I will post up any plays I make from the English FA Cup games on the slate for this weekend in this thread.
The games are spread over three days so the picks will come up at different times. Also remember that all of my official picks are only available in this thread.
Watford v Tottenham Hotspur Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13053-Watford-v-Tottenham-Hotspur.htm)
Liverpool v Manchester United Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13062-Liverpool-v-Manchester-United.htm)
QPR v Chelsea Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13063-QPR-v-Chelsea.htm)
MY PICKS: Jermain Defoe to score anytime @ 2.25 BetFred (2 Units)
Liverpool-Manchester United Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
QPR-Chelsea Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
January Update: 12-14, + 0.27 Units
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Showing posts with label 4th Round. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 4th Round. Show all posts
Friday, 27 January 2012
Sunday, 22 January 2012
Australian Open Day 8 Picks
The final Quarter Final matches will be decided today and, unfortunately, due to time constraints, I can only put up my picks today without the reasons that I usually accompany with them.
It was a good day for the picks yesterday as Roger Federer won with ease and Tomas Berdych was a 4 set winner. It could have been even better if Kim Clijsters had won her match by serving it out at 5-2, but I am just glad that she is still in the tournament.
MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Over 3.5 sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 11-10, + 4.10 Units
It was a good day for the picks yesterday as Roger Federer won with ease and Tomas Berdych was a 4 set winner. It could have been even better if Kim Clijsters had won her match by serving it out at 5-2, but I am just glad that she is still in the tournament.
MY PICKS: David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Over 3.5 sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 11-10, + 4.10 Units
Saturday, 21 January 2012
Australian Open Day 7 Picks
It was a tough day yesterday for picks as far as I was concerned before the day's play, and for a while I thought it was going to be a 0-2 day as Vera Zvonareva was getting massacred by Ekaterina Makarova, while David Ferrer made a horrendous start to go down 0-4 in the opening set against Juan Ignacio Chela.
It was telling that Ferrer went on to win 19 of 23 games to come through 7-5, 6-2, 6-1 and split the Picks.
On the outright front, we have reached Round 4 with all 6 players still in the competition. Novak Djokovic has barely been tested so far, while Serena Williams is looking solid but is yet to face a true challenge like Makarova should give her in the next Round.
Hopefully, all 4 players in action on Day 7 will force their way into the Quarter Finals.
DAY 7 PICKS
Kim Clijsters - 2.5 games vs Na Li: I have picked Kim Clijsters as one of my outright picks and I think she will be good enough to beat Na Li in this Round to go through to the Quarter Finals in a repeat of the Final from 12 months ago.
Clijsters has looked healthy and has played well in the first 3 Rounds here, including an impressive win over Daniela Hantuchova in the last Round.
Na Li has made a strong start to the new season after really struggling following her win at the French Open in May and I think she is finally showing the form she is capable of. However, it could be a tough ask to match with Clijsters who loves playing here in Australia where she has been accepted as one of their own and is a huge fan favourite.
Clijsters has picked up 5 wins from the 7 meetings against Li, including a 3 set win in the Final here last year. The spread is low enough that she should have a chance to cover even if this one goes the distance, something that I feel is very possible with the way Li has been playing.
However, I am looking at Clijsters to come through 6-3, 4-6, 6-4.
Roger Federer - 7.5 game vs Bernard Tomic: Bernard Tomic has really caught the imagination of the Australian public with his run to the 4th Round, but I still think he has a little way to go before he is beating the likes of Roger Federer in a Grand Slam.
Federer has looked very much in control as he has progressed through the draw, and he would have learnt a lot from playing Tomic on the grass in a Davis Cup tie last season. Tomic's style of play can bamboozle opponents who have not seen it before, but I think it will play into the hands of the former World Number 1 who should be allowed the time to dominate using his forehand.
I also think Federer holds a clear edge when it comes to serving and should be a lot fresher than Tomic who has been forced to a 5th set in 2 of the first 3 Rounds already this year.
I just feel Tomic was a little fortunate to come through the last Round against Alexandr Dolgopolov, and he showed some vulnerabilities that Federer should be able to exploit.
Tomic shouldn't be overawed as he played Rafael Nadal in the 3rd Round here last season and was beaten in straight sets, 6-2, 7-5, 6-3.
Personally, I see this ending 6-3, 6-4, 6-3 to the Swiss player.
Juan Martin Del Potro win 3-1 in sets vs Philipp Kohlschreiber: This should be a close contest between players that have had tough contests against one another in the past and I think the German can at least grab a set off of Del Potro, while probably not being consistent enough to come through the Round.
Del Potro has only dropped 1 set so far in the first 3 Rounds in the tournament, but this is the toughest test he will have faced all week as he looks to get back to the form that carried him to the US Open title in 2009.
