I hope everyone enjoys the festive period with families- the NFL Week 17 Picks will be added to this thread through to Monday with a fuller thread for the final week of the regular season.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: Christmas Day landing on Wednesday might have given the NFL some pause for thought about continuing with their relatively new tradition, but they have scheduled a couple of games by having four teams play one another on Saturday in Week 16 and then switch opponents for this Week 17 outing.
On Saturday, the Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) were able to hold off the Houston Texans, but it was a tougher night for the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) who were crushed by the Baltimore Ravens. So both of these teams will enter this Christmas Day contest in very different moods and with their Playoff Seeding being impacted by the outcome of the game.
In reality the Kansas City Chiefs are almost there when it comes to securing the Number 1 Seed in the AFC again and earning the sole Bye in the Conference. Hosting the Playoffs gives the Chiefs a huge edge as they look to repeat in the Super Bowl again and they need either one win or one Buffalo loss in the final two weeks to secure their place.
For the Pittsburgh Steelers, back to back losses has just allowed the Baltimore Ravens to move alongside them in the race for the AFC North Divisional crown. A superior Conference record is giving the Steelers the edge in the tie-breaker, but that could all change at the end of Christmas and it is a big, big game for the Steelers.
Russell Wilson was extremely disappointed with his personal performance in the loss to the Ravens having given up a key Fumble when it looked the Steelers were going to cross over for a Touchdown. Head Coach Mike Tomlin is not concerned about his veteran Quarter Back, who has turned back the clock a little bit this season, and he expects the experience to help Russell Wilson to bounce back.
He could be helped by the fact that Chris Jones is potentially missing for the Chiefs and that may allow Wilson a bit more time to make his plays down the field, especially if George Pickens returns at Wide Receiver from an injury of his own. The Quarter Back will be well aware that this is a very strong Kansas City Defensive unit that has perhaps been the main reason the team have picked up fourteen wins in the regular season, but there are one or two holes that the Steelers have to look to exploit.
Much could come down to the will of the Pittsburgh Offensive Line who have struggled to really help get the run going in recent games, but are facing a Kansas City team that can be vulnerable on the ground. Keeping Russell Wilson in front of the chains opens things up to try and attack an underrated Secondary, while also making sure he has a bit more time in the pocket to make his reads too.
Russell Wilson has to be aware of the Kansas City ability to turn the ball over through the air and so will have to perhaps tone down the moon-ball angles at times. Being at home will help this Offensive unit get back on track after tough road losses to Philadelphia and Baltimore, but the Steelers will also need to have plenty of respect for the ability of the Chiefs Defenders.
Patrick Mahomes suffered a scare for the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 15, but looked pretty comfortable in Week 16 and will be looking to pick up from where he left off. However, there will be a huge amount of respect for some of the opponents that will be standing across the Line of Scrimmage and the Steelers are still a Defensive unit that deserves plenty of plaudits.
They remain a Defensive Line that will feel can clamp down on the run, but the key to the outcome of the game will be TJ Watt and company and whether they can challenge this Kansas City Offensive Line through the pass rush. We know that the Chiefs are a team that will look to the pass more than run, even when the game-plan looks to favour the ground game, but the Offensive Line have given Patrick Mahomes all of the time he has needed.
That strength at the Line of Scrimmage may be the ultimate factor with the Steelers Secondary banged up as we head into the final two weeks of the regular season.
His own Wide Receiver weapons are getting healthier and Patrick Mahomes has to believe he can make the plays into this Secondary that puts Kansas City into a position to win and secure the Number 1 Seed.
Opposing Mike Tomlin as an underdog is never ideal, and as a home underdog it should be even more concerning.
However, the feeling is that the Steelers have just lost a touch of momentum at a bad time and Kansas City can do enough to get past this spread line set.
Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans Pick: The win over the Pittsburgh Steelers has just given the Baltimore Ravens (10-5) the momentum to push through and win the AFC North.
Ultimately they need to win their remaining two games and hope the Steelers lose once, which is entirely possible considering the schedules left.
Players will likely have one eye on the early kickoff on Christmas Day, but the Ravens will also be asked to focus and not worry about the Half Time Show featuring Beyonce either.
