Three weeks of the NFL regular season remain and the threads over this Christmas period will not be featuring much more than the selections.
We are at that time of the season when teams will begin to think ahead about what is to come and that could see players rested or focus lost if motivation is not as high as it could be.
It is something to consider when making your selections ahead of another very busy and crucial week of games.
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Teams are securing their places in the post-season as we move into the final three weeks of the regular season and both the Houston Texans (9-5) and Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) are secured as Division Champions.
That means a top four Seeding is in the bag, but that does not mean that all ambitions for the regular season have been met.
For the Chiefs it is all about holding off the Buffalo Bills for the Number 1 Seed in the AFC, which could be huge as Kansas City look to win yet another Super Bowl. Earning the Bye through the Wild Card Round is a huge boost, as is having home field advantage right through to the Super Bowl, and Kansas City need two more wins to secure the top Seed.
Winning out is perhaps not so meaningful for the Houston Texans, although there is still an opportunity to move into the Number 3 Seed that should give the team something to play for. The Texans have won three of their last four games and they are looking for some momentum after an inconsistent season that has perhaps not lived up to the expectations that Houston were managing heading into the season.
Injuries have played a part in that, but the Texans do have an opportunity to produce a couple of big wins to give the team real belief entering the Playoffs.
This is going to be a test for CJ Stroud and the Houston Offensive unit, but there have been some signs that the Kansas City Chiefs are not playing as well on the Defensive side of the ball as they had been. A team that does want to establish the run, Houston have an opportunity to do that against this Chiefs Defensive Line which has just struggled a little bit in recent games.
With a player like Joe Mixon, the Texans can put CJ Stroud and the Offensive unit in a position to use their Wide Receivers to stretch the field. It will also be important to just offer the Quarter Back enough time to make those plays down the field and slow down this Kansas City pass rush and Houston can keep their hopes of finishing as the Number 3 Seed alive.
The Houston Texans know all about how a season can change thanks to injuries, and the Kansas City Chiefs must be extremely grateful that Patrick Mahomes has avoided a significant injury of his own. Things did not look that good in Week 15 when Mahomes was forced out of the game and he did not walk with his full weight on his ankle at the end of the win over the Cleveland Browns, but has been in practice this week.
Andy Reid will not take any chances with the health of his Quarter Back, but Mahomes is set to start and try and help Kansas City secure that top Seed. They do have a capable backup in Carson Wentz, but Patrick Mahomes is a different level of Quarter Back and the Chiefs will go as far as he can take them.
They will need Patrick Mahomes to be at his best with the Chiefs unlikely to have a lot of success running the ball against this Houston Defensive Line. And it is also very important for Mahomes to have his wits about him when dealing with the Houston pass rush, one that is likely to be very effective if they can keep the Chiefs behind the chains.
Throwing out of that pressure will be difficult, although Patrick Mahomes is set to have Marquise Brown available for the first time and that just gives the Chiefs another serious weapon.
Early chemistry issues may be expected, but the Chiefs will be able to have some success throwing into the Secondary, although it is perhaps going to lead to yet another close game involving Kansas City.
The Chiefs have dominated the recent head to head, but this game is expected to be close and competitive and Houston might just be getting enough points on the spread to make them the right team to back. For much of the season Kansas City have been playing close games, even if they win more often than not, and the slight concern about the full health of Patrick Mahomes makes it tough to believe that this one will not play out in a similar way.
Houston look to have turned a corner in recent weeks and have closed out the AFC South and they will be looking to just show what might be to come in January in the Playoff.
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: Two of the AFC North teams are heading to the Playoffs and it will be a big disappointment for fans of Cincinnati Bengals (6-8) and Cleveland Browns (3-11) that they have fallen way below the expectations of the teams back in September.
Injury has not helped, but the Browns are officially eliminated and the Cincinnati Bengals Playoff hopes are now on life support. With three games left, even winning out may not be enough for the Bengals with the maximum number of wins being nine and the three teams occupying the Wild Card spots already at that mark.
However, you have to credit the Bengals for still playing with focus and they are looking for a third win in a row. It is important for Head Coach Zac Taylor, whose own position has to be questioned, and winning out to finish with a winning record will at least give him something to counter with when the decision about his future is made.
The Bengals still have special talents on the Offensive side of the ball and Tee Higgins is still showing out to win a new contract, either here or with another team. Joe Burrow at Quarter Back has been well supported by Ja'Marr Chase, while Chase Brown has given the Bengals a real threat out of the backfield and it may be tough for the Cleveland Browns to find the motivation here.
Cleveland have lost three in a row and have struggled to contain the Offensive firepower that the likes of the Los Angeles Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs have brought onto the field. It makes it even tougher to believe in them when thinking the Chiefs played with Carson Wentz for plenty of snaps last week and Joe Burrow and company could put the Browns in a tough spot.
To make it tougher for the road team, another Quarter Back change has been made with Jameis Winston replaced by Dorian Thompson-Robinson.
It is the kind of decision that may say to many inside and outside of the building that the Browns are perhaps positioning themselves for a top NFL Draft Pick next year. Dorian Thompson-Robinson will have something to say about that and the Quarter Back is facing a Cincinnati Defensive unit that have been destroyed by injury and with issues struggling any opponent that has faced them.
Teams have found a really good balance against Cincinnati and Thompson-Robinson is a dual-threat from the Quarter Back position and will not hesitate to tuck the ball and run down the field. He should have support from the Offensive Line against this Bengals team that have not played the run or pass very well and Dorian Thompson-Robinson can have success by operating in front of the chains.
However, the Bengals are a team that will bring some pressure up front if the Browns are ever behind the chains and needing to throw down the field. This is where things could potentially get away from Cleveland considering the turnovers that the Cincinnati Secondary have been able to create in recent games.
It has been a long time since the Bengals have beaten Cleveland twice in the same season, but the Offensive unit gives them a chance to do that. If they can move a couple of scores ahead and just force Cleveland to have to take to the air to keep up on the scoreboard, things could spiral out of control for the Browns and it could lead to a big enough win to cover this spread.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders Pick: Sweeping a Divisional rival is never easy in the NFL, but that is what the Philadelphia Eagles (12-2) will be aiming to do when visiting the Washington Commanders (9-5).
We know the Philadelphia Eagles will be returning to the Playoffs in a season where Head Coach Nick Sirianni has been seemingly under pressure throughout. Last season was a disappointment for the Eagles when beaten early in the post-season, but we are not that far removed from Philadelphia making the Super Bowl and Sirianni has deserved his chance.
His team have had some tough moments, but are motoring now and look like they have the confidence to make a real impact in the post-season. The first ambition is to look after the NFC East with a win on Sunday, but the Detroit Lions were beaten by the Buffalo Bills last week which means the Number 1 Seed in the Conference is now in play for the Eagles.
The Eagles are finishing up with three Divisional games, but winning out will put them in a very strong position to secure the top Seed and that is going to be focus.
For the home team, you would think nine wins would put Washington in a really good place when it comes to earning a Wild Card spot, but that is not the case. The NFC North has been really strong and the Commanders are only 1 game ahead of the Seattle Seahawks and 2 games ahead of the Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals as far as the final Wild Card place goes.
Back to back wins have just calmed things down for Washington after previously losing three in a row, but there is work to do and this is a tough match up for them against a motivated rival.
Jayden Daniels has to be given respect for the level produced in his rookie season, but wins over Tennessee and New Orleans will not have prepared him fully for this rematch. There was not a lot happening for Washington in the defeat in Philadelphia and finding spaces to exploit against this Eagles Defensive unit is going to be tough.
The Commanders will hope to use the Offensive Line to get things going and they have been able to establish the run effectively in recent games, while the Quarter Back is capable of moving the chains with his legs. However, this is an Eagles Defensive Line that have clamped down on teams up front and they will certainly feel they can do enough to force Jayden Daniels to have to step back and throw into perhaps the best Secondary in the League.
Pressure can be generated up front to aid the Defensive Backs, while Daniels is just going to have to be careful with where he throws the ball having been guilty of a couple of turnovers of late. The Commanders will be well aware that they need to play a clean game if they are going to earn the upset, but it will be tough to move the ball with a lot of consistency when they have the ball in their hands.
A healthier looking Philadelphia team will certainly believe they can have another efficient showing against this Commanders team having piled up 434 yards in the first game and with an almost perfect split between passing and rushing.
Recent games have been better as far as the Washington Defensive Line are concerned, but they have not really gone up against an Offensive Line like the one that the Eagles have thrived behind. Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts can both combine for big yards on the ground, while the latter has shown off his ability when dropping back to throw as he helped Philadelphia keep their winning run going last week.
Despite their strong run, there were reports that Jalen Hurts and Wide Receiver AJ Brown were not on the same page, although that was anything but the case in their Week 15 win. They can combine to get Washington problems in the Secondary and the balance that Philadelphia have with their play-calling will make it tough for the Commanders to keep this much closer than when the teams met earlier in the season.
The money has piled in on the Eagles which has moved the spread past a key number, which has to be a disappointment, but they still look the right side to back in this NFC East Divisional contest. You have to expect Washington to have learned plenty from the first game against the Eagles, but they are not quite at that level and Philadelphia's momentum can take them to a win by around a Touchdown in Week 16.
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers Pick: Time is getting very close to the end for the Arizona Cardinals (7-7) as they look to force their way into the NFC Playoffs and they need to build on their big Week 15 win over the New England Patriots. This is a chance to put some momentum behind themselves ahead of two Divisional games to conclude the season and the Cardinals cannot afford any more slips as they head into the Eastern Time Zone for this game.
Next up is the Carolina Panthers (3-11) who have lost four in a row after showing some positive signs in the middle of the season.
Bryce Young has shown enough to believe he deserves another year growing in the system with the Panthers and this is a Defensive unit that he can test.
It would be a positive if the Panthers Offensive Line can find a way to establish the run- the problem is not being able to do that against this Cardinals Defensive Line, but the season has been a long one and Carolina have struggled to really get things going on the ground in their recent outings.
The Quarter Back can use his legs to help, and keeping the team in front of the chains is going to be key. If that happens, Bryce Young should be able to have some success throwing against an Arizona Secondary, although being behind the chains would mean having to deal with pass rush pressure.
This is the pressure that can lead to mistakes, which have been an issue for Bryce Young, and the Carolina Panthers have to show there is still some fight left and they are not distracted by games coming up against Divisional rivals to close out the season.
We are seeing the final Carolina home game of the season so you have to believe that is a factor when it comes to motivation, but playing spoiler for Tampa Bay or Atlanta may bring more more than anything else.
The early kick off time is a concern, but the Cardinals should be pretty happy with what they need to do in this one- they are facing a Carolina Defensive Line that has been worn down and been allowing huge yards on the ground, so it is expected to be a game in which James Connor and Kyler Murray can have big numbers.
Arizona's Offensive Line have really powered the run game and they should be able to do the same here, and that is going to put the Cardinals in a strong position to win and cover.
Kyler Murray has been well protected when he has stepped back to throw, and there are some decent Receivers around him to make the plays down the field. With his ability to scramble and just create some panic, Murray should be able to put the Arizona Cardinals in a position to keep their Playoff hopes alive and they have the capabilities of covering this number.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears Pick: They kept fighting, but it was a damaging loss for the Detroit Lions (12-2) against the Buffalo Bills having lost some key players to injury. The last month has seen a number of players go down, which has just dented some of the enthusiasm of the Lions fans in booking trips to the Super Bowl, and there is work for Detroit to do if they are going to earn a Bye through to the Divisional Round.
They hold a narrow edge over the Philadelphia Eagles for the top Seed in the NFC, but the Lions are still not in control of the NFC North, which is a testament to the level being produced by the Minnesota Vikings.
Motivation is not going to be hard to find when facing a Divisional rival, and especially not after losing in Week 15. Great teams have shown a resiliency to overcome losses and bounce back immediately and this Detroit Lions team are still deserving a lot of respect, even with some important members of the team on the sidelines on both sides of the ball.
David Montgomery has been ruled out, although Jahmyr Gibbs is more than a capable replacement and the Lions should still enjoy plenty of success on the Offensive side of the ball. Things have been tough Defensively for the Chicago Bears over the last few weeks and Gibbs has shown the kind of burst to really rip out some big gains on the ground to put the Lions in a strong position.
It will all be good for Jared Goff at Quarter Back who is playing a Bears Secondary that has struggled to make the plays needed to stall drives in recent games. There are plenty of talented playmakers for Goff to target and the Lions should be able to keep things moving, even if they are not as strong outdoors as they are inside of a Dome.
Since pushing Detroit on Thanksgiving Day, Chicago have struggled Offensively and there were one or two concerns about Caleb Williams at the end of the latest loss to the Minnesota Vikings. It is a short week, but the rookie Quarter Back is expected to suit up and may enjoy a bit more success against an injury hit Detroit Defensive unit.
He might be aided by a stronger running game than has been evident in recent games and that will give the Chicago Bears a chance to control the clock and allow the Lions Offense to stay cooling off on the sidelines. Being in front of the chains is important for Caleb Williams so he is not being pressurised into forcing throws into tight spots, while it will just ease any pressure around him thanks to this banged up Offensive Line.
Any mistakes and being behind the down and distance will put Caleb Williams under pressure, but there are holes to exploit in this Detroit Secondary. It is a long season for any player coming out of College Football and that has perhaps contributed to Williams' recent performances with the physical wear and tear building up, but he should be able to make some plays much as he did on the road against the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day.
Being on the short week is going to be tough and it should be noted that Detroit had over 100 yards more than Chicago in the first meeting and just lost their focus.
That is unlikely to happen again and especially not after losing in Week 15, and the Lions can take advantage of the fact that the Bears are playing on a short week by coming through with a win that sees them cover this mark too.
MY PICKS: Houston Texans + 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bengals - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Arizona Cardinals - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Week 15: 6-2, + 3.37 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42.13% Yield)
Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)
Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)
Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)
Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)
Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)
Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)
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