NFL Week 15 Picks 2024 (Thursday 12th December-Monday 16th December)

There may only be four regular season weeks left in the 2024 NFL campaign, but there is little doubt that the biggest news story leading into the latest round of games actually involves College Football.

The Playoff Bracket was set, but even that has been overshadowed by the very surprising decision made by Bill Belichick to become the new Head Coach of the North Carolina Tar Heels.

Most anticipated that Belichick would join a NFL team in the off-season as he looks to pass Don Shula in the list for all-time wins, but apparently there has not been enough interest in the former New England Head Coach to persuade Belichick to wait for offers and ignore the approach from North Carolina.

It is a coup for the Tar Heels and the rumour is that Bill Belichick has only accepted this job with the succession plan in place that would see son Steve take over as Head Coach when his father steps down. The younger Belichick is expected to leave the Washington Huskies and join up with Bill in what has to be one of the most surprising moves made by a College Football school in recent times.

There is no doubting that it is a huge boost for the Tar Heels, who have underachieved and who are looking to join the elite schools in becoming a regular that plays in the College Football Playoff, especially with the new expanded format set to only get wider in the years ahead. And some are still suggesting that there will be some break in the contract that allows Belichick to think again about returning to the professional ranks at the end of the 2025 season.

A lot of the talking heads will place their own opinion on the record during Week 15 of the regular season, but the players are only focusing on a strong end to the season and the chance to play for a Championship.

Some things did clear up after Week 14- the Kansas City Chiefs look like they have a clear edge to the Number 1 Seed in the AFC, while the NFC North might be down to a two-way battle for the Divisional Championship after the Lions edged past the Green Bay Packers.

The margin for error has certainly lessened a bit more with four games left and there are some big games on slate in Week 15 which is going to have an impact on both Conference Playoff pictures.

After a really strong start to the season for the NFL Picks, the fine margins have just turned and it was another tough week for the selections made.

In another week we could have easily finished 4-2, but it was a 2-4 record when all was said and done and that has just extended the poor run a little too long for my liking.

Week 15 offers another chance to bounce back with the selections kicking off on Thursday Night Football with a big NFC West Divisional battle.

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: Four weeks remain in the regular season and the tightest Division in the NFL will kick things off on Thursday Night Football in Week 15.

All four teams in the NFC West can still see a pathway through to the Playoffs by winning the Division, although time is a factor now. It does also mean that the Divisional games left on the schedule are hugely important for all four teams and you would say exceptionally so for the San Francisco 49ers (6-7) who are propping up the Division and who have a 1-3 record against fellow NFC West rivals.

That means tie-breakers are another factor that could come into play against the 49ers, a team that reached the Super Bowl several months ago and were considered the team to beat in the NFC in some quarters. Injury has made it very difficult for San Francisco, but the blowout win over the Chicago Bears on Sunday has snapped a three game losing run and this is a team that still believes, despite the adversity faced.

Next up is game against the Los Angeles Rams (7-6) who are a game behind the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West, but who have won two in a row including the back and forth with the Buffalo Bills. The Rams also hold a road victory over the Seahawks and look to have plenty of momentum in their bid to return to the Playoffs, despite playing with some inconsistency for much of the season.

Matthew Stafford's experience at Quarter Back has been hugely important for the Rams and helped them come through games even playing with third or fourth string Receiving options. Going into Week 15, Stafford will be very comfortable with the top names back and there could be another boost for the Offensive unit if Tyler Higbee is activated having recovered from a serious knee injury that has kept him out all year.

The Rams make the relatively short journey on a short week, but there will be confidence coursing through the team after the way they held off the Buffalo Bills in Week 14. There was a stubbornness to persist with Kyren Williams on the ground and the Running Back did have a couple of Touchdowns while working up to 87 yards, although it took 29 carries to reach that mark.

Once again the game plan has to be to attack the 49ers on the ground and there have been one or two holes up front that has prevented the Defensive Line from clamping down on the run nearly as well as they would have liked. Running the ball is key to the while Offensive plan that the Rams have so they will look for Williams to continue to pound the rock and see if that leaves their talented Receivers to find spaces to break into out of the play-action.

An experienced Super Bowl winning Quarter Back is obviously going to help, but Cooper Kuup continues to make things easier for Matthew Stafford. He also has an improving Puka Nacua fresh off a day in which he caught 162 passing yards, and the potential return of Tyler Higbee will be a huge boost too.

However, they will be throwing against a 49ers Secondary that can make plays as long as they are able to get some pressure up front from the pass rush. Nick Bosa looks set to miss out on the short week, which will impact that pressure, but the 49ers may still feel they can rush Matthew Stafford and try and stall drives.

Injuries to the likes of Bosa have impacted the Defensive unit, but it is the other side of the ball where San Francisco have really suffered and look to continue to suffer. Already down to a third string Running Back, Kyle Shanahan is only hopeful that Isaac Guerendo is able to go after seeing both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason ruled out for the season.

Running the ball has proven to be a very effective way of attacking the Los Angeles Rams, but being down to a potential fourth string Running Back is one probelm. Arguably a bigger one for the 49ers is the continued absence of Trent Williams on the Offensive Line, a player that has paved the way for the run, and it has just made things a little tougher all around for the 49ers.

Patrick Taylor Jr would be next up for San Francisco at Running Back and had decent numbers in limited appearances for the Green Bay Packers before signing with the 49ers. He did have a Touchdown last week and the 49ers will believe the system allows them to plug in a Running Back that can exploit some of the weaknesses on the Rams Defensive Line.

It certainly helps with Brock Purdy back at Quarter Back and he is likely going to have a bit of time to make his plays down the field with the limited pass rush pressure the Rams have produced in recent games. There are key players out in the Receiving department too, but Purdy has decent chemistry with those that are going to suit up and he can help the 49ers keep the chains moving.

Los Angeles somehow won the first meeting between the Divisional rivals and they have won two in a row overall against San Francisco.

However, you do have to wonder how much intensity they can bring after putting a huge emotional effort into beating the Buffalo Bills on Sunday in Week 14. They are looking healthier at a good time, but San Francisco are desperate and the win over Chicago has just reminded the team what they can still achieve.

It could be a close, competitive game, but the feeling is that the 49ers will find a way to establish the more effective running game and ultimately Brock Purdy makes a play or two more than Matthew Stafford to help the home team pick up a very important win to keep their Playoff hopes alive.

Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans Pick: They return from the Bye Week in a really strong position in the AFC South, but the Houston Texans (8-5) would love to wrap up the Division as soon as possible.

They do hold the tie-breaker over their nearest challengers, the Indianapolis Colts, but the Texans face the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens next with both on relative short weeks and the team will be keen to enter those contests with some momentum.

It is only the second year with DeMeco Ryans as Head Coach and CJ Stroud at Quarter Back, but expectations have been raised by reaching the Divisional Round of the Playoffs last season. 2024 has been tough in terms of consistency with injuries perhaps contributing to the feeling of underachievement, but the Texans are pretty much where they would want to be with the Division close to being secured, which would mean at least one home Playoff game coming up.

They have been hit with a couple of key injuries, but the Texans should be rested and ready to go with the run towards the Super Bowl beginning in Week 15.

Next up is a home game with the Miami Dolphins (6-7) who barely kept their own post-season hopes alive in Week 14 with an Overtime win over AFC East rivals New York Jets. Even then, it is going to likely need the Dolphins to win out and hope one of the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers or Baltimore Ravens slip up in their remaining four games with the Dolphins still two games out of the Wild Card spots.

It is a big ask, but the team and the Head Coach have spoken about focusing only on this Week 15 game with the Dolphins feeling in Playoff mode already. The 1-3 run without Tua Tagovailoa looks like being fatal to their hopes of making the Playoffs and there will be some big decisions that need to be made in the off-season with plenty of Miami fans feeling the window to win a Super Bowl may already be closed for the current roster.

