The tournament has proven to be the first of the 2025 season that will finish with a significant dip, but it was never going to be an eleven months where only ticking in a positive direction was going to be the outcome.
There is one selection from the WTA Final at Indian Wells before thoughts will turn to Miami and the opportunity to bounce back, and Picks from that Masters event will begin on Tuesday or Wednesday. The second of the hard court events played this month will round out March and then everyone will begin preparation for the French Open at the end of May with European clay court tournaments helping the players every step of the way.
Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 games v Mirra Andreeva: If you think the Australian Open Final defeat did not hurt Aryna Sabalenka after winning that title twice in a row, her Semi Final performance will have made no doubt about how much she thinks about Melbourne 2025.
That defeat came at the hands of Madison Keys, but Aryna Sabalenka crushed the American for the loss of a single game in the Semi Final and admitted afterwards how much the match meant to her.
It is only part of a run of five strong wins and Aryna Sabalenka continues to show she is the player to beat on the hard courts.
Taking up the challenge is 17 year old Mirra Andreeva who has to be given all credit for beating Iga Swiatek in the Semi Final, despite having a tough second set. Any time a player beats someone as good as Iga Swiatek, they are going to be feeling good about their tennis, but Mirra Andreeva is becoming accustomed to beating the biggest names on the Tour having done the same on her way to the Dubai title last month.
Mirra Andreeva has continued her fine serving here in Indian Wells and she is going to need all of that if she is going to beat the World Number 1.
She played the key points well behind that shot in her Semi Final win with five of six Break Points saved, but Andreeva will need to find a way to be a bit more productive on the return. In that Semi Final win over Iga Swiatek, Mirra Andreeva won 39% of return points played and she is facing a much bigger server with the title on the line in Indian Wells.
The World Number is always going to be a tough server to face, but Aryna Sabalenka is backing that up with aggressive returning and that may just give her the edge in the Indian Wells Final.
Last year Mirra Andreeva upset Aryna Sabalenka at the French Open, but it is the latter who has won both matches played in 2025 on the hard courts, including a crushing win at the Australian Open.
In those two hard court matches this season, Aryna Sabalenka's serve has been strong enough to just contain Mirra Andreeva and allowed the World Number 1 to play with attacking intent on the return. This has led to a couple of pretty straight-forward victories and the feeling is that Aryna Sabalenka can win and cover in this Final on Sunday.
MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Indian Wells Update: 5-8, - 3.93 Units (13 Units Staked, - 30.23% Yield)
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