Featured post

NFL Playoff Picks- Wild Card Weekend 2025 (Saturday 11th January-Monday 13th January)

The last week of the NFL season can be very tough to read with players and Coaches looking ahead to either the post-season or the off-season...

Tuesday, 31 December 2024

College Football Picks- Playoff Quarter Final 2024 (Tuesday 31st December-Wednesday 1st January)

The new College Football Playoff does bring some uncertainty to the table as we move onto the Quarter Final Round.

For starters, teams are not that accustomed to having to play multiple games over the festive month and that is the case for the four First Round Winners.

Of course, we don't really know how teams that have been given a Bye through to the Quarter Final will fare having spent over three weeks on the sidelines preparing rather than competing.

You can look at the previous years in the NFL when those teams that received a Bye through to the Divisional Round would struggle against teams that are in a much more competitive mindset. This is a potential factor going against the top Seeds in the Quarter Final Round, although it also has to be noted that three of those that have come through the First Round have been set as favourites against higher Seeded opponents.

The four Quarter Final games are going to be played across two days, New Year's Eve and New Year's Day, and the Picks can be read below.


Boise State Broncos vs Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: The new First Round of the College Football Playoff was disappointing in terms of drama, and the hope is that the Quarter Final games in the new format will be much more competitive.

This is going to be the first time that a team will be facing an opponent that has had a Bye since the Championship Week of the regular season and in the years ahead we may have more of an indication as to how that will affect performances.

The Penn State Nittany Lions (12-2) crushed the SMU Mustangs at home and they will next face the Boise State Broncos (12-1) in Arizona. Both of these teams may feel they are on the 'weaker' side of the Bracket, especially with the injuries suffered by the Georgia Bulldogs, but focusing on the future and ignoring the present would be a mistake.

All eyes will be on Ashton Jeanty, the Boise State Running Back who was a leading contender to win the Heisman before coming up short in the voting to a deserving Travis Hunter. He will be playing behind the Broncos Offensive Line which has been very effective at setting up the run all season and Jeanty is going to feel he can earn the 132 yards needed on the ground to smash Barry Sanders single season record in the NCAA.

The battle at the Line of Scrimmage is expected to be key to the outcome of this game and the Nittany Lions Defensive Line have played the run very well all season. They will believe they can at least contain Ashton Jeanty to some extent and try and force the Boise State Broncos to have to get the ball out of the hands of their best player and make Maddux Madsen beat them from the Quarter Back position.

Maddux Madsen has benefited from having a superstar at Running Back, but he has been efficient and it has been possible to attack this Penn State Secondary. Being in front of the chains is important, but Madsen is also well protected by the Boise State Offensive Line when he has had to drop back to throw the ball and the Quarter Back has been careful enough with his decision making.

This is important with the Nittany Lions capable of stepping in front of the passing lanes, while Boise State have not had a high level of competition this season as the non-Power 4 representative in the Playoff. However, they did push Big Ten Champions Oregon Ducks all the way very early in the season and that will give the Broncos confidence as they chase the upset.

We know it will be a test for the Broncos at the Line of Scrimmage when they have the ball, but the Boise State Defensive Line is also going to have to try and stop this Penn State run game.

It feels like a big challenge for the Broncos who ended the regular season struggling at the Line of Scrimmage and they now have to face a Nittany Lions Offensive Line that have helped the team power the run game. Everything could come down to this battle in this Quarter Final and Penn State moving the ball on the ground with some big runs will just negate the Broncos pass rush and also allow Drew Allar plenty of time from the Quarter Back position.

There is plenty of pressure on Allar who has been facing a lot of criticism and the same goes for Head Coach James Franklin who has come up short in big spots. The first two Playoff games could not have been much more welcoming for Penn State and their Head Coach-Quarter Back combination and Drew Allar may feel more comfortable without having to be the one to win this with his arm.

Avoiding turnovers is going to be key on both sides of the ball, but the edge has to be with the Penn State Nittany Lions after their dominant win over SMU in the First Round. This is a game being played on a neutral ground, but the Nittany Lions look to have the edge when it comes to establishing the run with any kind of consistency and the Nittany Lions may make enough plays late on to secure a cover of what is a big spread.


Arizona State Sun Devils vs Texas Longhorns Pick: After being tipped up to finish in the basement of the Big 12 in their first season in the Conference following a move away from the Pac-12, the Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) have stunned the naysayers.

Instead of planning for the 2025 season while others enjoyed the Bowl Season, the Sun Devils crushed the Iowa State Cyclones in the Big 12 Championship Game to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff. Not just earn a spot, but earn a Bye through to the Quarter Final in Atlanta where the Sun Devils will be in a familiar underdog spot.

There they will be facing the Texas Longhorns (12-2) who left the Big 12 to become a member of the SEC and who were beaten in the Championship Game in this Stadium in early December. The defeat did not prevent Texas from earning a spot in the Playoff, but they had to crush the Clemson Tigers, the ACC Champion, in the First Round to earn their spot in this Quarter Final.

The Longhorns were significant favourites to beat Clemson and did exactly what was expected of them and Texas will be heading into this Quarter Final as the strongest favourite of the Round.

A huge challenge awaits Arizona State even if the team has the momentum of having won six games in a row.

They will not have faced too many Defensive units of the power of the Texas Longhorns and this balanced Sun Devils Offense is going to need to have planned to produce their absolute best in this game. Everything begins with Cam Skattebo and the run game and the Sun Devils Defensive Line have been very strong up front all season, although we have to keep coming back to the fact that they will not have tried establishing the run against a Defensive Line like the one the Longhorns trot out onto the field.

It may mean more pressure on Sam Leavitt at Quarter Back who has exploited the fact that he has a star Running Back playing behind him. All credit has to be given to Leavitt for putting up the numbers he has and this Longhorns team can be attacked through the air, but that becomes much tougher when you think the Sun Devils are without their top Receiver Jordyn Tyson.

Facing a SEC Defensive unit after a season playing in the Big 12 is a big gap to bridge and Arizona State would have needed every top player to be available.

The pressure will be on the Sun Devils Defense to try and keep the team in the game, but they are also going to be playing a unit that they have not met every week. The Longhorns showed their power at the Offensive Line in crushing the Clemson Tigers, although the Arizona State Defensive Line will certainly feel they are playing at a decent level and can at least force Quinn Ewers to have to make some big throws.

Texas fans have perhaps been a little critical of Quinn Ewers with Archie Manning sitting behind him, but this should be a game in which the Quarter Back is given time to make his plays down the field. Interceptions have been a concern, and probably dropped Ewers stock a little bit, but he did enough to keep Texas moving in the First Round win over Clemson and that might be all the Longhorns need in this one too.

With the likelihood of the SEC team winning the turnover battle overall, Texas may just exert their strength and quality on the contest and they may just be able to make a few big Defensive plays in the Fourth Quarter to match the kind of margin produced in the win over the Clemson Tigers.


Oregon Ducks vs Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: The expectation was that these two Big Ten teams would have their rematch in the Conference Championship Game, but an upset on the final week of the regular season prevented that happening.

If the College Football Playoff had been re-Seeded after the First Round games, a real argument could be made to have the Oregon Ducks (13-0) and Ohio State Buckeyes (11-2) as 1 and 2, rather than 1 and 8 as they are heading into the Quarter Final.

Much of the blame lies with the Buckeyes losing to the struggling Michigan Wolverines in the final week of the regular season, which meant missing out on the Conference Championship Game. That meant missing out on a top five Seed and the chance to avenge the one point loss to the Oregon Ducks in the regular season.

Earning redemption in the College Football Playoff Quarter Final would be even sweeter than winning the Big Ten Championship, but there is plenty of pressure on Head Coach Ryan Day. The blowout win over the Tennessee Volunteers in the First Round just served as a reminder of why the Buckeyes have been considered a National Championship contender with the talent on the roster, but that loss to the Wolverines has really stuck in the throat and they have to prove themselves on the field.

The Rose Bowl is the venue for this huge game and it should produce a quality atmosphere with the winning team likely going into the College Football Playoff Semi Final as the big favourite to win it all in January 2025.

Both teams are going to be confident that they have the Offensive playmakers to win this game, but the Buckeyes and Ducks have plenty of confidence in the Defenders that will be on the field.

Establishing the run will be important for Ohio State who will have just seen the Oregon Defensive Line struggling to produce their best down the stretch. Having almost a month off between games is not ideal for the Ducks, even if the players will be rested, and the Defensive Line has to just show out a little better and try and put Quarter Back Will Howard behind the chains to try and stall drives.

Will Howard has over 3000 passing yards with 29 Touchdown passes and 9 Interceptions, while the Buckeyes Offensive Line have given him plenty of protection in the pocket. That Line will be tested by this Oregon pass rush which has made a huge habit of rattling the opposition Quarter Back and bringing them down, which has also contributed to the strong numbers the Ducks Secondary have put together.

The Quarter Back took the blame for the loss to Oregon in the regular season having failed to understand the clock management needed when running with the ball and watching time expire. This is clearly motivating Will Howard to bring his best to the Rose Bowl for this Quarter Final and he has the kind of Receiving talent to put the Buckeyes in a strong position to win this one.

There is plenty of talent on the Ohio State Defensive unit too, but the Ducks will feel their own Offensive unit can keep things ticking over.

Dillon Gabriel has over 3500 passing yards with 28 Touchdown passes and just 6 Interceptions and being careful with the ball, while also highly aggressive with the passing plays, has helped Oregon to an unbeaten record and a Big Ten Championship in their first season in the Conference.

In the first meeting, one that was hosted by Oregon, the Ducks were able to establish the run which opened things up for their Quarter Back to find his playmakers through the air.

The Oregon Quarter Back had a few more yards compared with Will Howard in the regular season meeting and Dillon Gabriel was well protected by his Offensive Line. It just offered Dillon Gabriel the time to make good decisions with his passing and the Oregon Ducks may just have the edge in what is expected to be another shoot-out between arguably the two best teams left in the Playoff.

Losing twice to the same team in the same season is simply not something that Ohio State have been used to doing and it has been almost 130 years since that last happened.

The Buckeyes may also feel having the First Round game against the Tennessee Volunteers will mean the rhythm remains, but this could come down to a final possession with little between the two top teams in the Big Ten.

With that in mind, taking the points looks the best way to approach this one and the Oregon Ducks have to be upset with being set as the underdog, especially after putting together an unbeaten season. It may be the motivation that helps them edge the Ohio State Buckeyes again, but taking the points looks the best play in a game that could be decided by as little as the regular season game was.


Georgia Bulldogs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: Time has been afforded to the SEC Champions Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) who upset the Texas Longhorns in the Championship Game to earn the Number 2 Seed and a Bye through to the Quarter Final.

However, things have not landed perfectly for one of the pre-season favourites to win the National Championship and that is because the Bulldogs have had starting Quarter Back Carson Beck ruled out for the entire post-season.

Instead it will be Gunner Stockton who will be playing behind Center and this is a tough test for the inexperienced Quarter Back as he prepares to face Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-1).

The Fighting Irish overcame an early season upset and worked their way through a pretty comfortable schedule to earn their Playoff spot without being a member of any of the Power Conferences. In the First Round they were able to dominate the Indiana Hoosiers, but this is a big step up for Notre Dame when they travel to New Orleans for this Quarter Final.

Head Coach Marcus Freeman may be under a bit more pressure to lead Notre Dame deeper into the post-season with an inexperienced Quarter Back facing his team, but this is also a big step up compared with many opponents that the Fighting Irish have faced in the regular season. Momentum is with the Fighting Irish, but this is an opponent from the SEC and it will be a significant test for all on their side.

All of the focus will be on the Notre Dame Offensive Line who have dominated opponents up front and who will have seen Georgia's Defensive Line just have some issues up front as the season wound down. All that is good about this Fighting Irish team begins with establishing the run and they should be able to keep Riley Leonard in positive positions on the field, especially as the Quarter Back is very comfortable tucking the ball and taking off himself.

There have also been some holes in the Bulldogs Secondary as they have struggled to replace those who left at the end of last season.

Riley Leonard is a capable passer too and it should mean the Fighting Irish are able to move the ball with some success, even against this SEC Championship level of team.

Another question for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to answer is how they can stand up to this powerful SEC Offensive unit, even if the Bulldogs are using their backup Quarter Back. The Georgia Offensive Line is big and strong and they may be extra focused to push forward and establish the run to make things that much more comfortable for Gunner Stockton.

The Bulldogs will feel they can get the run established and they will also feel the time between the SEC Championship Game and this Playoff Quarter Final will have been used well enough to have Stockton feeling comfortable. The idea has to be to keep this game competitive and not put an inexperienced Quarter Back in a position where he feels he has to win the game, even if there are one or two holes in this Secondary that Stockton will be able to exploit.

Notre Dame do have a set of players that will be looking to turn the ball over, although the injury suffered by Rylie Mills does hurt the Fighting Irish pass rush. Putting Gunner Stockton in front of the chains should mean the Bulldogs Offensive Line can give him a clean pocket, although avoiding turnovers will still be a test.

Overall this is a system run by the Bulldogs that Gunner Stockton would have had plenty of time to understand and it should mean a close, competitive game.

Both teams have to play with real belief and we don't really know how the long layoff will affect the Georgia Bulldogs. In previous years in the NFL, we have seen teams lose rhythm against those who have been fighting to earn spots in the next Round of the Playoff and that might just give Notre Dame a narrow edge in this one.

They are being given the points and those could make all the difference in the last of the four Quarter Final Playoff games scheduled.

MY PICKS: Penn State Nittany Lions - 11 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks + 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Playoff First Round: 3-1, + 1.72 Units (4 Units Staked, + 43% Yield)
Week 15: 3-3, - 0.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.67% Yield)
Week 14: 6-2, + 3.50 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)
Week 13: 4-4, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 12: 3-6, - 3.23 Units (9 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
Week 11: 1-5, - 4.15 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 4.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 57.86% Yield)
Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)
Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Wednesday, 25 December 2024

NFL Week 17 Picks 2024 (Wednesday 25th December-Monday 30th December)

I hope everyone enjoys the festive period with families- the NFL Week 17 Picks will be added to this thread through to Monday with a fuller thread for the final week of the regular season.


Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: Christmas Day landing on Wednesday might have given the NFL some pause for thought about continuing with their relatively new tradition, but they have scheduled a couple of games by having four teams play one another on Saturday in Week 16 and then switch opponents for this Week 17 outing.

