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Wednesday, 27 August 2025

US Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2025 (Wednesday 27th August)

Let's just say it was long odds against for every selection to be returned as a winner from the US Open tournament and so the perfect run had to end sooner rather than later.

However, it could be said that the two to fall by the wayside have both been a touch unfortunate.

Gael Monfils looked to have the momentum going into the final set against Roman Safiullin, but the veteran lost a tight decider 6-4.

And the Naomi Osaka match would certainly have seen her cover if she had taken one of the host of game points she had when leading 2-0 in the second set- at that moment, Osaka had all of the momentum having won the last four games of the first set and it would have been a long road back for Greet Minnen.

Ultimately it was not to be and Naomi Osaska missed the cover by a single game.

Fortunately Stefanos Tsitsipas did help complete a very solid First Round at the US Open and it looks like Day 4 is going to be the 'busiest' in terms of selections made.

With most of the top names still in action, there is plenty of star power wherever you look around the courts, and hopefully more winners to find for the Tennis Picks on these pages.


Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v Zachary Svajda: The final scoreline did not paint a full picture for fans of Novak Djokovic and there will have been some concern with the way he was moving during the second set. The former World Number 1 admitted that he had some physical issues during that period of the First Round win over Learner Tien and it is felt that the lack of tennis between Wimbledon and the US Open has perhaps been a factor.

Having that win on the board and the stronger level produced in the third set will be cause for optimism and Novak Djokovic can work his way into the tournament.

Being one of the higher Seeds means avoiding the really big challengers until having at least two or three matches under the feet and Novak Djokovic is a considerable favourite in this Second Round contest.

Credit should always be given to any player that has won three Qualifying matches to earn a spot in the main draw at a Grand Slam and Zachary Svajda also earned a straight sets win in the First Round. This is going to offer him a real boost in the World Rankings, but the 22 year old American is going to need Novak Djokovic to have a considerable 'off' day if he is going to spring the upset.

The fans are certainly going to get behind the home player, while Zachary Svajda should take confidence from the fact he took a set from Jiri Lehecka in Washington and then won a title on the hard courts at Challenger level in Lexington.

He has played well enough on a familiar surface, but Zachary Svajda is going to have to serve a lot more efficiently than usual if he is going to put Novak Djokovic under any kind of pressure. Going up against arguably the best return player of all time will put the young American's serve under the microscope and the second serve in particular feels like it could be a vulnerability.

There is no doubt that Novak Djokovic is going to feel he has to show improvement if he is going to win a twenty-fifth Major here in New York City, but he did have a lot of success against the Learner Tien serve and he can back that up here. Serving with more authority should also be on Djokovic's mind, and he has had two days to prepare for this Second Round match, which should also be important to the Serb.

Much like his compatriot, Zachary Svajda may push Novak Djokovic for a set, but it could be tough to stick with a player who is very aware of conserving some early energy by making sure he does not need four or five sets to progress. A vulnerable serve is expected to be attacked with aggression by Novak Djokovic and he may create enough Break Point chances to eventually win this match and cover the handicap mark that has been set.


Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 games v Mattia Bellucci: The new buzzcut sported by Carlos Alcaraz was talk of the New York City crowd on Day 2 of the US Open, but the Spaniard made sure his tennis did plenty of talking too.

Beating Reilly Opelka may not have been unsurprising, but the performance was very good from the Cincinnati Champion and Carlos Alcaraz is looking for a much better run here than last year.

He faces a different kind of challenge in the Second Round compared with the monster serving that Reilly Opelka will bring to the court and this may actually be a more comfortable match up for Carlos Alcaraz.

Mattia Bellucci is the World Number 65 and the lefty has won a title on the hard courts this summer, albeit at the Challenger level. The Italian reached a career best World Ranking mark last month and an upset on Wednesday will see him move past that, although Mattia Bellucci is going to have to find another level if he is going to beat the World Number 2.

He did not make the main draw at the Australian Open earlier this year and early losses at Masters tournaments, including in Toronto and Cincinnati, makes it tough to believe Mattia Bellucci is going to be capable of pushing Carlos Alcaraz too hard. Mattia Bellucci is just 3-6 in hard court matches against top 100 Ranked opponents, while the service numbers have dipped worryingly in those matches.

Winning less than 58% of points played behind serve is not going to do Mattia Bellucci many favours against someone like Carlos Alcaraz, and especially not when you consider how much the Italian has struggled on the returning side of his tennis against the very best on the Tour.

Carlos Alcaraz can sometimes be guilty of losing focus in early Rounds, even at Grand Slam level, and he drops more sets at this stage of a Major than you would imagine. Even in the win over Opelka, there were times when sloppiness crept into the Alcaraz game as he tried to keep the crowd engaged and that makes covering lines like this a bit more challenging than it should be.

However, it is hard to believe Mattia Bellucci can push Carlos Alcaraz for long enough to prevent the World Number 2 from putting a run of games together. One competitive set would not be a massive surprise, but Alcaraz is capable of blitzing through another and that may be enough to set him up for a cover of this line.


