Now that the full schedule of any NFL Week is being played in December, it really does feel like the Playoffs have come into view and the picture is beginning to clear up.
There is a big NFC North game kicking things off in Week 14 and we are at the stage of the season where even a catastrophic injury would not prevent the top three teams in that Division from featuring when the Playoffs begin. That is not to say they can coast towards January though with Detroit, Minnesota and Green Bay in a fight to win the NFC North and potentially even the Number 1 Seed in the NFC.
At this moment, the only outside of the NFC North that may have a shot at the top Seed in the Conference is the Philadelphia Eagles, whose fanbase must have forgotten how much stick they were giving Head Coach Nick Sirianni just a couple of months ago. Now the Eagles look like one of the best teams in the NFL again and they are the big favourites to win the NFC East and challenge the Lions, or whoever wins the NFC North Division, for the top Seed in the NFC.
Four of the seven NFC places are likely going to be taken by the teams mentioned, but the top of the NFC South and West Divisions will be a battle that goes down to the wire. The Washington Commanders look to have the schedule that should see them finish strongly behind the Philadelphia Eagles to take another of the Wild Card spots available, but the projection from here is that that the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers win their respective Divisions to make up the full party.
Both the Rams and Buccaneers are likely to be pushed all the way by the Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks and Atlanta Falcons and there is every chance that we could see the first ten win team miss out on a Playoff spot for the first time since the 2020 season.
Right now the AFC looks to also have a number of teams ready for a Playoff run- the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs are officially in with the former already confirmed as AFC East Champion, but with work to do if they are going to take home the Number 1 Seed.
The top two in the AFC North, Pittsburgh and Baltimore, should both reach the post-season, but will be battling it out for the Divisional crown right through to Week 18, while the Los Angeles Chargers are also on course for a return to Playoff Fooball.
Things in the AFC South look very much in favour of the Houston Texans, but there is a feeling that it is a Division with a twist in the tale as the Indianapolis Colts try and chase them down, while I do think the Miami Dolphins are not out of the Playoff hunt just yet.
It was a disappointing loss on Thanksgiving Day, and Miami will have to likely win their remaining five games to try and edge past a strong looking Denver Broncos team, but hope remains. Two games with the New York Jets and a road game at the Cleveland Browns are winnable, even in cold conditions that Miami hate, but the big test may be coming up in Week 15 when the Dolphins travel to the Houston Texans.
All of this means that the importance of games ramps up and the whole Playoff picture can change very quickly with an upset or two along the way.
This is the time of the year when tensions really begin to play a real factor within games and mistakes can be hugely costly overall.
Talking of mistakes, it's been a tough run beginning with Week 10 for the NFL Picks and the bounce of the ball has simply not been on our side.
The Lions blew a big lead on Thanksgiving Day and it was just a terrible decision to pick the New York Giants.
The overall numbers are still in a decent enough position, but it would be a big help if this losing sequence is ended in Week 14 and to just regain some momentum to take into the final month of the regular season and then into the post-season.
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Pick: Three teams continue to dominate the NFC North and, ultimately, the Conference and two of those meet on Thursday Night Football in a big Week 14 game.
Both the Detroit Lions (11-1) and Green Bay Packers (9-3) were home winners on Thanksgiving Day, although the latter made much more comfortable work of the Miami Dolphins than the Lions ended up with the Chicago Bears. Only a late clock management issue prevented the Bears from pushing that opening Thanksgiving Day game into Overtime, but the Lions maintained their winning run and have a one game lead over the Minnesota Vikings within the Division.
The Lions, Vikings and Packers will all be expecting to earn a spot in the Playoff and all three remain challengers for the Number 1 Seed in the NFC. Winning the Division would at least offer one and, most likely, two home Playoff games so there is plenty of motivation for both Detroit and Green Bay in this big game.
A week of recovery between games should mean both teams are prepared as they would for a normal week and that should only make this a very watchable game for those tuning in for the opener of Week 14.
Head Coach Dan Campbell and the Lions Offensive players should feel confident in being able to push the ball down the field and give this Green Bay Defense plenty to think about. All of the Lions success begins on the ground with Sonic & Knuckles, also known as Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery, and the powerful Detroit Offensive Line that has bullied teams and worn them down.
Earlier in the season the Packers were still having some issues when it came to defending the run, but they have improved in recent outings and it is very important to find a way to make plays in the backfield. In an outdoor setting when these teams met at Lambeau Field, both Gibbs and Montgomery combined for almost 140 rushing yards and were moving the ball at 4.9 yards per carry, so this is going to be a considerable test for the Packers in an indoor Stadium.
If the Lions are moving the ball on the ground as expected, it should make things pretty comfortable for Jared Goff at Quarter Back who has been well protected when he has stepped back to throw the ball. With some solid Receiving options, Goff could keep the chains moving through the air against a Green Bay Secondary that has bent in recent games and who have not made the stops with turnovers as they had been doing earlier in the season.
The Lions have to believe they can move the ball with some consistency against a Divisional rival they have beaten in five of the last six meetings, including earlier this season. Detroit won that game on the road despite having 150 fewer Offensive yards than Green Bay, but they had built a big lead and then left Green Bay a little one-dimensional with their play-calling.
They were also playing Jordan Love carrying an injury in the first meeting, but the Green Bay Quarter Back looks much more comfortable right now. Another boost for the Packers is that they might be facing a Detroit Defensive unit that has been hit hard by injury across all three levels and who just allowed Caleb Williams to fight back with the Chicago Bears.
Recent numbers do not look too bad for the Lions, but they have not exactly played the best Quarter Backs in the NFL and this is going to be a much different test.
For starters the Green Bay Packers Offensive Line have continued to open up the running lanes for Josh Jacobs and that should help them control the clock in this game in a tough road setting. Josh Jacobs had 95 yards on the ground in the first meeting and now is facing a Lions Defensive Line that is a little banged up and the former Las Vegas Raiders Running Back could put the Packers in third and manageable spots to make life that much easier for Jordan Love.
He is well protected and Jordan Love should have a bit more mobility in this second game against this NFC North rival than he did in the first and should see the Quarter Back create a bit of time for himself to attack this Lions Secondary, which is also banged up. The Packers young Receivers have looked a little stronger of late and Love has been a bit more careful with the ball, which is key in what could be a very close game.
Turnovers will play a strong part in the outcome of this game, but both teams should have their Offensive successes throughout this big Thursday Night Football contest.
With the injuries piled up in the Detroit Defensive unit, the Green Bay Packers have every chance of securing a backdoor cover with the line where it currently sits. Some layers are already dropping the line to the key number 3, but there are still prices with the hook on the Field Goal margin and that is one which could see the Green Bay Packers come out on top, even in a potentially losing effort.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans Pick: Five weeks of the regular season remain and that means we are getting down to the point of the season when eliminations are confirmed as often as Playoff places being wrapped up.
Three teams in the AFC have officially been eliminated and one of those is the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) in what has been an incredibly poor season. With news that Trevor Lawrence is expected to miss the remainder of the season, the Jaguars are very much in line to challenge for the top Pick in the NFL Draft, which will be a big trade chip at the very least.
They face AFC South rivals Tennessee Titans (3-9) who are very close to cement another season without Playoff Football too.
Jacksonville have lost five games in a row, while the Titans have lost three of their last four, and the former will have Mac Jones at Quarter Back. He came in after Trevor Lawrence was injured in Week 13 and played pretty well, but Jones had been really poor earlier in the season when playing in relief of the franchise Quarter Back and that is a concern for those who still want Jacksonville to win games.
However, for those thinking about Draft Position, Mac Jones at Quarter Back is probably not a bad thing.
The Jaguars would like to lean on the Offensive Line to try and make things that much more comfortable for Jones, but it has been a real struggle trying to establish the run in recent games. This would also mean going up against the strength of the Tennessee Defense and so the pressure is likely going to be on Mac Jones to step back and make the big throws down the field.
Mac Jones will have a test throwing against this Tennessee Secondary and he could have to face up to the Titans pass rush of the team is not able to run the ball effectively. This is a Quarter Back that has struggled at the NFL level and Jones will have to be aware of the Titans Secondary and their ability to turn the ball over.
Running the ball is not going to be much easier for Tennessee whose own Offensive Line have struggled to open the lanes as they would have liked. Fans will be wondering why the Titans ever allowed Derrick Henry to leave after the season he is having with the Baltimore Ravens, and the lack of a run game has not made things any easier for Will Levis at Quarter Back.
It has left Will Levis under siege behind this Offensive Line when stuck in third and long, although the Jaguars pass rush has not really been there in recent games. And despite the issues of pass protection, Will Levis has had some solid moments over the last month which will give him some confidence.
Will Levis is throwing into a Jacksonville Secondary that has given up a huge amount of yards as the losing run has piled up and he can exploit some of the holes. This looks like where Tennessee will find an edge in this game and they can get the better of this AFC South rival in the first of two games still to play against one another before the regular season is concluded.
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Both of these teams are fighting to win their Division going into Week 14 of the NFL season, although the Minnesota Vikings (10-2) are unfortunate to be in the same NFC North as the Detroit Lions. Another win for the Lions on Thursday Night Football has just extended their lead at the top of the Division, but the Vikings have a chance to at least move back in behind them with a win over their former Quarter Back.
A decision was made to trade Kirk Cousins to the Atlanta Falcons (6-6), but it has been an inconsistent season for the Quarter Back and his team. Despite that, the Falcons are leading the NFC South thanks to holding the tie-breaker over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but there is going to be a fight to the finish between those two rivals.
Kirk Cousins will likely receive a decent enough reception from the home fans, especially as the Vikings are having a strong season. However, Cousins is expecting the fans to also be firmly behind the home team and he will have to improve his level of play if the Falcons are going to snap their three game losing run.
The Atlanta Falcons have really struggled to find much of a balance on the Offensive side of the ball, which has not helped Kirk Cousins. The Falcons have a very good Running Back in Bijan Robinson, but the Offensive Line have not really been opening up big rushing lanes for him and now they have to play a Minnesota Defensive Line that has played the run well all season.
Brian Flores will know plenty about Kirk Cousins as a Quarter Back, and the Defensive Co-Ordinator will expect the Minnesota pass rush to rattle him whenever he steps back to throw. Doing so from third and long situations will make things that much more difficult for Kirk Cousins, although he has to at least be a little encouraged by the recent play of the Minnesota Secondary.
Kirk Cousins had been signed by Atlanta to get the best out of the skill players on the Offensive side of the ball and his Receivers can find holes down the field. Interceptions have been a problem for Cousins and that may be the factor that hurts the Falcons, especially as they are expected to have some passing success if they can play a clean game.
It was those Interceptions that perhaps helped the Vikings to make the decision to move to another Quarter Back that could take the team deeper into the Playoffs. After the NFL Draft, the expectation was that JJ McCarthy would be that Quarter Back sooner than later, but Sam Darnold has had other ideas and he looks to have come through a rough patch of form to get back to playing efficient Football from that position.
Sam Darnold will be keen to get a bit more help from the Offensive Line and Aaron Jones, who have struggled to run the ball as they had earlier in the season. Last week Jones was limited to just five rushes having struggled to hold onto the ball and that has underlined some of the issues that Minnesota have had in putting their Quarter Back in third and manageable spots.
Much like the former Viking Quarter Back playing for the road team, Sam Darnold has got a decent match up when it comes to throwing the ball, but he will be looking for the Offensive Line to give him some time. That has not always been the case for Darnold in recent outings, but there are some big time Receivers that he can target and Minnesota can move the chains with some success.
The revenge angle for Kirk Cousins should offer extra motivation and the Falcons have been competitive in two of their last three losses.
And despite Minnesota piling up the wins, they have been involved in some close, competitive games of their own. There looks to be enough points being given to the road team to keep this one within the number, even if Kirk Cousins has to produce a backdoor cover in his long-time home.
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The AFC East is already taking shape with the New England Patriots eliminated from the post-season and the Buffalo Bills securing the Divisional title and pushing for the Number 1 Seed in the Conference.
Despite the confidence of the fans and the team going into the season, 2024 has been a really poor year for the New York Jets (3-9). Aaron Rodgers could have been shut down at Quarter Back, especially with elimination fast approaching for the Jets, while rumours continue to swirl that the Quarter Back and the Jets will part way at the end of this season.
It has been a disappointing year for the Miami Dolphins (5-7) too, but they can blame the injury suffered by Quarter Back Tua Tagovailoa that placed them in an early hole. The team looked to be rallying with three straight wins, but they were poor on Thanksgiving Day against the Green Bay Packers as another quality team in cold weather proved too much for the Dolphins.
In Week 14 they are back at home and there is every chance that Miami can keep faint Playoff hopes alive- the team likely need to win out and receive help from some of the AFC contenders ahead of them in the Wild Card Race, but the Dolphins can put a win on the board in this Divisional game.
Miami have won seven of the last eight games played against the New York Jets and they are facing a New York team that have underwhelmed Defensively.
Running the ball against them is going to be tough, especially as Miami's Offensive Line have been banged up and struggled to open the running lanes in recent games. Instead, the game plan has been to get the ball out of the Quarter Back's hands very quickly and the speedy players around Tua Tagovailoa have been able to pick up yards after the catch in lieu of a run game.
Tua Tagovailoa should have success throwing the ball against this Jets Secondary that have not played up to the level of their reputation and Miami's performances in the conditions in South Florida have tended to be much better than on the road.
The Dolphins should be able to move the ball when they have it, but the New York Jets Offense has really not played as expected with Aaron Rodgers looking every bit his age. The Quarter Back insists he wants to keep playing in 2025, but the marriage with the Jets looks to end in divorce and it has just been a messy season all around in Gotham.
Aaron Rodgers could be given some help if the New York Offensive Line can help establish the run, but it should be said that the Dolphins Defensive Line have been pretty stout up front. Miami will feel they can at least keep the Jets out of third and manageable spots on the field and that will allow the pass rush to try and get into the backfield and rattle the veteran playing behind Center.
The passing numbers have simply not been good enough from Aaron Rodgers with the pressure around him crumbling the pocket and Receivers struggling to get on the same page as the Quarter Back. There are some areas on the field that can be targeted as far as the New York Jets passing game is concerned, but after thirteen weeks of the NFL season, it is clear that this team are not consistent enough to trust.
Asking bad teams to cover is not ideal, especially not spreads of this size, but Miami are a much better team than the New York Jets and especially in their own Stadium. Tua Tagovailoa's injury that saw him miss multiple games has contributed to the record, but the Dolphins had won three in a row before losing to the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving Day and they can make the big Offensive plays to pull clear in front of the fans with the additional rest and recovery time to prepare.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: There is every chance that the AFC West will be sending three teams to the post-season, including the two time defending Champions Kansas City Chiefs (11-1).
Despite the record, the Chiefs have not always convinced and have needed some late magic to just edge past a couple of rivals and maintain control of the Number 1 Seed in the Conference. First things first though and that means winning the AFC West and securing at least one and, most likely, two home games in the Playoffs.
The Chiefs do have a decent lead over the Los Angeles Chargers (8-4) and a win on Sunday Night Football would mean Kansas City cannot be caught by this rival.
Jim Harbaugh's return to pro Football has been successful having led the Michigan Wolverines to the College Football National Championship and turning things around for the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers have won five of the last six games played, but that does not mean Harbaugh is satisfied and he has made it clear that more is needed from the Offensive unit if they are going to have a real impact in the post-season.
Justin Herbert has looked much more comfortable with what is being asked of him and he has limited his mistakes, which is key for a Chargers team that are very happy with making their Defensive unit are not dealing with short fields. However, like so many of Jim Harbaugh's teams, the identity of the Offense is making sure they establish the run first and foremost.
Losing JK Dobbins is a blow for the Chargers and it would have been a tough challenge running the ball against this Kansas City Defensive Line even if he was available. In the first meeting between the Divisional rivals, Dobbins had 32 yards on 14 carries and Gus Edwards is not expected to have a lot of success in relief of his fellow Running Back.
Where things may be different for the Los Angeles Chargers is that Justin Herbert had 179 passing yards in the defeat to the Chiefs, but is now potentially going up against a Chiefs Secondary that are struggling to make consistent stops. The Herbert numbers have not been eye-catching, mainly because the Offensive Line has struggled in pass protection much more than run blocking, but he may just have a stronger day throwing the ball with the issues that Kansas City have been having.
The home team have had a bit more time to prepare having beaten the Las Vegas Raiders on Friday in Week 13, but they have continued to coast through the regular season.
We do expect Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes to begin to pick up their level to ensure they are ready to compete for a third Super Bowl title in a row. The Quarter Back is still a huge influence on the Chiefs Offense, but Patrick Mahomes should be helped by the Offensive Line and the Running Backs to make sure he is operating out of third and manageable spots.
It will also perhaps give Mahomes a bit more time when he steps back to throw, especially against this Chargers pass rush, and he can keep some of the momentum of recent performances behind him. Credit has to be given to the Los Angeles Chargers Defense for their overall level produced this season, but there have been one or two more issues as the season wears on and Patrick Mahomes should put up some solid numbers.
Injuries have not helped the Chiefs, but they are still doing what they need to in order to win games and they have matched up well with the Chargers.
Being at home is a big help and Kansas City can back up the earlier win over the Chargers by doing the same here thanks to some strong Patrick Mahomes play. Some of the injuries that Los Angeles have picked up of late does not help their chances and Kansas City may be ready to make a statement on national television about their capabilities of winning a third Super Bowl in succession.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The schedule was made and then released back in May and this Monday Night Football game looked like it could have a lot riding on it as Week 14 came to a conclusion.
Instead it has been a really poor season for the Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) and Dallas Cowboys (5-7), although back to back wins for Dallas might just have given them some hope of making the post-season.
They are faint hopes, but that is more than can be said for the Cincinnati Bengals who have lost four of their last five games and heading into a off-season when big decisions are going to have to be made.
Offensively they are still playing hard and Joe Burrow is playing at a very good level at Quarter Back, while they have found a real balance on this side of the ball. Joe Mixon might be pounding the rock in Houston these days, but the Bengals have still been effective on the ground and the Offensive Line should pave the way for some decent gains in this one.
Keeping the Quarter Back in third and manageable spots just opens up the playbook for the Cincinnati Bengals and Joe Burrow has the big time Receivers that can make the plays for him. Running the ball well will just negate the pass rush, which could be a problem for the Cincinnati Bengals if they are in obvious passing Downs, but otherwise Joe Burrow and the Offensive unit should be able to have plenty of success against this Cowboys Defense.
However, the Bengals are well aware that the problems this season have not been Offensively, but when the opponent has the ball.
Dak Prescott has been missing for Dallas, but Cooper Rush has played well enough to give Dallas something of an Offense, even if Special Teams have been a big help in the win over Washington. On Thanksgiving Day Cooper Rush and the Cowboys had their way with the New York Giants and Dallas should have the Offensive firepower to at least keep themselves competitive.
The spread is a tough one to gauge simply because of the problems that Cincinnati have had Defensively and it will keep a backdoor cover open, even if the Bengals were to win outright.
The Cowboys would love to be able to run the ball- they are facing a porous Cincinnati Defensive Line, but the Dallas Cowboys have not really run the ball as they have previously and that has added to the pressure on the Quarter Back, whether that is Prescott or Rush.
Even if the Cowboys are not running the ball as well as they want, Cooper Rush will have time to find his Receivers against this underachieving Secondary. He isn't going to be confused with an elite Quarter Back, but Rush can make enough plays to keep the Cowboys moving down the field and they can play their part in what might be a high-scoring game on Monday Night Football.
Both Offenses have to feel they can get the better of the Defensive units in front of them and it could be a game where passing may be most important. That could help give the teams combine for enough points to cover this total line set and that is the play for the final game of Week 14.
MY PICKS: Green Bay Packers + 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Tennessee Titans - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Atlanta Falcons + 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Miami Dolphins - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Kansas City Chiefs - 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Dallas Cowboys-Cincinnati Bengals Over 49.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)
Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)
Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)
Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)
Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)
Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)
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