I've been on the right side of some of the fortune through the first four days of the tournament, but Day 5 proved to be very frusrtrating.
Make no mistake, the totals are in a good position through the opening two Rounds of the US Open, and most would have signed up to be in this position going into the middle weekend at this Grand Slam.
However, that does not mean you cannot be frustrated by some of the manner that Picks went down on Thursday.
Easily the most irritating was Alexander Zverev's failure to cover, despite moving into a 6-4, 6-4, 5-1 lead in his match.
At that point Jacob Fearnley decided he would just hit and hope and managed to save multiple Match Points across two service games, while breaking in the most ridiculous of manners in between and he scrambled across the line by one game.
Karen Khachanov and Tommy Paul both won the opening two sets and were in a position to cover, but it was the first signs of what can happen at the US Open when they were both were pulled into a fifth set and the former was beaten outright.
Momentum shifting at a crucial time also happened in the Stefanos Tsitsipas loss- he dropped the first set, but then took two in a row and secured an opening game break in the fourth set, but also lost all focus.
Let's be honest, on another day all five selections would have been returning as winners, and so to see four drop is highly irritating.
One positive is that the read on those matches was largely right and it took something a little unexpected for the momentum to turn within those contests.
As mentioned, it has still been a very positive start to the tournament and that has to be remembered.
You always need a bit of luck and hopefully Day 5 proves to be the low point of the fortnight.
Ben Shelton - 5.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: After some of the performances on the North American hard courts this summer and having a temperament that is extremely well suited to the biggest events, Ben Shelton is going to be a very tough player to beat at the US Open. He won the Canadian Masters and Ben Shelton has impressed through the first two Rounds of the tournament and he has to be considered a pretty healthy favourite to get past veteran Adrian Mannarino.
The respectful conduct during the win over Pablo Carreno Busta is going to serve Ben Shelton well in this Third Round match.
All credit has to be given the World Number 6 for the attitude- he was a pretty comfortable winner against the veteran, but made sure he paid full respect to a former two time US Open Semi Finalist. That attitude helps make sure a player is not taking anything for granted and Shelton will need to do the same against Adrian Mannarino who has found some solid form over the last month.
Comfortable progress has been made at the US Open and Adrian Mannarino gave Jannik Sinner something to think about in a competitive defeat in Cincinnati. There had been little sign of this kind of success prior to the North American hard court swing and Mannarino will feel he has nothing to lose.
The Frenchman also holds a win over Ben Shelton at the Australian Open in 2024 in a five setter and so care will have to be taken by the home favourite.
Ben Shelton has looked very comfortable on this surface all season thanks to a booming serve, but he will also believe that he can get more joy out of the return after recent results.
One of those was a dominant win over Adrian Mannarino in Toronto on his way to the title when Ben Shelton created 8 Break Points and managed to convert three of them.
This is a potentially awkward line if Adrian Mannarino is playing at his best, but Ben Shelton is going to dictate the tempo of the match. With the New York City crowd firmly behind him, Shelton should be able to come through this match in three or four sets and that should be good enough to put him in a position to cover this handicap line too.
Carlos Alcaraz - 8.5 games v Luciano Darderi: In terms of the World Rankings, this is the toughest kind of match that Carlos Alcaraz could face in the Third Round against an Unseeded player in the draw.
However, Luciano Darderi is up to World Number 34 in the World Rankings thanks to some really strong results on the clay courts.
It has been much tougher for the Italian when playing on the hard courts- he had lost seven of nine matches played on the surface in 2025, although there will be some confidence coming from the fact he has won twice in the US Open main draw.
The problem for Luciano Darderi is that he has not faced much competition with both wins being against players Ranked outside the top 100 and this is a significantly tougher test as compatriot Mattia Bellucci found out in the Second Round.
Carlos Alcaraz was also a pretty strong winner in the First Round after putting Reilly Opelka to the sword in straight sets.
The World Number 2 will have seen the form that Jannik Sinner has been displaying early in the US Open tournament and Carlos Alcaraz will want to make a statement of his own.