On Saturday, the Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) were able to hold off the Houston Texans, but it was a tougher night for the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) who were crushed by the Baltimore Ravens. So both of these teams will enter this Christmas Day contest in very different moods and with their Playoff Seeding being impacted by the outcome of the game.

In reality the Kansas City Chiefs are almost there when it comes to securing the Number 1 Seed in the AFC again and earning the sole Bye in the Conference. Hosting the Playoffs gives the Chiefs a huge edge as they look to repeat in the Super Bowl again and they need either one win or one Buffalo loss in the final two weeks to secure their place.

For the Pittsburgh Steelers, back to back losses has just allowed the Baltimore Ravens to move alongside them in the race for the AFC North Divisional crown. A superior Conference record is giving the Steelers the edge in the tie-breaker, but that could all change at the end of Christmas and it is a big, big game for the Steelers.

Russell Wilson was extremely disappointed with his personal performance in the loss to the Ravens having given up a key Fumble when it looked the Steelers were going to cross over for a Touchdown. Head Coach Mike Tomlin is not concerned about his veteran Quarter Back, who has turned back the clock a little bit this season, and he expects the experience to help Russell Wilson to bounce back.

He could be helped by the fact that Chris Jones is potentially missing for the Chiefs and that may allow Wilson a bit more time to make his plays down the field, especially if George Pickens returns at Wide Receiver from an injury of his own. The Quarter Back will be well aware that this is a very strong Kansas City Defensive unit that has perhaps been the main reason the team have picked up fourteen wins in the regular season, but there are one or two holes that the Steelers have to look to exploit.

Much could come down to the will of the Pittsburgh Offensive Line who have struggled to really help get the run going in recent games, but are facing a Kansas City team that can be vulnerable on the ground. Keeping Russell Wilson in front of the chains opens things up to try and attack an underrated Secondary, while also making sure he has a bit more time in the pocket to make his reads too.

Russell Wilson has to be aware of the Kansas City ability to turn the ball over through the air and so will have to perhaps tone down the moon-ball angles at times. Being at home will help this Offensive unit get back on track after tough road losses to Philadelphia and Baltimore, but the Steelers will also need to have plenty of respect for the ability of the Chiefs Defenders.

Patrick Mahomes suffered a scare for the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 15, but looked pretty comfortable in Week 16 and will be looking to pick up from where he left off. However, there will be a huge amount of respect for some of the opponents that will be standing across the Line of Scrimmage and the Steelers are still a Defensive unit that deserves plenty of plaudits.

They remain a Defensive Line that will feel can clamp down on the run, but the key to the outcome of the game will be TJ Watt and company and whether they can challenge this Kansas City Offensive Line through the pass rush. We know that the Chiefs are a team that will look to the pass more than run, even when the game-plan looks to favour the ground game, but the Offensive Line have given Patrick Mahomes all of the time he has needed.

That strength at the Line of Scrimmage may be the ultimate factor with the Steelers Secondary banged up as we head into the final two weeks of the regular season.

His own Wide Receiver weapons are getting healthier and Patrick Mahomes has to believe he can make the plays into this Secondary that puts Kansas City into a position to win and secure the Number 1 Seed.

Opposing Mike Tomlin as an underdog is never ideal, and as a home underdog it should be even more concerning.

However, the feeling is that the Steelers have just lost a touch of momentum at a bad time and Kansas City can do enough to get past this spread line set.


Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans Pick: The win over the Pittsburgh Steelers has just given the Baltimore Ravens (10-5) the momentum to push through and win the AFC North.

Ultimately they need to win their remaining two games and hope the Steelers lose once, which is entirely possible considering the schedules left.

Players will likely have one eye on the early kickoff on Christmas Day, but the Ravens will also be asked to focus and not worry about the Half Time Show featuring Beyonce either.

Three wins in four has just pushed some momentum behind Baltimore and this is a team that feels they have been built for a deep Playoff run. Finishing up with the Number 3 Seed in the AFC rather than one of the Wild Card spots does make that task a little easier with the guarantee of at least one home game in the post-season and there is motivation there to finish strong.

The Week 17 game on Christmas Day looks to be the most challenging one left for the Baltimore Ravens as they visit the Houston Texans (9-6) on a short week. Both teams played on Saturday, but the Texans were beaten by Kansas City and their chances of improving the Number 4 Seed they hold has drastically been reduced by that defeat.

Seeding is less of a concern than losing Tank Dell for a number of months and the Wide Receiver room has taken another big knock with Stefon Diggs already sidelined. It has made things more difficult for CJ Stroud in what has been an inconsistent sophomore season in the NFL, but earning another Divisional crown and having the chance to host another Playoff game has to be considered a success.

The matchup for the Texans looks a tough one when they have the ball in their hands.

This is a team that wants to run the ball, but that has not been easy to do against the Baltimore Defensive Line and Houston have just hit a wall of late. Joe Mixon will want to remind a former AFC North rival of his talent, but the Running Back can only be as strong as the Offensive Line allows him and his bigger threat may actually be leaking out of the backfield and acting as a safety blanket for CJ Stroud in the passing game.

The Quarter Back is going to need someone to step up next to Nico Collins without Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs and it is going to be tough for the Texans to move the ball with consistency. Earlier in the season, the Ravens Secondary had not really played at a high level, but they look to be rounding into some form now and the pass rush generated up front will really help.

It is going to be a challenge for the Texans, especially on a short week, but they have signed Diontae Johnson who was recently released by the Ravens. This could be an 'x factor', but Baltimore are unlikely to be overly concerned about what Johnson can offer in this Week 17 game.

Instead the respect will be for CJ Stroud and his capabilities as a Quarter Back, but the Ravens will feel they can pressure with the Defensive unit and then use the scoreboard to create more.

A balanced Ravens Offense will feel confident in being able to do what they like on this side of the ball, even if the Texans Defensive Line have been corralling the run pretty well of late. Stopping Derrick Henry is something they have dealt with before when he was playing in the same Division, but stopping Henry AND Lamar Jackson on the ground has proven to be tough for the best Defensive Lines in the NFL and this Christmas Day game should be no different.

Everything begins with the run for the Ravens and it has opened up the passing lanes for Lamar Jackson, who should be well protected behind his Offensive Line. There are definitely areas that the Ravens can exploit in the Secondary and you have to feel the motivation edge and the balance on the Offensive side of the ball gives the road team enough advantages to cover this mark.

It is a big line when you think it is 2 points higher than Week 16 when the Chiefs hosted Houston, but the injury concerns about Patrick Mahomes contributed to the line set. Since then the Texans are even more firmly entrenched in the Number 4 Seed position in the AFC and losing Tank Dell may mean the Coaching Staff are less likely to put their best players in tough situations on the field.

With the Ravens likely controlling the clock and making some big plays at the Line of Scrimmage when Houston have the ball, the road team can win and cover in this Christmas Day game.


Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears Pick: You have to believe that the Seattle Seahawks (8-7) will still be focused in Week 17 of the NFL regular season, even if control of their Playoff destiny is no longer in their own hands.

If this game was being played on Sunday rather than Thursday Night Football, it would be one that would have to be skipped with other factors at play.