Three wins in four has just pushed some momentum behind Baltimore and this is a team that feels they have been built for a deep Playoff run. Finishing up with the Number 3 Seed in the AFC rather than one of the Wild Card spots does make that task a little easier with the guarantee of at least one home game in the post-season and there is motivation there to finish strong.
The Week 17 game on Christmas Day looks to be the most challenging one left for the Baltimore Ravens as they visit the Houston Texans (9-6) on a short week. Both teams played on Saturday, but the Texans were beaten by Kansas City and their chances of improving the Number 4 Seed they hold has drastically been reduced by that defeat.
Seeding is less of a concern than losing Tank Dell for a number of months and the Wide Receiver room has taken another big knock with Stefon Diggs already sidelined. It has made things more difficult for CJ Stroud in what has been an inconsistent sophomore season in the NFL, but earning another Divisional crown and having the chance to host another Playoff game has to be considered a success.
The matchup for the Texans looks a tough one when they have the ball in their hands.
This is a team that wants to run the ball, but that has not been easy to do against the Baltimore Defensive Line and Houston have just hit a wall of late. Joe Mixon will want to remind a former AFC North rival of his talent, but the Running Back can only be as strong as the Offensive Line allows him and his bigger threat may actually be leaking out of the backfield and acting as a safety blanket for CJ Stroud in the passing game.
The Quarter Back is going to need someone to step up next to Nico Collins without Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs and it is going to be tough for the Texans to move the ball with consistency. Earlier in the season, the Ravens Secondary had not really played at a high level, but they look to be rounding into some form now and the pass rush generated up front will really help.
It is going to be a challenge for the Texans, especially on a short week, but they have signed Diontae Johnson who was recently released by the Ravens. This could be an 'x factor', but Baltimore are unlikely to be overly concerned about what Johnson can offer in this Week 17 game.
Instead the respect will be for CJ Stroud and his capabilities as a Quarter Back, but the Ravens will feel they can pressure with the Defensive unit and then use the scoreboard to create more.
A balanced Ravens Offense will feel confident in being able to do what they like on this side of the ball, even if the Texans Defensive Line have been corralling the run pretty well of late. Stopping Derrick Henry is something they have dealt with before when he was playing in the same Division, but stopping Henry AND Lamar Jackson on the ground has proven to be tough for the best Defensive Lines in the NFL and this Christmas Day game should be no different.
Everything begins with the run for the Ravens and it has opened up the passing lanes for Lamar Jackson, who should be well protected behind his Offensive Line. There are definitely areas that the Ravens can exploit in the Secondary and you have to feel the motivation edge and the balance on the Offensive side of the ball gives the road team enough advantages to cover this mark.
It is a big line when you think it is 2 points higher than Week 16 when the Chiefs hosted Houston, but the injury concerns about Patrick Mahomes contributed to the line set. Since then the Texans are even more firmly entrenched in the Number 4 Seed position in the AFC and losing Tank Dell may mean the Coaching Staff are less likely to put their best players in tough situations on the field.
With the Ravens likely controlling the clock and making some big plays at the Line of Scrimmage when Houston have the ball, the road team can win and cover in this Christmas Day game.
Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears Pick: You have to believe that the Seattle Seahawks (8-7) will still be focused in Week 17 of the NFL regular season, even if control of their Playoff destiny is no longer in their own hands.
If this game was being played on Sunday rather than Thursday Night Football, it would be one that would have to be skipped with other factors at play.
Ultimately the Seahawks know they can only make the Playoff if they beat the Los Angeles Rams in Week 18... What makes their motivation a little harder to predict in this game on Thursday is that the Seahawks absolutely need the Los Angeles Rams to lose both games left in the regular season and that makes their game against the Arizona Cardinals the only one that really matters.
Even if both the Seahawks and Rams lose this week, a Seattle win in Week 18 would see both finish with a 9-8 record and the Seahawks having the slightly stronger tie-breaker, but any Rams win in Week 17 will mean they cannot be overturned by Seattle no matter what the latter does.
With all that being said and this game being on a short week, the Seahawks should still want to give themselves momentum having lost two games in a row. Even if winning out is not enough to secure passage into the Playoff, it is important for Seattle to go into that final regular season game in a positive mindset, especially if the door has been left opened by the Rams to allow Seattle to pass them in the final standings.