Kohlschreiber is a tough test as he has a lot of the shot making ability that can take the racquet out of an opponent's hands when he gets hot. However, I think his serve can be inconsistent and that is what makes it tough for him to beat the very best players in the World.
Del Potro has won all 4 previous meetings with Kohlschreiber, but they have all been tough matches with 2 of those going the distance.
They met last season with Del Potro winning 7-6, 7-6 in Indian Wells and 6-7, 6-4, 7-5 in Miami and I think we will see the Argentine coming through in 4 close contests tonight.
Tomas Berdych to win 3-1 in sets vs Nicolas Almagro: This is another contest between two players that seem to match up well when looking at results against one another, and I think Almagro can make a contest of it on the slower hard courts we have seen this year.
Berdych has won 4 of the 6 meetings against one another, but they did split their 2 matches last year and the Czech player has been solid, yet unspectacular so far in the tournament.
Almagro has done well in recovering from a 1-2 deficit in sets against Grigor Dimitrov to win that in 5 and then beat Stanislas Wawrinka in straight sets and I think he will feel he can have an impact in this match behind his heavy groundstrokes and decent serve.
However, I think Berdych will eventually be able to wear down Almagro with his own power.
I imagine this will be keenly contested for 3 sets before Berdych pulls away in the 4th to record the 3-1 win in sets.
MY PICKS: Kim Clijsters - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Tomas Berdych win 3-1 in sets @ 3.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Australian Open Update: 9-8, + 2.30 Units
It was telling that Ferrer went on to win 19 of 23 games to come through 7-5, 6-2, 6-1 and split the Picks.
On the outright front, we have reached Round 4 with all 6 players still in the competition. Novak Djokovic has barely been tested so far, while Serena Williams is looking solid but is yet to face a true challenge like Makarova should give her in the next Round.
Hopefully, all 4 players in action on Day 7 will force their way into the Quarter Finals.
DAY 7 PICKS
Kim Clijsters - 2.5 games vs Na Li: I have picked Kim Clijsters as one of my outright picks and I think she will be good enough to beat Na Li in this Round to go through to the Quarter Finals in a repeat of the Final from 12 months ago.
Clijsters has looked healthy and has played well in the first 3 Rounds here, including an impressive win over Daniela Hantuchova in the last Round.
Na Li has made a strong start to the new season after really struggling following her win at the French Open in May and I think she is finally showing the form she is capable of. However, it could be a tough ask to match with Clijsters who loves playing here in Australia where she has been accepted as one of their own and is a huge fan favourite.
Clijsters has picked up 5 wins from the 7 meetings against Li, including a 3 set win in the Final here last year. The spread is low enough that she should have a chance to cover even if this one goes the distance, something that I feel is very possible with the way Li has been playing.
However, I am looking at Clijsters to come through 6-3, 4-6, 6-4.
Roger Federer - 7.5 game vs Bernard Tomic: Bernard Tomic has really caught the imagination of the Australian public with his run to the 4th Round, but I still think he has a little way to go before he is beating the likes of Roger Federer in a Grand Slam.
Federer has looked very much in control as he has progressed through the draw, and he would have learnt a lot from playing Tomic on the grass in a Davis Cup tie last season. Tomic's style of play can bamboozle opponents who have not seen it before, but I think it will play into the hands of the former World Number 1 who should be allowed the time to dominate using his forehand.
I also think Federer holds a clear edge when it comes to serving and should be a lot fresher than Tomic who has been forced to a 5th set in 2 of the first 3 Rounds already this year.
I just feel Tomic was a little fortunate to come through the last Round against Alexandr Dolgopolov, and he showed some vulnerabilities that Federer should be able to exploit.
Tomic shouldn't be overawed as he played Rafael Nadal in the 3rd Round here last season and was beaten in straight sets, 6-2, 7-5, 6-3.
Personally, I see this ending 6-3, 6-4, 6-3 to the Swiss player.
Juan Martin Del Potro win 3-1 in sets vs Philipp Kohlschreiber: This should be a close contest between players that have had tough contests against one another in the past and I think the German can at least grab a set off of Del Potro, while probably not being consistent enough to come through the Round.
Del Potro has only dropped 1 set so far in the first 3 Rounds in the tournament, but this is the toughest test he will have faced all week as he looks to get back to the form that carried him to the US Open title in 2009.
Kohlschreiber is a tough test as he has a lot of the shot making ability that can take the racquet out of an opponent's hands when he gets hot. However, I think his serve can be inconsistent and that is what makes it tough for him to beat the very best players in the World.
Del Potro has won all 4 previous meetings with Kohlschreiber, but they have all been tough matches with 2 of those going the distance.
