The new College Football Playoff does bring some uncertainty to the table as we move onto the Quarter Final Round.
For starters, teams are not that accustomed to having to play multiple games over the festive month and that is the case for the four First Round Winners.
Of course, we don't really know how teams that have been given a Bye through to the Quarter Final will fare having spent over three weeks on the sidelines preparing rather than competing.
You can look at the previous years in the NFL when those teams that received a Bye through to the Divisional Round would struggle against teams that are in a much more competitive mindset. This is a potential factor going against the top Seeds in the Quarter Final Round, although it also has to be noted that three of those that have come through the First Round have been set as favourites against higher Seeded opponents.
The four Quarter Final games are going to be played across two days, New Year's Eve and New Year's Day, and the Picks can be read below.
Boise State Broncos vs Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: The new First Round of the College Football Playoff was disappointing in terms of drama, and the hope is that the Quarter Final games in the new format will be much more competitive.
This is going to be the first time that a team will be facing an opponent that has had a Bye since the Championship Week of the regular season and in the years ahead we may have more of an indication as to how that will affect performances.
The Penn State Nittany Lions (12-2) crushed the SMU Mustangs at home and they will next face the Boise State Broncos (12-1) in Arizona. Both of these teams may feel they are on the 'weaker' side of the Bracket, especially with the injuries suffered by the Georgia Bulldogs, but focusing on the future and ignoring the present would be a mistake.
All eyes will be on Ashton Jeanty, the Boise State Running Back who was a leading contender to win the Heisman before coming up short in the voting to a deserving Travis Hunter. He will be playing behind the Broncos Offensive Line which has been very effective at setting up the run all season and Jeanty is going to feel he can earn the 132 yards needed on the ground to smash Barry Sanders single season record in the NCAA.
The battle at the Line of Scrimmage is expected to be key to the outcome of this game and the Nittany Lions Defensive Line have played the run very well all season. They will believe they can at least contain Ashton Jeanty to some extent and try and force the Boise State Broncos to have to get the ball out of the hands of their best player and make Maddux Madsen beat them from the Quarter Back position.
Maddux Madsen has benefited from having a superstar at Running Back, but he has been efficient and it has been possible to attack this Penn State Secondary. Being in front of the chains is important, but Madsen is also well protected by the Boise State Offensive Line when he has had to drop back to throw the ball and the Quarter Back has been careful enough with his decision making.
This is important with the Nittany Lions capable of stepping in front of the passing lanes, while Boise State have not had a high level of competition this season as the non-Power 4 representative in the Playoff. However, they did push Big Ten Champions Oregon Ducks all the way very early in the season and that will give the Broncos confidence as they chase the upset.
We know it will be a test for the Broncos at the Line of Scrimmage when they have the ball, but the Boise State Defensive Line is also going to have to try and stop this Penn State run game.
It feels like a big challenge for the Broncos who ended the regular season struggling at the Line of Scrimmage and they now have to face a Nittany Lions Offensive Line that have helped the team power the run game. Everything could come down to this battle in this Quarter Final and Penn State moving the ball on the ground with some big runs will just negate the Broncos pass rush and also allow Drew Allar plenty of time from the Quarter Back position.
There is plenty of pressure on Allar who has been facing a lot of criticism and the same goes for Head Coach James Franklin who has come up short in big spots. The first two Playoff games could not have been much more welcoming for Penn State and their Head Coach-Quarter Back combination and Drew Allar may feel more comfortable without having to be the one to win this with his arm.
Avoiding turnovers is going to be key on both sides of the ball, but the edge has to be with the Penn State Nittany Lions after their dominant win over SMU in the First Round. This is a game being played on a neutral ground, but the Nittany Lions look to have the edge when it comes to establishing the run with any kind of consistency and the Nittany Lions may make enough plays late on to secure a cover of what is a big spread.
Arizona State Sun Devils vs Texas Longhorns Pick: After being tipped up to finish in the basement of the Big 12 in their first season in the Conference following a move away from the Pac-12, the Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) have stunned the naysayers.
Instead of planning for the 2025 season while others enjoyed the Bowl Season, the Sun Devils crushed the Iowa State Cyclones in the Big 12 Championship Game to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff. Not just earn a spot, but earn a Bye through to the Quarter Final in Atlanta where the Sun Devils will be in a familiar underdog spot.
There they will be facing the Texas Longhorns (12-2) who left the Big 12 to become a member of the SEC and who were beaten in the Championship Game in this Stadium in early December. The defeat did not prevent Texas from earning a spot in the Playoff, but they had to crush the Clemson Tigers, the ACC Champion, in the First Round to earn their spot in this Quarter Final.
