her way through to the Quarter Final behind a 6-4, 6-4 win.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 1.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: With all the rain forecasted for Doha, I am not sure this Second Round match is going to find the time to be completed on Thursday. The problem with picking matches that potentially could be spread over two days is that it can give a player a real opportunity to change the momentum of how things are going on court by getting in the locker room and having their coach indicate what tactics need to be changed.
On the basis of the rain not being an issue before this match is completed, I do think Agnieszka Radwanska can get the better of Caroline Wozniacki. It is Radwanska who beat Wozniacki comfortably in their last couple of matches, although my concern has to be the little tennis she has played since the Australian Open.
An early exit in that event means it will have been one month since Radwanska last played a competitive match and that is where Wozniacki's First Round win over Kiki Bertens could be very important. Prior to Doha, Wozniacki had not been on the Tour since her own Third Round exit at the Australian Open and so having a match under her belt could be a huge advantage.
It was Wozniacki who just about beat Radwanska in three sets in their first meeting in 2016 in Tokyo, but that was quickly followed by two very convincing wins for the Pole in Wuhan and Beijing. I will admit that Radwanska is the one player that can frustrate me as much as any in the top 20 of either Tours because she can be so good on one day and then struggle to get any kind of power on her groundstrokes on another.
The match up with Wozniacki should produce plenty of long rallies and it will likely be tighter than the last two matches. However I still think Radwanska can get the better of Wozniacki and will look for her to cover this small number.
Tomas Berdych - 1.5 games v Richard Gasquet: I am of the belief that Tomas Berdych is on his slide down the World Rankings as he has hit 31 years old and the serve is not as potent as it once was. That will mean he is on my list as one of those players that might be a little over-rated in the coming months until the market readjusts, but I am backing him to beat Richard Gasquet in this Second Round match in Rotterdam.
The conditions on this surface may not be ideal for Berdych because of the slower nature, but he is facing an opponent who has spent a lot of time on the court over the last ten days. You have to be impressed with the way Gasquet came back to beat Victor Troicki in the First Round on Wednesday, but he was aided by the Serb and I am not convinced Berdych will be as generous.
They do tend to play some close matches and the head to head between these players shows Berdych is only slightly ahead with 8 wins to 7 over Gasquet. That includes in their last couple of matches to get back in front and I think it will be the physical strength of Berdych that allows him to come through this one.
Over the years Gasquet has not always enjoyed the conditions in Rotterdam himself and I think both players will be able to get into the rallies and try to dictate proceedings from the back of the court. I wouldn't be that surprised if we did need a third set to separate these players, but the Berdych tank should be a little fuller having had a day of rest and not having reached the business end of a tournament a few days ago like Gasquet.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Borna Coric: This has not been a great start to the 2017 season for Marin Cilic who has suffered some really disappointing losses and the top Seed in Rotterdam is looking to get things going in the new season. The losses to the likes of Jozef Kovalik, Dan Evans and Dustin Brown does not give me a lot of confidence in Cilic, but I do think he can get the better of his compatriot Borna Coric in the Second Round.
As tough as it has been for Cilic, it has been really difficult for the talented youngster Coric who is coming off a long injury lay off. In fact his win in the First Round is the first Coric has had since beating Rafael Nadal at the Cincinnati Masters although his injury surfaced in the next match against Marin Cilic.
That means Coric had lost six straight matches coming into the tournament in Rotterdam and some of the ways he has been defeated to the likes of Hyeon Chung and Aljaz Bedene is a real concern. The win over Karen Khachanov in the First Round will give Coric some confidence, but he will have to be a lot better if he is going to beat someone like Cilic who can serve big and also has plenty of aggression on the return.
Playing an older compatriot can be a tough test for players on the Tour as they would have looked up to them growing up and that would have been a problem for a healthy and confident Coric. While I think he is physically ready to go, mentally I still believe Coric is finding his way back into things on the court and I think Cilic will prove too good in this match and find a 6-4, 6-3 success to move through.
David Goffin - 4.5 games v Robin Haase: This is a home tournament for Robin Haase with his birthplace not too far from Rotterdam, although he hasn't had the best success in the event. A win over Florian Mayer in the First Round means Haase is now 4-8 in Rotterdam and he has had two days to rest and get ready to face David Goffin in the Second Round.
The Haase World Ranking does fluctuate as the Dutchman is capable of putting in a few strong weeks on the Tour at the Challenger level once he slips away from the main draw entries into ATP events. Aside from a win over David Ferrer as the underdog, Haase has mainly gone about beating those players he should be and losing to those he shouldn't in 2017 and one of those losses came to Goffin in Doha.
