It may not have been the best end to the tournaments in Montreal and Toronto, but a strong Canadian Masters showing has pushed the season numbers back in a positive direction ahead of the last Masters event prior to the US Open.
The tournament started in Cincinnati on Thursday, while the Final will be played a week on Monday as the two hard court Masters tournaments prior to the US Open have been extended in terms of days and scheduling.
By then the US Open will be less than a week away from beginning and the players remain pretty unhappy with the change in the format, even if the majority of the biggest names are taking part at the Cincinnati Masters.
Tomas Machac - 2.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: The tennis Tour is constantly evolving and this feels like an opportunity for Tomas Machac to show how far he has come since losing to Adrian Mannarino at Indian Wells in March 2024.
While Tomas Machac has improved and is set for a Seeded spot at the US Open, Adrian Mannarino has slipped from close to the top 20 in the World Rankings eighteen months ago to now clinging onto a top 100 spot. Qualifying for both Masters events in Canada and Cincinnati will help reverse the decline, while the dominant First Round win should give Adrian Mannarino some confidence in what has been a tough year on the surface.
He is 37 years old now so the decline in the form has to be expected, and you always question how much desire will be left for any veteran if they were to fall back outside of the top 100.
With that in mind, Adrian Mannarino's couple of weeks in North America have been important.
In the first half of the year during the original hard court run, Adrian Mannarino had won just two matches on the surface and the losses had been piling up. This summer he has a 5-2 record on the hard courts in the build up to the US Open and one of those defeats came against Ben Shelton who went on to win the Canadian Masters in Toronto.
A couple of top 100 Ranked wins have been secured during this hard court run so Adrian Mannarino won't be lacking for confidence as he bids for the upset.
An early loss in Toronto means Tomas Machac has had time to rest and become accustomed to the conditions in Cincinnati, although the youngster has been struggling for form over the last couple of months. He is at his best and most comfortable on the hard courts, and won a big title in Acapulco earlier this season, although there is a concern with a lingering issue that has resulted in a number of walkover/mid-match retirements since then.
Since the last of those retirements at the French Open, Tomas Machac has a 3-3 record and he was upset by Reilly Opelka in Toronto.
However, this is a different sort of match compared with that one against a big serving player and it may allow Tomas Machac to settle into a better rhythm. He has to respect the career that Adrian Mannarino has had, but the Czechia player does get a lot more out of the serve and that can be crucial in what have been historically fast conditions in Cincinnati.
The 24 year old Tomas Machac has perhaps not reached the level of expectation that has been burdened by him, but this is an important month coming up and he can get off to a good start with a victory here.
Casper Ruud - 2.5 games v Arthur Rinderknech: Two wins in Toronto will have given Casper Ruud a boost in confidence having been out of action for a couple of months, while the defeat to Karen Khachanov does not look as poor considering he finished Runner Up at the Canadian Masters.
The US Open has been good to Casper Ruud and he will be keen to head to New York City with a bit more confidence and that can be built up with more victories out in Cincinnati.
His last three appearances at this Masters event have all ended very early since Casper Ruud reached the Quarter Final, but he may benefit from the Second Round draw. The opponent may have already placed a win in the record books in the First Round, but it has been a tough season for Arthur Rinderknech on the hard courts, while the head to head with Casper Ruud will offer very little encouragement.
All four previous Tour matches played between these players have been won by the Norwegian and Casper Ruud has yet to drop a set in any of those. Two of the wins have been earned this season with one of those on the hard courts and one on the clay courts and the match up should give Ruud the confidence to find a way past the World Number 64.
Prior to the tournament, Arthur Rinderknech had lost six straight hard court matches and he had been beaten in eleven of thirteen matches played on the surface. The Frenchman will be disappointed with his service numbers this season and that has placed additional pressure on what has been a struggling return game.
Arthur Rinderknech has never been the best return player on this surface, but those numbers have taken a significant dip this season and it should be an opportunity for Casper Ruud to progress without too much fuss.
In the previous four matches, Casper Ruud has held 95% of the service games played against Arthur Rinderknech, while also breaking in 30% of return games played. If he can get close to those numbers again, Ruud should be able to cover what looks to be a potentially awkward handicap on paper against a dangerous server.
MY PICKS: Tomas Machac - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Casper Ruud - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
2025 Season: 121-98, + 11.33 Units (270 Units Staked, + 4.19% Yield)
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