The Quarter Final lineup at the Canadian Masters will be confirmed at the end of the Sunday action and there were a couple of upsets on Saturday that will have made the leading contenders a little more focused.
It looks a difficult day from which to make Picks, but there are two matches on the Men's side of the tournament in Toronto that seem to fit the bill.
Alex De Minaur - 3.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: This is the time of the season when Frances Tiafoe has tended to flourish with strong runs in his home Grand Slam the highlight.
He also reached the Final at the Cincinnati Masters in 2024, although Frances Tiafoe has not had a big impact at the Canadian Masters with some early exits in the last couple of years. It looked like being another opening Round defeat earlier in the event, although Tiafoe showed his character to rally, while following up with another victory that needed all three sets to be played.
Now he has to take on Washington Champion Alex De Minaur who has benefited from a Walkover in the Third Round.
This should mean the Australian is fresh having played through to the weekend in Washington and he has only needed to play a single match here in Toronto to take his place in the Fourth Round. It has been a really solid season for Alex De Minuar on the hard courts and he is getting closer to surpassing the career best World Ranking mark of Number 6 which was set thirteen months ago.
With nothing to defend in terms of Ranking points in Canada and Cincinnati, Alex De Minaur can play with some freedom and he continues to operate as a player that tends to beat those he is expected to beat, but perhaps still looking to find a way to get closer to the likes of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.
The World Number 8 is getting plenty out of an improving serve, and Alex De Minaur remains a very dangerous return player.
These players have not met on the Tour since October 2022 so there will be some learning to be done on the court with both Tiafoe and De Minaur stronger than they were when last facing off on an indoor court at the Paris Masters.
Frances Tiafoe is going to have to serve well to try and keep Alex De Minaur contained, but there is a big difference in the way they have gone about their return games and the successes that they have had.
He is better than the sum of his parts, but Frances Tiafoe continues to operate at very fine margins and someone playing at the level of Alex De Minaur may have too much about him. As long as the higher Ranked player continues to return as well as he has been, he can wear down Tiafoe in a tournament where the latter has not had the same type of successes as Cincinnati and New York City.
Andrey Rublev v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: One Washington Finalist can force their way through to the Quarter Final of the Canadian Masters, but it may be tougher for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to work his way past Andrey Rublev.
After playing so well in Washington and arguably deserving to win the title, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has been very good in winning two matches in Toronto. The form is hard to ignore and he is at a peak career World Ranking inside the top 20, although it feels like the Spaniard has operated at a higher level than that.
It is the third Final lost on the hard courts in 2025, but the Alejandro Davidovich Fokina numbers have not exactly leapt off the page.
The serve is sometimes a vulnerability on the hard courts, but the Spaniard is a capable returner and that does give him chances.
Andrey Rublev has fallen out of the top ten in the World Rankings and he has a 13-9 record on the hard courts in 2025, although he has been a dominant winner to keep the numbers at a decent level. He has won two good matches in Toronto, but there have been plenty of disappointing losses over the course of the season as Andrey Rublev has tried to turn his form around, at least from a consistency point of view.
His serve can be very productive on the hard courts and that is going to be important to try and keep the opponent under the cosh.
He has also broken in 20% of return games played on the hard courts this season and that makes Andrey Rublev dangerous against an opponent he had beaten five straight times before losing to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won their last match on the clay courts of Barcelona earlier this season.
They have been competitive matches between the players, but the Rublev serve could be key with a few more cheaper points that can be earned. This can make the difference in what should be another close match and Andrey Rublev can come through as the narrow underdog in this Fourth Round encounter.
MY PICKS: Alex De Minaur - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Andrey Rublev @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 9-4, + 3.34 Units (13 Units Staked, + 25.69% Yield)
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