The first twelve team College Football Playoff Bracket will begin on Friday with the First Round games being played across a couple of days.
It is a new situation for teams involved in home games just days before Christmas, but the television companies are expecting big viewing numbers before moving into the Quarter Final and beyond.
The excitement is that the new expanded format will offer more teams an opportunity to play and the twelve teams selected all deserve their spot, even if the likes of Alabama are going to be hugely disappointed in missing out. They would have made it if SMU had won the ACC Championship Game, but that was not to be and the Mustangs were offered the final spot in the Playoff after losing narrowly to the Clemson Tigers.
Fans are looking forward to the Playoff and the new format and the Picks from the First Round games can be read below.
A new thread will be created for each Round of the Playoff through to the National Championship Game next month.
Indiana Hoosiers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: The new look College Football Playoff kicks off on Friday evening in South Bend with the First Round played over the next couple of days.
We will then move into the Quarter Final around New Year's Day before the Semi Finals and National Championship Game are played in January. The twelve team Playoff is likely to be expanded further in the years ahead, but this is a new era for College Football team and there will not have been many complaints about the twelve that are set to embark on a run towards being crowned National Champions.
That is not to say that there are not surprising schools involved and that is the case on Friday when the Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) make the 200 mile journey to South Bend to take on hosts Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1). Teams coming out of the Big Ten to compete for National honours is not the surprise, but the Hoosiers were not expected to be one of those names and have put together a special season to earn their spot.
However, there is still something for the Hoosiers to prove having come through a relatively weak schedule with the biggest game being the blowout loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes. Wins over defending Champions Michigan Wolverines and last year's Finalists Washington Huskies deserve some respect, but both of those schools have fallen off the standards set in the 2023 season and so Indiana have arguably not beaten any team of note.
This is a chance to change that narrative against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish who have overcome an upset earlier in the season to take their place in the post-season. Most impressive has been the fact that the Fighting Irish have not only beaten teams, but beaten teams convincingly and they look a real threat to have a very deep run in the Playoff.
Winning this First Round game will move the team onto a date with the Georgia Bulldogs, the SEC Champions, and the Fighting Irish are deserving favourites in this First Round match up.
It is the Defensive unit that have sparked things for the Fighting Irish, while the Offensive Line continues to bully opponents up front and that is going to be the challenge for the Indiana Hoosiers.
Credit has to be given to the Hoosiers Defensive Line for the standard of play they have set all season and even the Ohio State Buckeyes were limited to 4 yards per carry in their big win over Indiana. The Line of Scrimmage is going to see both teams looking to impose themselves when Notre Dame have the ball and a duel-threat Quarter Back in Riley Leonard can help the Fighting Irish to at least play in front of the chains.
The Quarter Back will be asked to manage the game at times and avoid the turnovers that can be such a big part of a tight match up like this one. Riley Leonard has been well protected by this powerful Notre Dame Offensive Line and he will have noted the Will Howard performance for Ohio State, although the fact is that the Indiana Secondary have played well and it will not be a game in which the Fighting Irish can expect to have sustained success.
That will mean looking to lean on the strong Defensive unit that has ground down Offenses that have struggled to find a way to move the ball with any consistency against the Fighting Irish.
One problem for Indiana is that their Offensive Line were not able to establish the run with the same kind of efficiency as they would have hoped when the quality of opponent picked up down the stretch in the regular season. Establishing the run against Notre Dame will be challenging, but the Hoosiers cannot become one-dimensional if they are going to give Kurtis Rourke the opportunity to show off his talents to the nation in a big spot.
Kurtis Rourke might have a bit more time than usual when he steps back to throw the ball down the field, even if the Indiana Offensive Line have had issues in pass protection, and that will give him some chances to make big plays. This is not an easy Secondary to face, especially with Notre Dame's ability to turn the ball over through the air, but Rourke has had a big season and can help his team.
However, it has to be noted that the Quarter Back really struggled when facing the intensity of the Ohio State Defensive unit and this is arguably the second toughest Defense he will have seen this season. It is a potential concern for Indiana and the edge in this one has to be with the home team in a Playoff setting in their tough environment created in South Bend.
An in-State rivalry will be in play here, but Notre Dame look to be the stronger team all around and they may just win at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides to earn the edge in the contest. Covering will not be easy with the line where it is, but the Fighting Irish can make some big Defensive plays to do that and move onto a date with the Georgia Bulldogs in a couple of weeks time.
SMU Mustangs @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: The new College Football Playoff format means there is unfamiliar mid-December home games to be played.
It looks like being a cold day at Beaver Stadium, which could impact the teams, but the Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) and SMU Mustangs (11-2) have plenty of motivation as they look to move through to the Quarter Final Round.
In the days of the four team Playoff, neither of these teams would have expected to be involved having failed to win a Conference Championship and with two defeats on the board, but the twelve team Playoff offers another opportunity for the teams.
The Penn State Nittany Lions have been beaten by fellow Playoff teams Oregon and Ohio State in the Big Ten this season, but those are quality defeats and home advantage looks to be important for them. Having a deep impact in the Playoff is possible with the winner heading into a Quarter Final with the Boise State Broncos, but the Nittany Lions will not want to overlook the SMU Mustangs.
They finished without the Conference Championship after losing to the Clemson Tigers, but the Playoff Committee gave the Mustangs deserved respect as they edged out the Alabama Crimson Tide for a spot in the bracket. Motivation will be easy for the players when they note they are set as a pretty big underdog for this First Round game and the Mustangs may have the Offensive power to at least keep this one competitive.
Being perfectly honest, the Mustangs do still have something to prove having competed in arguably the weakest of the four Power Conferences. There are not a lot of standout wins and the loss to Clemson will have stung as they prepare to face a tough Penn State Defensive Line.
Both teams will be challenged at the Line of Scrimmage by the Defensive Lines that the other will have on the field and that will mean the pressure is on the Quarter Backs that take to the field.
Kevin Jennings has had a strong season for the Mustangs and he has been well protected by the Offensive Line, which will offer him time to make throws into the Secondary. There are not a lot of holes to exploit, but Jennings has to be encouraged by what Oregon were able to do against Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game.
After announcing his retrun to Penn State for 2025, Drew Allar might just have a bit more support from his Offensive Line as they look to push Penn State into third and manageable spots. The Quarter Back has enjoyed a nice season and establishing the run will be key to just easing the SMU pass rush and give Allar the chance to enjoy another strong day in a big spot.
Interceptions were costly in the defeat against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game, but Drew Allar also had over 200 passing yards with three Touchdown passes and that is encouraging for the Nittany Lions. The Quarter Back will have studied the tape from the ACC Championship Game and the successes Cade Klubnik had against the SMU Secondary and it may just see this game lean in favour of Penn State.
The spread is going to be a tough one to overcome, but being at home might just see the Nittany Lions have the edge in this First Round game. The Mustangs should be able to keep things competitive, but the feeling is that Penn State will have the stronger Defensive unit on the field and ultimately they can make a play or two to just push clear in the Fourth Quarter and narrowly overcome this mark.
Clemson Tigers @ Texas Longhorns Pick: There are two losses on the record for the Texas Longhorns (11-2) and that meant failure to win the SEC Championship. Both defeats were to the Georgia Bulldogs and ultimately that has dropped the Longhorns into the Playoff First Round, while the Bulldogs have earned the Bye through to the Quarter Final.
Despite that, and some shaky Offensive play, the Longhorns have the opportunity to host the ACC Champions and Texas are a big favourite to progress past the Clemson Tigers (9-3).
Without the upset over the SMU Mustangs to win the Conference, the Clemson Tigers would not have earned a spot in the Playoff and most will believe that the the likes of the South Carolina Gamecocks, Alabama Crimson Tide and Mississippi Rebels deserved the place instead. Head Coach Dabo Swinney is not going to be interested in all that and his team have an opportunity to play in the Playoff and try and win another National Championship in Clemson.
There is no doubt that this is a huge test for the Tigers to move the ball against the Texas Defensive unit that has been amongst the very best in College Football.
Against weaker opponents, Clemson have had Offensive success, although the Tigers will point to the performance against the South Carolina Gamecocks. They did only score 14 points in that defeat, but Cade Klubnik had 280 passing yards with an Interception and facing that SEC team will offer some encouragement for the team.
However, Texas have a stronger team than the Gamecocks and they have a Defensive Line that will make it very tough for Clemson to establish the run and thus shift the pressure onto Quarter Back Cade Klubnik. Being behind the chains would mean dealing with a Texas pass rush that has harassed Quarter Backs and that only increases the pressure on Klubnik when it comes to throwing against an elite Secondary.
Avoiding turnovers will be key for the Tigers and they will also hope that the Texas Offensive inconsistency has not been resolved in the time since the SEC Championship Game.
Quinn Ewers will hope his College Football Playoff experiences can helo, but there is some pressure on the Quarter Back who has not been playing at the level that Texas expected. He is going to be healthier with the two week break between games, but the fans are going to look for Ewers to start this game efficiently.
However, the Quarter Back will be happy to have Kelvin Banks returning to the Offensive Line to offer stronger pass protection. A fully healthy Offensive Line will also mean the Longhorns can push the Tigers around up front and establish the run very effectively and this is where the Longhorns can win the game.
Moving the ball on the ground against this Clemson team that has struggled to clamp down on teams up front will just makes things that much more comfortable for Quinn Ewers and the passing game. It should mean a clean pocket for Quinn Ewers and the Tigers Secondary may not be able to force the stops if the Quarter Back does not have to throw too far to keep the chains moving.
It may eventually open things up for the deep shots and the expectation is that the Texas Longhorns will show off their gap in quality compared to the ACC Champions that have lost three games this season. The spread is pretty big and Cade Klubnik could engineer a backdoor cover, but you have to believe the Longhorns Defensive unit can make the big plays to help Texas have pushed clear enough to cover deep into the Fourth Quarter.
Tennessee Volunteers @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: Winning the National Championship would make up for the awful home loss to the Michigan Wolverines, but anything less than that may raise questions about the direction Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) are going under Head Coach Ryan Day.
Despite that defeat to the Wolverines as a three score favourite, the Buckeyes were locked into a Playoff spot and they will be looking to make amends for the defeat. If they had won, Ohio State might have played for the Big Ten Championship and the chance to earn a Bye through to the Quarter Final, but the team are hoping to move past the defeat to Michigan.
First up in the expanded Playoff is a game against the Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) who had a strong season in the SEC, but who will need more from the Offense if they are going to really challenge for a National Championship.
Defensively they have to believe they can produce similar to the Wolverines in largely keeping Ohio State out of sync and that is likely going to be key to the outcome of the game outright and especially against the spread.
There have been injuries that have impacted the Buckeyes Offensive Line and they struggled to get things going on the ground against the Michigan Wolverines. Even with the break between games, Ohio State might be asking too much to move the ball on the ground against a Volunteers Defensive Line that have been amongst the very best in College Football and so the pressure is likely going to be on veteran Quarter Back Will Howard.
Despite the injuries up front, the Buckeyes Offensive Line have given Will Howard some time to make his throws down the field and there are some very skilful playmakers around the Quarter Back. This will help, but the Volunteers are tough at all three levels of their Defense and Tennessee will certainly feel they can avoid giving up a lot of points.
It is important to do that and not force their young Quarter Back and the Offense to try and keep up on the scoreboard.
Once again the Line of Scrimmage is going to be massively important and the Volunteers would love to find a way to establish the run. The Volunteers Offensive Line have played well this season, but this is another big test for them against Ohio State who have plenty of talent on the Defensive Line.
In their defeat to the Wolverines, the Buckeyes did hold the team to 4.1 yards per carry, but Michigan were allowed to stick with the run in a close game and that is something that the Volunteers will look to do and avoid putting Nick Iamaleava under the scrutiny to make plays against the Ohio State Secondary.
The Tennessee Offensive Line has been much happier when it comes to run blocking than pass protection so they will want to avoid obvious passing situations.
Ohio State have a Secondary that have really played well down the stretch and you would worry for the underdog if they were to fall a couple of scores behind.
However, it is the Tennessee Defensive unit that have the capabilities of keeping this game close and it makes the points being offered to the road underdog appealing. The cold weather is a concern, but that should not prevent the Volunteers from sticking with the game plan and they can keep this one competitive in a hostile environment.
MY PICKS: Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Penn State Nittany Lions - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers + 7.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Week 15: 3-3, - 0.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.67% Yield)
Week 14: 6-2, + 3.50 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)
Week 13: 4-4, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 12: 3-6, - 3.23 Units (9 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
Week 11: 1-5, - 4.15 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 4.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 57.86% Yield)
Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)
Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
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