Goffin is off a long week where he reached the Final in Sofia, but he looked solid enough in his win over Andrey Kuznetsov in the First Round on Wednesday. The Belgian player will look to be a little better as he moves through the draw but the conditions in Rotterdam should suit him as long as he isn't feeling physically tired from a week of tennis last week.
The reason Goffin is as high in the World Ranking as he is can be down to backing up his big weeks on the Tour and I do think he will be too good for Haase. 5 of the 8 losses Haase has had in Rotterdam would have seen him fail to cover this number of games and Goffin was able to punish the Dutchman's second serve when they met in Doha.
Doing that again should help the Belgian move through with a 6-4, 6-3 win in this match.
Steve Johnson - 3.5 games v Tim Smyczek: When these two American players last met in 2014, Steve Johnson was beaten fairly comfortably by Tim Smyczek but he is a much improved player these days. While I do think Johnson needs to work on his returning game, he is playing an opponent that doesn't have the biggest serve and I think Johnson's own serve can put plenty of pressure on Smyczek.
Only Davis Cup action has been on the schedule for Johnson since his Second Round loss at the Australian Open, but he was also a Semi Finalist in Auckland. This is a match against an opponent who spends the majority of his time below the main ATP level of tournament and I think Johnson will be too strong for Smyczek.
Asking Johnson to cover spreads can be difficult when his return game is a little loose, but I think Smyczek is going to have to feel the pressure if the former is serving as well as he can. That will mean Smyczek is pushing to win the points he needs to and that can lead to mistakes, while Johnson has a bigger forehand if the groundstrokes go in that direction.
Johnson can't give Smyczek any encouragement with loose service games, but if he can look after that aspect of his game, I think he will come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win over Smyczek in this Second Round match in Memphis.
MY PICKS: Barbora Strycova - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-10, - 13.04 Units (28 Units Staked, - 46.57% Yield)
I had one retirement go for me and one against me on Wednesday too, but hopefully the remaining four days of the week can produce more winners and get the totals looking more respectable.
I know one of the players I backed, Jordan Thompson, made a point of mentioning some of the social media comments he received after his loss in Memphis. I find it embarrassing that people think it is 'normal' to insult these professional athletes because they feel slighted by them somehow.
Quick thing to always keep in mind- it bothers an athlete trying to reach the top of his profession way more than anyone else so try and be a grown up and NOT insult them on social media behind a hidden account. The same people who do that are usually the first to run up desperately looking for a selfie with these same players which just makes them out to be bigger tools than most would think.
It's something that won't go away and I am not of the belief that it is solely those who have lost money venting their disgust- Twitter is full of celebrities being insulted daily and I think it says a lot about where the human race has headed than anything else.
On Thursday it looks like another miserable day in Doha in terms of the weather and I am not sure this tournament is going to be able to avoid a Sunday finish. The next two days look like the rain is going to cause big problems and I can't see how the organisers will be able to get all the matches through despite the fact they have begun to put in some early starts.
The indoors events in Memphis and Rotterdam don't have those concerns and I am looking to have a much better day in the office than I have over the first three days.
Barbora Strycova - 2.5 games v Samantha Stosur: This Second Round match has already started in Doha and it is Samantha Stosur who held serve in her opening game before Barbora Strycova was at 40-40 on her own serve. While Strycova could be in danger of dropping her first service game and giving Stosur a break advantage, I still want to back the Czech player at this stage and look for her to come through this match.
There is a clear contrast in the form displayed by both Strycova and Stosur going into the tournament and I think the latter is short of confidence when the match potentially gets tight. Stosur's serve has been a big weapon for her over the years, but she is not getting as many easy points out of that as she is used to and someone like Strycova is capable of wearing her down in their time together on the court.
Strycova has had some solid runs in 2017 already and helped the Czech Republic move through to the Fed Cup Semi Final last weekend. She might not have anything that really stands out in her game, but Strycova is a solid player that won't give a lot away and I think having a chance to play this match after a rest thanks to the rain on Wednesday works to her favour.
She has won both previous hard court matches against Stosur including in Cincinnati a few months ago and Strycova can make enough balls back in play to see Stosur almost self-destruct in this one. I will back the higher Ranked player to find her way through to the Quarter Final behind a 6-4, 6-4 win.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 1.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: With all the rain forecasted for Doha, I am not sure this Second Round match is going to find the time to be completed on Thursday. The problem with picking matches that potentially could be spread over two days is that it can give a player a real opportunity to change the momentum of how things are going on court by getting in the locker room and having their coach indicate what tactics need to be changed.
On the basis of the rain not being an issue before this match is completed, I do think Agnieszka Radwanska can get the better of Caroline Wozniacki. It is Radwanska who beat Wozniacki comfortably in their last couple of matches, although my concern has to be the little tennis she has played since the Australian Open.
An early exit in that event means it will have been one month since Radwanska last played a competitive match and that is where Wozniacki's First Round win over Kiki Bertens could be very important. Prior to Doha, Wozniacki had not been on the Tour since her own Third Round exit at the Australian Open and so having a match under her belt could be a huge advantage.
It was Wozniacki who just about beat Radwanska in three sets in their first meeting in 2016 in Tokyo, but that was quickly followed by two very convincing wins for the Pole in Wuhan and Beijing. I will admit that Radwanska is the one player that can frustrate me as much as any in the top 20 of either Tours because she can be so good on one day and then struggle to get any kind of power on her groundstrokes on another.
The match up with Wozniacki should produce plenty of long rallies and it will likely be tighter than the last two matches. However I still think Radwanska can get the better of Wozniacki and will look for her to cover this small number.
Tomas Berdych - 1.5 games v Richard Gasquet: I am of the belief that Tomas Berdych is on his slide down the World Rankings as he has hit 31 years old and the serve is not as potent as it once was. That will mean he is on my list as one of those players that might be a little over-rated in the coming months until the market readjusts, but I am backing him to beat Richard Gasquet in this Second Round match in Rotterdam.
The conditions on this surface may not be ideal for Berdych because of the slower nature, but he is facing an opponent who has spent a lot of time on the court over the last ten days. You have to be impressed with the way Gasquet came back to beat Victor Troicki in the First Round on Wednesday, but he was aided by the Serb and I am not convinced Berdych will be as generous.
They do tend to play some close matches and the head to head between these players shows Berdych is only slightly ahead with 8 wins to 7 over Gasquet. That includes in their last couple of matches to get back in front and I think it will be the physical strength of Berdych that allows him to come through this one.
Over the years Gasquet has not always enjoyed the conditions in Rotterdam himself and I think both players will be able to get into the rallies and try to dictate proceedings from the back of the court. I wouldn't be that surprised if we did need a third set to separate these players, but the Berdych tank should be a little fuller having had a day of rest and not having reached the business end of a tournament a few days ago like Gasquet.
Marin Cilic - 3.5 games v Borna Coric: This has not been a great start to the 2017 season for Marin Cilic who has suffered some really disappointing losses and the top Seed in Rotterdam is looking to get things going in the new season. The losses to the likes of Jozef Kovalik, Dan Evans and Dustin Brown does not give me a lot of confidence in Cilic, but I do think he can get the better of his compatriot Borna Coric in the Second Round.
As tough as it has been for Cilic, it has been really difficult for the talented youngster Coric who is coming off a long injury lay off. In fact his win in the First Round is the first Coric has had since beating Rafael Nadal at the Cincinnati Masters although his injury surfaced in the next match against Marin Cilic.
That means Coric had lost six straight matches coming into the tournament in Rotterdam and some of the ways he has been defeated to the likes of Hyeon Chung and Aljaz Bedene is a real concern. The win over Karen Khachanov in the First Round will give Coric some confidence, but he will have to be a lot better if he is going to beat someone like Cilic who can serve big and also has plenty of aggression on the return.
Playing an older compatriot can be a tough test for players on the Tour as they would have looked up to them growing up and that would have been a problem for a healthy and confident Coric. While I think he is physically ready to go, mentally I still believe Coric is finding his way back into things on the court and I think Cilic will prove too good in this match and find a 6-4, 6-3 success to move through.
David Goffin - 4.5 games v Robin Haase: This is a home tournament for Robin Haase with his birthplace not too far from Rotterdam, although he hasn't had the best success in the event. A win over Florian Mayer in the First Round means Haase is now 4-8 in Rotterdam and he has had two days to rest and get ready to face David Goffin in the Second Round.
The Haase World Ranking does fluctuate as the Dutchman is capable of putting in a few strong weeks on the Tour at the Challenger level once he slips away from the main draw entries into ATP events. Aside from a win over David Ferrer as the underdog, Haase has mainly gone about beating those players he should be and losing to those he shouldn't in 2017 and one of those losses came to Goffin in Doha.
Goffin is off a long week where he reached the Final in Sofia, but he looked solid enough in his win over Andrey Kuznetsov in the First Round on Wednesday. The Belgian player will look to be a little better as he moves through the draw but the conditions in Rotterdam should suit him as long as he isn't feeling physically tired from a week of tennis last week.
The reason Goffin is as high in the World Ranking as he is can be down to backing up his big weeks on the Tour and I do think he will be too good for Haase. 5 of the 8 losses Haase has had in Rotterdam would have seen him fail to cover this number of games and Goffin was able to punish the Dutchman's second serve when they met in Doha.
Doing that again should help the Belgian move through with a 6-4, 6-3 win in this match.