The Longhorns were significant favourites to beat Clemson and did exactly what was expected of them and Texas will be heading into this Quarter Final as the strongest favourite of the Round.
A huge challenge awaits Arizona State even if the team has the momentum of having won six games in a row.
They will not have faced too many Defensive units of the power of the Texas Longhorns and this balanced Sun Devils Offense is going to need to have planned to produce their absolute best in this game. Everything begins with Cam Skattebo and the run game and the Sun Devils Defensive Line have been very strong up front all season, although we have to keep coming back to the fact that they will not have tried establishing the run against a Defensive Line like the one the Longhorns trot out onto the field.
It may mean more pressure on Sam Leavitt at Quarter Back who has exploited the fact that he has a star Running Back playing behind him. All credit has to be given to Leavitt for putting up the numbers he has and this Longhorns team can be attacked through the air, but that becomes much tougher when you think the Sun Devils are without their top Receiver Jordyn Tyson.
Facing a SEC Defensive unit after a season playing in the Big 12 is a big gap to bridge and Arizona State would have needed every top player to be available.
The pressure will be on the Sun Devils Defense to try and keep the team in the game, but they are also going to be playing a unit that they have not met every week. The Longhorns showed their power at the Offensive Line in crushing the Clemson Tigers, although the Arizona State Defensive Line will certainly feel they are playing at a decent level and can at least force Quinn Ewers to have to make some big throws.
Texas fans have perhaps been a little critical of Quinn Ewers with Archie Manning sitting behind him, but this should be a game in which the Quarter Back is given time to make his plays down the field. Interceptions have been a concern, and probably dropped Ewers stock a little bit, but he did enough to keep Texas moving in the First Round win over Clemson and that might be all the Longhorns need in this one too.
With the likelihood of the SEC team winning the turnover battle overall, Texas may just exert their strength and quality on the contest and they may just be able to make a few big Defensive plays in the Fourth Quarter to match the kind of margin produced in the win over the Clemson Tigers.
Oregon Ducks vs Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: The expectation was that these two Big Ten teams would have their rematch in the Conference Championship Game, but an upset on the final week of the regular season prevented that happening.
If the College Football Playoff had been re-Seeded after the First Round games, a real argument could be made to have the Oregon Ducks (13-0) and Ohio State Buckeyes (11-2) as 1 and 2, rather than 1 and 8 as they are heading into the Quarter Final.
Much of the blame lies with the Buckeyes losing to the struggling Michigan Wolverines in the final week of the regular season, which meant missing out on the Conference Championship Game. That meant missing out on a top five Seed and the chance to avenge the one point loss to the Oregon Ducks in the regular season.
Earning redemption in the College Football Playoff Quarter Final would be even sweeter than winning the Big Ten Championship, but there is plenty of pressure on Head Coach Ryan Day. The blowout win over the Tennessee Volunteers in the First Round just served as a reminder of why the Buckeyes have been considered a National Championship contender with the talent on the roster, but that loss to the Wolverines has really stuck in the throat and they have to prove themselves on the field.
The Rose Bowl is the venue for this huge game and it should produce a quality atmosphere with the winning team likely going into the College Football Playoff Semi Final as the big favourite to win it all in January 2025.
Both teams are going to be confident that they have the Offensive playmakers to win this game, but the Buckeyes and Ducks have plenty of confidence in the Defenders that will be on the field.
Establishing the run will be important for Ohio State who will have just seen the Oregon Defensive Line struggling to produce their best down the stretch. Having almost a month off between games is not ideal for the Ducks, even if the players will be rested, and the Defensive Line has to just show out a little better and try and put Quarter Back Will Howard behind the chains to try and stall drives.
Will Howard has over 3000 passing yards with 29 Touchdown passes and 9 Interceptions, while the Buckeyes Offensive Line have given him plenty of protection in the pocket. That Line will be tested by this Oregon pass rush which has made a huge habit of rattling the opposition Quarter Back and bringing them down, which has also contributed to the strong numbers the Ducks Secondary have put together.
The Quarter Back took the blame for the loss to Oregon in the regular season having failed to understand the clock management needed when running with the ball and watching time expire. This is clearly motivating Will Howard to bring his best to the Rose Bowl for this Quarter Final and he has the kind of Receiving talent to put the Buckeyes in a strong position to win this one.
There is plenty of talent on the Ohio State Defensive unit too, but the Ducks will feel their own Offensive unit can keep things ticking over.
Dillon Gabriel has over 3500 passing yards with 28 Touchdown passes and just 6 Interceptions and being careful with the ball, while also highly aggressive with the passing plays, has helped Oregon to an unbeaten record and a Big Ten Championship in their first season in the Conference.
