Winmau World Masters Darts Day 1 Picks 2026 (Thursday 29th January)

The PDC Tour begins with a couple of invitational events taking place in the Middle East, but things really get going in 2026 when the Winmau World Masters is played at the end of January.

The first World Ranking tournament of the season brings together some of the very best players on the Tour and the return to the old format for the first time in 2025 has given the event a boost.

It is another Set play event, but best of three Legs rather than the best of five format that is used at the World Championship.

Opening Rounds are played in best of five Set format, but the first to two Legs to win a set does remove some of the room for error that can be at play in the World Championships.

Luke Humphries is the defending Champion, but the favourite for most events these days is the dominant Luke Littler.

His tournament was ended in a high quality match against Jonny Clayton twelve months ago, but it would take a brave person to back against Littler- however, the shorter format to win a Set does give opponents an opportunity, although you have to imagine there is a huge amount of motivation in the Luke Littler camp to win one of the very few Ranking events that he is yet to pick up.

The draw looks like it is a decent one for Luke Littler to get on a run and make the short odds on him winning the event payout- Josh Rock is a potential danger in the Quarter Final, but it does feel like Littler can build his momentum into Sunday when he will be much harder to beat as there is an increase in the number of Sets needed to progress.

We should see Luke Humphries and Gian van Veen having strong runs in the bottom half of the draw, while players like Gary Anderson, Gerwyn Price and, in particular, Michael van Gerwen will also be looking for big impacts.

Michal van Gerwen had two very solid runs at the two tournaments played in the middle of January with one Title won and the other ending in a Runner Up conclusion and the former World Number 1 looks highly motivated to remind the watching public of his capabilities.

The First Round of the World Masters is played across two evenings before the Second Round takes place over two Sessions on Saturday.

Sunday is a much a stamina test as anything else with the tournament concluded over the course of several hours, which is where the younger players seem to have an edge.

We should be in for a fun four days in Milton Keynes and then we have the beginning of the Premier League next week.

Those will be the focus for the Darts Picks through much of February, although there is also the first European Tour event to be played in Poland.

Jermaine Wattimena v Chris Dobey: Last year Chris Dobey was preparing for the Premier League, which meant being involved in some of the early invitational events played in January.

This time around he has had a bit of time off after the disappointing early exit at the World Championships.

He faces Jermaine Wattimena in the First Round of the Winmau World Masters and this is a really tough looking match on paper and it is something of a surprise that Dobey has been set as the favourite.

2025 was a really big year for Jermaine Wattimena and he has moved into the top 20 of the World Rankings, while feeling there is even more to come. His performance in losing to Gary Anderson at the World Championships was pretty strong and the overall season was one that saw Wattimena playing with a lot more confidence.

He has gotten the better of Chris Dobey in each of the last two matches against one another and the Dutchman looks a decent underdog to get behind to open this tournament.

Michael van Gerwen over 2.5 180s v Damon Heta: A poor end to the season carried over into the World Championships as far as Damon Heta was concerned and he will be hoping the break from the Tour has given him a chance to reset.

The Australian is a very good player on his day, but he will need to be if he is goign to upset Michael van Gerwen in the First Round.

In recent years Damon Heta has beaten the former World Number 1 in big events like the UK Open and Grand Slam, while the sole meeting in 2025 ended in a last Leg win for Michael van Gerwen.

However, the latter looked really confident in the two invitational events played in January and van Gerwen will have been very happy with a Title and then a run to another Final. He has admitted that last year was tough personally, which affected professional performances, but Michael van Gerwen looks more settled going into 2026.

This is a match that could need at least nine or ten Legs to be completed and van Gerwen was finding the treble bed pretty well in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. He should have enough opportunities to hit at least three 180s in this one and the expectation is that Michael van Gerwen will find a way to move through 3-1 in Sets.

Double- Gian van Veen Win and Most 180s & Gerwyn Price Over 2.5 180s: A number of the Qualifiers are going to be ready to compete having come through the Preliminary Rounds and James Hurrell should give Gerwyn Price something to think about.

However, the Ice Man is playing pretty well and he should be given enough time to reach at least three maximums.

Putting that together with Gian van Veen outscoring and ultimately beating Ryan Joyce looks the play.

The World Number 3 is progressing and is expected to move past Luke Humphries in the Rankings in the weeks ahead.

He tends to be a much bigger 180 hitter than Ryan Joyce, while Relentless may not be afforded the time to get down to the Doubles that some offer him with missed opportunities on the outer ring.

Gian van Veen is one of the stronger finishers out there and the expectation is that he has too much for Ryan Joyce, which should play up on the stats.

MY PICKS: Jermaine Wattimena @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Michael van Gerwen Over 2.5 180s @ 1.72 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Gian van Veen to Win and Most 180s & Gerwyn Price Over 2.5 180s @ 2.71 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Australian Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2026 (Thursday 29th January)

The opening Grand Slam of the 2026 season has now reached the last four days and that means the spotlight will shine on the Singles tournaments on different days.

On Thursday and Saturday it will be the leading ladies who take centre stage with the two Semi Finals played on the Night Session before the Saturday showpiece Final.

On Friday and Sunday it will be the turn of the men and it may take a brave person to back against seeing the Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Grand Slam Final for the fourth Major in a row. Players like Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic will be hoping experience can give them an edge, but it is a big ask and the two leading male player on the Tour continue to dominate.

Before all of that we get into the women's Semi Final matches and both offer some intrigue.

Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina know what it takes to get over the line, but Jessica Pegula is a former US Open Finalist and Elina Svitolina will feel that she has already overachieved since returning to the Tour. Of course the latter is being fuelled further by off court events taking place back in her homeland and that is going to be the backdrop to her Semi Final with the World Number 1, while also meaning the latter will be playing with plenty of motivation of her own knowing how some of her peers feel about her presence on the Tour.

The second Semi Final should be another fun match between Pegula and Rybakina and my Picks from both last four matches can be read below.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Elina Svitolina: You cannot ignore the political backdrop to this Australian Open Semi Final when Aryna Sabalenka takes on Elina Svitolina. It has been a tournament filled with questions being asked of the American players about political upheaval taking place back in the United States, while a different Ukrainian player made headlines early at the Australian Open when criticising some of the top Russian and Belarusian athletes on the Tour.

There is not going to be a handshake before or after this match, but both Aryna Sabalenka and Elina Svitolina will be very respectful of what the other brings on the court. Added motivation cannot be ignored on both sides of the net and it is going to be very important for the two competitors to keep a lid on the emotions if they are going to find a way to compete in the Final of the opening Grand Slam of the season.

While impossible to ignore issues off of the court, the focus here has to be on how the two have matched up with each other.

Both have to be credited for maintaining unbeaten runs through the opening month of the season which has led to each winning a title, while the performances within the Australian Open have also been impressive.

Aryna Sabalenka has beaten a couple of young, developing stars of the WTA Tour in the last two Rounds, but Elina Svitolina will be the highest Ranked player she will have faced in Melbourne this year. Previously that match would have been against World Number 16 Victoria Mboko, but inexperience would still have been. factor in that Fourth Round match and now Sabalenka is facing someone returning to the top 10 of the World Rankings and who has plenty of Grand Slam experience.