Steve Johnson - 3.5 games v Tim Smyczek: When these two American players last met in 2014, Steve Johnson was beaten fairly comfortably by Tim Smyczek but he is a much improved player these days. While I do think Johnson needs to work on his returning game, he is playing an opponent that doesn't have the biggest serve and I think Johnson's own serve can put plenty of pressure on Smyczek.
Only Davis Cup action has been on the schedule for Johnson since his Second Round loss at the Australian Open, but he was also a Semi Finalist in Auckland. This is a match against an opponent who spends the majority of his time below the main ATP level of tournament and I think Johnson will be too strong for Smyczek.
Asking Johnson to cover spreads can be difficult when his return game is a little loose, but I think Smyczek is going to have to feel the pressure if the former is serving as well as he can. That will mean Smyczek is pushing to win the points he needs to and that can lead to mistakes, while Johnson has a bigger forehand if the groundstrokes go in that direction.
Johnson can't give Smyczek any encouragement with loose service games, but if he can look after that aspect of his game, I think he will come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win over Smyczek in this Second Round match in Memphis.
MY PICKS: Barbora Strycova - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-10, - 13.04 Units (28 Units Staked, - 46.57% Yield)
Wednesday, 15 February 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (February 15th)
It hasn't been a great week for the tennis picks over the first two days of the events that have been in action, but it has been better for me than for the organisers of the WTA Doha tournament. I don't think I have ever seen as much rain during the Middle East tournaments as I have in Doha this week with the first two days being brutalised by the showers that have been taking place through the day.
I did tweet out that I would be surprised if no one had the foresight to start the day's play earlier than they have in the last couple of days despite the obvious weather warnings. On Wednesday there are a few hours of play available during the day and so the tournament is opening at 11am for play rather than waiting until 3:30pm as they did on Tuesday which was a baffling decision when you consider the rain that was forecasted.
Of course the organisers have to make decisions that don't affect the spectators so perhaps there are reasons why they have begun play as late as they have, but it also means there is a significant backlog of matches that need to be completed. Quite a few players will have to play twice on Wednesday (as long as the weather holds out) and there is a full schedule in Doha as we only have one Second Round match set after two days of play.
It does mean I have three picks that have yet to be completed from the first two days and I am hoping all three will be in the books by Wednesday evening.
Buenos Aires has also been affected by rain in the first couple of days, but they are on schedule although there are more adverse conditions to negotiate in the remainder of the week. Thankfully both Rotterdam and Memphis can continue regardless as they are being played indoors, although I have gone a disappointing 0-4 so far in Rotterdam over the first two days.
All in all it has been a tough week, but there are plenty of days to get this turned around which I hope to begin on Wednesday.
Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: I am not going to say anything disrespectful about the way Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has played over the first six weeks of the 2017 season with the strong run at the Australian Open likely to give her plenty of confidence.
I am not sure if that has put her in a position where she is perhaps being over-rated in a match up against Dominika Cibulkova who has got the better of her in four of their six previous matches. As well as Pavlyuchenkova played at Melbourne Park and in her win over Jelena Jankovic in the First Round here, the Russia also has had losses to Eugenie Bouchard and Julia Goerges behind her in 2017.
The serve is the big weapon for Pavlyuchenkova but I am not the wet conditions in Doha are going to aid her and that is where Cibulkova will feel she can wear down her opponent. I do think Pavlyuchenkova has the edge when it comes to the power she can produce, but Cibulkova has plenty of pop too and is the better mover which might be a key in an event where the ball is a little slower coming through the court.
I do think it will be a close match and I think the Cibulkova serve continues to be an issue if Pavlyuchenkova is given the time to tee off on it. Their previous matches have been close and competitive affairs too which may make this number of games appealing on the underdog, but I think Cibulkova might just be a little stronger at key moments which gives her the edge.
There is every chance this match does not get onto court on Wednesday with the rain forecasted, but I am looking for Cibulkova to hold the edge and come through with the cover thanks to a couple of late breaks of serve.
David Goffin - 3.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: Reaching the Final of a tournament a few days ago can be an issue for players with fatigue a potential factor, but David Goffin has been given a couple of days to rest before the First Round match in Rotterdam. That should be sufficient time to get ready to face Andrey Kuznetsov, although Goffin has to be right on his game immediately.
Going up against this opponent can be difficult because Kuznetsov is willing to take every chance on the court and looks to hit the ball as hard as possible as soon as he can get an opportunity to do that. There can be times when he is virtually unplayable, even against the top players, but keeping the consistency going off the ground can be difficult for Kuznetsov.
If Goffin can weather some of the storm that Kuznetsov brings to the court, I do think he will find chances to break the serve. That is because the all or nothing kind of game Kuznetsov plays is behind both return and serve and once he makes a few misses he tends to give away a game or two that he shouldn't be.