It looks to be a good match up for the Seahawks against the Chicago Bears (4-11) who have lost nine in a row, including back to back blowout losses to Divisional rivals. With one more Divisional game left, the Bears are clearly going to be looking forward to the end of the season and the start of another rebuild and this looks to be a team that have just lost some heart at the end of a long regular season.
There are obviously shoots of optimism through Caleb Williams at Quarter Back, but it has become clear that the Offensive Line needs to be fixed and he still needs some support around him. The Quarter Back has been under siege far too often this season and it has not helped that the Bears have struggled to establish the run game to just ease the pressure on Williams.
It is unlukely that the Bears will get much going on the ground in this one and that is going to mean another tough day in the office for Caleb Williams. We have seen Seattle struggle a little bit in the Secondary in recent games, but those games have been against some of the best teams in the Conference and the Secondary have still stepped up at times to show the talent that Seattle have on this side of the ball.
For the main, Seattle are likely to be comfortable enough dealing with the Chicago Offensive plan, and they should be able to have their way when Geno Smith and company have the ball in their own hands.
The Quarter Back was able to suit up in Week 16 when Seattle were narrowly beaten by the Minnesota Vikings to lose control of their own destiny, but Smith played well and there should be a solid balance to the Seahawks approach. The team have powered up the run game behind this Offensive Line and should be able to keep Geno Smith in third and manageable spots, and that should just mean a comfortable night attacking this banged up Bears Secondary.
Some have suggested the Seahawks could rest key players, but the talk out of the locker room looks to indicate differently so the likes of DK Meltcalf are expected to take to the field.
This is a huge boost for Geno Smith, even as a decoy to open things up for other Receivers, and the Seattle Seahawks should find some momentum from winning this game.
All eyes will then turn to Los Angeles with the hope that Divisional rivals Arizona can upset the Rams on the road, but the focus on Thursday Night Football should see Seattle move into a position to win and cover.
Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots Pick: Elimination has been confirmed from the Playoffs as far as the New England Patriots (3-12) have been concerned for some time. However, that did not stop them giving AFC East Champions Buffalo Bills all they could handle in Week 16 and they will rematch the Bills to conclude the regular season.
It has to leave you questioning the motivation for this Week 17 game- if it was the final home game of the season, that would be something, but the Patriots finish up with a game against the Bills here and the players might not have the same amount of energy to invest in this game as they did when trying to stop Buffalo earning the Number 1 Seed in the AFC.
The Patriots can play spoiler for the Los Angeles Chargers (9-6) and force them to enter Week 18 needing to win on the road at a Divisional rival, but there may be little appetite for that from the home team.
An early Eastern Time kickoff is never ideal for a travelling West Coast team, but the Chargers beat AFC West rivals Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football in Week 16 and that additional preparation time should help. Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers Head Coach, has had plenty of success in the early Eastern kickoff slot in his previous tenure leading the San Francisco 49ers so there is little concern that Los Angeles will not be prepared well enough.
We all know that Jim Harbaugh's Football idea is to establish the run first and foremost and there have been problems for the New England Defensive Line to address. That could show up here with the Chargers expected to have success on the ground, even if both Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins are missing out.
Edwards has already been ruled out, while Dobbins is Questionable, but the Chargers should still have a bit more success on the ground considering the struggles of the Patriots.
This will be important for Justin Herbert and just allow the Quarter Back to have a bit more time to make his throws down the field, even with the Chargers being a bit inconsistent in this aspect of their game. For much of the season, the Patriots Secondary have really played pretty well and so it is key for the Chargers to ground and pound an opponent that gave plenty of themselves in the loss to the Bills.
There are problems for the Chargers to address on the Defensive side of the ball, especially with the potential Wild Card game just two weeks away. Los Angeles have struggled to stop the run too, which is a positive for New England who want to keep things as simple as possible for their rookie Quarter Back, while it will also ease the pass rush that has managed to get after Drake Maye.
Like many young, inexperienced Quarter Backs, Draye Maye has made one or two costly mistakes.
He should have some successes throwing the ball in this one, but avoiding Interceptions is key and the feeling is that the Patriots may struggle to have the same intensity as they produced in Week 16.
They are at home and that will help, but the Patriots might be a little spent in this one and that could give the rested Chargers enough of an edge to earn a win and a cover and book their place in the post-season.
Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: The likelihood of a late run into the post-season for the Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) is slim at best, but they can only give themselves an opportunity going into Week 18 by winning this game.