They met last season with Del Potro winning 7-6, 7-6 in Indian Wells and 6-7, 6-4, 7-5 in Miami and I think we will see the Argentine coming through in 4 close contests tonight.
Tomas Berdych to win 3-1 in sets vs Nicolas Almagro: This is another contest between two players that seem to match up well when looking at results against one another, and I think Almagro can make a contest of it on the slower hard courts we have seen this year.
Berdych has won 4 of the 6 meetings against one another, but they did split their 2 matches last year and the Czech player has been solid, yet unspectacular so far in the tournament.
Almagro has done well in recovering from a 1-2 deficit in sets against Grigor Dimitrov to win that in 5 and then beat Stanislas Wawrinka in straight sets and I think he will feel he can have an impact in this match behind his heavy groundstrokes and decent serve.
However, I think Berdych will eventually be able to wear down Almagro with his own power.
I imagine this will be keenly contested for 3 sets before Berdych pulls away in the 4th to record the 3-1 win in sets.
MY PICKS: Kim Clijsters - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Tomas Berdych win 3-1 in sets @ 3.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Australian Open Update: 9-8, + 2.30 Units
Tuesday, 6 September 2011
US Open Day 9 Picks
The rain did finally begin falling yesterday, only half an hour after Roger Federer managed to book his place in the Quarter Final, and today's play looks to be affected completely.
According to reports, there will be steady rain the entire day and I think the tournament is in a bit of bother now as the forecast for the next few days does not exactly make me confident.
We have to expect a few stop-start matches with showers expected from tomorrow afternoon all the way through till Sunday.
The conditions could be a little reminiscent of the tournament last year as the wind was picking up too and it might be a physical examination of players, particularly the Men in the bottom half of the draw who are still in the 4th Round.
These are my Day 9 Picks, but don't be surprised if none of them are finished today:
Andy Murray - 8.5 games vs Donald Young: The flashy Donald Young has finally made a real impact at this level, after many years of expectations, but I think he is in for a tough time against Andy Murray, even though he beat the Brit at Indian Wells earlier this year.
Murray played brilliantly against Feliciano Lopez in the last Round and I expect he will end up frustrating Young on his way through to a straight sets win.
Young has the shot making ability to push Murray close for a set, but it is the World Number 4 that has the edge in almost all departments and I expect him to show that.
Murray may be pushed to a 6-4 first set win, but I expect him to get a couple of breaks in the last two sets and come through 6-2, 6-3 to cover the spread.
John Isner vs Gilles Simon: John Isner has enjoyed a wonderful Summer that will see him finally going back up the Rankings. There is no doubt he enjoys the American hard courts the best and I think the additional rest he is likely to get today will serve him well after playing a lot of tennis over the last 6 weeks.
Isner won in Winston Salem the week before the Open began, and he is likely to get plenty more free points on his own serve.
Simon was brilliant in dispatching Juan Martin Del Potro in the last Round, and he will be used to the fact that many serves he will be facing are unreturned, but he will feel confident he can at least trouble Isner.
However, the Frenchman is always liable to throwing in a bad service game in sets and that could cost him a Quarter Final place here as Isner is a wonderful front runner.
Simon is also only 11-12 in tie breaks this season, even including the 2 he won against Del Potro, and Isner may be able to punish him in those considering he is 32-19 in tie breakers this year.
I think the match could go 5 sets, but I think Isner's serve, coupled with the additional rest for his body, will be the last American standing at this years Open.
David Ferrer win 3-1 in sets vs Andy Roddick: This is scheduled to be the first night game and so the atmosphere will be electric IF the weather decides to make a drastic move away from Flushing Meadows.
David Ferrer has far too much consistency for Andy Roddick these days, and it is indicative from the head to head which is led by the Spaniard 5-3. In fact, he has won 4 of the last 5 matches between the players and Ferrer will not feel more pressure from the crowd than when he knocked off Roddick in straight sets in Austin, Texas in July.
Roddick has the edge in terms of serve, but Ferrer is the better returner, is definitely better off the ground on both wings and is faster. The Spaniard is super-consistent and I think he will keep the pressure on Roddick throughout the match.
I think Roddick is capable of pushing the match to 4 sets if he is serving well, especially considering Ferrer can sometimes throw in a poor service game, but once the dust settles, I think Ferrer will have come through, 6-3, 3-6, 7-5, 6-3.
Samantha Stosur vs Vera Zvonareva: I feel like I am always tipping Sam Stosur to win her matches, mainly because the layers continuously underestimate the gritty Australian, and the fact she keeps winning the picks for me.
Vera Zvonareva was Runner Up here last season, and she is favoured by the layers, but the fact is she is 7-2 down in the head to head with Stosur, losing the last SEVEN meetings.