My one issue has to be how vulnerable the Goffin serve can be at times because he isn't getting a lot of cheap points off the first serve. That means he is under pressure to keep his own consistency going, but Goffin produced some solid wins in Sofia last week and should have a little too much all around for Kuznetsov.
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Victor Troicki: There are a couple of players who reached the business end at the Sofia and Montpellier tournaments last week who have their First Round matches in Rotterdam on Wednesday. Another one is Richard Gasquet who came up short against Alexander Zverev in the Final in Montpellier and will be looking to bounce back immediately.
This is far from a straight forward First Round match for Gasquet as he goes up against Victor Troicki who reached the Quarter Final in Sofia last week before going down to Grigor Dimitrov. It has been a decent but unspectacular start to 2017 for Troicki who still has a big serve and heavy groundstrokes that can make him very dangerous when he is fully focused.
That focus can be inconsistent though and Troicki can sometimes have a few issues with Double Faults which hurt any player. He did reach the Quarter Final in Rotterdam last season though and this is not a tournament in which Gasquet has been able to produce his best tennis in previous visits.
Gasquet and Troicki will both need to serve better than they did last week, but I do think the better groundstrokes will come more consistently from the Frenchman's racquet. He has been one of the better indoor players over the last couple of years and I am looking for Gasquet to just edge out Troicki with a 6-4, 6-4 win to move into the Second Round.
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Mischa Zverev: Grigor Dimitrov did his best to almost blow the Sofia Final against David Goffin in the second set when getting very tight, but ultimately he has secured his second title of the 2017 season. Add in a run to the Semi Final at the Australian Open and the improvements in form over the last six months is sending the Bulgarian back towards the top ten of the World Rankings.
This is a big tournament for Dimitrov with the Ranking points on offer this week but following up a title win is one of the tougher tasks on the Tour. Tiredness can be a factor as well as the mental and emotional battle of recovering and getting ready for another big week on the Tour, but Dimitrov is a player with plenty of confidence behind him.
There should be plenty of eyes on this match after Mischa Zverev earned favourable headlines at the Australian Open where he beat the current World Number 1 Andy Murray, but he is yet to follow that up. Since that win over Murray, Zverev has lost to Roger Federer, Ruben Bemelmans and Kenny De Schepper and all in straight sets as opponents perhaps knuckle down a little harder against him.
Zverev does have a decent serve and his attacking intentions do make him a threat as he will look to get to the net and force opponents to pass him consistently. However that might not work to the best effect on this surface in Rotterdam and Dimitrov is certainly playing well enough to think he can dictate rallies and make Zverev play some very awkward volleys.
The key for Dimitrov will be serving well and making sure his opponent cannot just rush the net by attacking the second serve. If Dimitrov can do that, I think the Bulgarian will earn a break more in each set and come through 6-4, 6-4 in this one.
Gilles Muller + 2.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: It was a little disappointing seeing Jo-Wilfried Tsonga just have a few problems with the conditions in Rotterdam as well as his young opponent Stefanos Tsitsapis. Some of the credit has to be given to the youngster, but Tsonga did not serve as effectively as he would have liked and that led to three breaks against him.
He will need to be better in the Second Round when Tsonga takes on big serving Gilles Muller who made much lighter work of a Wild Card opponent on Tuesday. Muller has also challenged Tsonga in their previous matches and actually has a winning record against the Frenchman which should give him confidence.
While the conditions might not be that quick here in Rotterdam, a lot of what Muller does is based on the accuracy of the first serve and Tsonga has limitations on the return. He can't just chip the ball back into play because Muller is very comfortable coming forward and looking to put away volleys.
The slower surface does make it harder to come forward, but Muller relies on accuracy which stretches opponents out and doing that to Tsonga should see him get to the net without too much fear. The slice will also be important for Muller to try and attack on the return of serve where possible and I think Muller can make use of the games he is being given.
Much is going to depend on which of these players can serve best, but tie-breakers are in play and I think Muller can keep this one close enough to make the games handed to him count in the overall scheme.
Jordan Thompson - 2.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: There isn't much between these players in the World Rankings, but Jordan Thompson has to take heart from the way he played in Australia over the first month of the season. Thompson looks like a player who could make a significant move up the World Rankings in the next few weeks, but he can't underestimate Nikoloz Basilashvili who reached the Semi Final in Sofia last week.
That was a big improvement on the performances earlier in the season for Basilashvili, but he has already been beaten once by Thompson this season and I expect the Australian can frank that win.
Thompson will have to serve a little better than he did in the win over Basilashvili because I have little doubt we will see more from the latter who struggled with that aspect of his game. However I do think the two Davis Cup wins representing Australia will really have given Thompson a boost of confidence to take into the draw in Memphis and that can help him overcome this challenge.