Ultimately the Seahawks know they can only make the Playoff if they beat the Los Angeles Rams in Week 18... What makes their motivation a little harder to predict in this game on Thursday is that the Seahawks absolutely need the Los Angeles Rams to lose both games left in the regular season and that makes their game against the Arizona Cardinals the only one that really matters.

Even if both the Seahawks and Rams lose this week, a Seattle win in Week 18 would see both finish with a 9-8 record and the Seahawks having the slightly stronger tie-breaker, but any Rams win in Week 17 will mean they cannot be overturned by Seattle no matter what the latter does.

With all that being said and this game being on a short week, the Seahawks should still want to give themselves momentum having lost two games in a row. Even if winning out is not enough to secure passage into the Playoff, it is important for Seattle to go into that final regular season game in a positive mindset, especially if the door has been left opened by the Rams to allow Seattle to pass them in the final standings.

It looks to be a good match up for the Seahawks against the Chicago Bears (4-11) who have lost nine in a row, including back to back blowout losses to Divisional rivals. With one more Divisional game left, the Bears are clearly going to be looking forward to the end of the season and the start of another rebuild and this looks to be a team that have just lost some heart at the end of a long regular season.

There are obviously shoots of optimism through Caleb Williams at Quarter Back, but it has become clear that the Offensive Line needs to be fixed and he still needs some support around him. The Quarter Back has been under siege far too often this season and it has not helped that the Bears have struggled to establish the run game to just ease the pressure on Williams.

It is unlukely that the Bears will get much going on the ground in this one and that is going to mean another tough day in the office for Caleb Williams. We have seen Seattle struggle a little bit in the Secondary in recent games, but those games have been against some of the best teams in the Conference and the Secondary have still stepped up at times to show the talent that Seattle have on this side of the ball.

For the main, Seattle are likely to be comfortable enough dealing with the Chicago Offensive plan, and they should be able to have their way when Geno Smith and company have the ball in their own hands.

The Quarter Back was able to suit up in Week 16 when Seattle were narrowly beaten by the Minnesota Vikings to lose control of their own destiny, but Smith played well and there should be a solid balance to the Seahawks approach. The team have powered up the run game behind this Offensive Line and should be able to keep Geno Smith in third and manageable spots, and that should just mean a comfortable night attacking this banged up Bears Secondary.

Some have suggested the Seahawks could rest key players, but the talk out of the locker room looks to indicate differently so the likes of DK Meltcalf are expected to take to the field.

This is a huge boost for Geno Smith, even as a decoy to open things up for other Receivers, and the Seattle Seahawks should find some momentum from winning this game.

All eyes will then turn to Los Angeles with the hope that Divisional rivals Arizona can upset the Rams on the road, but the focus on Thursday Night Football should see Seattle move into a position to win and cover.


Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots Pick: Elimination has been confirmed from the Playoffs as far as the New England Patriots (3-12) have been concerned for some time. However, that did not stop them giving AFC East Champions Buffalo Bills all they could handle in Week 16 and they will rematch the Bills to conclude the regular season.

It has to leave you questioning the motivation for this Week 17 game- if it was the final home game of the season, that would be something, but the Patriots finish up with a game against the Bills here and the players might not have the same amount of energy to invest in this game as they did when trying to stop Buffalo earning the Number 1 Seed in the AFC.

The Patriots can play spoiler for the Los Angeles Chargers (9-6) and force them to enter Week 18 needing to win on the road at a Divisional rival, but there may be little appetite for that from the home team.

An early Eastern Time kickoff is never ideal for a travelling West Coast team, but the Chargers beat AFC West rivals Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football in Week 16 and that additional preparation time should help. Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers Head Coach, has had plenty of success in the early Eastern kickoff slot in his previous tenure leading the San Francisco 49ers so there is little concern that Los Angeles will not be prepared well enough.

We all know that Jim Harbaugh's Football idea is to establish the run first and foremost and there have been problems for the New England Defensive Line to address. That could show up here with the Chargers expected to have success on the ground, even if both Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins are missing out.

Edwards has already been ruled out, while Dobbins is Questionable, but the Chargers should still have a bit more success on the ground considering the struggles of the Patriots.

This will be important for Justin Herbert and just allow the Quarter Back to have a bit more time to make his throws down the field, even with the Chargers being a bit inconsistent in this aspect of their game. For much of the season, the Patriots Secondary have really played pretty well and so it is key for the Chargers to ground and pound an opponent that gave plenty of themselves in the loss to the Bills.

There are problems for the Chargers to address on the Defensive side of the ball, especially with the potential Wild Card game just two weeks away. Los Angeles have struggled to stop the run too, which is a positive for New England who want to keep things as simple as possible for their rookie Quarter Back, while it will also ease the pass rush that has managed to get after Drake Maye.

Like many young, inexperienced Quarter Backs, Draye Maye has made one or two costly mistakes.

He should have some successes throwing the ball in this one, but avoiding Interceptions is key and the feeling is that the Patriots may struggle to have the same intensity as they produced in Week 16.

They are at home and that will help, but the Patriots might be a little spent in this one and that could give the rested Chargers enough of an edge to earn a win and a cover and book their place in the post-season.


Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: The likelihood of a late run into the post-season for the Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) is slim at best, but they can only give themselves an opportunity going into Week 18 by winning this game.

Ultimately the underachieving Bengals know they need to win out and earn plenty of help around the NFL, and three wins in a row has just put some momentum behind Cincinnati, even if it is perhaps too late.

One of the three Wild Card spots in the AFC has been taken by a rival from the AFC North, but the other two berths are held by two AFC West teams going into the penultimate week of the regular season. Earlier in the day the Los Angeles Chargers will be looking to wrap up their own Playoff spot, but the Bengals will keep themselves alive by beating the Denver Broncos (9-6) who were beaten by the aforementioned Chargers in Week 16.

Sean Payton has turned things around for Denver and with a rookie Quarter Back too, but there is still some work to do and this is a tough road test.

In recent games the Broncos have just struggled to really open up big running lanes, but they could get back to the ground game in this one with the Cincinnati Defensive Line continuing to have problems in containing teams.

This is so important for Quarter Back Bo Nix who will be put in a position to challenge a Bengals Secondary that have put up decent numbers during their winning run. Of course that is partly down to the poor Quarter Backs they have faced and Nix has shown he can do a bit more than the likes of Cooper Rush, Will Levis and Dorian Thompson-Robinson, especially with an Offensive mind like Payton as his Head Coach.

Denver are going to need their Offense to be operating at their efficient best, especially when facing a Bengals team that have plenty of skilful players on their side of the ball.

Tee Higgins is banged up, but Joe Burrow and company have found a way to keep the chains moving and they have put up plenty of points throughout the season to offer Cincinnati opportunities to win more games than they have. It will be on Joe Burrow's shoulders with the Broncos Defensive Line likely going to contain Chase Brown as a runner, although Brown will leak out of the backfield and likely be a very productive safety blanket for his Quarter Back.

Riley Moss is expected to be available for the Broncos, which is a huge plus for Denver's Secondary which has been exploited without him opposite Patrick Surtain II.

Even then, stopping this Cincinnati passing attack is going to be very tough and the Bengals may just have a narrow edge in this big Week 17 game.