Not only that, but Elina Svitolina is much more battle-hardened having beaten three players Ranked inside the top 22, while also having back to back top 10 wins. Those last two victories over Mirra Andreeva and Coco Gauff came in matches when Elina Svitolina did not drop a set and she produced some high quality tennis to make sure neither Andreeva nor Gauff could get a foothold into those matches.

There is still a mental obstacle to overcome as Elina Svitolina has not reached a Grand Slam Final before, but the run to the Semi Final here means her record in Majors is as successful post-motherhood as it was before she took her leave of absence from the Tour.

This is the first Grand Slam Semi Final since Elina Svitolina's surprising run at Wimbledon 2023, while the style of play has changed with the 31 year old looking to be more aggressive in her tennis. This has been evident here in Melbourne with Svitolina using the serve very well, especially when it comes to protecting the second serve, and Svitolina has really had a lot of success on the return.

She may have played some high Ranked opponents, but that has not stopped Svitolina from winning 52% of return points played, while she has broken at least four times in every match at Melbourne Park.

Of course it has to be noted that this time Elina Svitolina will be facing one of the best servers on the WTA Tour in Aryna Sabalenka and the World Number 1 has been particularly effective at winning a few more points behind the second serve. She may also feel there is room for improvement on the points won behind the first serve, but Aryna Sabalenka looks to be peaking at the right time.

Much like her opponent, Aryna Sabalenka's control of the serve has allowed her to play with aggression on the return and she has also been very effective at winning those points to keep the pressure on the opponent.

It does feel like this Semi Final will come down to which of the two players is most effective at looking after the second serve.

In recent meetings between the players, it is Aryna Sabalenka who has just been able to play the bigger points more effectively and her power has been telling on the return.

The majority of the previous matches have been on the clay courts, which is a surface on which Elina Svitolina may feel she can cause more problems for the World Number 1.

In two previous hard court matches, Aryna Sabalenka's first serve has made the difference, including in the first of those when the younger player was much lower in the World Rankings. The hard court match in Cincinnati in August 2024 was dominated by Sabalenka and the feeling is that she has the serving prowess to avoid the kind of capitulation suffered by Coco Gauff in the Quarter Final.

The blueprint to attack the Elina Svitolina serve has been shown in the Round earlier by Mirra Andreeva and you just have to believe that Aryna Sabalenka's comfort on the Melbourne hard courts eventually see her pull away for a solid win and a place in the Australian Open Final for a fourth year in a row.

Elena Rybakina Over 3.5 Breaks of Serve and 5+ Aces v Jessica Pegula: Both Jessica Pegula and Elena Rybakina came through Quarter Finals in impressive fashion and that makes for a good looking Semi Final between players who have been amongst the best on the Tour for some time.

Both have played Grand Slam Finals, but it is Elena Rybakina who has gotten over the line when winning the title at Wimbledon.

Elena Rybakina also reached the Final right here in Melbourne six months after winning the title at SW19, but she came up short against Aryna Sabalenka in 2023. Since that defeat, her best Grand Slam runs have been at Wimbledon where she has reached the Quarter Final and Semi Final and, somewhat more surprisingly, at the French Open where Elena Rybakina has played in another Quarter Final.

However, despite the very strong hard court numbers over the last couple of seasons, Elena Rybakina has struggled to make the second week at either of the two Slams played on that surface until this strong opening to the 2026 season.

Jessica Pegula had also reached a ceiling in her Grand Slam performances, but broke through to reach the Final at the US Open in 2024 and was a Semi Finalist in New York City back in September. Before 2024, Pegula had played in and been beaten in five Grand Slam Quarter Final matches, which includes in three straight years at the Australian Open.

There had also been signs that this was a player who was becoming a declining force, but the World Number 6 has really impressed in her run to the Semi Final in Australia over the last few days. She has beaten the defending Champion and Jessica Pegula came through a tight second set to beat Amanda Anisimova, who had reached the last two Grand Slam Finals, while also maintaining a run of having yet to drop a set in the tournament.

Her opponent has also come through in straight sets throughout the tournament and overcame a slow start to motor past Iga Swiatek in the Quarter Final, which will have given Elena Rybakina a real boost in confidence.

The serve is proving to be a monster weapon for Rybakina and she has really gotten in to a nice rhythm behind that shot in the last two Rounds as the competition has increased.

It is going to need to be working as well to keep a lid on Jessica Pegula, but Elena Rybakina has to be confident having beaten the American twice on the hard courts in 2025. Both of those wins saw Elena Rybakina have a real edge on the serve and that is likely going to be a key factor in the outcome of this Semi Final, although Jessica Pegula's mental strength can not be dismissed.

The American has been the stronger return player in the tournament, but that has to be expected.

It is the Elena Rybakina second serve that can become a key in making sure that the Kazakhstan representative is not being pushed back early in rallies and she will certainly feel she has the easy power to come through this match.

You have to expect Elena Rybakina's serve to rack up the Ace count in this match- she has been flowing nicely in the last two Rounds and managed to put up 24 Aces in the two wins over Jessica Pegula last year with at least 9 in both wins.

Elena Rybakina also broke at least four times in both matches and she has the capabilities of hitting those marks again.

As mentioned, Rybakina has been finding some stellar rhythm on the serve and Madison Keys managed 4 Aces in her defeat to Jessica Pegula, while the World Number 5 has broken at least four times in each of the last four wins in the tournament.

You have to respect Jessica Pegula's capabilities of digging in and finding a way to turn points and games, which makes the spread dangerous, but putting the Ace count and Breaks of Serve together gives us an odds against quote for Elena Rybakina, who looks the stronger player overall.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina Over 3.5 Breaks of Serve & 5+ Aces @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 33-22, + 8.48 Units (114 Units Staked, + 7.44% Yield)

NFL Championship Game PlayOff Picks 2023 (January 29th)

The NFL Championship Games take place on Sunday as we finally learn the names of the two teams that will be competing in the Super Bowl in a fortnight from now.

Both games have the look of being fascinating viewing for the neutrals and I do think both could come down to the wire.

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: If you are being honest, it has felt like the Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) and San Francisco 49ers (15-4) have been on a collision course in the NFC. They have looked the two best team and strong wins in the Divisional Round means the two will meet in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday with a place in the Super Bowl on the line.

You have to really like the composition of both rosters and I do think it will be a very close, competitive game.

There are some weaknesses that the other side will be looking to exploit, but it would be a real surprise if the outcome is still not in doubt as we hit the two minute warning in the Fourth Quarter.

The 49ers have to be given credit for the way they have overcome injuries on both sides of the ball and Brock Purdy continues to surpass expectations. Mr Irrelevant will only be the fifth rookie Quarter Back to play in a Championship Game, but Purdy has to overcome the fact that the previous four were all beaten and struggled with Interceptions.

Kyle Shanahan is not expected to lean on his Quarter Back and put him in a dangerous position to turn the ball over. Instead the 49ers will continue to lean on the running game and will scheme up a number of misdirections and runs from different players to try and keep the Philadelphia Eagles off-balance.

Despite the improvements made on the Defensive Line, the Eagles have still had one or two issues stopping the run as they would like and that can only be encouraging news for San Francisco. Christian McCaffrey may be the lead Running Back, but Deebo Samuel is someone that the 49ers will line up in the backfield and he is capable of ripping off a big run or two at any time, which should keep Brock Purdy and company in front of the chains.

This is so important for the 49ers- Purdy can make quick throws to get the ball into the hands of his skill players, but the San Francisco 49ers will not want to be in a position where he has to allow routes to develop down field and then have to deal with the vicious Eagles pass rush.

