There may only be four regular season weeks left in the 2024 NFL campaign, but there is little doubt that the biggest news story leading into the latest round of games actually involves College Football.
The Playoff Bracket was set, but even that has been overshadowed by the very surprising decision made by Bill Belichick to become the new Head Coach of the North Carolina Tar Heels.
Most anticipated that Belichick would join a NFL team in the off-season as he looks to pass Don Shula in the list for all-time wins, but apparently there has not been enough interest in the former New England Head Coach to persuade Belichick to wait for offers and ignore the approach from North Carolina.
It is a coup for the Tar Heels and the rumour is that Bill Belichick has only accepted this job with the succession plan in place that would see son Steve take over as Head Coach when his father steps down. The younger Belichick is expected to leave the Washington Huskies and join up with Bill in what has to be one of the most surprising moves made by a College Football school in recent times.
There is no doubting that it is a huge boost for the Tar Heels, who have underachieved and who are looking to join the elite schools in becoming a regular that plays in the College Football Playoff, especially with the new expanded format set to only get wider in the years ahead. And some are still suggesting that there will be some break in the contract that allows Belichick to think again about returning to the professional ranks at the end of the 2025 season.
A lot of the talking heads will place their own opinion on the record during Week 15 of the regular season, but the players are only focusing on a strong end to the season and the chance to play for a Championship.
Some things did clear up after Week 14- the Kansas City Chiefs look like they have a clear edge to the Number 1 Seed in the AFC, while the NFC North might be down to a two-way battle for the Divisional Championship after the Lions edged past the Green Bay Packers.
The margin for error has certainly lessened a bit more with four games left and there are some big games on slate in Week 15 which is going to have an impact on both Conference Playoff pictures.
After a really strong start to the season for the NFL Picks, the fine margins have just turned and it was another tough week for the selections made.
In another week we could have easily finished 4-2, but it was a 2-4 record when all was said and done and that has just extended the poor run a little too long for my liking.
Week 15 offers another chance to bounce back with the selections kicking off on Thursday Night Football with a big NFC West Divisional battle.
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: Four weeks remain in the regular season and the tightest Division in the NFL will kick things off on Thursday Night Football in Week 15.
All four teams in the NFC West can still see a pathway through to the Playoffs by winning the Division, although time is a factor now. It does also mean that the Divisional games left on the schedule are hugely important for all four teams and you would say exceptionally so for the San Francisco 49ers (6-7) who are propping up the Division and who have a 1-3 record against fellow NFC West rivals.
That means tie-breakers are another factor that could come into play against the 49ers, a team that reached the Super Bowl several months ago and were considered the team to beat in the NFC in some quarters. Injury has made it very difficult for San Francisco, but the blowout win over the Chicago Bears on Sunday has snapped a three game losing run and this is a team that still believes, despite the adversity faced.
Next up is game against the Los Angeles Rams (7-6) who are a game behind the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West, but who have won two in a row including the back and forth with the Buffalo Bills. The Rams also hold a road victory over the Seahawks and look to have plenty of momentum in their bid to return to the Playoffs, despite playing with some inconsistency for much of the season.
Matthew Stafford's experience at Quarter Back has been hugely important for the Rams and helped them come through games even playing with third or fourth string Receiving options. Going into Week 15, Stafford will be very comfortable with the top names back and there could be another boost for the Offensive unit if Tyler Higbee is activated having recovered from a serious knee injury that has kept him out all year.
The Rams make the relatively short journey on a short week, but there will be confidence coursing through the team after the way they held off the Buffalo Bills in Week 14. There was a stubbornness to persist with Kyren Williams on the ground and the Running Back did have a couple of Touchdowns while working up to 87 yards, although it took 29 carries to reach that mark.
Once again the game plan has to be to attack the 49ers on the ground and there have been one or two holes up front that has prevented the Defensive Line from clamping down on the run nearly as well as they would have liked. Running the ball is key to the while Offensive plan that the Rams have so they will look for Williams to continue to pound the rock and see if that leaves their talented Receivers to find spaces to break into out of the play-action.
An experienced Super Bowl winning Quarter Back is obviously going to help, but Cooper Kuup continues to make things easier for Matthew Stafford. He also has an improving Puka Nacua fresh off a day in which he caught 162 passing yards, and the potential return of Tyler Higbee will be a huge boost too.
However, they will be throwing against a 49ers Secondary that can make plays as long as they are able to get some pressure up front from the pass rush. Nick Bosa looks set to miss out on the short week, which will impact that pressure, but the 49ers may still feel they can rush Matthew Stafford and try and stall drives.
Injuries to the likes of Bosa have impacted the Defensive unit, but it is the other side of the ball where San Francisco have really suffered and look to continue to suffer. Already down to a third string Running Back, Kyle Shanahan is only hopeful that Isaac Guerendo is able to go after seeing both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason ruled out for the season.
Running the ball has proven to be a very effective way of attacking the Los Angeles Rams, but being down to a potential fourth string Running Back is one probelm. Arguably a bigger one for the 49ers is the continued absence of Trent Williams on the Offensive Line, a player that has paved the way for the run, and it has just made things a little tougher all around for the 49ers.
Patrick Taylor Jr would be next up for San Francisco at Running Back and had decent numbers in limited appearances for the Green Bay Packers before signing with the 49ers. He did have a Touchdown last week and the 49ers will believe the system allows them to plug in a Running Back that can exploit some of the weaknesses on the Rams Defensive Line.
It certainly helps with Brock Purdy back at Quarter Back and he is likely going to have a bit of time to make his plays down the field with the limited pass rush pressure the Rams have produced in recent games. There are key players out in the Receiving department too, but Purdy has decent chemistry with those that are going to suit up and he can help the 49ers keep the chains moving.
Los Angeles somehow won the first meeting between the Divisional rivals and they have won two in a row overall against San Francisco.
However, you do have to wonder how much intensity they can bring after putting a huge emotional effort into beating the Buffalo Bills on Sunday in Week 14. They are looking healthier at a good time, but San Francisco are desperate and the win over Chicago has just reminded the team what they can still achieve.
It could be a close, competitive game, but the feeling is that the 49ers will find a way to establish the more effective running game and ultimately Brock Purdy makes a play or two more than Matthew Stafford to help the home team pick up a very important win to keep their Playoff hopes alive.
Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans Pick: They return from the Bye Week in a really strong position in the AFC South, but the Houston Texans (8-5) would love to wrap up the Division as soon as possible.
They do hold the tie-breaker over their nearest challengers, the Indianapolis Colts, but the Texans face the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens next with both on relative short weeks and the team will be keen to enter those contests with some momentum.
It is only the second year with DeMeco Ryans as Head Coach and CJ Stroud at Quarter Back, but expectations have been raised by reaching the Divisional Round of the Playoffs last season. 2024 has been tough in terms of consistency with injuries perhaps contributing to the feeling of underachievement, but the Texans are pretty much where they would want to be with the Division close to being secured, which would mean at least one home Playoff game coming up.
They have been hit with a couple of key injuries, but the Texans should be rested and ready to go with the run towards the Super Bowl beginning in Week 15.
Next up is a home game with the Miami Dolphins (6-7) who barely kept their own post-season hopes alive in Week 14 with an Overtime win over AFC East rivals New York Jets. Even then, it is going to likely need the Dolphins to win out and hope one of the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers or Baltimore Ravens slip up in their remaining four games with the Dolphins still two games out of the Wild Card spots.
It is a big ask, but the team and the Head Coach have spoken about focusing only on this Week 15 game with the Dolphins feeling in Playoff mode already. The 1-3 run without Tua Tagovailoa looks like being fatal to their hopes of making the Playoffs and there will be some big decisions that need to be made in the off-season with plenty of Miami fans feeling the window to win a Super Bowl may already be closed for the current roster.
Tua Tagovailoa led the Dolphins to the Touchdown drive to beat the Jets in Overtime last week, and the feeling is that the pressure will be on his shoulders again. In recent weeks the Miami Offensive Line have simply not been able to help establish the run as effectively as they would have hoped and they are not expected to get a lot of change out of this Texans Defensive Line.
Quick passes have been used in lieu of a traditional running game and that has helped Miami, while Tua Tagovailoa may feel there are holes in this Houston Secondary that can be exploited. Those may look a bit bigger after news that the Texans have lost Jalen Pitre for the remainder of the season, but much is going to depend on how much time the Dolphins Offensive Line can give Tagovailoa when he steps back to throw.
If in obvious passing situations, the Houston pass rush has the potential to disrupt drives as long as they can come up and tackle efficiently when the Miami Quarter Back decides to use quick passes to negate that rush.
Miami will feel they can drive the ball up and down the field, but the Houston pass rush might be key if the team are not able to run the ball and become one-dimensional in their play-calling.
That should not be an issue for the Texans who have found a decent balance on the Offensive side of the ball, even if CJ Stroud has perhaps not been as strong as his Quarter Back year. He has not been helped with Nico Collins missing time, but the top Wide Receiver is back for Houston and Joe Mixon has shown there is plenty left in the tank at Running Back.
Unlike Miami, Houston are going to be confident in being able to hand the ball to Mixon and have him keep the team in third and manageable spots, which also means the play-action becomes a real advantage for the Texans.
This should just offer CJ Stroud the time to attack a Miami Secondary that made Aaron Rodgers look more like the Green Bay version of the Quarter Back rather than the one that has been playing for the Jets this season. With Collins and Tank Dell around, the Texans may just be able to sustain drives that much easier than the Miami Dolphins and it may end up giving the home team the edge.
There is a desperation about the Dolphins that can inspire, but it has long been said that 'needing' to win games is not exactly a glowing recommendation about strength of the team involved. Coming out of a Bye Week, the Houston Texans should be healthy and ready to compete and they may just have the balance on the Offensive side of the ball that forces Miami into positions where they have to throw.
This is where the Houston pass rush could come into their own and they can win this game and just move a step closer to locking down the Number 4 Seed in the AFC.
Washington Commanders @ New Orleans Saints Pick: They return from a late Bye Week and the Washington Commanders (8-5) remain in a very strong position to earn a Wild Card spot into the Playoffs.
Winning the NFC East looks a long shot with four weeks left of the regular season and it would need Washington to win out and hope the Philadelphia Eagles slip up. The top two teams in the Division meet in Week 16, but the Commanders have to be focused on putting some momentum behind themselves rather than any real belief in winning the Division from their current position.
The Commanders could have Marshon Lattimore suiting up for the first time since his trade from the New Orleans Saints (5-8) and they are also facing a team that has lost their starting Quarter Back again. A decision has been made to give Jake Haener his first start for the Saints, and three wins in four have not really been enough to get back into the Wild Card mix.
In saying that, New Orleans are only 2 games out of the lead in the NFC South and so there is still some hope for the Saints.
They will need a couple of upsets if they are going to surprise and win the Division and that has to begin in Week 15 against the Washington Commanders.
An inexperienced Quarter Back can be potentially problematic, but the Saints have to lean on the Offensive Line and hope they can churn out the yards on the ground. Alvin Kamara is going to be the key to their hopes, especially as a safety blanket for Jake Haener in the passing game too, but the absence of Taysom Hill is another blow for this team.
Stopping the run has been an issue for the Commanders all season and they will need to strengthen up if they are going to have a deep Playoff run. However, in this game they may not have the same respect for the passing game as they would if Derek Carr was behind Center, and creeping up to stop the run and leave the young Quarter Back in third and long has to be game plan.
Jake Haener should be well protected, which will help, but you have to believe there will be some inconsistency in the passing game with the inexperience there.
The Commanders are not exactly bringing out a Quarter Back with a host of experiences at the NFL level, but Jayden Daniels came into the League with plenty of expectations and he has largely met those.
It certainly helps playing with this Washington Offensive Line that have helped open up some big running lanes for Brian Robinson Jr. They also know that Daniels is capable of picking up chunks of yards with his legs and the recent problems the Saints have had in stopping the run may be shown up.
Jayden Daniels will be under a bit more pressure when he steps back to throw, but establishing the run should make things a bit more comfortable. The Quarter Back will also be throwing into a New Orleans Secondary that have given up some significant yards through the air in recent games and it should mean a balanced approach to the Offensive side of the ball.
This should be the key to the game and Washington should be ready to compete after the Bye Week following a crushing win over the Tennessee Titans.
It is a big spread, but the Commanders might be able to rattle the New Orleans Quarter Back into a couple of mistakes and that can see them pull clear. There is a big game on deck for the Commanders, but the focus should still be on this one as they look to keep in touch with the Philadelphia Eagles before facing them in Week 16 and that should see the road team come through with a double digit win.
New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: Two of the most disappointing teams in the AFC meet in Week 15 of the 2024 season and with elimination already confirmed.
The New York Jets (3-10) and Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10) will have big decisions to make in the off-season, although the two teams did play hard in Week 14 and that will offer the fans some encouragement.
Some, but ultimately very little encouragement in a disappointing year.
Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets have lost four in a row, but there is no suggestion that the Quarter Back will be shut down for the season. His longer-term plans are a bit more uncertain with many reports suggesting that Rodgers does not want to retire, but also does not want to continue playing for the Jets, but there were some positive signs in the defeat to the Miami Dolphins.
Facing a struggling Jacksonville team will help and the Jets should be able to get something going on the ground, even if Breece Hall is not able to suit up. While the Offensive Line has had problems in pass protection, the Jets are not going to be facing up to the fiercest of pass rushes from the Jaguars and it should give the road team a chance to sustain drives.
The Jets fans have not really had the spark at Quarter Back that they would have hoped when Aaron Rodgers returned, but he had a decent showing against the Dolphins. There is every chance that Rodgers can exploit the issues the Jaguars have had in the Secondary and that gives the road team an edge.
New York will have their first choice Quarter Back on the field, but the Jacksonville Jaguars will have to go with Mac Jones ahead of Trevor Lawrence again. The latter is out for the season, and it has been tough work Offensively without their starter.
It all begins on the Offensive Line and the issues that the Jaguars have had in trying to establish the run, something that will be very challenging against this Jets Defensive Line. This has forced Mac Jones into trying to make plays from third and long, which has been a big ask, and it has meant inconsistent Offensive play.
One of the big disappointments for the Jets has been the play of the Secondary so there may be opportunities for Mac Jones to hit some of his Receivers down the field. However, it should be noted the inconsistency displayed by the backup Quarter Back and Interceptions have been a real trouble for him, which could just give the Jets another edge.
Backing bad teams to win games is never much fun, but the Jaguars look weaker than the New York Jets and Aaron Rodgers can out-duel Mac Jones to lead his team to a rare win.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans Pick: Four losses in five games have likely ended any real hopes of working their way into the Playoffs, but the Cincinnati Bengals (5-8) kept faint dreams alive with the late win at the Dallas Cowboys.
They have to win out and hope for a lot of help from above them, but time is running out rapidly.
Next up is another road game on a short week, but the Bengals are facing a Tennessee Titans (3-10) team that have lost two in a row and who many not be massively focused on this game. That is down to the fact they finish the season with three straight Divisional games and playing spoilers for their rivals might be more important than putting in the effort needed to beat the Bengals.
The Titans will be given a boost by facing this Cincinnati Defensive unit that have struggled to make stops all season. It should allow Tennessee to establish the run and just ease the pressure on Will Levis at Quarter Back by keeping him in third and manageable spots on the field.
The jury remains out when it comes to making a verdict about Will Levis and his long-term prospects of being a franchise Quarter Back for the Titans. Will Levis will definitely appreciate the massive holes that the Bengals have continued to display in the Secondary, although the Quarter Back is expected to be under some duress at times when he steps back to throw and that could be the key to stalling some of the drives.
Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Offensive unit have not had too many issues when it comes to their performance level on this side of the ball and they should be able to keep things going against this Titans team. In recent weeks the Titans Defensive Line have just allowed teams to get something going on the ground and that can only aid the Bengals with Chase Brown hitting the Line hard and making gains on the ground.
He is also an effective weapon coming out of the backfield, while the Wide Receivers continue to shine in the system.
The Quarter Back has not always been given a lot of time in the pocket, which is one concern for the road team, but Joe Burrow has still found the big passes to keep things moving. With the team likely to be in third and manageable spots, Burrow may have more time than he has been used to and that should help the Cincinnati Bengals as they look to build up some head of steam before the end of the regular season.
It may already be too late to earn a Wild Card spot, but the Bengals can just keep their hopes alive through another week and they can beat a Tennessee team that might not be as focused as they need to be.
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: The Week 14 performance at the San Francisco 49ers was extremely disappointing, but the Chicago Bears (4-9) are a team that know big changes are coming in the off-season with a new Head Coach to be appointed. That might have factored into the performance, while some players could have been looking ahead to Week 15 and Week 16 when the Bears have an opportunity to play spoiler for the two top teams in the Division.
They will also play the Packers, but there is perhaps more on the line for the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings (11-2).
On Monday Night Football it is the Minnesota Vikings who are hosting the Bears and they still have an opportunity to not only win the NFC North, but to finish the regular season with the top Seed in the Conference.
Merely making the Playoff would have been seen as an overachievement back in September, but the Vikings are here now and ambitions of the players will never have slackened.
Sam Darnold was supposed to be a placeholder at Quarter Back, but credit has to be given to the Coaching staff in Minnesota that he has looked the franchise Quarter Back that other teams had hoped for. He is still young, so at worst case scenario for Sam Darnold is that he is in line for a big contract somewhere.
He is helped by the Coaching staff, the Wide Receivers that Minnesota have and the Vikings Offensive Line that has given Aaron Jones the spaces to burst through on the ground. All of these elements of the Offense are going to be on display, but Darnold also has to be given credit for having the courage to make the plays down the field that has sparked the team.
The Vikings should be able to get things going on the ground, which is only going to open up the dangerous passing game.
In recent games the Bears have not looked the same Defensively as injuries have piled up and a long season moves into the final run. They have not had much success in stopping the run, while the Secondary is also suffering and you have to believe the Vikings will have considerable amounts of joy when they have the ball in the hands of the Offense.
However, we saw in the first game between these Divisional rivals that Caleb Williams and the Bears can move the ball pretty well too.
The Running Backs room is banged up so it may come down to the rookie Quarter Back, but Caleb Williams will note the amount of yards this Minnesota Secondary continue to give up. The one problem with not running the ball effectively is that Williams will left operating behind the Chicago Offensive Line that has not been very good at pass protection and it is always that much more difficult throwing when under duress.
Brian Flores will also know a bit more about this rookie Quarter Back and that may help him put a game plan together to just offer a few more unfamiliar looks. The Vikings may give up a lot of passing yards, but they have also picked up the Interceptions when needed and turning the ball over here might just give them the impetus to pull away for a solid win.
The Bears did force Overtime in the first game, but it should be remembered they were down 11 points with 22 seconds left so a lot went right for Chicago at the end of that game. Another backdoor cover cannot be ruled out, but the Minnesota Vikings have momentum and they may just be a bit more keen to wrap this one up at home without the same kind of drama and a turnover or two may be what it takes to do that.
MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Houston Texans - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Washington Commanders - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
New York Jets - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bengals - 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos - 4 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Minnesota Vikings - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)
Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)
Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)
Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)
Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)
Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)
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