Ultimately the underachieving Bengals know they need to win out and earn plenty of help around the NFL, and three wins in a row has just put some momentum behind Cincinnati, even if it is perhaps too late.
One of the three Wild Card spots in the AFC has been taken by a rival from the AFC North, but the other two berths are held by two AFC West teams going into the penultimate week of the regular season. Earlier in the day the Los Angeles Chargers will be looking to wrap up their own Playoff spot, but the Bengals will keep themselves alive by beating the Denver Broncos (9-6) who were beaten by the aforementioned Chargers in Week 16.
Sean Payton has turned things around for Denver and with a rookie Quarter Back too, but there is still some work to do and this is a tough road test.
In recent games the Broncos have just struggled to really open up big running lanes, but they could get back to the ground game in this one with the Cincinnati Defensive Line continuing to have problems in containing teams.
This is so important for Quarter Back Bo Nix who will be put in a position to challenge a Bengals Secondary that have put up decent numbers during their winning run. Of course that is partly down to the poor Quarter Backs they have faced and Nix has shown he can do a bit more than the likes of Cooper Rush, Will Levis and Dorian Thompson-Robinson, especially with an Offensive mind like Payton as his Head Coach.
Denver are going to need their Offense to be operating at their efficient best, especially when facing a Bengals team that have plenty of skilful players on their side of the ball.
Tee Higgins is banged up, but Joe Burrow and company have found a way to keep the chains moving and they have put up plenty of points throughout the season to offer Cincinnati opportunities to win more games than they have. It will be on Joe Burrow's shoulders with the Broncos Defensive Line likely going to contain Chase Brown as a runner, although Brown will leak out of the backfield and likely be a very productive safety blanket for his Quarter Back.
Riley Moss is expected to be available for the Broncos, which is a huge plus for Denver's Secondary which has been exploited without him opposite Patrick Surtain II.
Even then, stopping this Cincinnati passing attack is going to be very tough and the Bengals may just have a narrow edge in this big Week 17 game.
Joe Burrow has played well considering he has been under pressure at times when he steps back to throw the ball, but the one concern has been a couple of Interceptions and Fumbles that have just held the Bengals back. He will need to play a cleaner game to ensure Cincinnati are still alive going into Week 18 in what has been a disappointing season so far and the Bengals may get the better of a potential shoot-out in this one.
You have to respect the fact that Sean Payton and his Broncos team will have a very good game-plan put together with the additional time to prepare, but the Cincinnati Bengals may just have the firepower to get the better of Denver and cover this spread set.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: They might have been eliminated before kicking off in Week 16, but the Dallas Cowboys (7-8) have continued to play hard for Head Coach Mike McCarthy even in a lost season.
Starting Quarter Back Dak Prescott has missed several weeks and top Wide Receiver CeeDee Lamb has been shut down for the season, but motivation will be easy to find over the next two weeks with Dallas potentially playing spoiler for Divisional rivals.
First up is the Philadelphia Eagles (12-3) who have likely lost their chance of earning the Number 1 Seed in the NFC after giving up a late Touchdown drive to the Washington Commanders last week. That also means the Division is still at play, although the permutations for the Eagles to fail to be crowned NFC East Champions needs a lot to go against them.
Instead the main concern will be to get Jalen Hurts healthy at Quarter Back having been knocked out of the loss to the Commanders with concussion and he is due to sit out in Week 17, Even if the Division is wrapped up, they will be keen to get Hurts on the field next week and not have his next snaps taking place in the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs, but for Week 17 it will be a banged up Kenny Pickett driving the Philadelphia Offensive unit.
In fairness to Pickett, he did not play badly when coming into the Week 16 game with the Commanders and there are plenty of talented players all around him.
A Running Back chasing history will likely be given a huge amount of the ball and Saquon Barkley will hope to put up the kind of numbers that forces Philadelphia to give him some snaps next week against the New York Giants. He needs over 250 rushing yards to earn the record, and Barkley will be leaned upon to run behind this impressive Philadelphia Offensive Line going up against a Cowboys team that have struggled to stop the run all season.
Easing the pressure on Kenny Pickett is clearly important, but it is also a sensible game plan against Dallas anyway and the Quarter Back could see the passing lanes open up to feed AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. The latter dropped a pass that would have likely led to an Eagles win last week, but there is a balance to this Eagles team that makes them dangerous.
Keeping a clean pocket will also be important to the Quarter Back because Dallas have been able to rush the passer effectively in recent games. They will be hoping that pressure up front can just force Kenny Pickett into mistakes that Jalen Hurts would perhaps avoid and that can give the Cowboys a chance to keep this competitive.
Cooper Rush will be operating the Dallas Offensive unit and he will have to be aware of the kind of standards that Philadelphia have been setting on the Defensive side of the ball.
The Cowboys have been playing pretty well of late thanks to the Offensive Line helping establish the run, but that looks like it will be much tougher to do in this game. Last week a lot had to go wrong for the Eagles to help the Commanders win that game, but even then they managed to turn the ball over a number of times and it all begins by clamping down on the run and forcing teams to try and beat them through the air.
Jayden Daniels was able to do that, but it will be tougher for Cooper Rush who is simply not as strong a Quarter Back and without his top target.
Philadelphia are set up really well to defend the pass, even when not being able to generate a host of pressure up front, and they could have the players capable of turning the ball over and giving their backup Quarter Back the extra possessions needed to secure a win and a cover.
Last week would have stung, but the Eagles can bounce back and show they are going to be a real Playoff threat with a big win over their NFC East rivals who have been hit too hard by injury and inconsistency this season.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Professional players know they are playing for their future whenever they step onto a NFL field, but there are times when management above them are making decisions that ultimately focus on the years ahead.
Fresh from scoring the Touchdown that eliminated the Arizona Cardinals from post-season play, the Carolina Panthers (4-11) have shut down Chuba Hubbard for the season. The Running Back has shown his worth to the team in 2024, but that is a decision that has not gone down very well with the fans and the Panthers might be glad to be on the road.
The travelling team will still want to show how much they have been improving and Quarter Back Bryce Young has two more games to display his talent. After a really poor rookie season and being benched in this one, Young has looked much more capable in recent weeks and the Panthers may choose to surround him with some more talent and really see what the young Quarter Back can do.
Motivation is also there to play spoiler for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7) who were beaten narrowly in Week 16 and have lost control of their own destiny.
Baker Mayfield and company need to win out and hope the Atlanta Falcons fail to win one of their remaining two games and there will be a confidence around Tampa Bay that the chips may fall their way and earn the NFC South team a home Playoff game in two weeks time.
Overlooking the Panthers would be a mistake, but Tampa Bay have to be confident they can move the ball with some consistency at home.
Teams have been able to dominate the Carolina Defensive Line in recent games and Bucky Irving may have a big game for the Buccaneers, whose own Offensive Line have been very happy to get their hands dirty in the run blocking game. The expectation is that the Buccaneers will be in third and manageable spots through much of the afternoon and this should open things up for Baker Mayfield and some of his skilled Receiving options.
Being in front of the chains just slows the pass rush pressure, while the Panthers have stronger Secondary numbers merely because teams have not needed to throw against them while the Defensive Line have struggled. This Buccaneers team have shown how good they can be Offensively during a four game winning run before losing to Dallas and Tampa Bay will believe they cover the spread through their Offensive firepower.
Scoring points is obviously important to any cover of a spread mark, but the Buccaneers do look like a team that will match up with the Panthers very well on the other side of the ball.
Even without Chuba Hubbard in the lineup, the Panthers would love to run the ball but that has been a challenge against this powerful Tampa Bay Defensive Line. With their top Running Back it would have been tough to establish the run and it feels like a game in which all of the pressure will be on Bryce Young at Quarter Back.
He can make some plays with his legs, but it will be really difficult to find any consistency Offensively if the Panthers are always behind the chains. Bryce Young will be under some duress from the Tampa Bay pass rush, while the Buccaneers Secondary have been in decent form as the regular season has wound down and this gives the home team a considerable edge.
Last week the Panthers showed they are still dangerous, but Tampa Bay are coming into this one behind a loss and will be automatically more focused in trying to keep their Playoff hopes alive. With the match up on both sides of the ball, this has the makings of a solid Tampa Bay win in the early Sunday kickoff slot and they can cover a big line with some huge play made on the Defensive side of the ball.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Moving into Week 17 of the NFL regular season, there are only five teams in the NFC that have won at least ten games and three of those are in the NFC North.