Stosur has come back from a set down in her 2 wins over Zvonareva this season, and it just seems the added spin she plays with bamboozles the Russian.
I think Stosur is set as a bigger underdog due to the time she has spent on court, but she has shown some really good mental strength to overcome losing the 2nd set in her last 2 matches, and that is a department she holds a real edge over Zvonareva.
It could go 3 again between these two players, but the added rest Stosur is likely to get thanks to the weather could see the Aussie fighting through.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 8.5 games @ 2.00 Stan James (2 Units)
John Isner @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer to win 3-1 in sets @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Sam Stosur @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
US OPEN UPDATE: 22-14, + 20.83 Units
According to reports, there will be steady rain the entire day and I think the tournament is in a bit of bother now as the forecast for the next few days does not exactly make me confident.
We have to expect a few stop-start matches with showers expected from tomorrow afternoon all the way through till Sunday.
The conditions could be a little reminiscent of the tournament last year as the wind was picking up too and it might be a physical examination of players, particularly the Men in the bottom half of the draw who are still in the 4th Round.
These are my Day 9 Picks, but don't be surprised if none of them are finished today:
Andy Murray - 8.5 games vs Donald Young: The flashy Donald Young has finally made a real impact at this level, after many years of expectations, but I think he is in for a tough time against Andy Murray, even though he beat the Brit at Indian Wells earlier this year.
Murray played brilliantly against Feliciano Lopez in the last Round and I expect he will end up frustrating Young on his way through to a straight sets win.
Young has the shot making ability to push Murray close for a set, but it is the World Number 4 that has the edge in almost all departments and I expect him to show that.
Murray may be pushed to a 6-4 first set win, but I expect him to get a couple of breaks in the last two sets and come through 6-2, 6-3 to cover the spread.
John Isner vs Gilles Simon: John Isner has enjoyed a wonderful Summer that will see him finally going back up the Rankings. There is no doubt he enjoys the American hard courts the best and I think the additional rest he is likely to get today will serve him well after playing a lot of tennis over the last 6 weeks.
Isner won in Winston Salem the week before the Open began, and he is likely to get plenty more free points on his own serve.
Simon was brilliant in dispatching Juan Martin Del Potro in the last Round, and he will be used to the fact that many serves he will be facing are unreturned, but he will feel confident he can at least trouble Isner.
However, the Frenchman is always liable to throwing in a bad service game in sets and that could cost him a Quarter Final place here as Isner is a wonderful front runner.
Simon is also only 11-12 in tie breaks this season, even including the 2 he won against Del Potro, and Isner may be able to punish him in those considering he is 32-19 in tie breakers this year.
I think the match could go 5 sets, but I think Isner's serve, coupled with the additional rest for his body, will be the last American standing at this years Open.
David Ferrer win 3-1 in sets vs Andy Roddick: This is scheduled to be the first night game and so the atmosphere will be electric IF the weather decides to make a drastic move away from Flushing Meadows.
David Ferrer has far too much consistency for Andy Roddick these days, and it is indicative from the head to head which is led by the Spaniard 5-3. In fact, he has won 4 of the last 5 matches between the players and Ferrer will not feel more pressure from the crowd than when he knocked off Roddick in straight sets in Austin, Texas in July.
Roddick has the edge in terms of serve, but Ferrer is the better returner, is definitely better off the ground on both wings and is faster. The Spaniard is super-consistent and I think he will keep the pressure on Roddick throughout the match.
I think Roddick is capable of pushing the match to 4 sets if he is serving well, especially considering Ferrer can sometimes throw in a poor service game, but once the dust settles, I think Ferrer will have come through, 6-3, 3-6, 7-5, 6-3.
Samantha Stosur vs Vera Zvonareva: I feel like I am always tipping Sam Stosur to win her matches, mainly because the layers continuously underestimate the gritty Australian, and the fact she keeps winning the picks for me.
Vera Zvonareva was Runner Up here last season, and she is favoured by the layers, but the fact is she is 7-2 down in the head to head with Stosur, losing the last SEVEN meetings.
Stosur has come back from a set down in her 2 wins over Zvonareva this season, and it just seems the added spin she plays with bamboozles the Russian.
I think Stosur is set as a bigger underdog due to the time she has spent on court, but she has shown some really good mental strength to overcome losing the 2nd set in her last 2 matches, and that is a department she holds a real edge over Zvonareva.
It could go 3 again between these two players, but the added rest Stosur is likely to get thanks to the weather could see the Aussie fighting through.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 8.5 games @ 2.00 Stan James (2 Units)
John Isner @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer to win 3-1 in sets @ 4.33 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Sam Stosur @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
US OPEN UPDATE: 22-14, + 20.83 Units
Monday, 5 September 2011
US Open Day 8 Picks
The picks were very successful yesterday and have pushed the profits up above 20 units from the daily picks alone during this tournament.
