Six Picks, Six Winners.
There is still a lot of work to get through between now and the end of the tournament- we are in Day 3 of 15- but it is a positive start and hopefully one that can be built upon through the remainder of the First Round action.
The biggest story of Day 2 may have been the new haircut that Carlos Alcaraz unveiled, but the World Number 2 will be most pleased with his opening performance. The 2024 US Open was a real disappointment as far as Alcaraz was concerned, but he won the title in Cincinnati and has reached the last two Grand Slam Finals and will be expecting to be involved in the final few days in New York City in 2025.
Upsets have not really been as rife as has been the case in previous years at the final Grand Slam of the season, but we are only just concluding the First Round and there is still a lot of tennis to be played between now and the second week at the tournament.
Gael Monfils v Roman Safiullin: There may not be too many US Open appearances left in the body, but Gael Monfils will arrive in New York City looking to make a positive impact at the 2025 tournament. He is close to dropping out of the top 50 in the World Rankings and the Frenchman is a week out from turning 39 years old, which will have to make people question what kind of motivation is left.
He may have missed some of the Grand Slam tournaments in recent times, but Gael Monfils will be proud of the fact that he has not lost in the opening Round since the 2021 Australian Open. This year he reached the Fourth Round in Melbourne before Second Round losses in both Slams hosted in Paris and London, while Gael Monfils is a three time Quarter Finalist and one time Semi Finalist in New York City.
On only two occasions has Gael Monfils been beaten in the First Round here and one of those was his first ever main draw appearance at the US Open.
However, the form in the build up to the tournament has been far from impressive and Gael Monfils has lost to two players that he would expect to beat on the hard courts. The latter of those defeats was in a competitive showing, but ultimately he was beaten and confidence to have a deep run at the US Open may simply not be there.
In saying that, Gael Monfils has to feel he can get the better of Roman Safiullin, a player who is clinging onto a top 100 Ranking.
The younger man has not exactly been piling up the wins in the US hard court tournaments leading up to the final Grand Slam of the season and he is just 8-11 on the surface in 2025. The real concern for Roman Safiullin is that he has lost eight of nine matches on the hard courts this season when facing an opponent Ranked higher than himself and that includes on all three occasions he has been in that position over the last few weeks.
Roman Safiullin did push Holger Rune in a defeat and that is respectable form, but losing pretty comfortably in matches against Casper Ruud and Christopher O'Connell are perhaps a better indication of where he is at.
He can serve well and that may be a factor in the match, but Gael Monfils could outlast Roman Safiullin in what is expected to be a decent atmosphere with fans getting behind the veteran. That may be enough to push him through and Monfils could be worth backing in this pick 'em First Round match with the experience seeing the Frenchman win some of the big points to secure the victory.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 sets v Alexandre Muller: Changes have been made on and off the court as Stefanos Tsitsipas looks to reverse a slide that has him trending to drop out of the top 32 in the World Rankings. That will also mean being Unseeded at Grand Slam events and could soon see Stefanos Tsitsipas struggle to recover to the kind of level that he expects from himself.
In all honesty, it has been a difficult twelve months for the 27 year old and Stefanos Tsitsipas has struggled for any kind of consistency on any surface.
The service numbers have been pretty steady on the hard courts, but there is always pressure on Stefanos Tsitsipas due to a limited return game. In previous years that has perhaps not been developed as it should have been with Tsitsipas perhaps coasting on successes that he has had, but it is coming back to haunt him now and makes it feel that every win has to be something of a grind.
His return numbers on the hard courts have dipped slightly in 2025 compared with 2024 and that has meant putting together a 12-9 record. Early losses in Toronto, Cincinnati and Winston Salem has just added to the frustration and Stefanos Tsitsipas is not expected to be a player that is going to have a huge impact at this Grand Slam.
However, it would be a significant upset if Alexandre Muller is able to get the better of Stefanos Tsitsipas in the First Round.
Alexandre Muller is playing at a peak World Ranking, but he is just 3-4 on the hard courts in the build up to the tournament and he has a serve that can be vulnerable. The World Number 38 is not exactly the strongest of return players himself and so this is a match up that should be pretty comfortable for Stefanos Tsitsipas, even if the latter is not playing near to the level he has reached previously.
These two players have met twice over the last ten months and both have been won by Stefanos Tsitsipas without dropping a set.
In those two matches, Tsitsipas has held 90% of his service games compared with a 67% mark for Alexandre Muller and you have to believe the Greek star can do enough to work his way past this opponent. Recent results are incredibly disappointing, which tempers some of the enthusiasm around the selection, but Stefanos Tsitsipas was competitive enough in a couple of his defeats to believe he can find a way to get through this match in three or four sets.
Naomi Osaka - 5.5 games v Greet Minnen: It made a lot of sense to withdraw from the Cincinnati Masters having reached the Final in Montreal and Naomi Osaka has done enough to be Seeded at the US Open. The former two time Champion in New York City can work her way into the tournament with a Seeding and she is a significant favourite in this First Round match.
There was a lot to like about Naomi Osaka's performances in Montreal, although the body language in the Final once things begun to turn away from her remains a concern.
You have to worry that there is a chance that she will lose heart or focus at key moments in the match and that could see Naomi Osaka in a bit of trouble, but that may be something to watch out for later in the tournament.
Greet Minnen lost both matches in preparation for the US Open and the 28 year old has had a number of early losses on the hard courts in 2025. She has lost all three matches played against top 50 Ranked opponents on the surface and Greet Minnen has not been very competitive in those defeats.
The numbers have been pretty disappointing and it could be tough to deal with Naomi Osaka if the former World Number 1 is close to the form she was showing in Montreal.
Last year, Naomi Osaka crushed Greet Minnen on the clay courts in Madrid, which are some of the faster red dirt tournaments on the calendar. She should be all the happier facing this opponent on the hard courts and Naomi Osaka can find the breaks of serve needed to cover the handicap mark.
MY PICKS: Gael Monfils to Win @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
US Open Update: 6-0, + 8.82 Units (12 Units Staked, + 73.50% Yield)
Should have won with Osaka , that was disappointing
ReplyDeleteAgreed, had those chances at 6-3, 2-0 and convert one of those, Osaka likely wins with that extra margin needed
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