The Green Bay Packers (11-4) are going to the Playoffs, but there is still a chance fo them to improve their Seeding and they will certainly be keen to hold off the Washington Commanders for the Number 6 Seed at worst.
Motivation will also come from the fact that the Green Bay Packers have come up short against the best teams and they are looking to show they can compete before the Wild Card Round of the Playoffs begins with a road game at a Divisional Champion.
Where that will be is still up for debate and even the destiny of the NFC North is likely going to come down to Week 18- it is not only the Divisional crown on the line, but very likely the Number 1 Seed in the NFC and the Minnesota Vikings (13-2) are continuing to defy all expectations.
The Vikings have to win out if they are going to take the Division ahead of the Detroit Lions- they play before Detroit and there was some question about whether the Lions would rest their starters if the Vikings won simply as that second game between the top two in the NFC North would end up being a Divisional decider.
Minnesota will try and do their part and that is winning this game and sweeping the Green Bay Packers having won on the road when holding off a big rally from Green Bay.
Sam Darnold is going to be signing a big contract soon, but this is going to be a significant test for the Quarter Back with the pressure likely going to be on his arm and the two special Receivers he is throwing to. Aaron Jones would love to remind his former team of his abilities from the Running Back position, but the Vikings Offensive Line have not been able to establish the ground game with any consistency as injuries have piled up.
Making it tougher is trying to run against this Green Bay Defensive Line which is much stronger than previous editions when it comes to clamping down on the run.
Keeping the Vikings in obvious passing situations wil be important and allow the Packers to unleash the pass rush that has rattled Sam Darnold in recent games. Injuries on the Offensive Line have contributed to the pocket crumbling around Darnold and he has absorbed plenty of hits, which is expected to be the case when dropping back to throw against a quality Packers Secondary in this game.
Green Bay will certainly feel they can make some big plays Defensively and that will give a healthier Jordan Love an opportunity to lead the team to a big, important win.
There may be some regret that Aaron Jones is not playing in the Green Bay uniform, but Josh Jacobs can quickly make people forget with his strong performances from Running Back. He is expected to have a few more running lanes to exploit and the Packers will not shy away from driving the ball on the ground if that is what the Defensive unit is offering up.
In recent games it has been possible to push the ball on the ground against Minnesota and this is going to be important for Jordan Love, who will be offered even more time in the pocket than he has been given in recent games. In the main the Quarter Back has played with a clean pocket and there is no doubt that there are areas to attack this Minnesota team down the field.
Christian Watson could miss out, which hurts the Packers and the deep ball play, while there has to be a respect for the ball-hawking playmakers that Minnesota do have in the Defensive Back positions. However, Jordan Love has been careful with his throws and the Packers may just have the balance to 'upset' the hosts in this one, even if the overall Seeding is largely unlikely to be improved.
This has all of the makings of a top quality, Playoff-like game and the Green Bay Packers may edge to the victory as the narrow underdog.
Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Commanders Pick: No one would have expected the Washington Commanders (10-5) to challenge for a Playoff spot in 2024 under a new Coaching staff and a rookie Quarter Back. They are on the brink of confirming a Wild Card spot at the very least, while there is still an opportunity to win the NFC East and the Commanders look to have found their franchise Quarter Back.
There is so much to like about Jayden Daniels and everything he brings to the Commanders and you have to believe his experiences in 2024 will set him up for so much more to come. Washington will be looking to build the team around a Quarter Back on a rookie contract and Daniels co-ordinating a drive to beat the Philadelphia Eagles in a big spot in Week 16 can only help the Quarter Back grow further.
This is another big spot for the Washington Commanders when hosting the Atlanta Falcons (8-7) who have made a Quarter Back change and taken over as the leaders of the NFC South.
Two wins will means the Falcons are in, but one defeat opens the door for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and there is plenty of pressure on Michael Penix Jr at Quarter Back who took over from Kirk Cousins before the Week 16 crushing win over the New York Giants.
Atlanta will be hoping to keep the pressure away from Penix Jr by running the ball and the Falcons Offensive Line have been playing well down the stretch. They have a quality Running Back in Bijan Robinson and we have seen the Commanders struggle in stopping the run for much of the season.
Improvements have been made in the Secondary play, but this Falcons team have a lot of Receivers that can make plays for the Quarter Back and Drake London has been cleared to play.