All of the outright picks are also in tact, barring the small pick on Agnieszka Radwansksa, so all in all the US Open has been a good tournament for me so far.
However, this is now the stage where the tournament gets tougher to predict as we are almost at the Quarter Final stage in the Women's event and the 4th Round of the Men's event beginning today.
I am going to do my best to ensure I do not give back the hard earned profits from the last 7 days.
Day 8 Picks:
Francesca Schiavone vs Anastasia Pavyluchenkova: I am picking the underdog, Francesca Schiavone, to open the days proceedings with a win over the young talented Russian.
I feel the odds have been set the way they have due to the time on court Schiavone has spent in the last Round, coupled with Pavyluchenkova's impressive straight sets win over the in-form Jelena Jankovic.
However, Schiavone has had a days rest since her win over Chanelle Scheepers, and I think Pavyluchenkova was in a good place mentally to take on Jankovic as she had won their 2 previous meetings.
This match will pose a different sort of pressure on the Russian as she is down 1-3 in the head to head with Schiavone and was beaten at the French Open in May and also here in Flushing Meadows in 2010 by this opponent.
I expect the dogged Italian to force Pavyluchenkova to hit one more ball on one too many occasions and grind her way to a win, possibly in 3 sets.
Janko Tipsarevic win 3-1 in sets vs Juan Carlos Ferrero: The Serb is definitely getting better and more accustomed to reaching the latter stages of tournaments and I think he will be good enough to see off the veteran Spaniard Juan Carlos Ferrero and pick up his first career win over him.
However, Tipsarevic is plenty short in the market and he still has the tendency to check out of sets so the option of picking him to win while losing a set appeals to me.
Ferrero has fought through two 5 set matches to reach this stage of the tournament, but he was given an extended rest after his opponent in the last Round retired.
I just don't think he has consistency these days to keep up with Tipsarevic as the match enters the latter stages and I think the Serb will have enough to come through with a 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 win.
Serena Williams-Ana Ivanovic Under 18.5 games: The handicap has moved another game in favour of Serena Williams and I think it looks a little long now, but the American should be far too good for Ana Ivanovic and I expect a routine straight sets win.
Williams is hitting the ball so well at the moment and it is like she has never been away. She outplayed Victoria Azarenka in the last Round for most of the match, with the World Number 4 barely surviving into a tie break in the 2nd set through heart and guts alone.
Ivanovic does not strike me as someone who has the belief in her game to come back if Williams gets off to a similar start to Saturday in this match, especially considering the Serb's recent form and also the fact she has lost her 2 previous meetings against Serena.
They met here at the US Open in 2006, when Ivanovic was swiftly moving up the Rankings, and I see a similar 6-4, 6-2 result this time for the favourite to win the title.
Mardy Fish vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: This should be a brilliant tennis match regardless of the winner, but I am going to back the American to come through and I know I will be joined by Roger Federer in that hope as he is most likely going to be the next opponent for the winner.
Mardy Fish has been in excellent form this season as he has begun to feel more and more comfortable in his position as America's Number 1 Male player. The pressure for a long time would have been on Andy Roddick in that position coming into Flushing Meadows, but Fish has escaped such expectation as he really is a late bloomer at this level.
I have read some opposition to Fish tonight because of the amount of tennis he has played in recent weeks, but he is in the best shape of his career and did take a week off before the tournament started.
Both players have a similar game, liking to be on the offensive and putting down a foundation with a strong first serve. Both are also very comfortable up the court at the net and the match could come down to who gets the first strike off first.
I just feel Fish is a little more consistent off the ground, even if Tsonga possesses the flashier shots, and that could be enough to take out the Frenchman. It could go a long time though so I would clear a bit of time on your schedule if you want to watch the match.
Roger Federer - 9.5 games vs Juan Monaco: The first thing to say is Juan Monaco has given Roger Federer a tough time in their 2 previous meetings, and only lost a tight 2 setter in Miami when they played earlier this season.
However, I fancy the former World Number 1 to win this one with a bit to spare as the conditions should suit him much more and Monaco does not really have the game to threaten Federer consistently.
Federer will, I imagine, also be aware of the adverse weather conditions due to hit New York in the next couple of days and I expect him to play fully focused to win this match as soon as possible.
His serve has been working effectively and he has been rallying well, and I would expect a 6-1, 6-4, 6-3 win for Federer.
MY PICKS: Francesca Schiavone @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Janko Tipsarevic win 3-1 @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Serena Williams-Ana Ivanovic Under 18.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Mardy Fish @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 9.5 games @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
US OPEN UPDATE: 20-11, + 21.43 Units
All of the outright picks are also in tact, barring the small pick on Agnieszka Radwansksa, so all in all the US Open has been a good tournament for me so far.