Joe Burrow has played well considering he has been under pressure at times when he steps back to throw the ball, but the one concern has been a couple of Interceptions and Fumbles that have just held the Bengals back. He will need to play a cleaner game to ensure Cincinnati are still alive going into Week 18 in what has been a disappointing season so far and the Bengals may get the better of a potential shoot-out in this one.

You have to respect the fact that Sean Payton and his Broncos team will have a very good game-plan put together with the additional time to prepare, but the Cincinnati Bengals may just have the firepower to get the better of Denver and cover this spread set.


Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: They might have been eliminated before kicking off in Week 16, but the Dallas Cowboys (7-8) have continued to play hard for Head Coach Mike McCarthy even in a lost season.

Starting Quarter Back Dak Prescott has missed several weeks and top Wide Receiver CeeDee Lamb has been shut down for the season, but motivation will be easy to find over the next two weeks with Dallas potentially playing spoiler for Divisional rivals.

First up is the Philadelphia Eagles (12-3) who have likely lost their chance of earning the Number 1 Seed in the NFC after giving up a late Touchdown drive to the Washington Commanders last week. That also means the Division is still at play, although the permutations for the Eagles to fail to be crowned NFC East Champions needs a lot to go against them.

Instead the main concern will be to get Jalen Hurts healthy at Quarter Back having been knocked out of the loss to the Commanders with concussion and he is due to sit out in Week 17, Even if the Division is wrapped up, they will be keen to get Hurts on the field next week and not have his next snaps taking place in the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs, but for Week 17 it will be a banged up Kenny Pickett driving the Philadelphia Offensive unit.

In fairness to Pickett, he did not play badly when coming into the Week 16 game with the Commanders and there are plenty of talented players all around him.

A Running Back chasing history will likely be given a huge amount of the ball and Saquon Barkley will hope to put up the kind of numbers that forces Philadelphia to give him some snaps next week against the New York Giants. He needs over 250 rushing yards to earn the record, and Barkley will be leaned upon to run behind this impressive Philadelphia Offensive Line going up against a Cowboys team that have struggled to stop the run all season.

Easing the pressure on Kenny Pickett is clearly important, but it is also a sensible game plan against Dallas anyway and the Quarter Back could see the passing lanes open up to feed AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. The latter dropped a pass that would have likely led to an Eagles win last week, but there is a balance to this Eagles team that makes them dangerous.

Keeping a clean pocket will also be important to the Quarter Back because Dallas have been able to rush the passer effectively in recent games. They will be hoping that pressure up front can just force Kenny Pickett into mistakes that Jalen Hurts would perhaps avoid and that can give the Cowboys a chance to keep this competitive.

Cooper Rush will be operating the Dallas Offensive unit and he will have to be aware of the kind of standards that Philadelphia have been setting on the Defensive side of the ball.

The Cowboys have been playing pretty well of late thanks to the Offensive Line helping establish the run, but that looks like it will be much tougher to do in this game. Last week a lot had to go wrong for the Eagles to help the Commanders win that game, but even then they managed to turn the ball over a number of times and it all begins by clamping down on the run and forcing teams to try and beat them through the air.

Jayden Daniels was able to do that, but it will be tougher for Cooper Rush who is simply not as strong a Quarter Back and without his top target.

Philadelphia are set up really well to defend the pass, even when not being able to generate a host of pressure up front, and they could have the players capable of turning the ball over and giving their backup Quarter Back the extra possessions needed to secure a win and a cover.

Last week would have stung, but the Eagles can bounce back and show they are going to be a real Playoff threat with a big win over their NFC East rivals who have been hit too hard by injury and inconsistency this season.


Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Professional players know they are playing for their future whenever they step onto a NFL field, but there are times when management above them are making decisions that ultimately focus on the years ahead.

Fresh from scoring the Touchdown that eliminated the Arizona Cardinals from post-season play, the Carolina Panthers (4-11) have shut down Chuba Hubbard for the season. The Running Back has shown his worth to the team in 2024, but that is a decision that has not gone down very well with the fans and the Panthers might be glad to be on the road.

The travelling team will still want to show how much they have been improving and Quarter Back Bryce Young has two more games to display his talent. After a really poor rookie season and being benched in this one, Young has looked much more capable in recent weeks and the Panthers may choose to surround him with some more talent and really see what the young Quarter Back can do.

Motivation is also there to play spoiler for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7) who were beaten narrowly in Week 16 and have lost control of their own destiny.

Baker Mayfield and company need to win out and hope the Atlanta Falcons fail to win one of their remaining two games and there will be a confidence around Tampa Bay that the chips may fall their way and earn the NFC South team a home Playoff game in two weeks time.

Overlooking the Panthers would be a mistake, but Tampa Bay have to be confident they can move the ball with some consistency at home.

Teams have been able to dominate the Carolina Defensive Line in recent games and Bucky Irving may have a big game for the Buccaneers, whose own Offensive Line have been very happy to get their hands dirty in the run blocking game. The expectation is that the Buccaneers will be in third and manageable spots through much of the afternoon and this should open things up for Baker Mayfield and some of his skilled Receiving options.

Being in front of the chains just slows the pass rush pressure, while the Panthers have stronger Secondary numbers merely because teams have not needed to throw against them while the Defensive Line have struggled. This Buccaneers team have shown how good they can be Offensively during a four game winning run before losing to Dallas and Tampa Bay will believe they cover the spread through their Offensive firepower.

Scoring points is obviously important to any cover of a spread mark, but the Buccaneers do look like a team that will match up with the Panthers very well on the other side of the ball.

Even without Chuba Hubbard in the lineup, the Panthers would love to run the ball but that has been a challenge against this powerful Tampa Bay Defensive Line. With their top Running Back it would have been tough to establish the run and it feels like a game in which all of the pressure will be on Bryce Young at Quarter Back.

He can make some plays with his legs, but it will be really difficult to find any consistency Offensively if the Panthers are always behind the chains. Bryce Young will be under some duress from the Tampa Bay pass rush, while the Buccaneers Secondary have been in decent form as the regular season has wound down and this gives the home team a considerable edge.

Last week the Panthers showed they are still dangerous, but Tampa Bay are coming into this one behind a loss and will be automatically more focused in trying to keep their Playoff hopes alive. With the match up on both sides of the ball, this has the makings of a solid Tampa Bay win in the early Sunday kickoff slot and they can cover a big line with some huge play made on the Defensive side of the ball.


Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Moving into Week 17 of the NFL regular season, there are only five teams in the NFC that have won at least ten games and three of those are in the NFC North.

The Green Bay Packers (11-4) are going to the Playoffs, but there is still a chance fo them to improve their Seeding and they will certainly be keen to hold off the Washington Commanders for the Number 6 Seed at worst.

Motivation will also come from the fact that the Green Bay Packers have come up short against the best teams and they are looking to show they can compete before the Wild Card Round of the Playoffs begins with a road game at a Divisional Champion.

Where that will be is still up for debate and even the destiny of the NFC North is likely going to come down to Week 18- it is not only the Divisional crown on the line, but very likely the Number 1 Seed in the NFC and the Minnesota Vikings (13-2) are continuing to defy all expectations.

The Vikings have to win out if they are going to take the Division ahead of the Detroit Lions- they play before Detroit and there was some question about whether the Lions would rest their starters if the Vikings won simply as that second game between the top two in the NFC North would end up being a Divisional decider.