Throwing against the Eagles Secondary is not going to be easy and the 49ers did have issues moving the ball consistently and scoring points against the Dallas Cowboys in the Divisional Round. As good as the Dallas Defensive unit have been, the Philadelphia Eagles have been even better and I think they will feel they can slow down the rookie Quarter Back as long as they can stay on top of the run game.

Brock Purdy will make the headlines as the rookie and the last selection in the NFL Draft, but he should be the first to tell anyone that listens how important the rest of the roster is. The San Francisco Defense turned the ball over a couple of times in the narrow win over Dallas last week and I do think that was vital to the outcome of the game and the 49ers will be looking to earn some extra possessions against Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game.

A Defensive Line that has been very strong against the run will be key for the 49ers, but there is one big factor that has been mentioned in the build up and that is the playmaking ability of Jalen Hurts at Quarter Back for the Eagles. Mobile Quarter Backs can be very tough to play and it has bene something of a relative weakness for the 49ers, although it is a theory that has not been tested much at all this season.

Jalen Hurts could be the key for the Eagles- that additional running threat may just give the 49ers pause for thought up front and playing in front of the chains is huge for the Eagles against a very tough Defensive unit on the other sidelines.

Slowing down the San Francisco pass rush would be a bonus of staying in manageable down and distance, while it would also just open up some of the passing lanes. A strong end to the season has given the 49ers Secondary some confidence, but the Eagles have a lot of top options in the Receiving unit and I do think Philadelphia can win against the Defensive Backs they are facing.

Both of these teams have positive trends behind them, but the Eagles are 7-3 against the spread in the last ten games between them.

I think it will be close and there won't be much between the two teams, while turnovers are the one factor that you cannot really predict, yet will have a huge outcome in this one.

My feeling is that the home field advantage and the ability of Jalen Hurts to move the chains with his legs will ultimately make the difference for Philadelphia on the day. Both Defensive units are amongst the best in the NFL, while Brock Purdy may become the latest rookie Quarter Back to falter in the Championship Round of the PlayOffs.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Most were expecting the AFC Championship Game to have to be played on a neutral field and tickets were already being sold on that basis, but no one told the Cincinnati Bengals (14-4) what script had been written. Instead they dominated the Buffalo Bills on the road in the Divisional Round and for a second season in a row they will head to Arrowhead Stadium for the AFC Championship Game.

Last season the Bengals upset the home team Kansas City Chiefs (15-3) as a big underdog and Joe Burrow has continued his dominance of this opponent since heading into the NFL by making it 3-0 against the Chiefs during the 2022 regular season. It is no wonder the spread is much closer for this AFC Championship Game compared with when they met last year, while the additional reason is the high ankle sprain Patrick Mahomes is dealing with.

The Kansas City Quarter Back has been in practice, but most feel he is going to be limited at best once the real game starts.

That is obviously far from ideal for the Chiefs who know how important the mobility of Patrick Mahomes is to his overall game and losing that, or being limited, has proven to be hard to overcome in previous games when suffering with an injury. He has been well protected by the Offensive Line, but a part of that success is down to being able to scramble away from the pressure and I do think Patrick Mahomes is not going to be as strong in that aspect of his play in the AFC Championship Game.

When these teams met last month, the Kansas City Chiefs were able to run the ball really well and they may have to lean on that approach again if Andy Reid feels his Quarter Back is not at full health. However, there has been an improvement in the performance of the Cincinnati Defensive Line when it comes to clamping down on the run as they have gotten healthier on this side of the ball.

Andy Reid is also a Head Coach that can lose interest in running the ball and it may be on Patrick Mahomes to lead the Kansas City Chiefs as he has done for much of his time with the team. The Quarter Back will have spaces in the Secondary to expose if he is able to put weight on his damaged ankle and Travis Kelce is expected to have a strong game for the Chiefs.

As I've said a few times, much will depend on how healthy Patrick Mahomes is and even a fully healthy Quarter Back might have had some issues beating Cincinnati.

He has yet to do that since Joe Burrow arrived in Cincinnati and the Bengals have momentum behind them after upsetting the Buffalo Bills on the road. The team are also getting healthier at the right time and the Offensive Line used the week between the Wild Card and Divisional PlayOff games to just work out how they were going to plug the gaps left by injured players.

That performance against the Buffalo Bills was really impressive from the Offensive Line which bullied the Bills up front and protected Joe Burrow when he stepped back to throw. The punishing moves to get Joe Mixon on track was huge in the win over Buffalo and stopping the run has been something of a weakness for the Kansas City Chiefs, which can only mean good things for the Cincinnati Bengals as they look to return to the Super Bowl.

If they can establish the run, Joe Burrow and the passing game should be able to purr into action. There are some top Receiving options for a Quarter Back that has thrived in playing big games both in College and in the pro ranks, while running the ball anywhere nearly as well as they did last week will mean Joe Burrow has a touch more time in the pocket to make the big plays downfield.

Kansas City's Secondary have played well down the stretch, but they won't have come up against too many teams with as dynamic playmakers as the Cincinnati Bengals.

I do like the chances of seeing a repeat rather than revenge in this AFC Championship Game after the Bengals upset the Chiefs in January 2022. While this won't be the same level of upset, the Bengals are the underdog again and Joe Burrow and company will play with the motivation of wanting to prove people wrong again.

Patrick Mahomes is not expected to be at full health, which is a blow for the Kansas City Chiefs, while this has been a team that have regularly been over-rated by the odds compilers this season.

Cincinnati are 5-1 against the spread in the last six between these teams, while they are also 13-2-1 against the spread in their last sixteen against a team with a winning record.

The Chiefs have been struggling against the numbers and they are a surprising 1-8-1 against the spread in their last ten at home. A poor record against the Bengals will be a mental obstacle to overcome and I think the road underdog can find a way to reach back to back Super Bowls with a victory at Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC Championship Game in consecutive years.

MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cincinnati Bengals + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open Tennis Day 14 Pick- Men's Final 2023 (January 29th)

It felt like she was the best player in the tournament, but Aryna Sabalenka showed extreme mental strength to win her first Grand Slam title from a set behind against the Wimbledon Champion Elena Rybakina.

This could really be the beginning of a dominant spell for Sabalenka, who will be considered amongst the favourites at Wimbledon and the US Open, although the clay courts will provide the next Grand Slam challenge. Before then, Aryna Sabalenka will be looking to put up some significant Ranking points in the tournaments to be played in February and March and to build on the momentum she has created for herself this month.

Elena Rybakina will also be able to bounce back from this defeat- she is now officially into the top 10 of the World Rankings and has a game that will be dangerous on the faster surfaces in the second half of the season.

The Pick from the women's Final returned another winner to cement what has been a strong tournament and there is just one more match to be played in Melbourne in 2023.

It should be a good one as the men take centre stage on the Rod Laver Arena.

Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: Carlos Alcaraz, the World Number 1, has been a big miss at the tournament, but the reality of the ATP Tour is that Novak Djokovic is still considered the best player in the world even when the Rankings have not reflected that over the last twelve months. Not being able to play in two of the four Grand Slam events clearly impacted the Ranking Points, while Novak Djokovic won the Wimbledon title where the Points had been removed.

