Most of the players will have had a few days to recover from Indian Wells, but it is a dangerous Round for the top names to negotiate and that is because they are facing players that have won matches in the conditions and so should know what to expect.
This cannot always make up for the difference in talent levels, but there are some vulnerable names heading out onto the courts on Thursday and avoiding those is the challenge.
Only one selection has made through the first two days of main draw action in Miami, but better options do look available for the Thursday action. Earning an opening winner hopefully is the start of another good tournament, but there is so much tennis to get through before the direction of this event is clear as far as the Tennis Picks go anyway.
Daria Kasatkina - 3.5 games v Hailey Baptiste: There are a number of young, American WTA players fighting to make an impact on the Tour, but there will be times when things are not going quite to plan.
At 23 years old, Hailey Baptiste has time to get her career moving in the direction she would hope and the potential suggests she is stronger than the peak World Number 80 Ranking she has earned.
That was only in October 2024, but form has been tough to string together, especially on the main Tour and Hailey Baptiste has slipped to the edges of dropping out of the top 100.
A win in the First Round will be welcomed and even more so that Hailey Baptiste was able to beat a top 50 Ranked opponent having struggled when facing those players on the hard courts over the last twelve months. She has been competitive, but facing someone like Daria Kasatkina is a huge challenge compared with those players Bailey has been facing of late.
Daria Kasatkina has been something of a mixed bag so far in 2025, and she has won just one of her last four matches.
However, she is still playing a relatively decent level and Kasatkina has won five of her eight matches played against players outside of the top 50. One of those defeats was against a dangerous player in Sorana Cirstea, and the World Number 12 won the first set in the other two defeats by the same 6-1 scoreline before failing to get the job done.
It might be tougher for Hailey Baptiste to provide the same kind of resistance having been crushed by Daria Kasatkina on the hard courts near the end of the 2024 season. Her serve was attacked with real success and Daria Kasatikina can use that ability in her tennis to get the job done in this Second Round match.
Jasmine Paolini - 2.5 games v Rebecca Sramkova: Maintaining the level that took her to World Number 4 at the end of last season was always going to be a difficult challenge for Jasmine Paolini, who is extracting everything out of her tennis.
Over the next few months, the Italian has some significant points to protect and is almost certainly going to suffer a drop down the World Rankings.
It makes tournament like this one feel important having been beaten in the Third Round in Miami twelve months ago and also offers Paolini an opportunity to build up some form and momentum before the clay court tournaments begin.
She is expected to have too much for Rebecca Sramkova, the World Number 37 who has lost more matches than she has won on the hard courts in 2025.
Rebecca Sramkova has not been able to return as effectively as Jasmine Paolini, and that is likely going to make a difference in this match. Respect has to be given to the Slovakian for the fact that she has not been overwhelmed when facing the very best players on the Tour and her win over Mirra Andreeva in Doha last month has been franked very nicely by the performances of the teenager since then.
However, over the last twelve months, Rebecca Sramkova has suffered some pretty comfortable defeats to those players inside the top 20 when facing them on the hard courts. One of those was to Jasmine Paolini at the BJK Cup in November and the Italian has won the last three matches between the players having lost the first four against Rebecca Sramkova.
The change in fortunes in the head to head have come at the same time Jasmine Paolini has moved past Rebecca Sramkova in the World Rankings and she can maintain her recent dominance over this opponent.
Joao Fonseca - 3.5 games v Learner Tien: There is so much excitement around Joao Fonseca and winning a Challenger title on the hard courts in the lead up to the Miami Masters will only have given the youngster more confidence.
He was beaten by Jack Draper in the Second Round at Indian Wells, but that does not look a bad result considering the British player went on to win the title.
Joao Fonseca is performing at a high level and he should have the qualities to get past Learner Tien, another teenager who has produced some very good tennis on the Tour in 2025.
The run at the Australian Open really brought Learnier Tien to the fore, and he has reached the Quarter Final in Acapulco at an ATP 500 level event. Losing in the First Round at Indian Wells will have been a disappointment for the World Number 66 and this does look a tough draw for Learnier Tien.
These two players met at the Next Gen Finals at the end of 2024 and it was Joao Fonseca who came through both matches.
The format is a bit different with the sets played as the first to four games, but what can be taken from the two matches is how much stronger Joao Fonseca's serve was compared with Learner Tien's.
So far in 2025, it is Fonseca who is serving with more authority on the hard courts compared with his opponent and the Brazilian can use that to move into a position to progress to the Second Round with a strong win over Learner Tien.
MY PICKS: Daria Kasatkina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Jasmine Paolini - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Joao Fonseca - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Miami Update: 1-0, + 0.75 Units (1 Unit Staked, + 75% Yield)
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