He should pretty comfortable in the match up against an opponent who has struggled to find his rhythm on the return of serve on the hard courts, but who has also only been winning 60% of points behind serve. That has given opponents the chance to put Luciano Darderi under pressure and it has led to some pretty comprehensive defeats on the hard courts over the course of the year.
Luciano Darderi's numbers on the hard courts when facing top 100 Ranked opponents are really concerning and he could be the latest Italian that falls by the wayside without putting in much of a dent in the Carlos Alcaraz push towards the Final.
The line is bigger than the Third Round and that will partly be down to the very impressive win that Carlos Alcaraz produced against Mattia Bellucci.
It doesn't take much for things to go wrong for a favourite with a line like this one, but Carlos Alcaraz is trying to turn the talk from his new hairstyle to the tennis being produced and another impressive performance is expected from the Number 2 Seed in New York City.
Frances Tiafoe - 1.5 sets v Jan-Lennard Struff: Early losses in Toronto and Cancun pushed Jan-Lennard Struff's losing run to eight matches on the hard courts and the World Number 144 entered the US Open with very little expectation.
He dropped one set in winning three Qualifiers and Jan-Lennard Struff deserves a lot of credit for backing up those victories to secure two more in the main draw.
The Second Round upset of Holger Rune in five sets will have given the 35 year old a huge amount of confidence in what has been a tough year on this surface. He will have benefited from playing that match in an emotional atmosphere and Struff will also benefit from a day of rest after spending well over three hours on the court in that upset of Rune.
It is never easy to back up those results and Jan-Lennard Struff is going to be facing Frances Tiafoe and the home crowd in this Third Round match.
The World Number 17 has had an inconsistent twelve months, while suffering two Second Round losses at the Australian Open and Wimbledon. Frances Tiafoe has reached the Quarter Final at the French Open and he will have been excited about coming into the final Grand Slam where he has had his best career results in the Majors by some distance.
He is looking to reach the Quarter Final for the fourth year in a row in New York City and Frances Tiafoe has reached the Semi Final in 2022 and 2024.
Frances Tiafoe has only dropped a single set in two matches in the US Open and he will certainly feel there is more room for improvement as he looks to peak towards the end of the tournament.
Previous matches between the players have been very competitive and it is Jan-Lennard Struff who holds the Grand Slam win over Frances Tiafoe, which came at the French Open in 2020. When that match was played, the German was significantly higher in the World Rankings compared with Frances Tiafoe and that switch around should show up on the scoreboard in this Third Round contest.
Every set is expected to be competitive, but Frances Tiafoe can find a way to win key points and move through to yet another Fourth Round in New York City without needing a decider.
Elena Rybakina - 2.5 games v Emma Raducanu: Two former Grand Slam Champions are facing off in this big Third Round match at the US Open and the winner will have a lot of belief in finishing up this tournament with the trophy in hand.
Emma Raducanu has done that before back in 2021 when she ran through the Qualifying and main draw in New York City without dropping a set. Many of her supporters feel the level being produced in the lead up to the 2025 US Open is the best and most consistent that Emma Raducanu has produced since unexpectedly winning the title here.
However, Emma Raducanu has put together a 3-3 record when facing top 50 Ranked players in Washington, Montreal and Cincinnati, although the loss at the last of those events was a positive one all things considered. She had pushed Aryna Sabalenka all the way in that defeat, but Raducanu was well beaten by Amanda Anisimova in Montreal and she is facing another big serving, hard hitting opponent.
Elena Rybakina has reached the Semi Final in both Montreal and Cincinnati, but she has failed to produce her best tennis in those moments.
This is a very big match for Rybakina, but she has produced some solid results on the hard courts throughout this season and will feel she has the power to hit through Emma Raducanu.
The British player has a 1-4 record on the hard courts when facing top ten Ranked opponents this season.
She has had some competitive matches, but Emma Raducanu has lost three of those five matches pretty comfortably. This is a Grand Slam where the memories have been positive thanks to that Championship in 2021, but Raducanu had not won matches in New York City until this tournament and it feels like Elena Rybakina might just have too much firepower for the former Champion in what could be the match of the day.
MY PICKS: Ben Shelton - 5.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 8.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elena Ryabkina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
US Open Update: 13-8, + 5.24 Units (41 Units Staked, + 12.78% Yield)
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