A number of the Day 7 matches have yet to begin at the time of writing, but there is Fourth Round action scheduled for Sunday and the selections from those matches can be read below.
The quality of the matches should ramp up as we move into the second week of this Grand Slam and especially with so many of the leading contenders still fighting their way through the draw.
It looks like it could be a special US Open compared with recent seasons when the final Grand Slam of the season has been negatively impacted by too many players not feeling at their best.
There are still some question marks about the way the two Masters events were scheduled this year, and that may be something that is forced to change in the years ahead, but in general this has been a tournament which has produced plenty of quality and that can only be a positive for the fans and the organisers.
Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: Two veterans of the Tour meet for a place in the US Open Quarter Final, but the Jan-Lennard Struff run to the Fourth Round really has come out of left field.
He is the younger player in this match and the German will take confidence out of the fact he was Qualifying matches before upsetting two Seeded players. That includes Jan-Lennard Struff beating Frances Tiafoe, a home player who has had considerable success at the US Open in recent years, and so there will be nothing wrong with the belief in the 35 year old's camp.
There has been little sign of the run after early losses in Cincinnati and Cancun so all credit has to be given to Jan-Lennard Struff.
His World Ranking will be back inside the top 100 at the end of the tournament, which is very important and Struff will feel there is nothing to lose for him in this Fourth Round match.
Another Seed stands in his way and Novak Djokovic looks to be doing just enough to progress through the Rounds.
There have been some concerns around Novak Djokovic who has looked a little vulnerable physically, but the overall match up in this Fourth Round clash should not be too concerning. The rallies are not expected to be extended and that should help Novak Djokovic, as will the familiarity with the opponent he is facing.
He has won all seven previous Tour meetings between the players and six of those have been on the hard courts.
The numbers have been heavily skewed in favour of Novak Djokovic with 87% of service games ending in holds, while also breaking in 42% of return games.
The former World Number 1 swept Jan-Lennard Struff aside at the US Open in 2020, although Novak Djokovic has not faced this opponent for a number of years.
It may mean needing a bit of time to just get a reading of the Struff serve, but you have to believe that Novak Djokovic will eventually begin to wear down this opponent and move into a position to cover a line that is in an awkward position.
Jessica Pegula - 4.5 games v Ann Li: One more win will see Ann Li move into a career best World Ranking, but the 25 year old deserves plenty of praise for reaching the Fourth Round at a Grand Slam for the first time.
This is after making the Cleveland Final last week and the confidence has to be flowing after early defeats in Montreal and Cincinnati.
Ann Li has always been a competitive performer on the hard courts and she has put together a decent year on the surface. She is likely to receive plenty of support from those in the stands, while Ann Li gave Madison Keys a serious test at the Australian Open earlier this year.
All of the pressure is on Jessica Pegula, who reached the Final at the US Open last year, and the World Number 4 will have plenty of respect for her compatriot. When they met at the French Open earlier this year, Jessica Pegula was perhaps a little wasteful when it came to converting the Break Points that she was able to create and that made it a tougher win than it perhaps should have been.
Ultimately it was a win and Jessica Pegula is a quality hard court player, even if she is going to be an underdog if facing any of the former Grand Slam Champions that are still lurking in the draw.
Jessica Pegula has been playing really well in New York City and clearly enjoys the atmosphere at the event having reached the Final eleven months ago.
She will need to serve well to try and keep the threat at bay and Ann Li is someone that will put every bit of effort on the line. This makes her a threat, and always capable of finding a way to cover the bigger lines, even in a losing effort, and Pegula will just have to be aware that she does not offer too much encouragement to her opponent.
If she can avoid doing that, Jessica Pegula should be the player with the majority of the Break Points and that should give her every chance to secure a pretty solid victory.
Elena Rybakina - 3.5 games v Marketa Vondrousova: The dominant win over Emma Raducanu has to have given Elena Rybakina a real boost in her bid to finally have a big impact at the US Open. Despite her obvious talent and the way she can play on the hard courts, Elena Rybakina has never before reached the Fourth Round in New York City.
She is into that Round this year, although faces another former Grand Slam Champion as Elena Rybakina did in the previous Round.
An injury hit twelve months has been the main reason Marketa Vondrousova has dropped down to World Number 60, while she suffered a couple of relatively early losses in Montreal and Cincinnati.
The lefty has not had much of an impact at the Grand Slam tournaments this year, but Marketa Vondrousova is a former Quarter Finalist at the US Open and the win over Jasmine Paolini in the Third Round is going to fill her with confidence. She has also beaten McCartney Kessler, another player Ranked higher than the Czech player, and so Vondrousova has to enter this match with the belief she can reach the last eight at Flushing Meadows again.
Marketa Vondrousova was pretty well beaten by Aryna Sabalenka in Cincinnati though and she will need some help from Elena Rybakina.
While not being at her absolute best throughout the first three Rounds, Elena Rybakina has a serve that will always set her up when she is producing her best from the line. She is also an aggressive return player with heavy groundstrokes pushing opponents back behind the baseline and Elena Rybakina did earn a very strong win over Marketa Vondrousova in their last meeting on the clay courts in 2023.
This is not going to be an easy match and facing a lefty serve can always be a challenge, but Elena Rybakina might just do enough to find a way to earn a maiden Quarter Final in New York City with a cover of this line.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
US Open Update: 17-12, + 3.54 Units (57 Units Staked, + 6.21% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment