The release of the penultimate College Football Rankings have caused some controversy with the ACC feeling very much disrespected for a second season in a row after Alabama came out ahead of the Miami Hurricanes, despite the latter having fewer defeats on the record.
Things may yet get even worse for the Conference if the SMU Mustangs are beaten in the Championship Game and 'punished' for having the chance to compete for a Championship. Plenty of people believe a loss for the Mustangs would see them also drop behind the Crimson Tide in the final Rankings which are due out next week and the case will soon be made for another expansion of the Playoff.
Teams like the Mississippi Rebels and South Carolina Gamecocks have been lobbying for their own spot in the twelve team Playoff, but they are both set to miss out despite the talented teams they have put together.
In reality we will go into the Championship Weekend knowing virtually all but three of the teams that are expected to make the Playoffs- the winner of Boise State vs UNLV will be in, the winner of SMU vs Clemson will be in, and the winner of the Big 12 Championship will be through. The losers in all three of those Championship Games are expected to miss out with the feeling being that the nine teams that have booked spot in the Playoffs being Texas, Georgia, Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Indiana and Alabama.
Perhaps there will be a surprise or two next week, but that looks unlikely, while a a win for SMU means the Committee will be under far less pressure.
Tulane Green Wave @ Army Black Knights Pick: There may have been an outside chance for the American Athletic Conference Champion to have earned a place in the College Football Playoff, but recent losses have ended that push.
The final regular season game saw the Tulane Green Wave (9-3) lose to the Memphis Tigers as a big favourite, which ended any lingering hopes of making the twelve team Playoff. Winning a Conference Championship is still a huge achievement for any team that begins the season and that is going to be the motivation for the Green Wave who have to travel to West Point for the Championship Game.
Hosting is the surprising Army Black Knights (11-1) who bounced back from a crushing loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish by beating UTSA and earning home advantage for the American Athletic Championship Game. This is not the last game on the schedule for the Black Knights who have their big rivalry game against Navy coming up next week, but the focus right now is for Army to win the Championship in their first season in this Conference.
The loss to the Fighting Irish served as a big reminder to the Black Knights that they still have a considerable gap to bridge to the very best teams in College Football. For much of this season there has not been a big respect for the Army achievements because of the level of opponents they have faced, but they can change all that by becoming Champions on Friday.
Much like the majority of fans, the Green Wave Defensive unit have to know what to expect when the Black Knights line up with the ball in their hands.
Everything begins and ends with the running game and the concern for Army is that they have not been at their most efficient best in recent games. The key for the team is to make sure they are always in front of the chains, but this is going to be another challenging game for the Army Offensive Line against a Tulane team that have found a way to clamp down on the run.
With more investment in stopping Army up front, the Green Wave may feel they can at least force their opponent to become a little uncomfortable and have to take to the air to keep the ball moving. Bryson Daily, the Army Quarter Back, has shown he can have success with his arm rather than just his legs, but there will be pressure around him if he is throwing out of third and long spots, while the Tulane Secondary have played the pass pretty well.
Running the ball will also be a big part of the game plan for Tulane Offensive unit, but the edge may be with the road team because of the balance they have had between the air and ground attack. In recent games the Army Defensive Line have had some difficulty in shutting down the run so there is every chance to believe the Green Wave will be able to keep themselves in third and manageable spots on the field.
Motivation will be easy for Tulane having struggled to get Makhi Hughes going in the defeat to Memphis, but this may be a better match up for the Running Back and the team.
Darian Mensah should have time playing as the Tulane Quarter Back and being in front of the chains would be a huge bonus for him as he attacks this Army Secondary. Interceptions can be an issue for Mensah and he will have to be cautious about the ability of this Army team in turning the ball over, but the mistakes can be easier to avoid without the pass rush pressure and not having to take too many risks to keep the team moving.
The balance Offensively is going to make a difference and you can understand why Tulane have been set as the road favourite, especially as they can be considered the second best team that Army have faced this season.
Army will be motivated to show they are as good as the record would suggest and to show they can compete with better teams after being crushed by the Fighting Irish. They will be disciplined, which makes them a tough out, but the Tulane Green Wave are experienced at taking part in the American Athletic Championship Game and that can help them on their way to a win and a cover.
UNLV Rebels @ Boise State Broncos Pick: They begun the season with three straight wins and there was a lot of excitement around the UNLV Rebels (10-2) before a surprising announcement that Quarter Back Matthew Sluka was going to leave the team. The decision was made regarding payments that was owed to him and Sluka has ensured that he can play for another College Footbal team next season.
In his place, Hajj-Malik Williams should be given a lot of credit for the performances at Quarter Back that have steadied the ship for the Rebels and now offered them one more big opportunity to make 2024 a season that the fans could not have imagined.
Hajj-Malik Williams has over 1700 passing yards with 17 Touchdowns and 4 Interceptions on the season and has led the Revels to a 7-2 record. He will be looking to help UNLV earn some revenge on Friday in the Mountain West Championship Game in this rematch with the Boise State Broncos (11-1) having been beaten at home by then in a tight, competitive game at the end of October.
Ten straight wins has put Boise State on the brink of not only making the College Footbal Playoff, but to earn a Bye through to the Quarter Final. They are the favourites to beat the Rebels again and win the Mountain West Championship, but the Broncos will also have a big respect for what is in front of them.
When the Broncos have the ball, it is going to be a battle of wills at the Line of Scrimmage- Travis Hunter is the leading contender to win the Heisman, but the Broncos have been making plenty of noise about Running Back Ashton Jeunty who has dominated on the ground behind the Boise State Offensive Line.
Ashton Jeunty had 128 yards and a Touchdown on the ground in the first meeting with the Rebels, but it was a grind which is a testament to the strength that UNLV have shown on the Defensive Line. Down the stretch of the regular season, the Rebels have really been clamping down on the run and they will certainly feel having any kind of authority of Jeunty will give them a good chance of earning the upset.
Stopping him compltely is unlikely, but there may be a bit more pressure on Maddux Madsen to do a bit more out of the Quarter Back position than handing off to his star Running Back. He has been efficient with his play and Madsen had a solid outing in helping the Broncos edge past UNLV on the road earlier this season.
The Line of Scrimmage is going to be a big factor on the other side of the ball too and that is because the Rebels Offensive Line have a tough task in establishing the run against this Boise State Defensive Line. It was only the running ability of Hajj-Malik Williams that helped the Rebels get things going on the ground in the first meeting, but you have to believe Boise State will have a spy on the Quarter Back and the traditional run game may struggle.
In saying that, Williams might have a stronger game throwing the ball considering some of the holes that have been evident in the Broncos Secondary. The expectation is that the Quarter Back is going to have some time in the pocket and Hajj-Malik Williams will be confident having led the Rebels to as much success as he has in difficult circumstances.
Last season the Boise State Broncos did crush the UNLV Rebels in the Mountain West Championship Game and that was on the road, but there is a lot more on the line for the favourites in this one. Both teams know a win will take them into the College Football Playoff, but the expectation is on the shoulders of the home team and this UNLV Rebels team are competitive enough to keep this one close.
Can the Rebels earn the upset? They were only beaten by five points when the teams met at the end of October and the Offensive unit may be even more comfortable with their current Quarter Back. That should help, but the Broncos have home advantage and ultimately it may see them just about come out on top and book their place in the College Football Playoff.
Arizona State Sun Devils vs Iowa State Cyclones Pick: The expansion of the College Football Playoff meant every then Power 5 Conference would see their Champion make the final twelve teams. The collapse of the Pac-12 changed things a little bit, but the Big 12 Championship Game offers a big opportunity for the Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) or the Iowa State Cyclones (10-2).
A Conference that has lost powerhouses like the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns proved to be a fight until the end and the permutations left Colorado and BYU on the outside of the Championship Game, despite the top four all finishing with 7-2 Conference records.
That is not going to be something that bothers the two teams that will be playing in Dallas on Saturday with Iowa State and Arizona State both feeling pretty confident about their chances of making it through to the Playoff. Not many expected this kind of season from the Arizona State Sun Devils having moved from the Pac-12 after a disappointing 2023, but fight straight wins have gotten them into the Big 12 Championship Game.
It is three straight wins for the Iowa State Cyclones who have already made their mark on history having become the first team to ever win ten games in a single season for this school. They are now chasing a first Championship in over 110 years and a win for the Cyclones would see them earn a spot in the new look post-season, which would have been the aim when beginning the season with seven straight wins.
The Cyclones will be keen to establish the run against this Sun Devils Defensive Lie if only to give the team some balance Offensively, but the actual success of this Championship Game is going to come down to the performance of Quarter Back Rocco Becht who has played well enough to join Brock Purdy on an exclusive Iowa State list.
He has over 3000 passing yards for a second time in the Cyclones uniform, which is something that only Purdy had achieved previously, and Rocco Becht will be confident in his abilities having put up 20 Touchdown passes with 8 Interceptions. However, this Sun Devils Defensive unit is not just pretty good at stopping the run, but have played the pass well too and they are a team that will jump into routes and turn the ball over.
in a game that is expected to have tight margins, those turnovers could be key, although Arizona State will have a very healthy respect for the ability of the Wide Receivers that the Cyclones will trot out onto the field.
There will be some challenges for Iowa State when they have the ball, even with the strong passing game they have shown for much of the season. And there is certainly going to be a big test for the Cyclones on the other side of the ball where their character and grit will be tested by the Arizona State Offensive Line.
Cam Skattebo has been the star of the Arizona State Offense and has piled up almost 1400 yards on the ground with 17 Touchdowns rushed in. The Offensive Line is obviously a big help to those numbers and the Sun Devils could be very excited about facing the Cyclones Defensive Line which has struggled to deal with the ground attacks all season.
Controlling the clock and wearing down the Defense with power running is going to be the plan for the Arizona State Sun Devils, but don't ignore the passing game and the threat that Quarter Back Sam Leavitt offers. He has close to 2500 passing yards despite having to overcome a rib injury and the Sun Devils were making some big plays through the air down the stretch.
Iowa State's Secondary have decent numbers, but some of that is down to the fact that teams have been able to pound them on the ground, while Arizona State's top Receiver is out. That is going to be a blow to the narrow favourite, but the Sun Devils still look the most likely winner and College Football Playoff team out of the two competing.
Both are going to be feeling confident, but the feeling is that the Cyclones may be facing a tougher Defensive unit that matches up pretty well with them.
Add in the struggles to stop the run all season and it is hard to see how that changes in the Big 12 Championship Game, which should mean the Sun Devils are moving the ball with plenty of consistency. That could be key to this big game for both teams as they push for their place in the College Football Playoff, and Arizona State may just edge it to cement what has been a special, unexpected season with more to come in December.
Texas Longhorns vs Georgia Bulldogs Pick: A couple of weeks ago it was suggested that some of the top SEC teams that had already suffered multiple defeats would be better off missing out on the Championship Game. However, the Alabama Crimson Tide and their three losses have been slotted into a position where they look certain to take part in the Playoff and so the concern about falling out of the twelve team post-season is not going to be a factor in this one.
Instead the Texas Longhorns (11-1) and Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) can play for the SEC Championship knowing they will have a big achievement in being crowned Champions and will also earn a Bye through to the College Football Playoff Quarter Final.
The losing team will be involved in the First Round, but neither team will be thinking about losing in a rematch of a regular season game that was won on the road by the Georgia Bulldogs.
It was a game that saw too many errors from both Offensive units and the feeling is that the one that cleans up those mistakes the best will come out on top.
Georgia won their final regular season game against rivals Georgia Tech, but needed EIGHT Overtimes to do that and you do have to wonder what kind of impact that is going to have on their performance just several days later. It really is an unprecedented circumstance, even if winning means they will have a spring in their step, and the Bulldogs will be well aware that this is a much tougher test all around.
Carson Beck is in good form at Quarter Back, but he will have a lot to prove having thrown 3 Interceptions in the win over the Longhorns two months ago. He was well protected by his Offensive Line, which is going to be tested by the Longhorns pass rush, but Beck was inefficient having thrown the ball 41 times for the 175 passing yards produced.
The Quarter Back would love the Offensive Line to find a way to establish the run and leave him in third and manageable spots, but running against the Texas Defensive Line has been difficult all season. The Bulldogs did pretty well on the ground in the first game against Texas and they will be hoping they can replicate that and keep Carson Beck out of situations where he has to test this Secondary by holding onto the ball longer than usual.
The Bulldogs will feel they showed enough in the first game to have the confidence to take on the Longhorns again, especially if Carson Beck plays a cleaner game. They will look to run the ball and just keep things grinding out and making sure the Texas Offensive unit is left to cool off on the sidelines.
Running the ball is also going to be important for the Texas Longhorns, especially seeing the successes that the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets were able to have on the ground last week. In the game hosted by the Longhorns, the Offensive Line were not able to exploit the Bulldogs, but they may feel they are playing them a better time now and keeping Quinn Ewers in third and manageable is just as important for them as it is for Carson Beck and the Bulldogs.
For some of the issues the Bulldogs have had in controlling the run, the Secondary continues to play at a decent level and there has been an underwhelming passing game in Texas in recent games. Quinn Ewers is trying to be a little more careful with the ball, which is very important in these huge SEC games, and you have to believe that Texas will not want to give too much away if they can help it.
Instead the plan may be to have the team operating out of third and manageable and for the Quarter Back to get the ball out of his hands and to his playmakers as soon as possible.
Picking a winner is difficult, especially after the way the regular season ended for the Georgia Bulldogs and what kind of energy has been sapped. However, the win in the regular season gives them confidence and this could end up being a game where the teams are looking to avoid giving much away to the other.
The lean will be on the rushing attack and that could end up shortening the game, which has made the total line look a touch on the high side.
It is much lower than when the teams met in October and they combined for 45 points that day- you have to feel that the focus is to limit mistakes this time and both teams will want to pound the rock rather than looking for the Quarter Back to make quick strike throws down the field.
With the College Football Playoffs coming up pretty quickly, the focus could quickly turn to that if a team falls too far behind and then it will be about limiting injuries and not giving away plays that can be used to surprise opponents. The SEC Championship Game does look a good one on paper, but one that may not offer up as many points as this total would suggest.
SMU Mustangs vs Clemson Tigers Pick: The upset suffered by the Miami Hurricanes in Week 14 has cost them not only a place in the ACC Championship Game, but also the College Football Playoff if the latest Rankings are anything to go by.
It leaves the SMU Mustangs (11-1) and Clemson Tigers (9-3) fighting it out for the Championship and a place in the twelve team Playoff.
Controversy could perhaps strike if the Mustangs were to lose- there is a real feeling that the team that loses this one will be left out of the Playoff and that despite the fact that SMU finished the regular season with two fewer losses than the Alabama Crimson Tide. There is plenty of lobbying happening behind the scenes by the ACC, a Conference that feels let down already having seen the unbeaten Florida State Seminoles left out of the four team Playoff last season.
That disappointment was furthered by seeing where the Hurricanes were Ranked following a second loss of the season and having the Mustangs punished for losing in the Conference Championship Game when Alabama failed to make the SEC Championship Game would sting.
Fans of the Mustangs will be hoping that their team can focus on simply winning and crowning themselves ACC Champions. They have not had the most taxing of schedules, which is something the Committee may hold against them if losing to the dangerous Clemson Tigers, especially with Clemson way down the Rankings after losing to South Carolina in their last regular season game.
Dabo Swinney has guided the Tigers to National Championship success before and the opportunity to reach the Playoff will be one that they will be very keen on taking. The upset of the Hurricanes opened the door for Clemson and they have a team that will feel they have 'nothing to lose' having expected the season to be almost over in terms of their major goals.
This is going to be one of the toughest tests that the Mustangs Defensive unit have faced all season, but SMU have plenty of motivation to prove how good they are. The Defensive Line has been one that has clamped down on the run and the Line of Scrimmage looks like being a big part of what will happen on this side of the ball.
Clemson will want to run the ball and keep Cade Klubnik in third and manageable spots and they have been pretty good at getting the Offensive Line to push forward and create running lanes. This will be very important to negate the powerful pass rush that the Mustangs have put together in recent games and just ensure the Quarter Back is not having to allow routes to develop down the field.
Over the course of the season there have bene opportunities to throw well against this SMU Secondary so Klubnik is going to be confident he can have another big game. However, the Mustangs are playing with a different confidence level now and you have to believe they can rattle Cade Klubnik with the pressure up front and that could lead to stray passes to stall drives.
The Mustangs will also want to show they belong in the Playoff with a big performance from the Offensive unit, one that may make up for any defeat they could potentially suffer. The Committee have made it clear that the ACC is not seen as strong as the SEC and so the 8-0 regular season record means little when it has not been build on teams that are Ranked highly by the Playoff Committee.
Losing to a team significantly lower in the Rankings will hurt SMU, but they will want to show they can compete with a school that has regularly played in the post-season and won National Championships.
Kevin Jennings has had a strong year at Quarter Back and his dual-threat capabilities are going to be important for the Mustangs- they have not run the ball as well in recent games, but they are facing a Clemson Defensive Line that has not played Quarter Backs with Jennings' ability all that well and who have struggled to deal with the rush.
Playing in front of the chains is going to be massive advantage for the SMU Offensive unit and there are one or two holes in this Tigers Secondary that can be exploited. It will just force the Tigers to slow the pass rush a touch, while the SMU Offensive Line have been good enough to give Kevin Jennings enough time to find spaces down the field.
Turnovers will be important in this game, but there is a feeling that the SMU Mustangs are better than some people are willing to give them credit for. They have come through all of their challenges in the ACC and even the narrow defeat to the BYU Cougars is not that bad considering how close they came to playing in the Big 12 Championship Game and potentially making the Playoffs themselves.
You know the experience of the Clemson Coaching staff is going to make this a real test, but it is one that SMU can come through and book their place in the College Football Playoff for the first time.
Oregon Ducks vs Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: The move from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten looked to be a big test for the Oregon Ducks (12-0), especially with the likes of the Ohio State Buckeyes and defending National Champions Michigan Wolverines involved. However, internally, the Ducks felt confident about playing with the teams in this Conference, one that is likely going to be sending four teams to the twelve team College Football Playoff.
The Ducks would love to move into the Playoff as the unbeaten Big Ten Champion, which would come with the Number 1 Seed and a Bye through to the Quarter Final.
They face the Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) in Indianapolis in the Conference Championship Game, a surprise after the Ohio State Buckeyes were upset by the Michigan Wolverines in Week 14.
All credit to James Franklin and his Nittany Lions who have four straight games since losing to the Buckeyes and who are going to be playing in the College Football Playoff for the first time, even if they were to lose this Championship Game.
The Nittany Lions will not be thinking about losing with the players seeing the chance to perhaps steal the top Seed for themselves as the Big Ten Champion.
It is also a big 'prove it' moment for James Franklin who has a really poor record Coaching Penn State against top 10 Ranked teams. And make no mistake, this is going to be a huge challenge for the Nittany Lions Offensive unit that scored 13 points against the Ohio State Buckeyes and now take on an Oregon Defense that has played at a consistent, high level all season.
Running the ball against the Ducks Defensive Line has proven to be a tough task for most opponents they have faced this season and the Nittany Lions will know how important it is to try and establish the run. In the main it will be to make things easier for Drew Allar at Quarter Back and not have him behind the chains and then trying to allow Receivers to make their way down the field while trying to avoid a fierce Oregon pass rush.
Throwing against the Oregon Secondary would be challenging without the pressure, but it becomes all the tougher if in third and long and the Ducks knowing what to expect. Drew Allar has perhaps not been as strong at Quarter Back as Penn State may have hoped with just shy of 2700 passing yards and 18 Touchdown passes thrown, and so the key for the Nittany Lions is to not put him under the kind of pressure where he feels he needs to make the big plays to keep things moving.
At the same time, it will also be a big test for the Oregon Offensive unit when going up against the Penn State Defense that has been Ranked amongst the very best in College Football.
There is a similar challenge set for the Oregon Offensive Line, which has been very good at establishing the run but which will have rarely faced a Defensive Line like the one that the Nittany Lions bring onto the field. Winning at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball is going to be the key to the outcome of this Big Ten Championship Game.
Even if the Ducks are behind the chains, they may have a bit more belief in Dillon Gabriel at Quarter Back compared with how the Nittany Lions feel about Drew Allar.
This is a very experienced Quarter Back and Gabriel has over 3200 passing yards with 24 Touchdown passes to his name and it does feel there are one or two holes that he could exploit with the talented playmakers around him. Once again, throwing out of third and long will be challenging considering the pass rush pressure that Penn State have generated and a ball-hawking Secondary that loves to pick off passes, but Gabriel's experience has been key for Oregon.
This does look like a good Big Ten Championship Game and the Conference is going to be sending some quality teams to the College Football Playoff with every chance that one goes all the way to become National Champions. Right now the most likely is the Oregon Ducks and they can wrap up an unbeaten season to become Big Ten Champions before moving into the Playoff with a bit more consistent play coming from the Quarter Back.
The Oregon Offensive and Defensive Line may have narrow advantages against their opposite number in this one and James Franklin's poor record against top opponents in College Football cannot be ignored. It may not be a really high-scoring game with the Defenses that are heading onto the field in Indianapolis, but the Ducks have the edge and may have enough to match the Buckeyes margin of victory against Penn State.
MY PICKS: Tulane Green Wave - 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
UNLV Rebels + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Arizona State Sun Devils - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns-Georgia Bulldogs Under 50.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
SMU Mustangs - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Week 14: 6-2, + 3.50 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)
Week 13: 4-4, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 12: 3-6, - 3.23 Units (9 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
Week 11: 1-5, - 4.15 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 4.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 57.86% Yield)
Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)
Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
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