It is fitting that his return to Melbourne has Novak Djokovic once again reaching the Final at the Australian Open, where he has not been beaten since 2018, and winning a tenth Slam here will mean the Serb is once again Number 1 in the World.

However, Stefanos Tsitsipas is playing in his second Grand Slam Final this week having finally gotten through the Semi Final Round at the Australian Open. He has been beaten three times in the Semi Final at Melbourne Park previously, but Stefanos Tsitsipas overcame a couple of nervy moments in his four set win over Karen Khachanov on Friday and will feel plenty confident about where his tennis is as he looks for a maiden Grand Slam title.

And like Novak Djokovic, winning the title here will mean Stefanos Tsitsipas will be the new World Number 1 on Monday morning.

Stefanos Tsitsipas will know the kind of challenge that is in front of him- in his previous Grand Slam Final at the French Open, the Greek player led Novak Djokovic 2-0 in sets before losing in five sets and this is the court that Djokovic has been at his most dominant.

Despite carrying a hamstring issue, Novak Djokovic has been incredibly good this week and I think it is going to take something special to beat him on his return to Melbourne. While he has put together stronger tournaments at the Australian Open in terms of pure numbers, this has still been one of his best two weeks at Melbourne Park and Novak Djokovic has been incredibly strong behind both serve and return.

The test for Stefanos Tsitsipas is going to be how well he can serve- he has held 91% of his service games at the tournament, but I cannot shake off the performance against Jannik Sinner when the Italian missed over twenty Break Point chances in an eventual defeat.

Novak Djokovic is playing at a level where he is not going to be wasteful at the big moments and he broke Tommy Paul seven times in the Semi Final, which means every opponent has been broken at least five times through the tournament. The nine time Champion will have been a little disappointed with one or two loose service games, but Novak Djokovic has a massive edge when it comes to returning numbers between himself and Stefanos Tsitsipas.

This has been a fact that has also been evident in their head to head matches, which have been dominated by Novak Djokovic since losing two of the first three between these players. Since then, Novak Djokovic has won nine straight matches against Stefanos Tsitsipas and has beaten him three times on the hard courts since early October 2022.

The former World Number 1 has held 88% of his service games compared with Stefanos Tsitsipas' 76% mark in their head to head contests, while that edge has been even clearer if you only consider the matches played against one another over the last twelve months. The Tsitsipas serve is one that tends to get a few more easier points out of Novak Djokovic than most and he has won 68% of service points played against Djokovic in their three hard court matches in 2022, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has held 85% of service games played compared with 94% for his opponent.

Some will suggest that is not a massive difference in the percentages, but tennis really is a game of inches and it is a significant number. Novak Djokovic has also been playing at a clearly superior level to most in this tournament and I think he will be very difficult to beat as long as the body can hold up.

It would not be a massive surprise if Stefanos Tsitsipas took a set, but I think Novak Djokovic is going to exert more consistent pressure on the return. If the underdog can continue to produce a 66% first serve percentage, I do think he could push Djokovic, but Stefanos Tsitsipas may eventually be worn down by the mental and physical pressure of the long-time dominant Champion of this tournament and it could end up being another strong win for the Serb.

Novak Djokovic might 'only' be 12-6 in hard court Grand Slam Finals, but he is 9-0 in Australia compared with 3-6 in the United States.

His numbers have, unsurprisingly, been really strong in the Australian Open Final throughout his career and Novak Djokovic has won three of the last four Finals played here without dropping a set.

I can imagine the first set to be competitive, but Novak Djokovic should be able to get on top with his superior return play and I believe he can cover what is another big handicap mark, especially considering the quality of Stefanos Tsitsipas. Both are unbeaten in 2023, but Tsitsipas has had one or two close calls and Novak Djokovic's level looks like it could be too much to deal with over three or four hours.

MY PICK: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 44-30, + 15.68 Units (144 Units Staked, + 10.89% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 13 Pick 2022- Women's Final (January 29th)

The four Semi Final matches at the Australian Open have gone exactly the way the Picks were hoping and it has rallied after a slump in the selections in the middle of the tournament.

Just two matches remain at the first Grand Slam of the season and then I will be having a short break from the Tennis Picks too before looking to return when the first ATP 500 event of the season is scheduled to be played in Rotterdam. There are big events in the Middle East in February before the Tour moves onto the first Masters events on the hard courts of the United States, but before all that I am looking to round off this event with a couple more winners.

First up is the Women's Final and it is hard to look beyond the home hope.

Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 games v Danielle Collins: Neither one of these players have let me down at the Australian Open when I have backed them and I think it is a fitting Final between Ashleigh Barty and Danielle Collins who have been the two best players in the draw.

Once again the Women's game has underlined the feeling that it is a wide open draw at any Grand Slam being played with Danielle Collins the latest to reach a Final from left field. The number of new Winners and faces that not many would have tipped up to win a Grand Slam has been eye-opening to the void at the top of the Women's game and Danielle Collins will certainly believe she is capable of being the latest to join the likes of Bianca Andreescu, Sofia Kenin, Iga Swiatek, Barbora Krejcikova and Emma Raducanu as unfamiliar names to the casual viewer who have won Grand Slam titles.

Only two names have won multiple Slam titles in that time- Naomi Osaka had been dominant on the hard courts, but the other is Ashleigh Barty and the World Number 1 can underline her place at the top of the Women's game. A third Grand Slam on a third different surface would be a huge achievement and perhaps the void at the top is finally going to be filled by someone who may go into the next three Grand Slams as the favourite to win it all.

Ashleigh Barty is under pressure here as Australia looks for a first home Champion in Melbourne since 1978, but she has looked remarkably composed and showed little fear in demolishing Madison Keys in the Semi Final. You have to say that Ashleigh Barty has not really been tested at all in the tournament as she has backed up her pre-Australian Open form and I don't think she is going to be beaten now, unless suddenly realising what she is about to achieve.

Having won the French Open in 2019 and Wimbledon in 2021, I think Ashleigh Barty looks to have the right mentality to cope with the pressure. She is simply proving too strong for all she has faced and the straight sets win over Keys means Ashleigh Barty has won twenty sets in a row and players are barely winning games against her.

Danielle Collins is serving well at the tournament and I think that will stand her in good stead, but the pressure that is being built up by Ashleigh Barty may be too much to deal with. I have a lot of respect for the way the American has handled herself through adversity in this tournament and her last two wins have been very impressive as she has dismantled the games of Alize Cornet and Iga Swiatek.

The hard courts are well suited to Danielle Collins' game and she did beat Ashleigh Barty in Adelaide last year, a match that will be on her mind when coming into this one. She knows she can beat Barty, but I think the level of the Australian has gone up considerably since their last match in February 2021, and I would be surprised if Ashleigh Barty is not able to find a way to control the direction of this match once getting through a tight opening set.

As good as Danielle Collins has played at Melbourne Park, the numbers being produced by Ashleigh Barty are at an incredible level and she looks a player ready to make a bit of history. It would take a serious drop off of her intensity to see her fail to win the Australian Open now and I think it could be a seriously tough day in the office for Danielle Collins if she is not getting around 70% or better of her first serves in play.

Even then, Ashleigh Barty has been the considerably better return player on the numbers and I think she is going to find a way through a tight set before turning the screw and pulling away for a win and a cover.