However, this is now the stage where the tournament gets tougher to predict as we are almost at the Quarter Final stage in the Women's event and the 4th Round of the Men's event beginning today.
I am going to do my best to ensure I do not give back the hard earned profits from the last 7 days.
Day 8 Picks:
Francesca Schiavone vs Anastasia Pavyluchenkova: I am picking the underdog, Francesca Schiavone, to open the days proceedings with a win over the young talented Russian.
I feel the odds have been set the way they have due to the time on court Schiavone has spent in the last Round, coupled with Pavyluchenkova's impressive straight sets win over the in-form Jelena Jankovic.
However, Schiavone has had a days rest since her win over Chanelle Scheepers, and I think Pavyluchenkova was in a good place mentally to take on Jankovic as she had won their 2 previous meetings.
This match will pose a different sort of pressure on the Russian as she is down 1-3 in the head to head with Schiavone and was beaten at the French Open in May and also here in Flushing Meadows in 2010 by this opponent.
I expect the dogged Italian to force Pavyluchenkova to hit one more ball on one too many occasions and grind her way to a win, possibly in 3 sets.
Janko Tipsarevic win 3-1 in sets vs Juan Carlos Ferrero: The Serb is definitely getting better and more accustomed to reaching the latter stages of tournaments and I think he will be good enough to see off the veteran Spaniard Juan Carlos Ferrero and pick up his first career win over him.
However, Tipsarevic is plenty short in the market and he still has the tendency to check out of sets so the option of picking him to win while losing a set appeals to me.
Ferrero has fought through two 5 set matches to reach this stage of the tournament, but he was given an extended rest after his opponent in the last Round retired.
I just don't think he has consistency these days to keep up with Tipsarevic as the match enters the latter stages and I think the Serb will have enough to come through with a 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 win.
Serena Williams-Ana Ivanovic Under 18.5 games: The handicap has moved another game in favour of Serena Williams and I think it looks a little long now, but the American should be far too good for Ana Ivanovic and I expect a routine straight sets win.
Williams is hitting the ball so well at the moment and it is like she has never been away. She outplayed Victoria Azarenka in the last Round for most of the match, with the World Number 4 barely surviving into a tie break in the 2nd set through heart and guts alone.
Ivanovic does not strike me as someone who has the belief in her game to come back if Williams gets off to a similar start to Saturday in this match, especially considering the Serb's recent form and also the fact she has lost her 2 previous meetings against Serena.
They met here at the US Open in 2006, when Ivanovic was swiftly moving up the Rankings, and I see a similar 6-4, 6-2 result this time for the favourite to win the title.
Mardy Fish vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: This should be a brilliant tennis match regardless of the winner, but I am going to back the American to come through and I know I will be joined by Roger Federer in that hope as he is most likely going to be the next opponent for the winner.
Mardy Fish has been in excellent form this season as he has begun to feel more and more comfortable in his position as America's Number 1 Male player. The pressure for a long time would have been on Andy Roddick in that position coming into Flushing Meadows, but Fish has escaped such expectation as he really is a late bloomer at this level.
I have read some opposition to Fish tonight because of the amount of tennis he has played in recent weeks, but he is in the best shape of his career and did take a week off before the tournament started.
Both players have a similar game, liking to be on the offensive and putting down a foundation with a strong first serve. Both are also very comfortable up the court at the net and the match could come down to who gets the first strike off first.
I just feel Fish is a little more consistent off the ground, even if Tsonga possesses the flashier shots, and that could be enough to take out the Frenchman. It could go a long time though so I would clear a bit of time on your schedule if you want to watch the match.
Roger Federer - 9.5 games vs Juan Monaco: The first thing to say is Juan Monaco has given Roger Federer a tough time in their 2 previous meetings, and only lost a tight 2 setter in Miami when they played earlier this season.
However, I fancy the former World Number 1 to win this one with a bit to spare as the conditions should suit him much more and Monaco does not really have the game to threaten Federer consistently.
Federer will, I imagine, also be aware of the adverse weather conditions due to hit New York in the next couple of days and I expect him to play fully focused to win this match as soon as possible.
His serve has been working effectively and he has been rallying well, and I would expect a 6-1, 6-4, 6-3 win for Federer.
MY PICKS: Francesca Schiavone @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Janko Tipsarevic win 3-1 @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Serena Williams-Ana Ivanovic Under 18.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Mardy Fish @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 9.5 games @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
US OPEN UPDATE: 20-11, + 21.43 Units
Monday, 27 June 2011
Wimbledon Day 7 Picks
Last week proved to be a happy hunting ground for the picks. I was hoping to come online with a recap of the week's events, but have been out for most of the day so did not have the time to do so.