Michael Penix Jr is being given plenty of good advice from veteran Kirk Cousins and he is playing behind an Offensive Line that will give him time to make plays in the pocket. Of course this is a much bigger spot than facing the New York Giants looking forward to the end of the season, but Michael Penix Jr can help the Falcons sustain some success Offensively and give the Defensive unit something to protect.
One of the reasons the Falcons are in a position to earn a Playoff spot is the big improvements made by the Defensive unit and they will need to be at their best to keep Washington quiet.
The Defensive Line have really clamped down on the run and the Line of Scrimmage looks like it is going to be keenly contested- the Commanders have Brian Robinson Jr and Jayden Daniels capable of ripping out some big gains on the ground, but there is little doubt that the Falcons have had more intensity in clamping down on the run and this could determine the whole game.
Any time the Falcons have Washington in obvious passing situations, the pass rush is likely to have a big impact on Jayden Daniels and the time he has to throw down the field. He can scramble and give himself more time, but Daniels has faced plenty of Sacks too and the Falcons can protect the Secondary by putting the Quarter Back under duress.
For all of the successes Jayden Daniels has had in his rookie season, Interceptions can be an issue and this Falcons Secondary have been picking off passes in recent games to just ensure the team is still in a position to reach the post-season.
Turnovers could be key in this game as well, but the feeling is that Michael Penix Jr and this Atlanta Falcons team can keep this one close on the scoreboard, even on a primetime spot.
Both teams should be bringing their best with so much on the line, and this could be one that goes right down to the wire with big implications around the top of the NFC.
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: The top Seed in the NFC and the Division crown in the NFC North might be decided in Week 18, but this game is played on Monday Night Football and that means the Detroit Lions (13-2) will know all of their clinching scenarios.
It was put to Head Coach Dan Campbell that he could decide to rest starters if this game is effectively meaningless- that would be the case if the Minnesota Vikings are able to beat the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. However, Campbell made it clear to the media that this is a business trip for the Lions and they will be coming out to win as they do every week.
That decision is perhaps easier to make considering how the Lions season ended last year.
They had a big lead over the San Francisco 49ers (6-9) in this Stadium in the NFC Championship Game, but the Lions allowed the home team to recover and end their hopes of making the Super Bowl. This Week 17 game is not nearly as important for the injury hit 49ers who have been eliminated from the post-season, but Detroit will not have forgotten January 2024 and they might bare their teeth.
Detroit can feel like this is a test of their Offensive game-plan and that could be important with the Playoffs now coming up very quickly.
For all of their issues this season, the 49ers Defensive unit have still played very well and so the Lions will have to be at their best to win here. David Montgomery is likely to sit out, but Jahmyr Gibbs has shown his quality at Running Back and the Lions will be looking to get the ball into the hands of their speedy superstar.
Everything begins at the Line of Scrimmage for the Lions and they will feel they can at least keep Jared Goff in third and manageable spots, which is important for the Quarter Back too. He is more than a game manager, but Goff will have respect for this San Francisco Secondary, even if they have been eliminated from the Playoffs.
The 49ers have lost a number of key players on the Offensive side of the ball, but they are facing an injury hit Detroit team and that may at least give them a chance to keep this one competitive.
Trent Williams has been ruled out for the last two weeks and that is going to hurt San Francisco with the Offensive Line not nearly as strong running the ball without the Tackle. This has been an issue for them all season with the team down to a fourth string Running Back after injuries have piled up in the backfield and it has put all of the pressure on Brock Purdy at Quarter Back.
He has been without key Receivers, but there are holes in this injury hit Lions Secondary and Brock Purdy could have a decent outing in San Francisco's last home game of the 2024 season.
However, the consistency has perhaps lacked with Purdy having to play from third and long on occasion and that is something that the Lions will look to exploit. The kicking issues are another concern for the home team and it feels like the motivation is with Detroit to just make amends for that NFC Championship Game defeat.
And if the Green Bay Packers upset Minnesota on Sunday, Detroit will be playing for a Division crown and potentially the Number 1 Seed in the NFC, which can only aid the motivation for a strong performance here on the road.
MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens - 5.5 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Los Angeles Chargers - 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bengals - 3 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 7.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Atlanta Falcons + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Week 16: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)
Week 15: 6-2, + 3.37 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42.13% Yield)
Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)
Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)
Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)
Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)
Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)
Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)
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