Jessica Pegula - 5.5 games v Anna Blinkova: At 31 years old, some may feel that Jessica Pegula's hopes of winning a Grand Slam title may be fading.

The US Open may represent her best chance of doing that having reached the Final twelve months ago before losing narrowly to Aryna Sabalenka, although it has been a poor Grand Slam year for the American. She has only reached the Fourth Round at the French Open, but Pegula suffered early upsets in Melbourne and London and so there is some pressure on her.

She may be the World Number 4 and so Seeded to reach the Semi Final, but Jessica Pegula has made one Quarter Final in her last seven Grand Slam tournaments. Confidence will come from the fact that she reached that Round, and beyond, here at the US Open last year, but it has not been the best summer for Jessica Pegula.

Her opening match was pretty impressive, but another level will be needed when facing Anna Blinkova who is the World Number 80 who upset Elena Rybakina at the Australian Open in 2024.

However, Anna Blinkova has struggled to reach that level consistently since then and she has lost four of the five hard court matches played since Wimbledon in the lead up to the US Open. Like her opponent in the Second Round, Anna Blinkova was a strong First Round winner, but will also be well aware that she needs to be considerably better if she is going to extend her stay at the tournament.

In 2025, Anna Blinkova has really struggled when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and her service numbers have taken a serious hit in those matches.

One of those defeats was against Jessica Pegula in Austin back in February and Anna Blinkova was only able to win four games.

She may do a little better in this Second Round match at the US Open, although Jessica Pegula has won three of their previous four hard court matches. Two of those wins have been in pretty dominant fashion and the feeling is that this is a match that will be played on the Pegula racquet.

As long as she can serve as well as she can on the hard courts, Jessica Pegula should be able to have enough successes on the return of serve to ensure not only a win, but a cover of this wide line set.


Belinda Bencic - 3.5 games v Ann Li: It feels like Ann Li has been around a lot longer than her 26 years of age would suggest and the American has yet to crack the top 40 in the World Rankings.

The run to the Final in Cleveland in the final week ahead of the US Open will have given the American some confidence and she has maintained some momentum by winning in the First Round.

This is on the back of losing early in Montreal and Cincinnati, but Li has shown she is a capable performer on the hard courts having reached the Final in Singapore as well as in Cleveland. However, it has been challenging for Ann Li to face top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts, while she had lost in the First Round three times and been beaten in the Qualifiers in her last four appearances at the US Open before beating Rebecca Sramkova this year.

Ann Li has struggled to make an impact at Grand Slam level in any of the four Majors and now has to face Belinda Bencic who reached the Wimbledon Semi Final.

Two early defeats in the build up to the US Open will have just slowed the momentum that Bencic had earned last month in London, but she was a comfortable First Round winner and the Swiss player has enjoyed playing in New York City.

Before the run in Wimbledon, Belinda Bencic had only reached the Quarter Final at the US Open having done that twice and also been a Semi Finalist previously. Some may not enjoy the conditions at the US Open, but that is not the case for Bencic and she can find a way to get the better of the lower Ranked player.

Recent results have not been the best, but over the course of the season Belinda Bencic has shown her competence on a hard court and the level is one that Ann Li may struggle to match.

The latter is someone who can push even the best players, but Belinda Bencic may find the edges at key moments and that can see her through with a win and a cover of the handicap mark set.


Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 games v Anastasia Potapova: You don't want to read too much into Mirra Andreeva's win over Alycia Parks considering how poorly the latter dealt with the occasion, but the teenager can continue her march through the US Open draw.

Even the Andreeva team are going to be expecting a lot more resistance from Anastasia Potapova, although the World Number 53 will have to find a better level if she is going to earn the upset.

Prior to the First Round win, Anastasia Potapova had lost six of seven hard court matches going back to April and she is an inconsistent player on the surface. The 1-3 record against top 20 Ranked opponents has to be a concern for Potapova, while her returning numbers in those matches has put a lot of pressure on the serve.

A player like Mirra Andreeva is the kind of return player that can add to that pressure, especially as she has a serve that is improving all of the time and she can get the better of her compatriot in this Second Round match.

Winning titles in Dubai and Indian Wells is a big reminder of the talent that Mirra Andreeva has, although she did lose her only match played on the surface between Wimbledon and the US Open. Back to back appearances at the US Open have ended in the Second Round, which will be on the mind of the younger player, but the World Number 5 has to believe she can get the better of the opponent in front of her.

In matches played against players Ranked outside of the top 20 on the hard courts in 2025, Mirra Andreeva has won sixteen out of eighteen.

At 18 years old you cannot be surprised that Mirra Andreeva can perhaps go wandering mentally within a match, but she has very strong numbers against players she is expected to beat and can get on top of Anastasia Potapova here.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 Games @ 1.61 William Hill (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brandon Nakashima - 1.5 Sets @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Adrian Mannarino - 1.5 Sets @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

US Open Update: 7-2, + 7.82 Units (17 Units Staked, + 46% Yield)

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