A decent February to follow the Australian Open has just maintained some positive momentum in what is going to be a year filled with swings in momentum.
March sees the two Masters events in North America earn the focus of the Tennis Picks before the Tour officially moves onto the clay courts and the beginning of the run towards the French Open. Big events will be played in Europe leading into Paris, but the big Ranking points on offer in Indian Wells and Miami will motivate all involved in the events before the attention turns to building up towards the second Grand Slam of the 2025 season.
Matteo Berrettini v Stefanos Tsitsipas: A strong second set had given Matteo Berrettini all of the momentum when he was facing Stefanos Tsitsipas in Dubai at the end of February and it did feel that the match was on his racquet. One chance was handed out to the Greek player in the final set decider, and Matteo Berrettini was punished for that slight dip in concentration and suffered a defeat to Stefanos Tsitsipas for the fifth time in six matches.
It also meant Matteo Berrettini has lost all four of their hard court matches, while Stefanos Tsitsipas was able to take advantage of a slightly fortunate win to go on and win the title in Dubai and move back into the top ten of the World Rankings.
They play one another in the Third Round at Indian Wells and both players are going to be feeling confident after some of the tennis they have produced in 2025. Both had dropped in the World Rankings as form had dipped following injury, but both Berrettini and Tsitsipas will be expecting stronger campaigns as long as they can stay healthy.
There hasn't been much wrong in the serving numbers produced by both players and that is expected to be the case on Sunday in this Third Round match.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has to be given the slight edge in terms of the returning game, especially when it comes to the big points being played and that was the case when the pair met in Dubai. It has to be a slight concern for Matteo Berrettini, but the Italian will also believe he was a little unfortunate to end up on the losing side and it certainly feels strange to see the odds flipping for this match compared with how they were set in Dubai.
This time it is Tsitsipas set as the favourite and his confidence will be much improved with a title under his belt, but Matteo Berrettini felt the right play in Dubai and the same can be said in Indian Wells.
The fine margins landed in favour of Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Middle East, but Matteo Berrettini has to believe a similar standard of performance may be enough to see him earn the spot in the Fourth Round.
Mirra Andreeva - 3.5 games v Clara Tauson: Another rematch from Dubai takes place in the Third Round at Indian Wells, although the last time Mirra Andreeva and Clara Tauson met, there was a title on the line. Both youngsters played well to come through a tough WTA 1000 event in Dubai before Mirra Andreeva got the better of Clara Tauson in that Final and there is every reason to believe the 17 year old can frank that victory with another in California.
The layers are feeling the same and the handicap is a little wider in this Third Round match, although perhaps not wide enough to prevent Mirra Andreeva from covering.
Confidence should not be an issue for either player considering the kind of wins they earned in Dubai, although it was Mirra Andreeva who was a bit more convincing throughout that tournament. A solid win in the Second Round at Indian Wells has maintained the positive form and it has been a very good start to the season for Mirra Andreeva.
Clara Tauson has played well too and her win over Aryna Sabalenka in Dubai deserves a lot of respect.
The Dane serves well and that will always make her dangerous on the hard courts, although Clara Tauson will know that there is room for improvement on the return. That is especially the case when she has faced higher Ranked opponents on this surface in 2025 and it is the return of serve that looks to give Mirra Andreeva the edge in this contest.
When they met in Dubai, it was Clara Tauson who created more Break Points, but it was Mirra Andreeva who had more success winning points against the Tauson serve compared with the other way around.
After a competitive first set, Mirra Andreeva was able to roll through the second on that day and the feeling is that she can pull away from Clara Tauson in the game handicap market again. Clara Tauson will have learned plenty from that match, but she may yet struggle to have the same impact on the return of serve and that is where the younger player can produce another victory over a potential long-term rival.
MY PICKS: Matteo Berrettini @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Mirra Andreeva - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
2025 Season: 49-32, + 16.15 Units (119 Units Staked, + 13.57% Yield)
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