Minnesota will try and do their part and that is winning this game and sweeping the Green Bay Packers having won on the road when holding off a big rally from Green Bay.

Sam Darnold is going to be signing a big contract soon, but this is going to be a significant test for the Quarter Back with the pressure likely going to be on his arm and the two special Receivers he is throwing to. Aaron Jones would love to remind his former team of his abilities from the Running Back position, but the Vikings Offensive Line have not been able to establish the ground game with any consistency as injuries have piled up.

Making it tougher is trying to run against this Green Bay Defensive Line which is much stronger than previous editions when it comes to clamping down on the run.

Keeping the Vikings in obvious passing situations wil be important and allow the Packers to unleash the pass rush that has rattled Sam Darnold in recent games. Injuries on the Offensive Line have contributed to the pocket crumbling around Darnold and he has absorbed plenty of hits, which is expected to be the case when dropping back to throw against a quality Packers Secondary in this game.

Green Bay will certainly feel they can make some big plays Defensively and that will give a healthier Jordan Love an opportunity to lead the team to a big, important win.

There may be some regret that Aaron Jones is not playing in the Green Bay uniform, but Josh Jacobs can quickly make people forget with his strong performances from Running Back. He is expected to have a few more running lanes to exploit and the Packers will not shy away from driving the ball on the ground if that is what the Defensive unit is offering up.

In recent games it has been possible to push the ball on the ground against Minnesota and this is going to be important for Jordan Love, who will be offered even more time in the pocket than he has been given in recent games. In the main the Quarter Back has played with a clean pocket and there is no doubt that there are areas to attack this Minnesota team down the field.

Christian Watson could miss out, which hurts the Packers and the deep ball play, while there has to be a respect for the ball-hawking playmakers that Minnesota do have in the Defensive Back positions. However, Jordan Love has been careful with his throws and the Packers may just have the balance to 'upset' the hosts in this one, even if the overall Seeding is largely unlikely to be improved.

This has all of the makings of a top quality, Playoff-like game and the Green Bay Packers may edge to the victory as the narrow underdog.


Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Commanders Pick: No one would have expected the Washington Commanders (10-5) to challenge for a Playoff spot in 2024 under a new Coaching staff and a rookie Quarter Back. They are on the brink of confirming a Wild Card spot at the very least, while there is still an opportunity to win the NFC East and the Commanders look to have found their franchise Quarter Back.

There is so much to like about Jayden Daniels and everything he brings to the Commanders and you have to believe his experiences in 2024 will set him up for so much more to come. Washington will be looking to build the team around a Quarter Back on a rookie contract and Daniels co-ordinating a drive to beat the Philadelphia Eagles in a big spot in Week 16 can only help the Quarter Back grow further.

This is another big spot for the Washington Commanders when hosting the Atlanta Falcons (8-7) who have made a Quarter Back change and taken over as the leaders of the NFC South.

Two wins will means the Falcons are in, but one defeat opens the door for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and there is plenty of pressure on Michael Penix Jr at Quarter Back who took over from Kirk Cousins before the Week 16 crushing win over the New York Giants.

Atlanta will be hoping to keep the pressure away from Penix Jr by running the ball and the Falcons Offensive Line have been playing well down the stretch. They have a quality Running Back in Bijan Robinson and we have seen the Commanders struggle in stopping the run for much of the season.

Improvements have been made in the Secondary play, but this Falcons team have a lot of Receivers that can make plays for the Quarter Back and Drake London has been cleared to play.

Michael Penix Jr is being given plenty of good advice from veteran Kirk Cousins and he is playing behind an Offensive Line that will give him time to make plays in the pocket. Of course this is a much bigger spot than facing the New York Giants looking forward to the end of the season, but Michael Penix Jr can help the Falcons sustain some success Offensively and give the Defensive unit something to protect.

One of the reasons the Falcons are in a position to earn a Playoff spot is the big improvements made by the Defensive unit and they will need to be at their best to keep Washington quiet.

The Defensive Line have really clamped down on the run and the Line of Scrimmage looks like it is going to be keenly contested- the Commanders have Brian Robinson Jr and Jayden Daniels capable of ripping out some big gains on the ground, but there is little doubt that the Falcons have had more intensity in clamping down on the run and this could determine the whole game.

Any time the Falcons have Washington in obvious passing situations, the pass rush is likely to have a big impact on Jayden Daniels and the time he has to throw down the field. He can scramble and give himself more time, but Daniels has faced plenty of Sacks too and the Falcons can protect the Secondary by putting the Quarter Back under duress.

For all of the successes Jayden Daniels has had in his rookie season, Interceptions can be an issue and this Falcons Secondary have been picking off passes in recent games to just ensure the team is still in a position to reach the post-season.

Turnovers could be key in this game as well, but the feeling is that Michael Penix Jr and this Atlanta Falcons team can keep this one close on the scoreboard, even on a primetime spot.

Both teams should be bringing their best with so much on the line, and this could be one that goes right down to the wire with big implications around the top of the NFC.


Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: The top Seed in the NFC and the Division crown in the NFC North might be decided in Week 18, but this game is played on Monday Night Football and that means the Detroit Lions (13-2) will know all of their clinching scenarios.

It was put to Head Coach Dan Campbell that he could decide to rest starters if this game is effectively meaningless- that would be the case if the Minnesota Vikings are able to beat the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. However, Campbell made it clear to the media that this is a business trip for the Lions and they will be coming out to win as they do every week.

That decision is perhaps easier to make considering how the Lions season ended last year.

They had a big lead over the San Francisco 49ers (6-9) in this Stadium in the NFC Championship Game, but the Lions allowed the home team to recover and end their hopes of making the Super Bowl. This Week 17 game is not nearly as important for the injury hit 49ers who have been eliminated from the post-season, but Detroit will not have forgotten January 2024 and they might bare their teeth.

Detroit can feel like this is a test of their Offensive game-plan and that could be important with the Playoffs now coming up very quickly.

For all of their issues this season, the 49ers Defensive unit have still played very well and so the Lions will have to be at their best to win here. David Montgomery is likely to sit out, but Jahmyr Gibbs has shown his quality at Running Back and the Lions will be looking to get the ball into the hands of their speedy superstar.

Everything begins at the Line of Scrimmage for the Lions and they will feel they can at least keep Jared Goff in third and manageable spots, which is important for the Quarter Back too. He is more than a game manager, but Goff will have respect for this San Francisco Secondary, even if they have been eliminated from the Playoffs.

The 49ers have lost a number of key players on the Offensive side of the ball, but they are facing an injury hit Detroit team and that may at least give them a chance to keep this one competitive.

Trent Williams has been ruled out for the last two weeks and that is going to hurt San Francisco with the Offensive Line not nearly as strong running the ball without the Tackle. This has been an issue for them all season with the team down to a fourth string Running Back after injuries have piled up in the backfield and it has put all of the pressure on Brock Purdy at Quarter Back.

He has been without key Receivers, but there are holes in this injury hit Lions Secondary and Brock Purdy could have a decent outing in San Francisco's last home game of the 2024 season.

However, the consistency has perhaps lacked with Purdy having to play from third and long on occasion and that is something that the Lions will look to exploit. The kicking issues are another concern for the home team and it feels like the motivation is with Detroit to just make amends for that NFC Championship Game defeat.