Tua Tagovailoa led the Dolphins to the Touchdown drive to beat the Jets in Overtime last week, and the feeling is that the pressure will be on his shoulders again. In recent weeks the Miami Offensive Line have simply not been able to help establish the run as effectively as they would have hoped and they are not expected to get a lot of change out of this Texans Defensive Line.

Quick passes have been used in lieu of a traditional running game and that has helped Miami, while Tua Tagovailoa may feel there are holes in this Houston Secondary that can be exploited. Those may look a bit bigger after news that the Texans have lost Jalen Pitre for the remainder of the season, but much is going to depend on how much time the Dolphins Offensive Line can give Tagovailoa when he steps back to throw.

If in obvious passing situations, the Houston pass rush has the potential to disrupt drives as long as they can come up and tackle efficiently when the Miami Quarter Back decides to use quick passes to negate that rush.

Miami will feel they can drive the ball up and down the field, but the Houston pass rush might be key if the team are not able to run the ball and become one-dimensional in their play-calling.

That should not be an issue for the Texans who have found a decent balance on the Offensive side of the ball, even if CJ Stroud has perhaps not been as strong as his Quarter Back year. He has not been helped with Nico Collins missing time, but the top Wide Receiver is back for Houston and Joe Mixon has shown there is plenty left in the tank at Running Back.

Unlike Miami, Houston are going to be confident in being able to hand the ball to Mixon and have him keep the team in third and manageable spots, which also means the play-action becomes a real advantage for the Texans.

This should just offer CJ Stroud the time to attack a Miami Secondary that made Aaron Rodgers look more like the Green Bay version of the Quarter Back rather than the one that has been playing for the Jets this season. With Collins and Tank Dell around, the Texans may just be able to sustain drives that much easier than the Miami Dolphins and it may end up giving the home team the edge.

There is a desperation about the Dolphins that can inspire, but it has long been said that 'needing' to win games is not exactly a glowing recommendation about strength of the team involved. Coming out of a Bye Week, the Houston Texans should be healthy and ready to compete and they may just have the balance on the Offensive side of the ball that forces Miami into positions where they have to throw.

This is where the Houston pass rush could come into their own and they can win this game and just move a step closer to locking down the Number 4 Seed in the AFC.

MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Houston Texans - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)

Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)

Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2024- Emanuel Navarrete vs Oscar Valdez II (Saturday 7th December)

It has been a brilliant year for Boxing fans, although the only real criticism you may feel in the United Kingdom is the lack of really big cards here.

There have been some top nights, but it is clear that Matchroom, Queensberry and Boxxer promotions are all well aware that more nights are needed to keep fans engaged and attending events, especially if there is ever a moment that the Saudi Arabian authorities decide they are going to pull back from the sport.

For now that looks far from the case with another big night planned on Saturday 21st December to round out the year and with the Ring Magazine purchased, while other sources that are important to the sport have had offers, including Boxrec.

Those have been resisted for now, but it is clear there are no immediate plans for Turki Alalshikh to slip behind the scenes.

In fairness to the face of the Saudi promotion, Turki Alalshikh has been able to announce a hugely impressive card for Saturday 22nd February back in Riyadh- it is a card that features three or four fights that could be headline acts alone and with solid support around those, while Alalshikh admitted there are at least two other bouts that had to be removed to just ensure fans are not having to sit down for too long to take it all in.

Those bouts removed will be announced for a March card according to Turki Alalshikh and there are plenty of other big fights that he wants to put together, which can only be good news for fans.

And with Eddie Hearn and Frank Warren both joining forces on DAZN, an announcement for their first quarter fight nights in 2025 are also expected soon, which should only be further positive news.

In reality, by the time the Oleksandr Usyk vs Tyson Fury rematch rolls around later this month, the first quarter of the Boxing calendar for 2025 should have a few weekends filled out and there should be much to look forward to.

For now the concentration is on another big weekend with three decent cards across three different parts of the world.

World Titles are on the line, and World eliminators will be fought out and it all begins in the early evening in London before the action shifts to the United States and Puerto Rico.

Emanuel Navarrete vs Oscar Valdez II

There will be plenty of eyes on the main event in San Juan where Liam Paro defends his World Title against Richardson Hitchins, but the layers are not having an easy time separating the two.

In reality, a World Title may be on the line but it looks like a terrible match up and one that is only really designed to set the winner up for a big bout in 2025.

Liam Paro might have a slight edge, and the hope is that he comes through with a more attractive style compared with Richardson Hitchins, although the latter has plenty of attributes that could see him edge this one. My hope is to be pleasantly surprised by the quality of the fight, but it is not one where my expectatons are all that high.

Instead the main focus from the two late cards will be the one that Top Rank have put together.

The headline is a rematch between Emanuel Navarrete and Oscar Valdez and it really feels like a bout where the losing fighter may struggle to determine a good path back to relevancy.

It is easy to make the argument that this World Title bid means more to Oscar Valdez who lost the first fight with Emanuel Navarrete without really putting a dent in the Champion. The defeat was the second in three fights for Oscar Valdez against truly world class opponents, but he bounced back with a Stoppage of Liam Wilson earlier this season to earn a second crack at the WBO World Title.

Since that win, things have not been the same for Emanuel Navarrete, which has perhaps made this rematch a bit more intriguing considering the strong win he had in the first bout in August 2023.

A Majority Decision draw with Robson Conceicao to retain his title was followed by a very tight defeat to Denys Berinchyk in the Lightweight Division, which has forced Navarrete back to the Super Featherweight Ranks.

It was a poor night for Emanuel Navarrete and there is a concern that the miles on the clock have added up and perhaps put him on the decline in his career. Going back down to 130 Pounds will help, and Navarrete has admitted has work to do in order to improve his technique.

There is also a feeling that Emanuel Navarrete needs to work harder to achieve what he wants, but the power that did not carry up to Lightweight should be much more telling back at Super Featherweight. Some have suggested that ha had not put in the kind of effort you would expect in training camp, but a loss should just refocus the defending Champion and he might be all the better for that.

In their first meeting, Emanuel Navarrete took away some of the Oscar Valdez heart and a hand injury perhaps hindered his chances of pushing through and eventually Stopping the challenger who has come up in weight.

Oscar Valdez is definitely on the back nine of his own career and we will learn how much he still wants it when he has to come through some stormy moments.

The feeling is that Emanuel Navarrete has a bit more in the tank and his extra power should start to break down Oscar Valdez, whose time at this level feels much closer to the end than the Champion. He was getting a little beaten up in the first meeting and that was against a Navarrete with an injured hand with the suggestion that this time the power is a bit more telling and can force a Stoppage in the final quarter of the contest.

The co-main event on this card is another rematch when Rafael Espinoza defends his WBO World Featherweight Title against Robeisy Ramirez.

The defending Champion won the World Title in an upset of Ramirez almost exactly twelve months ago and Rafael Espinoza is tall and awkward for this Division. However, that has led to some suggestions that the unbeaten fighter is thinking of moving up to Super Featherweight and could have potentially had some issues making weight.

His work ethic saw Espinoza overcome a Fifth Round Knock Down and later put Robeisy Ramirez on the floor in taking a Split Decision win.

The former Champion has stated that he was not ready for the first fight and Robeisy Ramirez was perhaps looking past Rafael Espinoza at potentially bigger bouts that could have been ahead. Boxing is a sport where losing focus can end up with a real punishment and Ramirez will be very keen to make up for the defeat.

He can redeem himself, even set as the underdog and Rafael Espinoza's suggestion that he needs to move up in weight after this one could mean the body work is where the title can be reclaimed by Robeisy Ramirez.