MY PICK: Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 41-31, + 9.64 Units (144 Units Staked, + 6.69% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 10 Picks 2020 (January 29th)

The last of the Quarter Final matches that were played on Day 9 at the Australian Open was perhaps the most straight-forward of the four that were completed.

It might not have looked that way when looking at the scoreboard and noting that three of the four matches ended in straight sets, but Sofia Kenin and Ashleigh Barty were involved in close matches that could have easily swung another way.

Those two are ready to meet in the Semi Final in a couple of days, while Novak Djokovic largely made light work of Milos Raonic to earn his place in the last four.

However the best match of the day saw Roger Federer come through in five sets against Tennys Sandgren and the former World Number 1 was right to suggest he was 'lucky' to get through. All of the chances were with the American who missed seven match points, while the overall numbers from the match suggested that Sandgren was the player who deserved to win.

Roger Federer was suffering with an injury too and he does not have very long to get ready for this match which is likely going to see the layers set him as a significant underdog against Novak Djokovic. Matches between these players have been close over the last few years, but Djokovic has had the edge and he looks to be in much better shape all around in this one.


That's all for another day and the focus on Day 10 at the tournament is the remaining four Quarter Final matches that are scheduled to be played.

Tennis Picks from those matches can be read below.


Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Anett Kontaveit: For much of the Australian Open Anett Kontaveit has been in imperious form, but she had to ride out some difficult moments and also rally from blowing a big lead in her win in the Fourth Round. The final set saw Kontaveit lose a 5-1 lead, but hold herself together in a 7-5 win, although it was a match that could have easily gone another way with a couple of bounces of the ball.

The win will have given the Estonian confidence and she has crushed Belinda Bencic on her way through to the Quarter Final. Anett Kontaveit has been flying on both the serve and return so far in Melbourne and it does make her dangerous, although she does have a pretty poor record against top 20 and top 10 players on the hard courts.

She will be facing one of those in this Quarter Final as Simona Halep maintained her run of straight sets wins in the tournament when dismissing the in-form Elise Mertens in the last Round. The levels have been consistent from Halep throughout this tournament and she broke Mertens five times in the Fourth Round meaning she has managed that total in all four matches played at the Australian Open.

The return has always been a big part of the Simona Halep game, but she is also holding things together behind the serve even if the percentage of points won behind that shot is not as strong as the number Anett Kontaveit has produced in the tournament. Despite that, Kontaveit has faced eleven more break points than Simona Halep across the four matches at the tournament and I do think the edge has to be with the former World Number 1 in this Quarter Final.

In their two previous matches Simona Halep's return and serve have been a lot more efficient than Anett Kontaveit's. However it has been three years since they last met one another and so I am not sure the head to head has a major impact in this game.

Over the last twelve months there might not be much between these players in terms of the basic numbers, but Anett Kontaveit has struggled when facing the best players on the Tour on this surface. I have a lot of respect for the way Kontaveit was able to blow Belinda Bencic off the court, but Simona Halep is in good form and I do think she can wear down the Estonian in a good looking match.


Garbine Muguruza - 3.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: Two of the hottest players in the Women's tournament meet in the Quarter Final and I do think both Garbine Muguruza and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova will understand the opportunity in front of them.

Garbine Muguruza has won two Grand Slam titles and reached the Final of another, but she has yet to surpass the Quarter Final at either of the Slams played on the hard courts. Her best effort was a run that ended in the Quarter Final in Melbourne in 2017, but the performances of the Spaniard in the last two Rounds suggests she could be peaking as she has done at Grand Slam tournaments at the right time in the past.

Her opponent Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova did win the Australian Open Juniors title, but she has not found the consistency on the professional Tour that she would have liked. Not many would have predicted this being a player that would not have been able to crack the top 10 of the World Rankings, but that has been the case so far in her career and at 28 years old chances are beginning to run down to win a Slam.

While the Russian has not played in a Grand Slam Semi Final before, she is going to be trying to make the breakthrough having been beaten in the Quarter Final in five previous Slams and Pavlyuchenkova has reached that Round at all four Grand Slams played. Her best successes have come at the Australian Open where she is playing in her third Quarter Final having reached this Round in 2017 and 2019.

Only one of the five previous Grand Slam Quarter Final losses have been uncompetitive so nerves have not really affected Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in a manner you may have expected. She has been serving very well at the Australian Open in 2020 and Pavlyuchenkova's return numbers would have been much better if she had been more efficient when it comes to the break points behind created.

The Russian has created at least fourteen break points in each of her last three matches here, but you do have to wonder if the accumulated time on court is going to be a detriment to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. She has now spent over seven hours on court to win her last three matches and faces Garbine Muguruza who needed a little more than two hours to win back to back matches behind a huge serve having won 77% of service points across those two matches.

It is the serve that is going to be the dominant shot for both, but Muguruza also looks to be peaking with her return and I do think that gives her the edge in the Quarter Final. Over the last twelve months the numbers on the hard courts have been similar, but I do think the Spaniard is playing the stronger tennis and she should be the fresher player at this stage of the tournament.

Garbine Muguruza also has the better head to head record, although their last hard court meeting was three and a half years ago. While those head to heads should not be a major factor in the match, I do think the Garbine Muguruza return proved decisive in those matches and the feeling is that we are going to see something similar here.

The two time Grand Slam Champion looks to be playing the big points a little better than Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and that might be the difference on the day. I would have loved this selection if the game handicap had been one game lower like the initial line came out, but I am still happy enough to back Garbine Muguruza to wear down Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in this one too.


Alexander Zverev - 1.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: This looks to be a fascinating Quarter Final between a young player looking to reach a maiden Grand Slam Semi Final against a veteran who has won multiple Slam titles but still surprisingly made his way through the Australian Open draw.

Stan Wawrinka is a former Champion here, and he looks to be over some of the injury concerns which saw him slip down the World Rankings. He did reach two Grand Slam Quarter Finals in 2019, but he is back at this stage for the first time since 2017 at the Australian Open.

The hard court numbers produced by Wawrinka over the last couple of years have not been the most impressive, particularly the return of serve where he has had some difficulties. Breaking serve has tended to be a problem for him, but Wawrinka has played well enough in this tournament and he did create eleven break points during his Fourth Round upset of Daniil Medvedev.

However you would think he is going to be tested by Alexander Zverev who has reached a Quarter Final at a Slam for the first time away from the French Open. The German has quietly gone about his business having been in poor form at the ATP Cup and Zverev has yet to drop a set which means he should be fresher than Stan Wawrinka even though the latter has benefited from the Third Round win over John Isner which ended prematurely when Isner pulled out in the second set.

Even then Stan Wawrinka has spent a couple of hours more on court and Alexander Zverev has been serving with huge success through the first four Rounds. It does have to be factored in that only one of those four opponents are inside the top 50 of the World Rankings, but Alexander Zverev has won matches in exactly the fashion expected which should have boosted confidence.

Alexander Zverev has dropped serve five times in the tournament and it has allowed him to take chances on the return. His overall performances have been at a consistently good level and Stan Wawrinka has just about edged out a couple of opponents and there has to be some questions about the fatigue building up despite ending as strongly as he did against Daniil Medvedev a couple of days ago.

The German had a considerable edge on the return of serve in their previous matches, but I think the bigger factor here is going to be how well Alexander Zverev handles the occasion. In his two previous Grand Slam Quarter Finals he has invested so much into those tournaments to get to that Round that he had nothing let to give, but this time he should be the fresher player and I think Alexander Zverev can come through in what may develop into an epic Quarter Final.


Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games v Dominic Thiem: This is going to be the fourteenth time Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem are meeting on the Tour, but all but one of the last thirteen have been played on the clay courts. They have previously met five times at Grand Slam level and Rafael Nadal has won all of those matches, but the most competitive was a Quarter Final at the US Open in 2018 which was won by the Spaniard in five sets.

Rafael Nadal made an awful start in that Quarter Final as he dropped the first set 0-6 and it was a very competitive match all around. It is the only time Dominic Thiem has reached the Quarter Final at a Grand Slam outside of the French Open, although he has been impressive so far in Melbourne as he matched the run in New York City eighteen months ago.

The Austrian crushed Gael Monfils in the Fourth Round, but he has dropped three sets during his run to the last eight in Melbourne. At least the last match was fairly routine which means Dominic Thiem has had the full amount of time expected to get himself mentally and physically ready for this challenge and he will also be hoping Nadal is suffering from any tiredness that may have lingered from spending over three and a half hours on court in beating Nick Krygios in the Fourth Round.

One set was dropped in the victory for Nadal who has been cruising through the tournament prior to the Fourth Round. The serve has been a huge weapon for Nadal who has dropped it just twice in the last three Rounds and winning a huge percentage of points meaning opponents have earned just three break points in those matches too.

The Dominic Thiem serve has also been in good order for the most part, but the first three opponents faced in Melbourne all created seven break points in their matches against him. In the main Thiem has been in fine form behind his own serve, but this is now going to be tested by a returner like which he has not faced in the tournament and I think Rafa Nadal is playing well enough to find the break point chances like he has throughout this tournament.

Over the last twelve months Rafael Nadal has been the stronger hard court player than Dominic Thiem by some distance. That match back in New York City eighteen months ago saw Nadal make a very slow start, but as long as he can weather the early storm his serve has the slight edge which can see the World Number 1 end up pulling away and securing a good looking win on the day.

MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 32-27, + 4.46 Units (120 Units Staked, + 3.72% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2019 (January 29-30)

The FA Cup Fourth Round covered the weekend schedule for many clubs up and down the country, but that does mean a full Premier League round of fixtures has to be played on Tuesday and Wednesday.

With only two weeks to go before the Champions League and Europa League resume, February is a very busy month for the top clubs in the Premier League. That is especially the case for the likes of Manchester City and Chelsea who have progressed to the League Cup Final and the FA Cup Fifth Round meaning they will be playing two games a week for the entire month and squad rotation is going to be key to the managers as they also try and maintain the momentum picked up.


The fixtures are split over two days this midweek and it gives Manchester City, Arsenal and Manchester United the chance to put some pressure on their rivals for the Premier League title and the top four places. There are big games for those clubs fighting against relegation too as Fulham host Brighton on Tuesday and Southampton host Crystal Palace on Wednesday and Fantasy Football is back this week too.


Below you can read the selections from the games as well as the stand out players for Fantasy purposes, although I did mention I am thinking of a new way to promote the players I like going forward.


Arsenal v Cardiff City Pick: The Premier League is back after last weekend was reserved for FA Cup Fourth Round action.

Arsenal were one of those clubs involved, but a 1-3 home defeat to Manchester United really upset the locals. I really am not sure why the Arsenal fans are so quick to jump on a few negative results and I believed they would give Unai Emery some time to transition his team as he would like, especially after hounding out Arsene Wenger at the end of last season.

Perhaps the overachievement earlier in the season has raised expectations too much, but Arsenal were picking up results that they perhaps had not deserved to at that time. The substitutions made by Emery in the long unbeaten run suggested he had the Midas touch, but that has not been the case as much recently.

To be perfectly frank I am not sure what the Arsenal fans are moaning about- yes it is never nice to lose at home in the Cup and defeats to Tottenham Hotspur in the League Cup and Manchester United in the FA Cup would have hurt. However Unai Emery has his team just 3 points out of the Champions League spots and they are still involved in the Europa League with the ambition to return to the premier European competition still very much the goal for the club.

The fans should be happier at the end of this ninety minutes anyway as Arsenal can join Chelsea on the same number of points if they win this game. They should be able to do that with the better performances in recent weeks coming at the Emirates Stadium and they are facing a Cardiff City team struggling for goals and confidence.

It is going to be an emotional evening for Cardiff City who play for the first time since Emiliano Sala's plane went missing over the English Channel just days after signing for the club. While that search continues privately, most will accept that Sala's fate has been decided and it is going to be hard for the players and fans even if he had not yet pulled on the shirt for the club.

Neil Warnock has to try and help the players through a difficult time, but this fixture looks a tough one and his focus may already be on the next two League games against Bournemouth and Southampton where Cardiff City have more chances to earn points. Against the top teams Cardiff City have conceded too many goals and they don't score enough and I do think that will be the case here too.

Arsenal have recently beaten the likes of Burnley and Fulham by two or more goal margins and even through their defensive problems I think the home team will be able to do that here.

Fantasy Star: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang- I can see many people picking him with what looks a relatively comfortable home game to come. The Gabonese striker remains in good form through Arsenal's inconsistencies.

Alternative: Saed Kolasinac- I considered him if only because this should be a good chance for Arsenal to keep a rare clean sheet. The left back is also a threat going forward and good for an assist or two.


Fulham v Brighton Pick: This is a big game for Fulham who are trying to somehow put a positive run together and give themselves a chance of avoiding the drop. It has also become an important one for Brighton and Chris Hughton who selected a weakened team in a very open FA Cup that means having to go through a Replay and that decision was made with the Premier League games to come in mind.

Failing to get a result in their two League games this week will make that FA Cup selection stand out, but Hughton does enjoy the support of the fans who are going to give him time as manager after the successes of the last couple of years.

Claudio Ranieri does not enjoy that same rapport with the Fulham fans yet and the Italian manager is facing increasing pressure as his team can't find any consistency. With games against Brighton and Crystal Palace to come this week, Fulham have to be targeting at least four points to give them hope of closing the gap to those teams outside the bottom three in the Premier League table.

It should make this a tense fixture on what is going to be a cold evening in London on Tuesday with some suggestions it could even be snowing. The performances on the pitch have not exactly warmed things up for the Fulham fans, but they have given it a go at home and I do think a little more fortune would have seen better results for them.

Finding the balance between attack and defence has been difficult and this Brighton team do offer more of a threat going forward away from home than they did twelve months ago. However they also look a little vulnerable defensively despite the organisation and shape given to them by the manager and the layers may have underestimated the chance of seeing at least three goals here.

I do think both teams will have opportunities to find the net and there is enough on the line to think neither manager will settle for a point. It will do Brighton more good than Fulham, but the home team pushing ahead may leave spaces to exploit and I will back at least three goals to be shared out between these teams on Tuesday evening.

Fantasy Star: Aleksander Mitrovic- he is on penalty duties and likely to be the key to any points Fulham can get out of this one.

Alternative: Shane Duffy- has scored a couple of big goals for Brighton away from home and Fulham do look vulnerable from set pieces.


Huddersfield Town v Everton Pick: A new manager can sometimes give a team a real boost in confidence, but it is going to take more than that for Huddersfield Town to escape the trapdoor in the Premier League this season. At least the arrival of Jan Siewert may make the transition from David Wagner a little easier for the players to manage with the new boss also fresh off the Borussia Dortmund II production line.