And if the Green Bay Packers upset Minnesota on Sunday, Detroit will be playing for a Division crown and potentially the Number 1 Seed in the NFC, which can only aid the motivation for a strong performance here on the road.

MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens - 5.5 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Los Angeles Chargers - 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bengals - 3 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Atlanta Falcons + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 16: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)
Week 15: 6-2, + 3.37 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42.13% Yield)
Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)
Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)
Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)
Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)
Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)
Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

Saturday, 21 December 2024

NFL Week 16 PIcks 2024 (Thursday 19th December-Monday 23rd December)

Three weeks of the NFL regular season remain and the threads over this Christmas period will not be featuring much more than the selections.

We are at that time of the season when teams will begin to think ahead about what is to come and that could see players rested or focus lost if motivation is not as high as it could be.

It is something to consider when making your selections ahead of another very busy and crucial week of games.


Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Teams are securing their places in the post-season as we move into the final three weeks of the regular season and both the Houston Texans (9-5) and Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) are secured as Division Champions.

That means a top four Seeding is in the bag, but that does not mean that all ambitions for the regular season have been met.

For the Chiefs it is all about holding off the Buffalo Bills for the Number 1 Seed in the AFC, which could be huge as Kansas City look to win yet another Super Bowl. Earning the Bye through the Wild Card Round is a huge boost, as is having home field advantage right through to the Super Bowl, and Kansas City need two more wins to secure the top Seed.

Winning out is perhaps not so meaningful for the Houston Texans, although there is still an opportunity to move into the Number 3 Seed that should give the team something to play for. The Texans have won three of their last four games and they are looking for some momentum after an inconsistent season that has perhaps not lived up to the expectations that Houston were managing heading into the season.

Injuries have played a part in that, but the Texans do have an opportunity to produce a couple of big wins to give the team real belief entering the Playoffs.

This is going to be a test for CJ Stroud and the Houston Offensive unit, but there have been some signs that the Kansas City Chiefs are not playing as well on the Defensive side of the ball as they had been. A team that does want to establish the run, Houston have an opportunity to do that against this Chiefs Defensive Line which has just struggled a little bit in recent games.

With a player like Joe Mixon, the Texans can put CJ Stroud and the Offensive unit in a position to use their Wide Receivers to stretch the field. It will also be important to just offer the Quarter Back enough time to make those plays down the field and slow down this Kansas City pass rush and Houston can keep their hopes of finishing as the Number 3 Seed alive.

The Houston Texans know all about how a season can change thanks to injuries, and the Kansas City Chiefs must be extremely grateful that Patrick Mahomes has avoided a significant injury of his own. Things did not look that good in Week 15 when Mahomes was forced out of the game and he did not walk with his full weight on his ankle at the end of the win over the Cleveland Browns, but has been in practice this week.

Andy Reid will not take any chances with the health of his Quarter Back, but Mahomes is set to start and try and help Kansas City secure that top Seed. They do have a capable backup in Carson Wentz, but Patrick Mahomes is a different level of Quarter Back and the Chiefs will go as far as he can take them.

They will need Patrick Mahomes to be at his best with the Chiefs unlikely to have a lot of success running the ball against this Houston Defensive Line. And it is also very important for Mahomes to have his wits about him when dealing with the Houston pass rush, one that is likely to be very effective if they can keep the Chiefs behind the chains.

Throwing out of that pressure will be difficult, although Patrick Mahomes is set to have Marquise Brown available for the first time and that just gives the Chiefs another serious weapon.

Early chemistry issues may be expected, but the Chiefs will be able to have some success throwing into the Secondary, although it is perhaps going to lead to yet another close game involving Kansas City.

The Chiefs have dominated the recent head to head, but this game is expected to be close and competitive and Houston might just be getting enough points on the spread to make them the right team to back. For much of the season Kansas City have been playing close games, even if they win more often than not, and the slight concern about the full health of Patrick Mahomes makes it tough to believe that this one will not play out in a similar way.

Houston look to have turned a corner in recent weeks and have closed out the AFC South and they will be looking to just show what might be to come in January in the Playoff.


Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: Two of the AFC North teams are heading to the Playoffs and it will be a big disappointment for fans of Cincinnati Bengals (6-8) and Cleveland Browns (3-11) that they have fallen way below the expectations of the teams back in September.

Injury has not helped, but the Browns are officially eliminated and the Cincinnati Bengals Playoff hopes are now on life support. With three games left, even winning out may not be enough for the Bengals with the maximum number of wins being nine and the three teams occupying the Wild Card spots already at that mark.

However, you have to credit the Bengals for still playing with focus and they are looking for a third win in a row. It is important for Head Coach Zac Taylor, whose own position has to be questioned, and winning out to finish with a winning record will at least give him something to counter with when the decision about his future is made.

The Bengals still have special talents on the Offensive side of the ball and Tee Higgins is still showing out to win a new contract, either here or with another team. Joe Burrow at Quarter Back has been well supported by Ja'Marr Chase, while Chase Brown has given the Bengals a real threat out of the backfield and it may be tough for the Cleveland Browns to find the motivation here.

Cleveland have lost three in a row and have struggled to contain the Offensive firepower that the likes of the Los Angeles Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs have brought onto the field. It makes it even tougher to believe in them when thinking the Chiefs played with Carson Wentz for plenty of snaps last week and Joe Burrow and company could put the Browns in a tough spot.

To make it tougher for the road team, another Quarter Back change has been made with Jameis Winston replaced by Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

It is the kind of decision that may say to many inside and outside of the building that the Browns are perhaps positioning themselves for a top NFL Draft Pick next year. Dorian Thompson-Robinson will have something to say about that and the Quarter Back is facing a Cincinnati Defensive unit that have been destroyed by injury and with issues struggling any opponent that has faced them.

Teams have found a really good balance against Cincinnati and Thompson-Robinson is a dual-threat from the Quarter Back position and will not hesitate to tuck the ball and run down the field. He should have support from the Offensive Line against this Bengals team that have not played the run or pass very well and Dorian Thompson-Robinson can have success by operating in front of the chains.

However, the Bengals are a team that will bring some pressure up front if the Browns are ever behind the chains and needing to throw down the field. This is where things could potentially get away from Cleveland considering the turnovers that the Cincinnati Secondary have been able to create in recent games.

It has been a long time since the Bengals have beaten Cleveland twice in the same season, but the Offensive unit gives them a chance to do that. If they can move a couple of scores ahead and just force Cleveland to have to take to the air to keep up on the scoreboard, things could spiral out of control for the Browns and it could lead to a big enough win to cover this spread.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders Pick: Sweeping a Divisional rival is never easy in the NFL, but that is what the Philadelphia Eagles (12-2) will be aiming to do when visiting the Washington Commanders (9-5).

We know the Philadelphia Eagles will be returning to the Playoffs in a season where Head Coach Nick Sirianni has been seemingly under pressure throughout. Last season was a disappointment for the Eagles when beaten early in the post-season, but we are not that far removed from Philadelphia making the Super Bowl and Sirianni has deserved his chance.

His team have had some tough moments, but are motoring now and look like they have the confidence to make a real impact in the post-season. The first ambition is to look after the NFC East with a win on Sunday, but the Detroit Lions were beaten by the Buffalo Bills last week which means the Number 1 Seed in the Conference is now in play for the Eagles.

