It can only be described as 'frustrating' when players miss Break Points, Set Points or Match Points at a moment when they would cover and win for the Tennis Picks, but that has been the case over the last couple of days.
On another day and with an inch here or there, the last two days could have easily produced a 4-1 record rather than a 2-3 one.
Monday saw Aryna Sabalenka dominate Danielle Collins, but she missed the Set Point to win the first set 6-3 and then had two Match Points at 15-40, 6-4, 5-3, and converting either of those would have led to a cover too.
The day prior saw Gael Monfils miss four Break Points n a single game that prevented his ability to cover as well and so there has to be some irritation to those results.
In saying that, the Miami totals are still in a positive position and there are six days remaining in South Florida as the first quarter of the season is wrapped up.
The entire ATP Fourth Round is scheduled to be played on Tuesday with two of the WTA Quarter Finals also set to go and that means it is the busiest day left at the event. Three selections have been found, which can be read below, and it would be nice to be on the right side of the tight margins to just move the tournament back in a positive direction.
Gael Monfils v Sebastian Korda: All credit has to be given to the veteran Gael Monfils for the opening to the 2025 season and his attention will soon turn to having one more big run at the French Open.
Before thoughts turn to clay court preparation, Monfils is looking to move through to the Miami Quarter Final having battled through three sets in each of the three wins recorded at the tournament. Another victory would see him moving back towards the top 32 and that would potentially mean being Seeded at Roland Garros, which would offer Gael Monfils that much of a better opportunity to have the kind of impact that the fans will be hoping to see.
He will have to beat a confident Sebastian Korda, who has won two matches in Miami in solid fashion.
The victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas will have shown Korda that he is capable of getting through sticky moments within matches and not lose the momentum to go on and win those matches. This wll help the American as he looks for a bit of revenge over Gael Monfils having lost to the veteran at Indian Wells earlier this month.
However, the feeling is that the day of rest between matches will help Gael Monfils recover from the tough Third Round win over Jaume Munar and he can frank that victory over Sebastian Korda with another on a faster surface.
He was the much more effective server in Indian Wells and Gael Monfils may feel that is going to be the case again in the Fourth Round in Miami.
Sebastan Korda has been returning well through his first two wins in Miami, but Gael Monfils still holds the edge on the serve and that may be the key to the outcome of this match.
You can never tell how accumulated fatigue will play a part, but Monfils is still looking pretty sharp and the day of rest should help as he looks to upset the odds in this Fourth Round match.
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: Two wins in Miami will have given Novak Djokovic a boost in confidence having struggled after Melbourne, although the former World Number 1 will be well aware that the level of opponent is going up considerably compared with those already beaten.
Neither opponent faced so far at the tournament have been Ranked higher than World Number 65, but in the Fourth Round Novak Djokovic is faced by Lorenzo Musetti, the current World Number 16.
The Italian's Ranking is boosted by a surprising run at Wimbledon last year on the grass courts, but Lorenzo Musetti is most respected on the clay courts like many of his compatriots. He has proven to be a solid, but unspectacular hard court player, and Lorenzo Musetti had a 4-3 record on the surface in 2025 before winning two matches here.
Both wins have been in three set affairs, which can provide a confidence boost for the Italian, although there is room for improvement and there is likely going to have to be an improvement if he is going to win this Fourth Round match against Novak Djokovic.
Overall the numbers have looked stronger than last year with Lorenzo Musetti serving and returning a little better on the surface than he did in 2024. That will be tested over the course of the year, but it may give Musetti the belief that he can get the better of Novak Djokovic for the second time in their career meetings.
Ultimately it is Djokovic who has won seven of the eight matches played and the most competitive meetings have been on the clay courts. The two previous hard court matches have ended pretty decisively in favour of Novak Djokovic and the Serb looks to be serving well enough to give himself the chances to win this match and cover the handicap mark set.
In their previous matches, Lorenzo Musetti has struggled to protect his serve against the strong returning that Novak Djokovic brings to the court.
On the clay, Musetti has been able to challenge the Novak Djokovic serve, but that has been much tougher for him on the hard courts and that is something that may hold firm in this big Fourth Round match.
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Qinwen Zheng: The final scoreline might have suggested two tough sets, but Aryna Sabalenka was a dominant winner over Danielle Collins and will be looking to continue her dominance of Qinwen Zheng in this Miami Quarter Final.
These players have met five times beginning with the 2023 US Open Quarter Final and all of those have been won by Aryna Sabalenka on the hard courts.
She has dropped just a single set in that time and it is impossible to ignore the numbers.
Aryna Sabalenka has dominated behind serve when playing Qinwen Zheng, but she has also found a way to get into the return games thanks to winning 44% of points played on the Zheng serve.
The one 'positive' for Qinwen Zheng is that she produced her best serving day against Aryna Sabalenka when the two met in Riyadh at the WTA Finals at the end of 2024, although the conditions perhaps helped with the World Number 1 still coming out as a solid 6-3, 6-4 winner.
Qinwen Zheng had lost three hard court matches in a row before arriving at Indian Wells where she reached the Quarter Final and was ultimately beaten by Iga Swiatek. She has backed that up with three wins in Miami, but the highest Ranked player that has been seen off is at World Number 40 and over the last twelve months, Qinwen Zheng has yet to beat a player Ranked in the top three on a hard court.
A couple of sets have been won in that time, but the feeling is that this match is on the racquet of the World Number 1 who is desperate to win a title before moving into the clay court season.
The form shown in the three wins produced by Aryna Sabalenka makes her a strong favourite and she can find the breaks needed to cover a wide number in this Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Gael Monfils @ 2.20 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Miami Update: 9-6, + 1.59 Units (15 Units Staked, + 10.60% Yield)
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