Siewert has had a few days to get his ideas across to his new team, but Huddersfield Town have to find a major source of goals to have any chance over the next couple of months. The preparation has probably already begun for life back in the Championship after three special seasons under David Wagner, but Siewert has to hope there is some fight left in his players.

This could be a good chance for Huddersfield Town to earn some priceless points as they host an Everton team who have been struggling for consistency. Marco Silva is under pressure and he won't have been helped by a controversial goal awarded to Millwall in their upset win over Everton in the FA Cup Fourth Round on Saturday.

Everton did crush Burnley 1-5 at Turf Moor at the end of last month, but they have been erratic away from home and it is very hard to know what to expect from them. The 5 losses in 6 away games in all competitions have seen Everton go down at Brighton, Southampton and Millwall in their last 3 away games and I do think this is a team that is struggling to perform for the manager.

On a pure talent level Everton should be beating Huddersfield Town easily and the home team have lost 5 in a row in front of their own fans. However I do think Everton are looking just as short as they did in the Cup tie at Millwall and The Terriers have had a few more days to prepare and could have a positive reaction for a new manager.

Ultimately I wouldn't risk too much on this selection because Huddersfield Town are a poor side and Everton have shown flashes of their ability. With that in mind I will back Huddersfield Town with a start to avoid defeat at the very least.

Fantasy Star: Lucas Digne- I know I've written I fancy Huddersfield Town to get something from this game, but the lack of goals can't be ignored. Lucas Digne also strikes a mean free kick so assists and goals are also relevant for him.

Alternative: Jonas Lossl- if Huddersfield Town are going to get a point, maybe investing funds on a cheap goalkeeper is the way forward for this one. Jonas Lossl will need a big game for The Terriers to secure any point they potentially earn.


Wolves v West Ham United Pick: Both Wolves and West Ham United were considered clubs who could focus on the FA Cup and have a very deep run in a competition that was going to lose at least two of the big six by the end of the Fourth Round. Tottenham Hotspur were also going to exit, while both Wolves and West Ham United had away trips to struggling clubs from League One.

Unbelievably both clubs found themselves trailing by multiple goals at Shrewsbury Town and AFC Wimbledon respectively, but Wolves were able to come from 2-0 down to earn a late 2-2 draw and enter the hat for the Fifth Round.

West Ham United were not so capable as they trailed 3-0 at League One bottom club AFC Wimbledon and were eventually beaten 4-2 in a fixture that left manager Manuel Pellegrini 'ashamed'. Many of those starters won't get many opportunities through the remainder of this season and Pellegrini will be expecting a big reaction from his players on Tuesday.

It is a tough ground to get that reaction considering West Ham United have lost 3 away games in a row and conceded at least twice in each defeat. On the other hand Wolves have won 4 of their last 6 at Molineux and beaten the likes of Chelsea and Liverpool in that run.

Nuno Espirito Santo will pick a much stronger team for this League game than he did in the Cup and I do think Wolves have the edge with home field the key. They have been scoring plenty of goals at home of late and I expect them to expose the vulnerable West Ham United defence while the latter set of players will have really taken a big confidence hit from the defeat at AFC Wimbledon.

There will be a stronger West Ham United team out for this one too, but I think Wolves at home are a tough proposition for many teams. They should have enough goals to edge this one and I will look for Wolves to win this one, but backing them on the Asian Handicap at least returns half your stake in the event of a draw.

Fantasy Star: Raul Jimenez- came off the bench to give Wolves a lifeline in their two goal recovery in the 2-2 draw at Shrewsbury Town on Saturday. Leads the line for Wolves and should have chances in this one.

Alternative: Diego Jota- playing further up the pitch and well rested after his hat-trick exploits last time out against Leicester City. Getting to grips with the Premier League now.


Manchester United v Burnley Pick: I stated on Saturday that I was not convinced Burnley were too bothered about the FA Cup Fourth Round tie at Manchester City, but they have suffered multiple times on that ground over the last eighteen months. The 5-0 defeat was thus not a big surprise, but Burnley have had more success at Old Trafford having earned a point in each of their last two visits here.

Sean Dyche will remind his players of that and try and get them to ignore the strong run that Manchester United have been on.

Any team that wins 8 in a row in all competitions has to be respected and Manchester United look to be playing with a confidence that has been missing in the last twelve months. They are getting forward in numbers and teams are beginning to feel the pressure of the attacking talent Manchester United have.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has to be given credit for taking off the handbrake from his team and the players have responded with smiles leading to very strong performances. The win at Arsenal on Friday was arguably the best performance of the lot as Manchester United fully deserved a 1-3 win at the home of a top four rival and I expect them to back that up on Tuesday.

You know Burnley will be physically tough and defensively well organised, but they have struggled against the top clubs this season. Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool have had comfortable away wins against them, while Manchester City (twice) and Arsenal have beaten them by two or more goals at home.

They were involved in a stubborn 1-0 defeat at Wembley Stadium against Tottenham Hotspur, but the home team missed a lot of chances that day and Burnley are going to need to ride their luck in a similar manner here. At the moment Manchester United have too many players in good form to believe that will happen and I will look for the home team to win by a comfortable margin on the night.

Fantasy Star: Paul Pogba- Marcus Rashford has been the key player for Manchester United of late, but Paul Pogba's driving runs through the middle has led to more shots on goal than earlier in the season. Back on penalty duty too.

Alternative: Victor Lindelof- Manchester United have struggled for clean sheets, but Victor Lindelof been the stand out performer in the defence. Getting closer to a first goal for United in the last couple of games too.


Newcastle United v Manchester City Pick: There is a clear difference in squad depth between Newcastle United and Manchester City and the performances in the FA Cup Fourth Round on Saturday underlined that.

Both Rafael Benitez and Pep Guardiola will pick stronger teams for this Premier League fixture as both Newcastle United and Manchester City are desperate for the three points for differing reasons.

However let's not beat around the bush and state that Benitez would rip your arm off if you handed him a point right now. That was the case when these teams played last season at St James' Park as Newcastle United barely came out of their defensive shell and ended with a comfortable 0-1 defeat to Manchester City.

I don't think Benitez is going to change his opinions for this one and I expect Newcastle United to sit in with a lot of numbers and hope to steal something on the break. The main ambition will be to contain Manchester City though and make sure Newcastle United have something to steal in the final twenty minutes, but it is a big ask on the current form of the two teams.

Manchester City have been scoring goals for fun over the last month and while the majority of the biggest wins have come at home, they have scored at least three goals in back to back away Premier League wins. This Newcastle United team have conceded at least two goals to Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United at home this season and I fully expect Manchester City to have too much for their hosts and put the pressure on Liverpool.

My gut feeling is that Newcastle United are going to hope for something to break their way and they may well decide to accept a defeat as long as they are not hammered in this one. With a limited threat the other way, I think Manchester City will be able to win this one with a clean sheet to boot.

Fantasy Star: Raheem Sterling- been well rested and should be itching to go. Scored the winner at St James' Park last season and also against them earlier this season too.

Alternative: Leroy Sane- another who has been well rested and should cause plenty of problems for Newcastle United.

Did want to stick Sergio Aguero here, but Gabriel Jesus is pushing him as a starter. Aguero has an amazing record against Newcastle United, but the majority of those goals have been at the Etihad Stadium.


