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Sunday, 23 March 2025

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2025 (Sunday 23rd March)

The Miami Masters rolls into the business end of the tournament at the end of this weekend, and every player will have had at least one match under their belt.

This should mean conditions are much more familiar to all involved and should just settle the tournament into a rhythm for the fans and the players involved.

Upsets have largely been avoided through the first two Rounds, but there was a big one when Carlos Alcaraz was beaten by David Goffin and the Spaniard can turn his attention to preparing for the French Open.

The focus for the Tennis Picks on Sunday will be on the Third Round matches played on the ATP side of the tournaments being played in Miami. The hope is that the 7-3 start to the tournament is only one that is laying the foundation for a strong tournament to bounce back from the one held in Indian Wells.


Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Jaume Munar: Any player that beats Daniil Medvedev on a hard court as comfortably as Jaume Munar did in the Second Round has to be respected, although the level shown by Munar is going to be incredibly difficult to maintain.

Like many Spanish players, Jaume Munar is a solid clay courter, but one who has enough ability to perform to a decent standard on the hard courts.

In saying that, the serve is usually still relatively vulnerable on this surface and Munar is playing well above that level in 2025. He has been a streaky performer and there is little doubt that Jaume Munar is playing with the confidence to win the big points, which has led to some tight wins.

Next up is veteran Gael Monfils who has already secured another hard court title in 2025, but who has not really had a big impact in the last two tournaments played since the Australian Open.

The Frenchman has been serving with some confidence, although he has been held back by a slight dip in the returning numbers. This is not a big surprise when you think that Monfils is now 38 years old and almost certainly coming towards the end of his career, but the hope is that he can get into enough of the return games to neutralise the rallies and eventually showcase his superior hard court ability.

Their one previous match was back in 2018 at the Australian Open and ended in favour of Gael Monfils- this one is expected to be more competitive, but the World Number 46 can do enough to win some of the key points and earn passage into the Fourth Round.


Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 games v Sebastian Korda: A Fourth Round loss at Indian Wells will have hurt, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has to be very happy with the form shown over the last month. He won the title in Dubai, which is an important trophy to pick up on the Tour and Stefanos Tsitsipas looks to be entering matches with a bit more confidence, even when things have not gone smoothly within matches.

His three set win in the Second Round in Miami will have done Stefanos Tsitsipas the world of good and he is going to be well supported in the stands, even if he is facing a home player.

Sebastian Korda made it as high as World Number 15 in August last year and it looked a matter of time before the American would crack the top ten, but he has slipped back to World Number 25 since then.

He reached the Final in Adelaide in preparing for the Australian Open, but Sebastian Korda has won just twice since then, including losing in that title match. Early losses in Melbourne, Marseille and Indian Wells has done little for the confidence, but Sebastian Korda benefited from facing an opponent Ranked outside the top 100 in the Second Round in Miami and made relatively short work of Eliot Spizzirri.

This is a significant step up in class for Sebastian Korda and he is going to have to serve well to contain the threat posed by Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Both players have struggled with their return in hard court matches, although the serving edge is with Stefanos Tsitsipas and that gives him an opportunity to force his way into the Fourth Round.

2021 was the last time Sebastian Korda and Stefanos Tsitsipas faced one another on the Tour and it resulted in a win for the latter.

The 24 year old American is improved since then, but form this season has not been that impressive so far and Tsitsipas can find a way to win and cover.


Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Camilo Ugo Carabelli: The first set was a cruise and the second set saw Novak Djokovic pushed, but finding a win was key for the former World Number 1. This is the first one put on the board since the Australian Open Quarter Final and Novak Djokovic will now be looking to kick on into the Miami Masters tournament.

He has openly admitted that peaking for Grand Slams is the main focus in the remaining years of his career, but Novak Djokovic is not going to be player happy with the losses being piled together.

This looks a good opportunity to keep the run going in Miami when facing Camilo Ugo Carabelli, the World Number 65 who effectively plays the majority of the year on the clay courts.

A First Round defeat at the Australian Open was followed with a run on the clay courts, and Camilo Ugo Carabelli had been beaten in the Qualifiers in Miami. A Lucky Loser spot was awarded to him though and Carabelli could not have taken more of an advantage with two, tough wins.

However, the level of opponent has perhaps helped, even if Camilo Ugo Carabelli had to beat a couple of American players, and this is a significant step upwards. The return game will give the clay court specialist an opportunity, but the serve is not as well protected as some can produce on the hard courts and ultimately someone like Novak Djokovic should be able to keep him under the cosh.

Confidence is perhaps not at a level it would have been when Djokovic was beating all-comers, but he showed in the Second Round that he is still playing with enough quality to beat opponents of this level without too much drama.


Brandon Nakashima - 2.5 games v David Goffin: The biggest upset in Miami so far has to be David Goffin's win over Carlos Alcaraz in the Second Round.

He had come into the tournament with little positive form, and David Goffin was beaten in the first set played 6-2... At that stage you would have had long odds on Goffin turning things around, but he did and he managed to do the same in the Second Round in the upset over Alcaraz.

The return numbers have been steady compared with 2024, but David Goffin had been struggling with his serve and that is still something that could be a potential issue for him in this Third Round match.

Brandon Nakashima has been putting a lot more wins on the board in recent weeks with a run to the Quarter Final in Delray Beach and following that up with a Semi Final run in Acapulco. His Fourth Round loss at Indian Wells may have felt a little disappointing, but the World Number 32 bounced back with an opening win in different conditions in Miami and Brandon Nakashima should be all the better for putting that victory on the board.

He has a mental edge over David Goffin having won all three pro meetings against the veteran Belgian, while Goffin is going to be bidding to back up a big upset, which is always challenging.

These two met in Acapulco last month and it was Brandon Nakashima who was just a little stronger on the serve and he played the big points that little bit better than David Goffin.

All three wins have been on the hard courts since the back end of 2022 and Brandon Nakashima has held 85% of service games played compared with David Goffin's 78% mark in the head to head. He has also won 5% more points played behind serve and, in a game of inches, that can make the difference again with the American looking to reach another Fourth Round during the Sunshine Double in March.

MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Brandon Nakashima - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Miami Update: 7-3, + 3.04 Units (10 Units Staked, + 30.40% Yield)

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