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Friday, 1 August 2025

Canadian Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Friday 1st August)

The Canadian Masters continues on Friday and after an emotional night a couple of days ago when Eugenie Bouchard called time on her career in front of the home fans.

Injuries limited the impact Bouchard was able to make following a breakthrough year on the Tour over a decade ago and in reality it has felt like she had moved onto the next stage of her career already having joined the Pickleball Tour.

Some top names are in action on Friday as we conclude the Third Round and edge ever closer to the strange end of the tournaments, which are scheduled for next Thursday rather than the weekend as most events conclude.

The US Open is beginning at the end of August and the move into the month may just double down the focus for all of the players involved here before the Tour moves onto Cincinnati. Winning events now are no guarantee of playing well in New York City, but the confidence boost cannot hurt, especially in the men's tournament which is missing arguably the three favourites for the final Grand Slam of the year.

The weekly total will be added to this thread on Friday morning when the night session in Toronto/Montreal has been completed with the sole selection made on Thursday to be played in the early hours of the morning.


Ben Shelton - 2.5 games v Brandon Nakashima: In individual sports like tennis, there does sometimes feel like a hierarchy is in place between compatriots- the World Ranking will show that more often than not, but there is also a mental challenge for a lower Ranked or younger player when it comes to facing someone whose game they will be very familiar with.

Maybe that is the case for Brandon Nakashima when going up against fiery Ben Shelton who has won all four of their previous matches on the Tour.

Two of those wins have been this year on the hard courts of Melbourne and Indian Wells, while twelve months ago, Ben Shelton also beat Brandon Nakashima in Washington. All nine sets have been won by Shelton, the World Number 7 and a leading hope for American fans when it comes to the US Open which will begin later in the month.

Brandon Nakashima made harder work of his Second Round win on Wednesday than it needed to be, but he played well and continues to beat those that he is expected to beat, especially on the hard courts. However, it is not only Ben Shelton who has caused him problems on the surface and Nakashima has something to prove in this Third Round match in Toronto.

Over the last twelve months, Brandon Nakashima has a 9-12 record on the hard courts when facing opponents Ranked higher than himself, but that reads 1-6 when only considering matches played in 2025. The numbers have been really poor as far as the World Number 32 is concerned with the hold of serve percentage dipping to 78% in those matches and breaks of serve being converted in just 10% of return games played.

You would have to expect Brandon Nakashima to be able to roll through some of his service games in this match, but it is hard to know how he will be able to create chances against the Ben Shelton serve.

Scoreboard pressure becomes a factor if that is the case and in the three previous hard court matches between the compatriots, Brandon Nakashima has broken in 8% of service games and won fewer than 30% of the points played on the Shelton delivery.

Ben Shelton is still a player looking to develop his game into a position where he can win a Grand Slam, even if he has made big impacts at Major level in his short time on the Tour. One of the key areas that needs to be improved is the return of serve and Shelton should be given credit for the fact that he is winning a few more points and breaking a bit more in hard court matches in 2025 compared with 2024.

One may be all that is needed to cover this handicap mark set and Ben Shelton's history against his fellow American is tough to ignore as he looks to reach the business end of the tournament north of the border.


Emma Raducanu v Amanda Anisimova: She toughed out her first match on the Tour since the Wimbledon Final and Amanda Anisimova has to be given credit for getting back to winning ways.

There is no doubt that the confidence will have been hurt by the manner of the loss to Iga Swiatek, but over the next few weeks Amanda Anisimova will be on familiar ground in the United States and the fans are going to be firmly behind her. This should help in Cincinnati and at the US Open, but it may be tougher to find support in Montreal against Emma Raducanu, who was born in Canada, although moved to the United Kingdom when very young and so represents Great Britain.

It has been tough for Emma Raducanu to live up to the hype of the US Open win in 2021, but there have been some positive signs that the tennis is picking back up.

Two more solid runs in Montreal and Cincinnati may see Emma Raducanu Seeded when the US Open draw is made and there have been plenty of wins put on the board to rebuild some confidence. Solid runs on the grass courts would have been expected and Raducanu has backed that up by beginning her bid for a second US Open when reaching the Semi Final in Washington.

She has had to play through two Rounds at the Canadian Masters and Emma Raducanu has really impressed in her wins over Elena Gabriela Ruse and Peyton Stearns.