Wins over Dominic Thiem and Martin Klizan will certainly make Basilashvili feel better about himself too with both of those coming in Sofia last week. However he has lost some disappointing matches to open 2017 and the Georgian does not have the best record on the indoor hard courts.
I will look for him to have a setback from the tournament in Sofia and will back Thompson to come through while covering this number.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: Injury and a loss of form has seen Leonardo Mayer slip down the World Rankings and he comes into his home tournament outside of the top 100. A win in the First Round will help, but Mayer is in for a big challenge to go deeper in the draw when he faces Albert Ramos-Vinolas on Wednesday.
Over the years this has not been a great event for Mayer despite the home support he receives in Buenos Aires. He has yet to get beyond the Second Round and has a losing record in the tournament including a previous loss to Ramos-Vinolas and the lack of match fitness may also play a part in this Second Round match.
It has been far from a dominating start to 2017 for Ramos-Vinolas but he is at his best on the clay courts and did reach the Semi Final in Quito last week. An impressive win over another home favourite Guido Pella in the First Round will have given him confidence and I think Ramos-Vinolas could be the stronger player the longer this one last on the court.
The win over Pella was a long match for Ramos-Vinolas and he is not having a day of rest between that three hour epic on court compared with Mayer who played his First Round match on Monday. I think that is a strong reason why the oddsmakers are setting this as a fairly tight match, but I do believe the Spaniard is in a better place mentally of the players and can back up his success on Tuesday.
Physically he has to have left something out on the court, but Ramos-Vinolas can do enough to move through to another Quarter Final on the clay during this South American swing. I like him to come through in three sets, but do enough to earn the cover of this number.
Federico Delbonis - 1.5 games v Joao Sousa: This has all the makings of a pretty good clay court match between two players who will feel they can go very deep in the draw in Buenos Aires this week. Both Federico Delbonis and Joao Sousa arguably play their best tennis on the clay courts although the latter has had some pretty good runs on other surfaces too.
This is going to be a battle with both returning from a lay off from the Australian Open, although Sousa won his first match in Buenos Aires yesterday having previously lost in the First Round on two appearances here. The win over Horacio Zeballos will have prepared Sousa for another lefty in the Second Round, but Delbonis is a better player than the veteran Zeballos these days.
His record in Buenos Aires is not the best either, but Delbonis has fallen to some of the top clay court names in recent seasons in those defeats here. This will feel like a much more winnable match for him than against the likes of Rafael Nadal and Nicolas Almagro who were favourites to win those matches, but Delbonis can't underestimate Sousa.
Sousa is a player that gets every ounce of his ability out of himself, but he can be broken down behind a vulnerable serve and a strong serving day from Delbonis is the key to success for him. I do think there will be some long, gruelling rallies that will see both players have the momentum at times, but I think the Argentinian can come through in three sets.
Delbonis has covered this number in all of his wins in Buenos Aires in the past and I will look for him to battle past Sousa in this Second Round match.
MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units) Already Advised
Timea Bacsinszky - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units) Already Advised
Shuai Zhang - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units) Already Advised
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Gilles Muller + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Jordan Thompson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 1.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-5, - 10 Units (10 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
I did tweet out that I would be surprised if no one had the foresight to start the day's play earlier than they have in the last couple of days despite the obvious weather warnings. On Wednesday there are a few hours of play available during the day and so the tournament is opening at 11am for play rather than waiting until 3:30pm as they did on Tuesday which was a baffling decision when you consider the rain that was forecasted.
Of course the organisers have to make decisions that don't affect the spectators so perhaps there are reasons why they have begun play as late as they have, but it also means there is a significant backlog of matches that need to be completed. Quite a few players will have to play twice on Wednesday (as long as the weather holds out) and there is a full schedule in Doha as we only have one Second Round match set after two days of play.
It does mean I have three picks that have yet to be completed from the first two days and I am hoping all three will be in the books by Wednesday evening.
Buenos Aires has also been affected by rain in the first couple of days, but they are on schedule although there are more adverse conditions to negotiate in the remainder of the week. Thankfully both Rotterdam and Memphis can continue regardless as they are being played indoors, although I have gone a disappointing 0-4 so far in Rotterdam over the first two days.
All in all it has been a tough week, but there are plenty of days to get this turned around which I hope to begin on Wednesday.
Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: I am not going to say anything disrespectful about the way Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova has played over the first six weeks of the 2017 season with the strong run at the Australian Open likely to give her plenty of confidence.
I am not sure if that has put her in a position where she is perhaps being over-rated in a match up against Dominika Cibulkova who has got the better of her in four of their six previous matches. As well as Pavlyuchenkova played at Melbourne Park and in her win over Jelena Jankovic in the First Round here, the Russia also has had losses to Eugenie Bouchard and Julia Goerges behind her in 2017.
