We are down to the final couple of days at the Miami Masters.
Saturday will place the spotlight on the two WTA Finalists as Aryna Sabalenka prepares to face Jessica Pegula and the tournament is going to be rounded out by the ATP Final on Sunday.
A win for Novak Djokovic has just pushed the Miami totals back in the right direction after his convincing win over Grigor Dimitrov in the Semi Final, although his opponent in the Final will be determined later on Friday evening.
This thread will be posted before that result is official, and the focus here is on the WTA Final.
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Jessica Pegula: The WTA Final in Miami will be competed by two of the top four players in the World Rankings and so it should be a decent contest.
The World Number 1 and top Seed in Miami, Aryna Sabalenka, has looked the more confident of the two players with the way she has dismissed all challengers to reach the Final. She has not lost a set, while Sabalenka has beaten three players that are Ranked inside the top 15 in the last three Rounds and that will give her plenty of confidence as she looks to win her first big title in 2025.
Nothing can be taken for granted by Aryna Sabalenka who has lost the Australian Open Final and Indian Wells Final already this season, but the match up has been one that she has enjoyed.
Jessica Pegula will point out that she has beaten Aryna Sabalenka twice on the hard courts and she was considerably lower Ranked when upsetting the Belarusian in Cincinnati in August 2020. She also lost 7-5, 7-5 in the US Open Final in September 2024 to show she can compete with the World Number 1, but Jessica Pegula is going to have to serve well and try and put Sabalenka under some pressure.
Her run through to the Miami Final has had more challenges and Jessica Pegula has dropped three sets in her five wins, including in each of the last two Rounds. And that may be a concern when you think that only player beaten in this tournament has been Ranked inside the top 30 and so Aryna Sabalenka represents a major step upwards in terms of an opponent.
The serve has been important for Jessica Pegula, but she has to find a way to be more consistent on the return if she is going to upset the top Seed.
Aryna Sabalenka has perhaps not served as well as Jessica Pegula as far as the numbers are concerned, but she is not that far behind and especially when you factor in Ranking of opponents faced. Where the World Number 1 has looked much more effective compared with Jessica Pegula has been on the return and she can certainly put the home player under pressure if she is not hitting her marks on the serve.
In their head to head matches on the hard courts, Aryna Sabalenka has been the stronger returner and she can show that here, while covering the handicap number set for the Final.
MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Miami Update: 13-9, + 1.99 Units (22 Units Staked, + 9.05% Yield)
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