Of course this is a much tougher match, but Emma Raducanu will hold the mental edge over Amanda Anisimova having beaten her at the Australian Open and in Miami. Both hard court wins have been deserved with Raducanu creating 10 Break Points in each match and Amanda Anisimova has yet to win a set.

The overall hard court numbers produced by these two players are actually very similar over the course of the season- Amanda Anisimova may have more faith in her second serve, but Emma Raducanu has been the slightly more effective return player and it is the latter who has been able to impose her strengths with more consistency in the two matches played against one another.

Amanda Anisimova is a very good player and the World Number 7, but the momentum may be with Emma Raducanu right now and she can edge through in this good Third Round match.


Elina Svitolina - 4.5 games v Anna Kalinskaya: Outside of the absolute elite, women's tennis have had a number of upstarts put together a solid year, but who have been unable to sustain the success they have been having.

Anna Kalinskaya was just outside of the top ten in the World Rankings in October 2024, but injury and a loss of form has held her back and her overall hard court numbers in 2025 have been disappointing.

However, she reached the Final in Washington last weekend and two wins have been earned in Montreal, which will just help the World Number 31 as she looks to secure a Seeding for the US Open. However, it has been far from easy this week at the Canadian Masters with Kalinskaya needing to play all six sets possible in her two wins, while also spending a lot of time on the court.

She has perhaps been fortunate to win her opening two matches having put in so much effort last week in Washington and you have to wonder if that is going to catch up with her.

Next up is a match against Elina Svitolina, who won't find it hard to be motivated when facing a Russian national, and the World Number 13 continues to be a consistent performer on the hard courts. Winning a Grand Slam remains the ambition in what has been an era of opportunity for women's players without a dominant Champion leading the way, but Elina Svitolina has not quite been able to get over the line.

A 28-15 record on the hard courts since the beginning of 2024 underlines the confidence Elina Svitolina has when playing on this surface.

She was a solid Second Round winner in Montreal and Elina Svitolina should have plenty more in the tank compared with her opponent having not played a tournament since Wimbledon.

These two players have met twice on the Tour on clay and on the hard courts and both matches have been won very well by Elina Svitolina. She should be able to exert her will on this match against a potentially tired opponent and that could allow the highest Ranked player to also cover a decent sized line on the handicap.


Naomi Osaka - 3.5 games v Jelena Ostapenko: Overall the numbers have continued to look decent, but Naomi Osaka is perhaps still struggling with dealing with the twists and turns that any match can potentially take.

There is something to be said about playing points with the match state in mind, but that is not always something that is seen from Naomi Osaka and especially not since returning to the Tour in a full time capacity.

Talent-wise, no one is going to deny how good Osaka can be- she has won four Grand Slam titles and that is more than the likes of Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff. However, the lack of consistency has held her back and that is going to be the main reason that Naomi Osaka will enter the US Open as a dark horse, rather than a favourite like she would have been when at her very best.

She did show plenty of fight and desire to beat Liudmila Samsonova in the Second Round, although Naomi Osaka was very close to being dumped out of the tournament.

In that match, Osaka was not seen as nearly the same strength of favourite as she is going to be in this Third Round match against Jelena Ostapenko.

Prior to the tournament, Jelena Ostapenko had a 6-8 record on the hard courts and five of those wins came in the same event in Doha when reaching the Final. One other win was in Adelaide and the World Number 26 might find the opponent standing across the other side of the net as having too much firepower for her.

Jelena Ostapenko is a steady performer on the hard courts, but she is very reliant on the first serve landing. If she is serving well, she is tough to beat, but her first serve average is not that high and that has allowed opponents to attack the second serve and force an aggressive player to ramp up that aggression on the return.

Any loose balls offered up to the former French Open Champion will be thumped, but there is going to be plenty of power coming from the other side of the net and Naomi Osaka will feel she can out-hit this player.

That was the case at the US Open last year, although Naomi Osaka has to find a bit more consistency in her return game if she is going to have serious ambitions of getting back amongst the elite. She can be helped in this match if Jelena Ostapenko is giving up plenty of looks at the second serve and that should help the lower Ranked player come through with a solid victory.

MY PICKS: Ben Shelton - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Emma Raducanu @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Naomi Osaka - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Taylor Fritz - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 4-1, + 2.12 Units (5 Units Staked, + 42.40% Yield)

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