The serve is the big weapon for Pavlyuchenkova but I am not the wet conditions in Doha are going to aid her and that is where Cibulkova will feel she can wear down her opponent. I do think Pavlyuchenkova has the edge when it comes to the power she can produce, but Cibulkova has plenty of pop too and is the better mover which might be a key in an event where the ball is a little slower coming through the court.
I do think it will be a close match and I think the Cibulkova serve continues to be an issue if Pavlyuchenkova is given the time to tee off on it. Their previous matches have been close and competitive affairs too which may make this number of games appealing on the underdog, but I think Cibulkova might just be a little stronger at key moments which gives her the edge.
There is every chance this match does not get onto court on Wednesday with the rain forecasted, but I am looking for Cibulkova to hold the edge and come through with the cover thanks to a couple of late breaks of serve.
David Goffin - 3.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: Reaching the Final of a tournament a few days ago can be an issue for players with fatigue a potential factor, but David Goffin has been given a couple of days to rest before the First Round match in Rotterdam. That should be sufficient time to get ready to face Andrey Kuznetsov, although Goffin has to be right on his game immediately.
Going up against this opponent can be difficult because Kuznetsov is willing to take every chance on the court and looks to hit the ball as hard as possible as soon as he can get an opportunity to do that. There can be times when he is virtually unplayable, even against the top players, but keeping the consistency going off the ground can be difficult for Kuznetsov.
If Goffin can weather some of the storm that Kuznetsov brings to the court, I do think he will find chances to break the serve. That is because the all or nothing kind of game Kuznetsov plays is behind both return and serve and once he makes a few misses he tends to give away a game or two that he shouldn't be.
My one issue has to be how vulnerable the Goffin serve can be at times because he isn't getting a lot of cheap points off the first serve. That means he is under pressure to keep his own consistency going, but Goffin produced some solid wins in Sofia last week and should have a little too much all around for Kuznetsov.
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Victor Troicki: There are a couple of players who reached the business end at the Sofia and Montpellier tournaments last week who have their First Round matches in Rotterdam on Wednesday. Another one is Richard Gasquet who came up short against Alexander Zverev in the Final in Montpellier and will be looking to bounce back immediately.
This is far from a straight forward First Round match for Gasquet as he goes up against Victor Troicki who reached the Quarter Final in Sofia last week before going down to Grigor Dimitrov. It has been a decent but unspectacular start to 2017 for Troicki who still has a big serve and heavy groundstrokes that can make him very dangerous when he is fully focused.
That focus can be inconsistent though and Troicki can sometimes have a few issues with Double Faults which hurt any player. He did reach the Quarter Final in Rotterdam last season though and this is not a tournament in which Gasquet has been able to produce his best tennis in previous visits.
Gasquet and Troicki will both need to serve better than they did last week, but I do think the better groundstrokes will come more consistently from the Frenchman's racquet. He has been one of the better indoor players over the last couple of years and I am looking for Gasquet to just edge out Troicki with a 6-4, 6-4 win to move into the Second Round.
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Mischa Zverev: Grigor Dimitrov did his best to almost blow the Sofia Final against David Goffin in the second set when getting very tight, but ultimately he has secured his second title of the 2017 season. Add in a run to the Semi Final at the Australian Open and the improvements in form over the last six months is sending the Bulgarian back towards the top ten of the World Rankings.
This is a big tournament for Dimitrov with the Ranking points on offer this week but following up a title win is one of the tougher tasks on the Tour. Tiredness can be a factor as well as the mental and emotional battle of recovering and getting ready for another big week on the Tour, but Dimitrov is a player with plenty of confidence behind him.
There should be plenty of eyes on this match after Mischa Zverev earned favourable headlines at the Australian Open where he beat the current World Number 1 Andy Murray, but he is yet to follow that up. Since that win over Murray, Zverev has lost to Roger Federer, Ruben Bemelmans and Kenny De Schepper and all in straight sets as opponents perhaps knuckle down a little harder against him.
Zverev does have a decent serve and his attacking intentions do make him a threat as he will look to get to the net and force opponents to pass him consistently. However that might not work to the best effect on this surface in Rotterdam and Dimitrov is certainly playing well enough to think he can dictate rallies and make Zverev play some very awkward volleys.
The key for Dimitrov will be serving well and making sure his opponent cannot just rush the net by attacking the second serve. If Dimitrov can do that, I think the Bulgarian will earn a break more in each set and come through 6-4, 6-4 in this one.
Gilles Muller + 2.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: It was a little disappointing seeing Jo-Wilfried Tsonga just have a few problems with the conditions in Rotterdam as well as his young opponent Stefanos Tsitsapis. Some of the credit has to be given to the youngster, but Tsonga did not serve as effectively as he would have liked and that led to three breaks against him.