I am hoping this week we can build on a good start to the tournament so without further ado, on to Day 7 Picks:
Feliciano Lopez - 4.5 games vs Lukasz Kubot: I did identify Feliciano Lopez as a player that could surprise a few people, but I was still shocked at the ease in which he dismissed Andy Roddick's challenge in the last Round- dont be fooled by the tight nature of the scoreline, it was much easier than that.
Lopez is a former Quarter Finalist at these Championships, and he is rightly the big favourite to come through this match with Lukasz Kubot.
Kubot is ranked at 93 in the World, although that should improve markedly next week, and is coming in after a 3rd Round appearance at the French Open. He qualified here for Wimbledon and has dismissed Ivo Karlovic and Gael Monfils along the way.
I expect the Polish player to cause a few problems, but his serve is not as good as Lopez' and I feel that will be the difference in this match. Kubot also has no previous form on grass, although pushing Philipp Petzschner to 5 sets last year, and I feel he has taken advantage of a kind draw- that should come to an end here.
Lopez already holds a win over Kubot on a clay court and his game should be more suited to take advantage on the grass.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games vs Mardy Fish: This is an intriguing battle between two players that are ranked in the top 10 of the World. Berdych's ranking is due to take a hit unless he can reach the heights of last season when he made the Final here and both players will feel confident in this match.
However, it is Berdych who has the better grass court pedigree of the two, with Mardy Fish surprisingly struggling in previous visits to SW19.
Fish has been forced to dig much deeper to reach the 2nd week here this year, while Berdych has quietly made his move through the draw.
This match could boil down to consistency in the serve, an area where I feel Berdych has the edge, and I also think his groundies are a little more penetrating.
I would not be surprised if Fish took a set, but the spread is low enough that it might not be enough to prevent Berdych from covering.
Roger Federer - 7.5 games vs Mikhail Youzhny: Roger Federer will be playing on Court 1 tomorrow afternoon, but he could play anywhere at this moment and I would struggle to see Mikhail Youzhny slowing him down.
Federer is serving exceptionally well and this is making it easier for him to attack opponents service games as he continues to play at an extremely high level. His groundstrokes have been working very well on both wings and it would take a braver man than me to predict Federer will not be playing on July 3rd on Centre Court.
Youzhny is a good grass court player, but his best days look like they are behind him. He has made good progress through the draw, although I am a little worried that Juan Monaco took him to 5 sets.
The Russian has also lost all 9 previous meetings with Federer, and they have also met on 3 occasions on grass in those losses. Youzhny's serve is not the biggest, and while he may stick around for a while, I can only see another fairly straightforward Federer win.
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games vs Juan Martin Del Potro: The tie of the 4th Round, in my opinion, and it is one I am looking forward to. Del Potro has looked fairly good in his matches here, although this will be his first match on Centre Court since 2009.
Rafael Nadal has not been at his brilliant best, but we have all seen how he works his way into a tournament. He came through a tricky tie with Gilles Muller and is still to drop a set, although you know Uncle Toni will have told him to begin stepping up his game.
The key to this match could be the movement of Del Potro- even though he has been winning matches behind his heavy groundies, I just feel the Argentine has not been totally convinced with the surface.
Nadal will get his man on the run and I think the reigning Champion will expose any shortcomings Del Potro may feel he has on the grass.
The head to head is 5-3 in favour of Nadal, their last match coming at Indian Wells in March. That is their only meeting since Del Potro destroyed Nadal for the loss of 6 games in the US Open Semi Final of 2009.
Nadal also holds a straight sets win on grass at Queens over Del Potro and I feel the same will happen here. However, I am taking the handicap rather than the sets because there is a chance Del Potro will play 1 inspired set although I would be surprised if he won a set in such a fashion to make it tough to beat this spread.
Andy Murray win 3-1 in sets vs Richard Gasquet: The final pick will be Andy Murray giving his supporters a few nervous moments before dispatching Richard Gasquet in the opening match on Centre Court.
Their last 2 meetings have come in Grand Slams, at Roland Garros in 2010 and here in 2008- on both occasions Gasquet had a 2 set lead before Murray roared back to win in 5 sets.
Murray should be too strong overall for the Frenchman again, but it would be no surprise if he threw in a couple of bad service games that results in the loss of a set as it has done against Ivan Ljubicic and Daniel Gimeno-Traver already.
Gasquet has made easy progress through the draw but will need to raise his level around 2 gears from previous opponents. Although he holds a win over Roger Federer recently, defeats to Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic since then may show he is not quite ready to compete with the very best on a consistent basis.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez - 4.5 games @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 7.5 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 2.30 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray win 3-1 sets @ 3.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 15.51 Units (+ 3.10 Units Day 6)
I am hoping this week we can build on a good start to the tournament so without further ado, on to Day 7 Picks:
Feliciano Lopez - 4.5 games vs Lukasz Kubot: I did identify Feliciano Lopez as a player that could surprise a few people, but I was still shocked at the ease in which he dismissed Andy Roddick's challenge in the last Round- dont be fooled by the tight nature of the scoreline, it was much easier than that.
Lopez is a former Quarter Finalist at these Championships, and he is rightly the big favourite to come through this match with Lukasz Kubot.
Kubot is ranked at 93 in the World, although that should improve markedly next week, and is coming in after a 3rd Round appearance at the French Open. He qualified here for Wimbledon and has dismissed Ivo Karlovic and Gael Monfils along the way.
I expect the Polish player to cause a few problems, but his serve is not as good as Lopez' and I feel that will be the difference in this match. Kubot also has no previous form on grass, although pushing Philipp Petzschner to 5 sets last year, and I feel he has taken advantage of a kind draw- that should come to an end here.
Lopez already holds a win over Kubot on a clay court and his game should be more suited to take advantage on the grass.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games vs Mardy Fish: This is an intriguing battle between two players that are ranked in the top 10 of the World. Berdych's ranking is due to take a hit unless he can reach the heights of last season when he made the Final here and both players will feel confident in this match.
However, it is Berdych who has the better grass court pedigree of the two, with Mardy Fish surprisingly struggling in previous visits to SW19.
Fish has been forced to dig much deeper to reach the 2nd week here this year, while Berdych has quietly made his move through the draw.
This match could boil down to consistency in the serve, an area where I feel Berdych has the edge, and I also think his groundies are a little more penetrating.
I would not be surprised if Fish took a set, but the spread is low enough that it might not be enough to prevent Berdych from covering.
Roger Federer - 7.5 games vs Mikhail Youzhny: Roger Federer will be playing on Court 1 tomorrow afternoon, but he could play anywhere at this moment and I would struggle to see Mikhail Youzhny slowing him down.
Federer is serving exceptionally well and this is making it easier for him to attack opponents service games as he continues to play at an extremely high level. His groundstrokes have been working very well on both wings and it would take a braver man than me to predict Federer will not be playing on July 3rd on Centre Court.
Youzhny is a good grass court player, but his best days look like they are behind him. He has made good progress through the draw, although I am a little worried that Juan Monaco took him to 5 sets.
The Russian has also lost all 9 previous meetings with Federer, and they have also met on 3 occasions on grass in those losses. Youzhny's serve is not the biggest, and while he may stick around for a while, I can only see another fairly straightforward Federer win.
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games vs Juan Martin Del Potro: The tie of the 4th Round, in my opinion, and it is one I am looking forward to. Del Potro has looked fairly good in his matches here, although this will be his first match on Centre Court since 2009.
Rafael Nadal has not been at his brilliant best, but we have all seen how he works his way into a tournament. He came through a tricky tie with Gilles Muller and is still to drop a set, although you know Uncle Toni will have told him to begin stepping up his game.
The key to this match could be the movement of Del Potro- even though he has been winning matches behind his heavy groundies, I just feel the Argentine has not been totally convinced with the surface.
Nadal will get his man on the run and I think the reigning Champion will expose any shortcomings Del Potro may feel he has on the grass.
The head to head is 5-3 in favour of Nadal, their last match coming at Indian Wells in March. That is their only meeting since Del Potro destroyed Nadal for the loss of 6 games in the US Open Semi Final of 2009.
Nadal also holds a straight sets win on grass at Queens over Del Potro and I feel the same will happen here. However, I am taking the handicap rather than the sets because there is a chance Del Potro will play 1 inspired set although I would be surprised if he won a set in such a fashion to make it tough to beat this spread.
Andy Murray win 3-1 in sets vs Richard Gasquet: The final pick will be Andy Murray giving his supporters a few nervous moments before dispatching Richard Gasquet in the opening match on Centre Court.
Their last 2 meetings have come in Grand Slams, at Roland Garros in 2010 and here in 2008- on both occasions Gasquet had a 2 set lead before Murray roared back to win in 5 sets.
Murray should be too strong overall for the Frenchman again, but it would be no surprise if he threw in a couple of bad service games that results in the loss of a set as it has done against Ivan Ljubicic and Daniel Gimeno-Traver already.
Gasquet has made easy progress through the draw but will need to raise his level around 2 gears from previous opponents. Although he holds a win over Roger Federer recently, defeats to Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic since then may show he is not quite ready to compete with the very best on a consistent basis.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez - 4.5 games @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 7.5 games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 2.30 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray win 3-1 sets @ 3.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 15.51 Units (+ 3.10 Units Day 6)
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