The Cuban had Rafael Espinoza hurt the first time around, and the extra focus for this remaatch should see Robeisy Ramirez bounce back and reclaim his World Title with an impressive performance.

Over in London, Frank Warren and Queensberry Promotions have put together another of their 'Magnificent Seven' cards and there are a host of their potential stars in the making on show.

The headliner is a WBO World Title eliminator and there is a real feeling that Warren is hoping to set up a huge Unification between two British fighters at the back end of 2025 if the names on his roster can bring home World Titles over the next six months.

There is a decent undercard, which is expected, and the return of Lawrence Okolie under a third different promotional banner is intriguing, if only because the former Cruiserweight and Bridgerweight Champion has now officially entered the Heavyweight ranks.

It is tough to really have great expectations of Okolie in this Division, but he should get some big opportunities to prove a lot of people wrong over the next year.

He has come in very heavy, but should have too much for Hussein Muhamed and likely gets the job done before the second half of the fight.

Another Heavyweight is making a return from a fourteen month layoff (even though it feels a lot longer than that) and David Adeleye is looking to bounce back from the one-sided loss to Fabian Wardley in October 2023. He is with a new trainer now, Adam Booth, but Adeleye is not going to be entering a tune up.

Instead it is unbeaten Solomon Dacres in front of Adeleye, but the feeling is that the latter's power edge will prove to be telling.

Big things are expected of Sam Noakes who is in the chief support position on the card and he continues his progression towards the World level.

He has earned plenty of experience from his last two fights at European level and he is the naturally bigger man compared with Ryan Walsh, who has veteran experience and will feel he has nothing to lose as the B side.

However, it is far from ideal preparation to have just five Rounds under the belt since March 2022 and Ryan Walsh's record of never being Stopped in a professional ring will be under serious threat.

In reality, Ryan Walsh is unlikely to have been hit as hard and consistently as he will when facing Sam Noakes and this could be a real statement performance in an impressive 135 Pound Division.

The main event was mentioned above and both Denzel Bentley and Bradley Pauls have a massive opportunity in front of them with the winner becoming mandatory for the WBO World Title held by Janibek Alimkhanuly.

This is a rematch that Bentley has wanted ever since pushing the Champion to a defeat on the cards, but his stock dipped after losing his British Title to Nathan Heaney.

While trying not to make excuses, Denzel Bentley has made it clear that all was not right on that night and he has won two fights in a row to earn this opportunity to regain the British Title that was lost.

It is Bradley Pauls who holds it after beating Nathan Heaney in a Twelfth Round Stoppage in a rematch of a controversial draw between the two. Credit has to be given to Bradley Pauls after bouncing back from the defeat to Tyler Denny, but there is a feeling that Denzel Bentley at his best is a significant step up from the level of Pauls, Heaney and Denny.

The Londoner can be frustrated at times depending on the style, but this main event looks like it will mesh pretty well with Pauls looking to come forward.

Ultimately that could lead to his downfall against someone who hits very hard like Denzel Bentley and the feeling is that the former Champion can earn the British Title again and then push for the rematch with Alimkhanuly in the first half of 2025 with the hope that eventually there could be a Unification against Hamzah Sheeraz to be arranged.

MY PICKS: Emanuel Navarrete to Win by KO/TKO @ 3.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Robeisy Ramirez to Win by KO/TKO @ 4.50 William Hill (1 Unit)

Lawrence Okolie to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)

David Adeleye to Win by KO/TKO @ 2.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Sam Noakes to Win Between 1-6 @ 4.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Denzel Bentley to Win By KO/TKO @ 2.62 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Boxing 2024: 31-58, + 5.74 Units (115 Units Staked, + 4.99% Yield)

College Football Week 15 Picks 2024- Conference Championship Games (Friday 6th December-Saturday 7th December)

The release of the penultimate College Football Rankings have caused some controversy with the ACC feeling very much disrespected for a second season in a row after Alabama came out ahead of the Miami Hurricanes, despite the latter having fewer defeats on the record.

Things may yet get even worse for the Conference if the SMU Mustangs are beaten in the Championship Game and 'punished' for having the chance to compete for a Championship. Plenty of people believe a loss for the Mustangs would see them also drop behind the Crimson Tide in the final Rankings which are due out next week and the case will soon be made for another expansion of the Playoff.

Teams like the Mississippi Rebels and South Carolina Gamecocks have been lobbying for their own spot in the twelve team Playoff, but they are both set to miss out despite the talented teams they have put together.

In reality we will go into the Championship Weekend knowing virtually all but three of the teams that are expected to make the Playoffs- the winner of Boise State vs UNLV will be in, the winner of SMU vs Clemson will be in, and the winner of the Big 12 Championship will be through. The losers in all three of those Championship Games are expected to miss out with the feeling being that the nine teams that have booked spot in the Playoffs being Texas, Georgia, Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Indiana and Alabama.

Perhaps there will be a surprise or two next week, but that looks unlikely, while a a win for SMU means the Committee will be under far less pressure.

Tulane Green Wave @ Army Black Knights Pick: There may have been an outside chance for the American Athletic Conference Champion to have earned a place in the College Football Playoff, but recent losses have ended that push.

The final regular season game saw the Tulane Green Wave (9-3) lose to the Memphis Tigers as a big favourite, which ended any lingering hopes of making the twelve team Playoff. Winning a Conference Championship is still a huge achievement for any team that begins the season and that is going to be the motivation for the Green Wave who have to travel to West Point for the Championship Game.

Hosting is the surprising Army Black Knights (11-1) who bounced back from a crushing loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish by beating UTSA and earning home advantage for the American Athletic Championship Game. This is not the last game on the schedule for the Black Knights who have their big rivalry game against Navy coming up next week, but the focus right now is for Army to win the Championship in their first season in this Conference.

The loss to the Fighting Irish served as a big reminder to the Black Knights that they still have a considerable gap to bridge to the very best teams in College Football. For much of this season there has not been a big respect for the Army achievements because of the level of opponents they have faced, but they can change all that by becoming Champions on Friday.

Much like the majority of fans, the Green Wave Defensive unit have to know what to expect when the Black Knights line up with the ball in their hands.

Everything begins and ends with the running game and the concern for Army is that they have not been at their most efficient best in recent games. The key for the team is to make sure they are always in front of the chains, but this is going to be another challenging game for the Army Offensive Line against a Tulane team that have found a way to clamp down on the run.

With more investment in stopping Army up front, the Green Wave may feel they can at least force their opponent to become a little uncomfortable and have to take to the air to keep the ball moving. Bryson Daily, the Army Quarter Back, has shown he can have success with his arm rather than just his legs, but there will be pressure around him if he is throwing out of third and long spots, while the Tulane Secondary have played the pass pretty well.

Running the ball will also be a big part of the game plan for Tulane Offensive unit, but the edge may be with the road team because of the balance they have had between the air and ground attack. In recent games the Army Defensive Line have had some difficulty in shutting down the run so there is every chance to believe the Green Wave will be able to keep themselves in third and manageable spots on the field.

Motivation will be easy for Tulane having struggled to get Makhi Hughes going in the defeat to Memphis, but this may be a better match up for the Running Back and the team.

Darian Mensah should have time playing as the Tulane Quarter Back and being in front of the chains would be a huge bonus for him as he attacks this Army Secondary. Interceptions can be an issue for Mensah and he will have to be cautious about the ability of this Army team in turning the ball over, but the mistakes can be easier to avoid without the pass rush pressure and not having to take too many risks to keep the team moving.

The balance Offensively is going to make a difference and you can understand why Tulane have been set as the road favourite, especially as they can be considered the second best team that Army have faced this season.

Army will be motivated to show they are as good as the record would suggest and to show they can compete with better teams after being crushed by the Fighting Irish. They will be disciplined, which makes them a tough out, but the Tulane Green Wave are experienced at taking part in the American Athletic Championship Game and that can help them on their way to a win and a cover.

UNLV Rebels @ Boise State Broncos Pick: They begun the season with three straight wins and there was a lot of excitement around the UNLV Rebels (10-2) before a surprising announcement that Quarter Back Matthew Sluka was going to leave the team. The decision was made regarding payments that was owed to him and Sluka has ensured that he can play for another College Footbal team next season.

In his place, Hajj-Malik Williams should be given a lot of credit for the performances at Quarter Back that have steadied the ship for the Rebels and now offered them one more big opportunity to make 2024 a season that the fans could not have imagined.

Hajj-Malik Williams has over 1700 passing yards with 17 Touchdowns and 4 Interceptions on the season and has led the Revels to a 7-2 record. He will be looking to help UNLV earn some revenge on Friday in the Mountain West Championship Game in this rematch with the Boise State Broncos (11-1) having been beaten at home by then in a tight, competitive game at the end of October.

Ten straight wins has put Boise State on the brink of not only making the College Footbal Playoff, but to earn a Bye through to the Quarter Final. They are the favourites to beat the Rebels again and win the Mountain West Championship, but the Broncos will also have a big respect for what is in front of them.

When the Broncos have the ball, it is going to be a battle of wills at the Line of Scrimmage- Travis Hunter is the leading contender to win the Heisman, but the Broncos have been making plenty of noise about Running Back Ashton Jeunty who has dominated on the ground behind the Boise State Offensive Line.

Ashton Jeunty had 128 yards and a Touchdown on the ground in the first meeting with the Rebels, but it was a grind which is a testament to the strength that UNLV have shown on the Defensive Line. Down the stretch of the regular season, the Rebels have really been clamping down on the run and they will certainly feel having any kind of authority of Jeunty will give them a good chance of earning the upset.

Stopping him compltely is unlikely, but there may be a bit more pressure on Maddux Madsen to do a bit more out of the Quarter Back position than handing off to his star Running Back. He has been efficient with his play and Madsen had a solid outing in helping the Broncos edge past UNLV on the road earlier this season.

The Line of Scrimmage is going to be a big factor on the other side of the ball too and that is because the Rebels Offensive Line have a tough task in establishing the run against this Boise State Defensive Line. It was only the running ability of Hajj-Malik Williams that helped the Rebels get things going on the ground in the first meeting, but you have to believe Boise State will have a spy on the Quarter Back and the traditional run game may struggle.

In saying that, Williams might have a stronger game throwing the ball considering some of the holes that have been evident in the Broncos Secondary. The expectation is that the Quarter Back is going to have some time in the pocket and Hajj-Malik Williams will be confident having led the Rebels to as much success as he has in difficult circumstances.

Last season the Boise State Broncos did crush the UNLV Rebels in the Mountain West Championship Game and that was on the road, but there is a lot more on the line for the favourites in this one. Both teams know a win will take them into the College Football Playoff, but the expectation is on the shoulders of the home team and this UNLV Rebels team are competitive enough to keep this one close.

Can the Rebels earn the upset? They were only beaten by five points when the teams met at the end of October and the Offensive unit may be even more comfortable with their current Quarter Back. That should help, but the Broncos have home advantage and ultimately it may see them just about come out on top and book their place in the College Football Playoff.

Arizona State Sun Devils vs Iowa State Cyclones Pick: The expansion of the College Football Playoff meant every then Power 5 Conference would see their Champion make the final twelve teams. The collapse of the Pac-12 changed things a little bit, but the Big 12 Championship Game offers a big opportunity for the Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) or the Iowa State Cyclones (10-2).

A Conference that has lost powerhouses like the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns proved to be a fight until the end and the permutations left Colorado and BYU on the outside of the Championship Game, despite the top four all finishing with 7-2 Conference records.

That is not going to be something that bothers the two teams that will be playing in Dallas on Saturday with Iowa State and Arizona State both feeling pretty confident about their chances of making it through to the Playoff. Not many expected this kind of season from the Arizona State Sun Devils having moved from the Pac-12 after a disappointing 2023, but fight straight wins have gotten them into the Big 12 Championship Game.

It is three straight wins for the Iowa State Cyclones who have already made their mark on history having become the first team to ever win ten games in a single season for this school. They are now chasing a first Championship in over 110 years and a win for the Cyclones would see them earn a spot in the new look post-season, which would have been the aim when beginning the season with seven straight wins.

The Cyclones will be keen to establish the run against this Sun Devils Defensive Lie if only to give the team some balance Offensively, but the actual success of this Championship Game is going to come down to the performance of Quarter Back Rocco Becht who has played well enough to join Brock Purdy on an exclusive Iowa State list.

He has over 3000 passing yards for a second time in the Cyclones uniform, which is something that only Purdy had achieved previously, and Rocco Becht will be confident in his abilities having put up 20 Touchdown passes with 8 Interceptions. However, this Sun Devils Defensive unit is not just pretty good at stopping the run, but have played the pass well too and they are a team that will jump into routes and turn the ball over.

in a game that is expected to have tight margins, those turnovers could be key, although Arizona State will have a very healthy respect for the ability of the Wide Receivers that the Cyclones will trot out onto the field.

There will be some challenges for Iowa State when they have the ball, even with the strong passing game they have shown for much of the season. And there is certainly going to be a big test for the Cyclones on the other side of the ball where their character and grit will be tested by the Arizona State Offensive Line.

Cam Skattebo has been the star of the Arizona State Offense and has piled up almost 1400 yards on the ground with 17 Touchdowns rushed in. The Offensive Line is obviously a big help to those numbers and the Sun Devils could be very excited about facing the Cyclones Defensive Line which has struggled to deal with the ground attacks all season.

Controlling the clock and wearing down the Defense with power running is going to be the plan for the Arizona State Sun Devils, but don't ignore the passing game and the threat that Quarter Back Sam Leavitt offers. He has close to 2500 passing yards despite having to overcome a rib injury and the Sun Devils were making some big plays through the air down the stretch.

Iowa State's Secondary have decent numbers, but some of that is down to the fact that teams have been able to pound them on the ground, while Arizona State's top Receiver is out. That is going to be a blow to the narrow favourite, but the Sun Devils still look the most likely winner and College Football Playoff team out of the two competing.

Both are going to be feeling confident, but the feeling is that the Cyclones may be facing a tougher Defensive unit that matches up pretty well with them.

Add in the struggles to stop the run all season and it is hard to see how that changes in the Big 12 Championship Game, which should mean the Sun Devils are moving the ball with plenty of consistency. That could be key to this big game for both teams as they push for their place in the College Football Playoff, and Arizona State may just edge it to cement what has been a special, unexpected season with more to come in December.

Texas Longhorns vs Georgia Bulldogs Pick: A couple of weeks ago it was suggested that some of the top SEC teams that had already suffered multiple defeats would be better off missing out on the Championship Game. However, the Alabama Crimson Tide and their three losses have been slotted into a position where they look certain to take part in the Playoff and so the concern about falling out of the twelve team post-season is not going to be a factor in this one.

Instead the Texas Longhorns (11-1) and Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) can play for the SEC Championship knowing they will have a big achievement in being crowned Champions and will also earn a Bye through to the College Football Playoff Quarter Final.

The losing team will be involved in the First Round, but neither team will be thinking about losing in a rematch of a regular season game that was won on the road by the Georgia Bulldogs.

It was a game that saw too many errors from both Offensive units and the feeling is that the one that cleans up those mistakes the best will come out on top.

Georgia won their final regular season game against rivals Georgia Tech, but needed EIGHT Overtimes to do that and you do have to wonder what kind of impact that is going to have on their performance just several days later. It really is an unprecedented circumstance, even if winning means they will have a spring in their step, and the Bulldogs will be well aware that this is a much tougher test all around.

Carson Beck is in good form at Quarter Back, but he will have a lot to prove having thrown 3 Interceptions in the win over the Longhorns two months ago. He was well protected by his Offensive Line, which is going to be tested by the Longhorns pass rush, but Beck was inefficient having thrown the ball 41 times for the 175 passing yards produced.

The Quarter Back would love the Offensive Line to find a way to establish the run and leave him in third and manageable spots, but running against the Texas Defensive Line has been difficult all season. The Bulldogs did pretty well on the ground in the first game against Texas and they will be hoping they can replicate that and keep Carson Beck out of situations where he has to test this Secondary by holding onto the ball longer than usual.

The Bulldogs will feel they showed enough in the first game to have the confidence to take on the Longhorns again, especially if Carson Beck plays a cleaner game. They will look to run the ball and just keep things grinding out and making sure the Texas Offensive unit is left to cool off on the sidelines.

Running the ball is also going to be important for the Texas Longhorns, especially seeing the successes that the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets were able to have on the ground last week. In the game hosted by the Longhorns, the Offensive Line were not able to exploit the Bulldogs, but they may feel they are playing them a better time now and keeping Quinn Ewers in third and manageable is just as important for them as it is for Carson Beck and the Bulldogs.

For some of the issues the Bulldogs have had in controlling the run, the Secondary continues to play at a decent level and there has been an underwhelming passing game in Texas in recent games. Quinn Ewers is trying to be a little more careful with the ball, which is very important in these huge SEC games, and you have to believe that Texas will not want to give too much away if they can help it.

Instead the plan may be to have the team operating out of third and manageable and for the Quarter Back to get the ball out of his hands and to his playmakers as soon as possible.

Picking a winner is difficult, especially after the way the regular season ended for the Georgia Bulldogs and what kind of energy has been sapped. However, the win in the regular season gives them confidence and this could end up being a game where the teams are looking to avoid giving much away to the other.

The lean will be on the rushing attack and that could end up shortening the game, which has made the total line look a touch on the high side.

It is much lower than when the teams met in October and they combined for 45 points that day- you have to feel that the focus is to limit mistakes this time and both teams will want to pound the rock rather than looking for the Quarter Back to make quick strike throws down the field.

With the College Football Playoffs coming up pretty quickly, the focus could quickly turn to that if a team falls too far behind and then it will be about limiting injuries and not giving away plays that can be used to surprise opponents. The SEC Championship Game does look a good one on paper, but one that may not offer up as many points as this total would suggest.

SMU Mustangs vs Clemson Tigers Pick: The upset suffered by the Miami Hurricanes in Week 14 has cost them not only a place in the ACC Championship Game, but also the College Football Playoff if the latest Rankings are anything to go by.

It leaves the SMU Mustangs (11-1) and Clemson Tigers (9-3) fighting it out for the Championship and a place in the twelve team Playoff.

Controversy could perhaps strike if the Mustangs were to lose- there is a real feeling that the team that loses this one will be left out of the Playoff and that despite the fact that SMU finished the regular season with two fewer losses than the Alabama Crimson Tide. There is plenty of lobbying happening behind the scenes by the ACC, a Conference that feels let down already having seen the unbeaten Florida State Seminoles left out of the four team Playoff last season.

That disappointment was furthered by seeing where the Hurricanes were Ranked following a second loss of the season and having the Mustangs punished for losing in the Conference Championship Game when Alabama failed to make the SEC Championship Game would sting.

Fans of the Mustangs will be hoping that their team can focus on simply winning and crowning themselves ACC Champions. They have not had the most taxing of schedules, which is something the Committee may hold against them if losing to the dangerous Clemson Tigers, especially with Clemson way down the Rankings after losing to South Carolina in their last regular season game.

Dabo Swinney has guided the Tigers to National Championship success before and the opportunity to reach the Playoff will be one that they will be very keen on taking. The upset of the Hurricanes opened the door for Clemson and they have a team that will feel they have 'nothing to lose' having expected the season to be almost over in terms of their major goals.

This is going to be one of the toughest tests that the Mustangs Defensive unit have faced all season, but SMU have plenty of motivation to prove how good they are. The Defensive Line has been one that has clamped down on the run and the Line of Scrimmage looks like being a big part of what will happen on this side of the ball.

Clemson will want to run the ball and keep Cade Klubnik in third and manageable spots and they have been pretty good at getting the Offensive Line to push forward and create running lanes. This will be very important to negate the powerful pass rush that the Mustangs have put together in recent games and just ensure the Quarter Back is not having to allow routes to develop down the field.

Over the course of the season there have bene opportunities to throw well against this SMU Secondary so Klubnik is going to be confident he can have another big game. However, the Mustangs are playing with a different confidence level now and you have to believe they can rattle Cade Klubnik with the pressure up front and that could lead to stray passes to stall drives.

The Mustangs will also want to show they belong in the Playoff with a big performance from the Offensive unit, one that may make up for any defeat they could potentially suffer. The Committee have made it clear that the ACC is not seen as strong as the SEC and so the 8-0 regular season record means little when it has not been build on teams that are Ranked highly by the Playoff Committee.

Losing to a team significantly lower in the Rankings will hurt SMU, but they will want to show they can compete with a school that has regularly played in the post-season and won National Championships.

Kevin Jennings has had a strong year at Quarter Back and his dual-threat capabilities are going to be important for the Mustangs- they have not run the ball as well in recent games, but they are facing a Clemson Defensive Line that has not played Quarter Backs with Jennings' ability all that well and who have struggled to deal with the rush.

Playing in front of the chains is going to be massive advantage for the SMU Offensive unit and there are one or two holes in this Tigers Secondary that can be exploited. It will just force the Tigers to slow the pass rush a touch, while the SMU Offensive Line have been good enough to give Kevin Jennings enough time to find spaces down the field.

Turnovers will be important in this game, but there is a feeling that the SMU Mustangs are better than some people are willing to give them credit for. They have come through all of their challenges in the ACC and even the narrow defeat to the BYU Cougars is not that bad considering how close they came to playing in the Big 12 Championship Game and potentially making the Playoffs themselves.

You know the experience of the Clemson Coaching staff is going to make this a real test, but it is one that SMU can come through and book their place in the College Football Playoff for the first time.

Oregon Ducks vs Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: The move from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten looked to be a big test for the Oregon Ducks (12-0), especially with the likes of the Ohio State Buckeyes and defending National Champions Michigan Wolverines involved. However, internally, the Ducks felt confident about playing with the teams in this Conference, one that is likely going to be sending four teams to the twelve team College Football Playoff.

The Ducks would love to move into the Playoff as the unbeaten Big Ten Champion, which would come with the Number 1 Seed and a Bye through to the Quarter Final.

They face the Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) in Indianapolis in the Conference Championship Game, a surprise after the Ohio State Buckeyes were upset by the Michigan Wolverines in Week 14.

All credit to James Franklin and his Nittany Lions who have four straight games since losing to the Buckeyes and who are going to be playing in the College Football Playoff for the first time, even if they were to lose this Championship Game.

The Nittany Lions will not be thinking about losing with the players seeing the chance to perhaps steal the top Seed for themselves as the Big Ten Champion.

It is also a big 'prove it' moment for James Franklin who has a really poor record Coaching Penn State against top 10 Ranked teams. And make no mistake, this is going to be a huge challenge for the Nittany Lions Offensive unit that scored 13 points against the Ohio State Buckeyes and now take on an Oregon Defense that has played at a consistent, high level all season.

Running the ball against the Ducks Defensive Line has proven to be a tough task for most opponents they have faced this season and the Nittany Lions will know how important it is to try and establish the run. In the main it will be to make things easier for Drew Allar at Quarter Back and not have him behind the chains and then trying to allow Receivers to make their way down the field while trying to avoid a fierce Oregon pass rush.

Throwing against the Oregon Secondary would be challenging without the pressure, but it becomes all the tougher if in third and long and the Ducks knowing what to expect. Drew Allar has perhaps not been as strong at Quarter Back as Penn State may have hoped with just shy of 2700 passing yards and 18 Touchdown passes thrown, and so the key for the Nittany Lions is to not put him under the kind of pressure where he feels he needs to make the big plays to keep things moving.

At the same time, it will also be a big test for the Oregon Offensive unit when going up against the Penn State Defense that has been Ranked amongst the very best in College Football.

There is a similar challenge set for the Oregon Offensive Line, which has been very good at establishing the run but which will have rarely faced a Defensive Line like the one that the Nittany Lions bring onto the field. Winning at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball is going to be the key to the outcome of this Big Ten Championship Game.

Even if the Ducks are behind the chains, they may have a bit more belief in Dillon Gabriel at Quarter Back compared with how the Nittany Lions feel about Drew Allar.

This is a very experienced Quarter Back and Gabriel has over 3200 passing yards with 24 Touchdown passes to his name and it does feel there are one or two holes that he could exploit with the talented playmakers around him. Once again, throwing out of third and long will be challenging considering the pass rush pressure that Penn State have generated and a ball-hawking Secondary that loves to pick off passes, but Gabriel's experience has been key for Oregon.

This does look like a good Big Ten Championship Game and the Conference is going to be sending some quality teams to the College Football Playoff with every chance that one goes all the way to become National Champions. Right now the most likely is the Oregon Ducks and they can wrap up an unbeaten season to become Big Ten Champions before moving into the Playoff with a bit more consistent play coming from the Quarter Back.

The Oregon Offensive and Defensive Line may have narrow advantages against their opposite number in this one and James Franklin's poor record against top opponents in College Football cannot be ignored. It may not be a really high-scoring game with the Defenses that are heading onto the field in Indianapolis, but the Ducks have the edge and may have enough to match the Buckeyes margin of victory against Penn State.

MY PICKS: Tulane Green Wave - 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

UNLV Rebels + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Arizona State Sun Devils - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Texas Longhorns-Georgia Bulldogs Under 50.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

SMU Mustangs - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Oregon Ducks - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Week 14: 6-2, + 3.50 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)

Week 13: 4-4, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 12: 3-6, - 3.23 Units (9 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)

Week 11: 1-5, - 4.15 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 4.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 57.86% Yield)

Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)

Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)

Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)

Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)

Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

NFL Week 14 Picks 2024 (Thursday 5th December-Monday 9th December)

Now that the full schedule of any NFL Week is being played in December, it really does feel like the Playoffs have come into view and the picture is beginning to clear up.

There is a big NFC North game kicking things off in Week 14 and we are at the stage of the season where even a catastrophic injury would not prevent the top three teams in that Division from featuring when the Playoffs begin. That is not to say they can coast towards January though with Detroit, Minnesota and Green Bay in a fight to win the NFC North and potentially even the Number 1 Seed in the NFC.

At this moment, the only outside of the NFC North that may have a shot at the top Seed in the Conference is the Philadelphia Eagles, whose fanbase must have forgotten how much stick they were giving Head Coach Nick Sirianni just a couple of months ago. Now the Eagles look like one of the best teams in the NFL again and they are the big favourites to win the NFC East and challenge the Lions, or whoever wins the NFC North Division, for the top Seed in the NFC.

Four of the seven NFC places are likely going to be taken by the teams mentioned, but the top of the NFC South and West Divisions will be a battle that goes down to the wire. The Washington Commanders look to have the schedule that should see them finish strongly behind the Philadelphia Eagles to take another of the Wild Card spots available, but the projection from here is that that the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers win their respective Divisions to make up the full party.

Both the Rams and Buccaneers are likely to be pushed all the way by the Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks and Atlanta Falcons and there is every chance that we could see the first ten win team miss out on a Playoff spot for the first time since the 2020 season.

Right now the AFC looks to also have a number of teams ready for a Playoff run- the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs are officially in with the former already confirmed as AFC East Champion, but with work to do if they are going to take home the Number 1 Seed.

The top two in the AFC North, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, should both reach the post-season, but will be battling it out for the Divisional crown right through to Week 18, while the Los Angeles Chargers are also on course for a return to Playoff Fooball.

Things in the AFC South look very much in favour of the Houston Texans, but there is a feeling that it is a Division with a twist in the tale as the Indianapolis Colts try and chase them down, while I do think the Miami Dolphins are not out of the Playoff hunt just yet.

It was a disappointing loss on Thanksgiving Day, and Miami will have to likely win their remaining five games to try and edge past a strong looking Denver Broncos team, but hope remains. Two games with the New York Jets and a road game at the Cleveland Browns are winnable, even in cold conditions that Miami hate, but the big test may be coming up in Week 15 when the Dolphins travel to the Houston Texans.

All of this means that the importance of games ramps up and the whole Playoff picture can change very quickly with an upset or two along the way.

This is the time of the year when tensions really begin to play a real factor within games and mistakes can be hugely costly overall.

Talking of mistakes, it's been a tough run beginning with Week 10 for the NFL Picks and the bounce of the ball has simply not been on our side.

The Lions blew a big lead on Thanksgiving Day and it was just a terrible decision to pick the New York Giants.

The overall numbers are still in a decent enough position, but it would be a big help if this losing sequence is ended in Week 14 and to just regain some momentum to take into the final month of the regular season and then into the post-season.

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Pick: Three teams continue to dominate the NFC North and, ultimately, the Conference and two of those meet on Thursday Night Football in a big Week 14 game.

Both the Detroit Lions (11-1) and Green Bay Packers (9-3) were home winners on Thanksgiving Day, although the latter made much more comfortable work of the Miami Dolphins than the Lions ended up with the Chicago Bears. Only a late clock management issue prevented the Bears from pushing that opening Thanksgiving Day game into Overtime, but the Lions maintained their winning run and have a one game lead over the Minnesota Vikings within the Division.

The Lions, Vikings and Packers will all be expecting to earn a spot in the Playoff and all three remain challengers for the Number 1 Seed in the NFC. Winning the Division would at least offer one and, most likely, two home Playoff games so there is plenty of motivation for both Detroit and Green Bay in this big game.

A week of recovery between games should mean both teams are prepared as they would for a normal week and that should only make this a very watchable game for those tuning in for the opener of Week 14.

Head Coach Dan Campbell and the Lions Offensive players should feel confident in being able to push the ball down the field and give this Green Bay Defense plenty to think about. All of the Lions success begins on the ground with Sonic & Knuckles, also known as Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery, and the powerful Detroit Offensive Line that has bullied teams and worn them down.

Earlier in the season the Packers were still having some issues when it came to defending the run, but they have improved in recent outings and it is very important to find a way to make plays in the backfield. In an outdoor setting when these teams met at Lambeau Field, both Gibbs and Montgomery combined for almost 140 rushing yards and were moving the ball at 4.9 yards per carry, so this is going to be a considerable test for the Packers in an indoor Stadium.

If the Lions are moving the ball on the ground as expected, it should make things pretty comfortable for Jared Goff at Quarter Back who has been well protected when he has stepped back to throw the ball. With some solid Receiving options, Goff could keep the chains moving through the air against a Green Bay Secondary that has bent in recent games and who have not made the stops with turnovers as they had been doing earlier in the season.

The Lions have to believe they can move the ball with some consistency against a Divisional rival they have beaten in five of the last six meetings, including earlier this season. Detroit won that game on the road despite having 150 fewer Offensive yards than Green Bay, but they had built a big lead and then left Green Bay a little one-dimensional with their play-calling.

They were also playing Jordan Love carrying an injury in the first meeting, but the Green Bay Quarter Back looks much more comfortable right now. Another boost for the Packers is that they might be facing a Detroit Defensive unit that has been hit hard by injury across all three levels and who just allowed Caleb Williams to fight back with the Chicago Bears.

Recent numbers do not look too bad for the Lions, but they have not exactly played the best Quarter Backs in the NFL and this is going to be a much different test.

For starters the Green Bay Packers Offensive Line have continued to open up the running lanes for Josh Jacobs and that should help them control the clock in this game in a tough road setting. Josh Jacobs had 95 yards on the ground in the first meeting and now is facing a Lions Defensive Line that is a little banged up and the former Las Vegas Raiders Running Back could put the Packers in third and manageable spots to make life that much easier for Jordan Love.

He is well protected and Jordan Love should have a bit more mobility in this second game against this NFC North rival than he did in the first and should see the Quarter Back create a bit of time for himself to attack this Lions Secondary, which is also banged up. The Packers young Receivers have looked a little stronger of late and Love has been a bit more careful with the ball, which is key in what could be a very close game.

Turnovers will play a strong part in the outcome of this game, but both teams should have their Offensive successes throughout this big Thursday Night Football contest.

With the injuries piled up in the Detroit Defensive unit, the Green Bay Packers have every chance of securing a backdoor cover with the line where it currently sits. Some layers are already dropping the line to the key number 3, but there are still prices with the hook on the Field Goal margin and that is one which could see the Green Bay Packers come out on top, even in a potentially losing effort.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans Pick: Five weeks of the regular season remain and that means we are getting down to the point of the season when eliminations are confirmed as often as Playoff places being wrapped up.

Three teams in the AFC have officially been eliminated and one of those is the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) in what has been an incredibly poor season. With news that Trevor Lawrence is expected to miss the remainder of the season, the Jaguars are very much in line to challenge for the top Pick in the NFL Draft, which will be a big trade chip at the very least.

They face AFC South rivals Tennessee Titans (3-9) who are very close to cement another season without Playoff Football too.

Jacksonville have lost five games in a row, while the Titans have lost three of their last four, and the former will have Mac Jones at Quarter Back. He came in after Trevor Lawrence was injured in Week 13 and played pretty well, but Jones had been really poor earlier in the season when playing in relief of the franchise Quarter Back and that is a concern for those who still want Jacksonville to win games.

However, for those thinking about Draft Position, Mac Jones at Quarter Back is probably not a bad thing.

The Jaguars would like to lean on the Offensive Line to try and make things that much more comfortable for Jones, but it has been a real struggle trying to establish the run in recent games. This would also mean going up against the strength of the Tennessee Defense and so the pressure is likely going to be on Mac Jones to step back and make the big throws down the field.

Mac Jones will have a test throwing against this Tennessee Secondary and he could have to face up to the Titans pass rush of the team is not able to run the ball effectively. This is a Quarter Back that has struggled at the NFL level and Jones will have to be aware of the Titans Secondary and their ability to turn the ball over.

Running the ball is not going to be much easier for Tennessee whose own Offensive Line have struggled to open the lanes as they would have liked. Fans will be wondering why the Titans ever allowed Derrick Henry to leave after the season he is having with the Baltimore Ravens, and the lack of a run game has not made things any easier for Will Levis at Quarter Back.

It has left Will Levis under siege behind this Offensive Line when stuck in third and long, although the Jaguars pass rush has not really been there in recent games. And despite the issues of pass protection, Will Levis has had some solid moments over the last month which will give him some confidence.

Will Levis is throwing into a Jacksonville Secondary that has given up a huge amount of yards as the losing run has piled up and he can exploit some of the holes. This looks like where Tennessee will find an edge in this game and they can get the better of this AFC South rival in the first of two games still to play against one another before the regular season is concluded.

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Both of these teams are fighting to win their Division going into Week 14 of the NFL season, although the Minnesota Vikings (10-2) are unfortunate to be in the same NFC North as the Detroit Lions. Another win for the Lions on Thursday Night Football has just extended their lead at the top of the Division, but the Vikings have a chance to at least move back in behind them with a win over their former Quarter Back.

A decision was made to trade Kirk Cousins to the Atlanta Falcons (6-6), but it has been an inconsistent season for the Quarter Back and his team. Despite that, the Falcons are leading the NFC South thanks to holding the tie-breaker over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but there is going to be a fight to the finish between those two rivals.

Kirk Cousins will likely receive a decent enough reception from the home fans, especially as the Vikings are having a strong season. However, Cousins is expecting the fans to also be firmly behind the home team and he will have to improve his level of play if the Falcons are going to snap their three game losing run.

The Atlanta Falcons have really struggled to find much of a balance on the Offensive side of the ball, which has not helped Kirk Cousins. The Falcons have a very good Running Back in Bijan Robinson, but the Offensive Line have not really been opening up big rushing lanes for him and now they have to play a Minnesota Defensive Line that has played the run well all season.

Brian Flores will know plenty about Kirk Cousins as a Quarter Back, and the Defensive Co-Ordinator will expect the Minnesota pass rush to rattle him whenever he steps back to throw. Doing so from third and long situations will make things that much more difficult for Kirk Cousins, although he has to at least be a little encouraged by the recent play of the Minnesota Secondary.

Kirk Cousins had been signed by Atlanta to get the best out of the skill players on the Offensive side of the ball and his Receivers can find holes down the field. Interceptions have been a problem for Cousins and that may be the factor that hurts the Falcons, especially as they are expected to have some passing success if they can play a clean game.

It was those Interceptions that perhaps helped the Vikings to make the decision to move to another Quarter Back that could take the team deeper into the Playoffs. After the NFL Draft, the expectation was that JJ McCarthy would be that Quarter Back sooner than later, but Sam Darnold has had other ideas and he looks to have come through a rough patch of form to get back to playing efficient Football from that position.

Sam Darnold will be keen to get a bit more help from the Offensive Line and Aaron Jones, who have struggled to run the ball as they had earlier in the season. Last week Jones was limited to just five rushes having struggled to hold onto the ball and that has underlined some of the issues that Minnesota have had in putting their Quarter Back in third and manageable spots.

Much like the former Viking Quarter Back playing for the road team, Sam Darnold has got a decent match up when it comes to throwing the ball, but he will be looking for the Offensive Line to give him some time. That has not always been the case for Darnold in recent outings, but there are some big time Receivers that he can target and Minnesota can move the chains with some success.

The revenge angle for Kirk Cousins should offer extra motivation and the Falcons have been competitive in two of their last three losses.

And despite Minnesota piling up the wins, they have been involved in some close, competitive games of their own. There looks to be enough points being given to the road team to keep this one within the number, even if Kirk Cousins has to produce a backdoor cover in his long-time home.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The AFC East is already taking shape with the New England Patriots eliminated from the post-season and the Buffalo Bills securing the Divisional title and pushing for the Number 1 Seed in the Conference.

Despite the confidence of the fans and the team going into the season, 2024 has been a really poor year for the New York Jets (3-9). Aaron Rodgers could have been shut down at Quarter Back, especially with elimination fast approaching for the Jets, while rumours continue to swirl that the Quarter Back and the Jets will part way at the end of this season.

It has been a disappointing year for the Miami Dolphins (5-7) too, but they can blame the injury suffered by Quarter Back Tua Tagovailoa that placed them in an early hole. The team looked to be rallying with three straight wins, but they were poor on Thanksgiving Day against the Green Bay Packers as another quality team in cold weather proved too much for the Dolphins.

In Week 14 they are back at home and there is every chance that Miami can keep faint Playoff hopes alive- the team likely need to win out and receive help from some of the AFC contenders ahead of them in the Wild Card Race, but the Dolphins can put a win on the board in this Divisional game.

Miami have won seven of the last eight games played against the New York Jets and they are facing a New York team that have underwhelmed Defensively.

Running the ball against them is going to be tough, especially as Miami's Offensive Line have been banged up and struggled to open the running lanes in recent games. Instead, the game plan has been to get the ball out of the Quarter Back's hands very quickly and the speedy players around Tua Tagovailoa have been able to pick up yards after the catch in lieu of a run game.

Tua Tagovailoa should have success throwing the ball against this Jets Secondary that have not played up to the level of their reputation and Miami's performances in the conditions in South Florida have tended to be much better than on the road.

The Dolphins should be able to move the ball when they have it, but the New York Jets Offense has really not played as expected with Aaron Rodgers looking every bit his age. The Quarter Back insists he wants to keep playing in 2025, but the marriage with the Jets looks to end in divorce and it has just been a messy season all around in Gotham.

Aaron Rodgers could be given some help if the New York Offensive Line can help establish the run, but it should be said that the Dolphins Defensive Line have been pretty stout up front. Miami will feel they can at least keep the Jets out of third and manageable spots on the field and that will allow the pass rush to try and get into the backfield and rattle the veteran playing behind Center.

The passing numbers have simply not been good enough from Aaron Rodgers with the pressure around him crumbling the pocket and Receivers struggling to get on the same page as the Quarter Back. There are some areas on the field that can be targeted as far as the New York Jets passing game is concerned, but after thirteen weeks of the NFL season, it is clear that this team are not consistent enough to trust.

Asking bad teams to cover is not ideal, especially not spreads of this size, but Miami are a much better team than the New York Jets and especially in their own Stadium. Tua Tagovailoa's injury that saw him miss multiple games has contributed to the record, but the Dolphins had won three in a row before losing to the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving Day and they can make the big Offensive plays to pull clear in front of the fans with the additional rest and recovery time to prepare.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: There is every chance that the AFC West will be sending three teams to the post-season, including the two time defending Champions Kansas City Chiefs (11-1).

Despite the record, the Chiefs have not always convinced and have needed some late magic to just edge past a couple of rivals and maintain control of the Number 1 Seed in the Conference. First things first though and that means winning the AFC West and securing at least one and, most likely, two home games in the Playoffs.

The Chiefs do have a decent lead over the Los Angeles Chargers (8-4) and a win on Sunday Night Football would mean Kansas City cannot be caught by this rival.

Jim Harbaugh's return to pro Football has been successful having led the Michigan Wolverines to the College Football National Championship and turning things around for the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers have won five of the last six games played, but that does not mean Harbaugh is satisfied and he has made it clear that more is needed from the Offensive unit if they are going to have a real impact in the post-season.

Justin Herbert has looked much more comfortable with what is being asked of him and he has limited his mistakes, which is key for a Chargers team that are very happy with making their Defensive unit are not dealing with short fields. However, like so many of Jim Harbaugh's teams, the identity of the Offense is making sure they establish the run first and foremost.

Losing JK Dobbins is a blow for the Chargers and it would have been a tough challenge running the ball against this Kansas City Defensive Line even if he was available. In the first meeting between the Divisional rivals, Dobbins had 32 yards on 14 carries and Gus Edwards is not expected to have a lot of success in relief of his fellow Running Back.

Where things may be different for the Los Angeles Chargers is that Justin Herbert had 179 passing yards in the defeat to the Chiefs, but is now potentially going up against a Chiefs Secondary that are struggling to make consistent stops. The Herbert numbers have not been eye-catching, mainly because the Offensive Line has struggled in pass protection much more than run blocking, but he may just have a stronger day throwing the ball with the issues that Kansas City have been having.

The home team have had a bit more time to prepare having beaten the Las Vegas Raiders on Friday in Week 13, but they have continued to coast through the regular season.

We do expect Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes to begin to pick up their level to ensure they are ready to compete for a third Super Bowl title in a row. The Quarter Back is still a huge influence on the Chiefs Offense, but Patrick Mahomes should be helped by the Offensive Line and the Running Backs to make sure he is operating out of third and manageable spots.

It will also perhaps give Mahomes a bit more time when he steps back to throw, especially against this Chargers pass rush, and he can keep some of the momentum of recent performances behind him. Credit has to be given to the Los Angeles Chargers Defense for their overall level produced this season, but there have been one or two more issues as the season wears on and Patrick Mahomes should put up some solid numbers.

Injuries have not helped the Chiefs, but they are still doing what they need to in order to win games and they have matched up well with the Chargers.

Being at home is a big help and Kansas City can back up the earlier win over the Chargers by doing the same here thanks to some strong Patrick Mahomes play. Some of the injuries that Los Angeles have picked up of late does not help their chances and Kansas City may be ready to make a statement on national television about their capabilities of winning a third Super Bowl in succession.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The schedule was made and then released back in May and this Monday Night Football game looked like it could have a lot riding on it as Week 14 came to a conclusion.

Instead it has been a really poor season for the Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) and Dallas Cowboys (5-7), although back to back wins for Dallas might just have given them some hope of making the post-season.

They are faint hopes, but that is more than can be said for the Cincinnati Bengals who have lost four of their last five games and heading into a off-season when big decisions are going to have to be made.

Offensively they are still playing hard and Joe Burrow is playing at a very good level at Quarter Back, while they have found a real balance on this side of the ball. Joe Mixon might be pounding the rock in Houston these days, but the Bengals have still been effective on the ground and the Offensive Line should pave the way for some decent gains in this one.

Keeping the Quarter Back in third and manageable spots just opens up the playbook for the Cincinnati Bengals and Joe Burrow has the big time Receivers that can make the plays for him. Running the ball well will just negate the pass rush, which could be a problem for the Cincinnati Bengals if they are in obvious passing Downs, but otherwise Joe Burrow and the Offensive unit should be able to have plenty of success against this Cowboys Defense.

However, the Bengals are well aware that the problems this season have not been Offensively, but when the opponent has the ball.

Dak Prescott has been missing for Dallas, but Cooper Rush has played well enough to give Dallas something of an Offense, even if Special Teams have been a big help in the win over Washington. On Thanksgiving Day Cooper Rush and the Cowboys had their way with the New York Giants and Dallas should have the Offensive firepower to at least keep themselves competitive.

The spread is a tough one to gauge simply because of the problems that Cincinnati have had Defensively and it will keep a backdoor cover open, even if the Bengals were to win outright.

The Cowboys would love to be able to run the ball- they are facing a porous Cincinnati Defensive Line, but the Dallas Cowboys have not really run the ball as they have previously and that has added to the pressure on the Quarter Back, whether that is Prescott or Rush.

Even if the Cowboys are not running the ball as well as they want, Cooper Rush will have time to find his Receivers against this underachieving Secondary. He isn't going to be confused with an elite Quarter Back, but Rush can make enough plays to keep the Cowboys moving down the field and they can play their part in what might be a high-scoring game on Monday Night Football.

Both Offenses have to feel they can get the better of the Defensive units in front of them and it could be a game where passing may be most important. That could help give the teams combine for enough points to cover this total line set and that is the play for the final game of Week 14.

MY PICKS: Green Bay Packers + 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Tennessee Titans - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Atlanta Falcons + 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Miami Dolphins - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Kansas City Chiefs - 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Dallas Cowboys-Cincinnati Bengals Over 49.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)

Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)

Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)