The heat in Cincinnati has been a big factor at the tournament and the conditions remain incredibly tough for all who are scheduled to play Third Round matches on Monday.
A 1-1 return on Sunday produced the slightest of improvement on the weekly totals, which have been updated below, but it has still been a poor start to this Masters event.
Three selections have been identified from the matches to be played on Monday and those can be read below.
Felix Auger-Aliassime - 2.5 games v Arthur Rinderknech: He is certainly a player that can be tough to back with any confidence having fallen out of the top 20 of the World Rankings through inconsistency.
However, Felix Auger-Aliassime has put up some decent numbers on the hard courts in 2025 and he should have all of the qualities needed to beat Arthur Rinderknech.
The latter upset Casper Ruud, and me, with a strong win in the Second Round and is obviously playing with some confidence having struggled on the surface for much of the year. Things have been different in Cincinnati where Arthur Rinderknech has won two matches, the first time he has won two in a row on the hard courts since the Paris Masters last October, and that will give him belief.
Serving well will be key, but Felix Auger-Aliassime is unlikely to fall away as dramatically as Casper Ruud did in the last Round.
It was Auger-Aliassime who dominated when these players met on the grass in June and the Canadian has always been a pretty solid hard court player. Two titles have been won on the hard courts and the World Number 28 is likely going to serve with more consistency than Casper Ruud in the last Round and that should put him in a position to win and cover.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 games v Benjamin Bonzi: After losing at Wimbledon and then facing plenty of criticism from his Coach, Stefanos Tsitsipas has gone back to basics and hopes that will spark a turnaround in his career.
He has enjoyed Grand Slam successes in the past, although Stefanos Tsitsipas will be disappointed he has yet to win a Major, but these days he is clinging onto a top 30 World Ranking. The inconsistent performances have been a concern, and Tsitsipas has gone back to having his father take over the coaching duties, while an on-off relationship with Paula Badosa looks to have finally ended for good.
Perhaps it will allow Stefanos Tsitsipas to focus ahead of the last Grand Slam of the season, but a disappointing early loss in Toronto will have dented the already fragile confidence. It does make the tournament in Cincinnati feel that much more important and the former World Number 3 earned a solid win in the Second Round, which should give him something to build upon.
The returning numbers continue to hold him back, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has been serving well enough and that could provide him the edge in this Third Round match against Benjamin Bonzi.
If the Tsitsipas form has to be considered inconsistent, prior to the Cincinnati Masters you would only be able to describe Benjamin Bonzi's form has being almost non-existent on the hard courts this season.
The Frenchman had won two and lost five of the seven hard court matches played in 2025, but two consecutive wins will have given Bonzi a boost of his own.
Both have been in upsets against higher Ranked players, although the numbers suggest Benjamin Bonzi has been a little fortunate to come through against Matteo Arnaldi and Lorenzo Musetti. In those two wins, Bonzi has won 7/14 Break Points played, while also saving 19/24 Break Points faced, and those numbers may be tough to sustain considering the World Number 63 has held in 74% of service games played on the hard courts over the course of the year.
These two players have not met on the Tour for a couple of years and so the previous matches won by Stefanos Tsitsipas are perhaps not a big factor.
However, the service edge that Stefanos Tsitsipas should be able to enjoy in this match is hard to ignore and he may come through with a cover of the line set.
Elena Rybakina - 3.5 games v Elise Mertens: Semi Final defeats have been a feature of the season for Elena Rybakina, but the real heartbreaker for the former Wimbledon Champion is the manner of some of those losses.
Last week in Montreal, Elena Rybakina served for the match twice in the deciding set, while also missing out on a Match Point, and there was a huge miss in the penultimate service game that seemed to drain her of all confidence.
Even then, Elena Rybakina should have beaten Victoria Mboko and she is getting close to finding a breakthrough, which may spark a resurgence in her career. At the moment she does not look like a player that is ready to win the biggest prizes, but things can change very quickly on the WTA Tour and that will give the Rybakina supporters plenty of hope.
Next up for Rybakina is a match up with Elise Mertens and the World Number 10 can produce a fifth straight win over this opponent.
Elise Mertens has not had a bad year on the hard courts, but it has been tough for her when she has been up against players that are stronger than her.
A 1-5 record against higher Ranked players cannot be ignored, nor can the fact that Elise Mertens has been well beaten in the majority of those defeats. Her hard court numbers have dipped considerably when facing those stronger players and Elise Mertens will not have much confidence with her head to head with Elena Rybakina in mind.
Finding a way to serve well enough to curb the aggressive returning of Elena Rybakina will be tough, but that will also put pressure on Elise Mertens when it comes to impacting the serve that she will be facing.
Since Elena Rybakina has moved past Elise Mertens in the World Rankings, she has won three matches against the Belgian very impressively and another good, solid win can be secured in this Third Round match in Cincinnati.
MY PICKS: Felix Auger-Aliassime - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 1-3, - 1.80 Units (4 Units Staked, - 45% Yield)
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