The Eagles are finishing up with three Divisional games, but winning out will put them in a very strong position to secure the top Seed and that is going to be focus.

For the home team, you would think nine wins would put Washington in a really good place when it comes to earning a Wild Card spot, but that is not the case. The NFC North has been really strong and the Commanders are only 1 game ahead of the Seattle Seahawks and 2 games ahead of the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals as far as the final Wild Card place goes.

Back to back wins have just calmed things down for Washington after previously losing three in a row, but there is work to do and this is a tough match up for them against a motivated rival.

Jayden Daniels has to be given respect for the level produced in his rookie season, but wins over Tennessee and New Orleans will not have prepared him fully for this rematch. There was not a lot happening for Washington in the defeat in Philadelphia and finding spaces to exploit against this Eagles Defensive unit is going to be tough.

The Commanders will hope to use the Offensive Line to get things going and they have been able to establish the run effectively in recent games, while the Quarter Back is capable of moving the chains with his legs. However, this is an Eagles Defensive Line that have clamped down on teams up front and they will certainly feel they can do enough to force Jayden Daniels to have to step back and throw into perhaps the best Secondary in the League.

Pressure can be generated up front to aid the Defensive Backs, while Daniels is just going to have to be careful with where he throws the ball having been guilty of a couple of turnovers of late. The Commanders will be well aware that they need to play a clean game if they are going to earn the upset, but it will be tough to move the ball with a lot of consistency when they have the ball in their hands.

A healthier looking Philadelphia team will certainly believe they can have another efficient showing against this Commanders team having piled up 434 yards in the first game and with an almost perfect split between passing and rushing.

Recent games have been better as far as the Washington Defensive Line are concerned, but they have not really gone up against an Offensive Line like the one that the Eagles have thrived behind. Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts can both combine for big yards on the ground, while the latter has shown off his ability when dropping back to throw as he helped Philadelphia keep their winning run going last week.

Despite their strong run, there were reports that Jalen Hurts and Wide Receiver AJ Brown were not on the same page, although that was anything but the case in their Week 15 win. They can combine to get Washington problems in the Secondary and the balance that Philadelphia have with their play-calling will make it tough for the Commanders to keep this much closer than when the teams met earlier in the season.

The money has piled in on the Eagles which has moved the spread past a key number, which has to be a disappointment, but they still look the right side to back in this NFC East Divisional contest. You have to expect Washington to have learned plenty from the first game against the Eagles, but they are not quite at that level and Philadelphia's momentum can take them to a win by around a Touchdown in Week 16.


Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers Pick: Time is getting very close to the end for the Arizona Cardinals (7-7) as they look to force their way into the NFC Playoffs and they need to build on their big Week 15 win over the New England Patriots. This is a chance to put some momentum behind themselves ahead of two Divisional games to conclude the season and the Cardinals cannot afford any more slips as they head into the Eastern Time Zone for this game.

Next up is the Carolina Panthers (3-11) who have lost four in a row after showing some positive signs in the middle of the season.

Bryce Young has shown enough to believe he deserves another year growing in the system with the Panthers and this is a Defensive unit that he can test.

It would be a positive if the Panthers Offensive Line can find a way to establish the run- the problem is not being able to do that against this Cardinals Defensive Line, but the season has been a long one and Carolina have struggled to really get things going on the ground in their recent outings.

The Quarter Back can use his legs to help, and keeping the team in front of the chains is going to be key. If that happens, Bryce Young should be able to have some success throwing against an Arizona Secondary, although being behind the chains would mean having to deal with pass rush pressure.

This is the pressure that can lead to mistakes, which have been an issue for Bryce Young, and the Carolina Panthers have to show there is still some fight left and they are not distracted by games coming up against Divisional rivals to close out the season.

We are seeing the final Carolina home game of the season so you have to believe that is a factor when it comes to motivation, but playing spoiler for Tampa Bay or Atlanta may bring more more than anything else.

The early kick off time is a concern, but the Cardinals should be pretty happy with what they need to do in this one- they are facing a Carolina Defensive Line that has been worn down and been allowing huge yards on the ground, so it is expected to be a game in which James Connor and Kyler Murray can have big numbers.

Arizona's Offensive Line have really powered the run game and they should be able to do the same here, and that is going to put the Cardinals in a strong position to win and cover.

Kyler Murray has been well protected when he has stepped back to throw, and there are some decent Receivers around him to make the plays down the field. With his ability to scramble and just create some panic, Murray should be able to put the Arizona Cardinals in a position to keep their Playoff hopes alive and they have the capabilities of covering this number.


Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears Pick: They kept fighting, but it was a damaging loss for the Detroit Lions (12-2) against the Buffalo Bills having lost some key players to injury. The last month has seen a number of players go down, which has just dented some of the enthusiasm of the Lions fans in booking trips to the Super Bowl, and there is work for Detroit to do if they are going to earn a Bye through to the Divisional Round.

They hold a narrow edge over the Philadelphia Eagles for the top Seed in the NFC, but the Lions are still not in control of the NFC North, which is a testament to the level being produced by the Minnesota Vikings.

Motivation is not going to be hard to find when facing a Divisional rival, and especially not after losing in Week 15. Great teams have shown a resiliency to overcome losses and bounce back immediately and this Detroit Lions team are still deserving a lot of respect, even with some important members of the team on the sidelines on both sides of the ball.

David Montgomery has been ruled out, although Jahmyr Gibbs is more than a capable replacement and the Lions should still enjoy plenty of success on the Offensive side of the ball. Things have been tough Defensively for the Chicago Bears over the last few weeks and Gibbs has shown the kind of burst to really rip out some big gains on the ground to put the Lions in a strong position.

It will all be good for Jared Goff at Quarter Back who is playing a Bears Secondary that has struggled to make the plays needed to stall drives in recent games. There are plenty of talented playmakers for Goff to target and the Lions should be able to keep things moving, even if they are not as strong outdoors as they are inside of a Dome.

Since pushing Detroit on Thanksgiving Day, Chicago have struggled Offensively and there were one or two concerns about Caleb Williams at the end of the latest loss to the Minnesota Vikings. It is a short week, but the rookie Quarter Back is expected to suit up and may enjoy a bit more success against an injury hit Detroit Defensive unit.

He might be aided by a stronger running game than has been evident in recent games and that will give the Chicago Bears a chance to control the clock and allow the Lions Offense to stay cooling off on the sidelines. Being in front of the chains is important for Caleb Williams so he is not being pressurised into forcing throws into tight spots, while it will just ease any pressure around him thanks to this banged up Offensive Line.

Any mistakes and being behind the down and distance will put Caleb Williams under pressure, but there are holes to exploit in this Detroit Secondary. It is a long season for any player coming out of College Football and that has perhaps contributed to Williams' recent performances with the physical wear and tear building up, but he should be able to make some plays much as he did on the road against the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day.

Being on the short week is going to be tough and it should be noted that Detroit had over 100 yards more than Chicago in the first meeting and just lost their focus.

That is unlikely to happen again and especially not after losing in Week 15, and the Lions can take advantage of the fact that the Bears are playing on a short week by coming through with a win that sees them cover this mark too.

MY PICKS: Houston Texans + 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bengals - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Arizona Cardinals - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 15: 6-2, + 3.37 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42.13% Yield)
Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)
Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)
Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)
Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)
Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)
Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)