He will need to be better in the Second Round when Tsonga takes on big serving Gilles Muller who made much lighter work of a Wild Card opponent on Tuesday. Muller has also challenged Tsonga in their previous matches and actually has a winning record against the Frenchman which should give him confidence.
While the conditions might not be that quick here in Rotterdam, a lot of what Muller does is based on the accuracy of the first serve and Tsonga has limitations on the return. He can't just chip the ball back into play because Muller is very comfortable coming forward and looking to put away volleys.
The slower surface does make it harder to come forward, but Muller relies on accuracy which stretches opponents out and doing that to Tsonga should see him get to the net without too much fear. The slice will also be important for Muller to try and attack on the return of serve where possible and I think Muller can make use of the games he is being given.
Much is going to depend on which of these players can serve best, but tie-breakers are in play and I think Muller can keep this one close enough to make the games handed to him count in the overall scheme.
Jordan Thompson - 2.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: There isn't much between these players in the World Rankings, but Jordan Thompson has to take heart from the way he played in Australia over the first month of the season. Thompson looks like a player who could make a significant move up the World Rankings in the next few weeks, but he can't underestimate Nikoloz Basilashvili who reached the Semi Final in Sofia last week.
That was a big improvement on the performances earlier in the season for Basilashvili, but he has already been beaten once by Thompson this season and I expect the Australian can frank that win.
Thompson will have to serve a little better than he did in the win over Basilashvili because I have little doubt we will see more from the latter who struggled with that aspect of his game. However I do think the two Davis Cup wins representing Australia will really have given Thompson a boost of confidence to take into the draw in Memphis and that can help him overcome this challenge.
Wins over Dominic Thiem and Martin Klizan will certainly make Basilashvili feel better about himself too with both of those coming in Sofia last week. However he has lost some disappointing matches to open 2017 and the Georgian does not have the best record on the indoor hard courts.
I will look for him to have a setback from the tournament in Sofia and will back Thompson to come through while covering this number.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: Injury and a loss of form has seen Leonardo Mayer slip down the World Rankings and he comes into his home tournament outside of the top 100. A win in the First Round will help, but Mayer is in for a big challenge to go deeper in the draw when he faces Albert Ramos-Vinolas on Wednesday.
Over the years this has not been a great event for Mayer despite the home support he receives in Buenos Aires. He has yet to get beyond the Second Round and has a losing record in the tournament including a previous loss to Ramos-Vinolas and the lack of match fitness may also play a part in this Second Round match.
It has been far from a dominating start to 2017 for Ramos-Vinolas but he is at his best on the clay courts and did reach the Semi Final in Quito last week. An impressive win over another home favourite Guido Pella in the First Round will have given him confidence and I think Ramos-Vinolas could be the stronger player the longer this one last on the court.
The win over Pella was a long match for Ramos-Vinolas and he is not having a day of rest between that three hour epic on court compared with Mayer who played his First Round match on Monday. I think that is a strong reason why the oddsmakers are setting this as a fairly tight match, but I do believe the Spaniard is in a better place mentally of the players and can back up his success on Tuesday.
Physically he has to have left something out on the court, but Ramos-Vinolas can do enough to move through to another Quarter Final on the clay during this South American swing. I like him to come through in three sets, but do enough to earn the cover of this number.
Federico Delbonis - 1.5 games v Joao Sousa: This has all the makings of a pretty good clay court match between two players who will feel they can go very deep in the draw in Buenos Aires this week. Both Federico Delbonis and Joao Sousa arguably play their best tennis on the clay courts although the latter has had some pretty good runs on other surfaces too.
This is going to be a battle with both returning from a lay off from the Australian Open, although Sousa won his first match in Buenos Aires yesterday having previously lost in the First Round on two appearances here. The win over Horacio Zeballos will have prepared Sousa for another lefty in the Second Round, but Delbonis is a better player than the veteran Zeballos these days.
His record in Buenos Aires is not the best either, but Delbonis has fallen to some of the top clay court names in recent seasons in those defeats here. This will feel like a much more winnable match for him than against the likes of Rafael Nadal and Nicolas Almagro who were favourites to win those matches, but Delbonis can't underestimate Sousa.
Sousa is a player that gets every ounce of his ability out of himself, but he can be broken down behind a vulnerable serve and a strong serving day from Delbonis is the key to success for him. I do think there will be some long, gruelling rallies that will see both players have the momentum at times, but I think the Argentinian can come through in three sets.
Delbonis has covered this number in all of his wins in Buenos Aires in the past and I will look for him to battle past Sousa in this Second Round match.
MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units) Already Advised
Timea Bacsinszky - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units) Already Advised
Shuai Zhang - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units) Already Advised
David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Gilles Muller + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Jordan Thompson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 1.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-5, - 10 Units (10 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
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