In the first meeting, one that was hosted by Oregon, the Ducks were able to establish the run which opened things up for their Quarter Back to find his playmakers through the air.
The Oregon Quarter Back had a few more yards compared with Will Howard in the regular season meeting and Dillon Gabriel was well protected by his Offensive Line. It just offered Dillon Gabriel the time to make good decisions with his passing and the Oregon Ducks may just have the edge in what is expected to be another shoot-out between arguably the two best teams left in the Playoff.
Losing twice to the same team in the same season is simply not something that Ohio State have been used to doing and it has been almost 130 years since that last happened.
The Buckeyes may also feel having the First Round game against the Tennessee Volunteers will mean the rhythm remains, but this could come down to a final possession with little between the two top teams in the Big Ten.
With that in mind, taking the points looks the best way to approach this one and the Oregon Ducks have to be upset with being set as the underdog, especially after putting together an unbeaten season. It may be the motivation that helps them edge the Ohio State Buckeyes again, but taking the points looks the best play in a game that could be decided by as little as the regular season game was.
Georgia Bulldogs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: Time has been afforded to the SEC Champions Georgia Bulldogs (11-2) who upset the Texas Longhorns in the Championship Game to earn the Number 2 Seed and a Bye through to the Quarter Final.
However, things have not landed perfectly for one of the pre-season favourites to win the National Championship and that is because the Bulldogs have had starting Quarter Back Carson Beck ruled out for the entire post-season.
Instead it will be Gunner Stockton who will be playing behind Center and this is a tough test for the inexperienced Quarter Back as he prepares to face Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-1).
The Fighting Irish overcame an early season upset and worked their way through a pretty comfortable schedule to earn their Playoff spot without being a member of any of the Power Conferences. In the First Round they were able to dominate the Indiana Hoosiers, but this is a big step up for Notre Dame when they travel to New Orleans for this Quarter Final.
Head Coach Marcus Freeman may be under a bit more pressure to lead Notre Dame deeper into the post-season with an inexperienced Quarter Back facing his team, but this is also a big step up compared with many opponents that the Fighting Irish have faced in the regular season. Momentum is with the Fighting Irish, but this is an opponent from the SEC and it will be a significant test for all on their side.
All of the focus will be on the Notre Dame Offensive Line who have dominated opponents up front and who will have seen Georgia's Defensive Line just have some issues up front as the season wound down. All that is good about this Fighting Irish team begins with establishing the run and they should be able to keep Riley Leonard in positive positions on the field, especially as the Quarter Back is very comfortable tucking the ball and taking off himself.
There have also been some holes in the Bulldogs Secondary as they have struggled to replace those who left at the end of last season.
Riley Leonard is a capable passer too and it should mean the Fighting Irish are able to move the ball with some success, even against this SEC Championship level of team.
Another question for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to answer is how they can stand up to this powerful SEC Offensive unit, even if the Bulldogs are using their backup Quarter Back. The Georgia Offensive Line is big and strong and they may be extra focused to push forward and establish the run to make things that much more comfortable for Gunner Stockton.
The Bulldogs will feel they can get the run established and they will also feel the time between the SEC Championship Game and this Playoff Quarter Final will have been used well enough to have Stockton feeling comfortable. The idea has to be to keep this game competitive and not put an inexperienced Quarter Back in a position where he feels he has to win the game, even if there are one or two holes in this Secondary that Stockton will be able to exploit.
Notre Dame do have a set of players that will be looking to turn the ball over, although the injury suffered by Rylie Mills does hurt the Fighting Irish pass rush. Putting Gunner Stockton in front of the chains should mean the Bulldogs Offensive Line can give him a clean pocket, although avoiding turnovers will still be a test.
Overall this is a system run by the Bulldogs that Gunner Stockton would have had plenty of time to understand and it should mean a close, competitive game.
Both teams have to play with real belief and we don't really know how the long layoff will affect the Georgia Bulldogs. In previous years in the NFL, we have seen teams lose rhythm against those who have been fighting to earn spots in the next Round of the Playoff and that might just give Notre Dame a narrow edge in this one.
They are being given the points and those could make all the difference in the last of the four Quarter Final Playoff games scheduled.
MY PICKS: Penn State Nittany Lions - 11 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks + 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Playoff First Round: 3-1, + 1.72 Units (4 Units Staked, + 43% Yield)
Week 15: 3-3, - 0.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.67% Yield)
Week 14: 6-2, + 3.50 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)
Week 13: 4-4, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 12: 3-6, - 3.23 Units (9 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
Week 11: 1-5, - 4.15 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 4.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 57.86% Yield)
Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)
Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
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