Bournemouth v Chelsea Pick: This is a busy month coming up for Chelsea who have received the plaudits for their Cup exploits, but need to make sure they are finding some consistency in the Premier League. With Arsenal and Manchester United breathing down their necks, Maurizio Sarri is under pressure to get Gonzalo Higuain ticking immediately, while the Europa League is another potential avenue back into the Champions League.

Getting back into the premier European competition had to be the top goal for Sarri when he was appointed manager back in July and Chelsea have opened the door to the teams below them by winning half of their last 6 Premier League games.

They have remained strong away from Stamford Bridge though and I think Chelsea are facing Bournemouth at the right time with the home team struggling for consistency over the last couple of months. The Cherries have only lost 1 of their last 6 home Premier League games, but they've been visited by three of the top six so far this season and lost each of those games.

Bournemouth do have goals in the side which makes them dangerous, but Callum Wilson is a doubt for this one and that does hurt their chances. Dominic Solanke is not yet ready to make his debut and I can see a rested Eden Hazard inspiring Chelsea to a win at a ground where they have enjoyed plenty of success since Bournemouth were promoted to the Premier League.

As a Manchester United fan I would love to see Chelsea slip up here, but I don't think that happens on Bournemouth's current form and they can become the latest top six club to win at the Vitality Stadium. The Blues may need two goals to get it done, but Arsenal, Manchester United and Liverpool have hit at least two goals in visits to this ground in the 2018/19 season and I would not be surprised to see Chelsea do the same in an important away win.

Fantasy Star: Eden Hazard- boring selection, but he should be back in his favourite position and is the key performer whenever Chelsea play well.

Alternative: Gonzalo Higuain- I am not sure how Higuain is going to fit in with Chelsea in terms of getting used to the English style of football, but he should have chances for a first goal against a struggling Bournemouth team.


Southampton v Crystal Palace Pick: Teams sitting in 14th and 15th in the Premier League meet on Wednesday and neither Crystal Palace or Southampton can feel very comfortable about their current positions.

Both teams are 3 points clear of Cardiff City in 18th place and that means the winner in this League game may begin to feel they are going to be able to pull away from the relegation zone. However the losing team will be in danger of being dragged into a very tough relegation battle and that makes this an important and potentially tense fixture.

Out of the two teams Southampton may be trending in a more positive direction with consecutive League wins behind them at the same Crystal Palace have lost twice in a row in the Premier League. However The Eagles have shown they can be very effective away from home and Southampton remain vulnerable defensively to say the least.

On the other hand Southampton have looked very good going forward with some key players reinvigorated by the arrival of Ralph Hasenhuttl as manager and I do think this could develop into a very good game of football.

It may be one for the neutrals rather than the fans who will know the importance of winning this fixture, but the attacking threats coupled with the defensive issues suggests we could see at least three goals here. The last 6 games at St Mary's have all featured three or more goals, while 4 of the last 5 Crystal Palace games away from Selhurst Park have done the same.

5 of the last 7 between these clubs at St Mary's have also produced three or more goals shared out and I will back that to be the case in this one too.

Fantasy Star: Nathan Redmond- been in fine form under the new manager for Southampton and a real threat in the final third.

Alternative: Andros Townsend- this could be a fun game to watch and Townsend can take advantage of space afforded to him as Southampton perhaps focus on Wilfried Zaha. Perhaps on penalties too if Luka Milivojevic is on the bench.


Liverpool v Leicester City Pick: Two teams who should be well rested come into the live television offering from the Premier League on Wednesday night and both Liverpool and Leicester City are searching for the points for differing reasons.

The form of the two clubs is quite different too with Liverpool looking like they have bounced back effectively from early losses this month while things have worsened for Leicester City and Claude Puel.

The Frenchman has to be feeling the pressure as Leicester City manager with the defeat to Newport County in the FA Cup looking worse and worse when you think of the teams remaining in that competition. Winning silverware should be important to a team like Leicester City, but Puel has prioritised finishing 7th over a strong Cup run and that won't fit well with the agenda of the owners nor the fans.

It would be easy for the Leicester City players to down tools if they are as unhappy with Puel's methods as they seem to suggest, but instead they have rallied around their manager. Whenever Puel has been under pressure Leicester City have found a big performance but doing that at Anfield looks a long shot.

Liverpool have been very strong here with 9 straight wins and they have begun scoring plenty of goals. The 4-3 win over Crystal Palace ten days ago saw Liverpool score three or more goals for the fourth consecutive game at Anfield in the Premier League and they may need more of the same considering the defensive problems that still surround the club.

I would expect Virgil Van Dijk to be passed fit for this one, but Leicester City are capable of causing problems with the speed they have in the final third. They have given the top six clubs problems in fixtures against them and Leicester City could do the same for Liverpool despite losing 6 of their last 7 visits to Anfield including the last 3 in a row.

However they have only been beaten by more than two goals once in that run of visits and Leicester City can make this one a competitive outing too. Like I suggested with Crystal Palace, backing Leicester City with a two goal start on the Asian Handicap looks the way to go even if Liverpool may ultimately win the game.

At worst I would imagine the stake would be returned unless the Leicester City players have checked out on Claude Puel.

Fantasy Star: Mohamed Salah- another uninspiring selection, but Liverpool might need to outscore Leicester City with their defensive problems and Salah has four goals in last three at Anfield.

Alternative: Roberto Firmino- looks to be back in form and amongst the goals and Liverpool should have the majority of chances in this fixture.


Tottenham Hotspur v Watford Pick: If everyone was fit and firing for Tottenham Hotspur you would expect them to be too strong for Watford, but this is a very difficult patch for the home team. Mauricio Pochettino has been criticised for some of his comments made in the aftermath of the FA Cup exit on Sunday, but I really do feel he is overachieving by keeping Tottenham Hotspur in the top four while working with very little financial support.

That lack of support does mean the squad depth suffers and he could not risk key players burning out at a time when Dele Alli and Harry Kane are set to be on the sidelines for at least another month.

Mauricio Pochettino will feel justified in his approach if he can guide Tottenham Hotspur to a couple of wins this week when they host Watford and Newcastle United. The squad is still stretched though and Watford are proving to be no pushovers as they want to continue with the momentum they have put together.

A single loss in 10 games in all competitions is a very strong run for a club like Watford, while they have been even better on their travels. The Hornets are unbeaten in 6 on their travels in all competitions, but they have won 4 of those and have scored at least twice in each game.

They are still falling short against the very best teams though and Watford have lost all 5 games played against the top six in the Premier League since beating Tottenham Hotspur at home. The side have a poor record when visiting Tottenham Hotspur in the League too and I do think the players are going to bounce back from their Cup exit at Selhurst Park and prove the manager was right to rotate his squad.

Watford may play their part here, but I will back Tottenham Hotspur to win a fixture featuring two or more goals.

Fantasy Star: Christian Eriksen- should be back having been rested on Sunday and the key attacker who can supply the goals and assists for Tottenham Hotspur.

Alternative: Troy Deeney- if Watford are going to challenge Tottenham Hotspur, Troy Deeney may be the best avenue for goals.

MY PICKS: Arsenal - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred
Fulham-Brighton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.40 Betfair Sportsbook
Huddersfield Town + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Fred
Wolves - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 1.91 Bet Victor
Chelsea to Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred
Southampton-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Betfair Sportsbook
Leicester City + 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor
Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred