The Carlos Alcaraz loss in the Second Round was a big upset, but the men's draw lost Novak Djokovic the next day and it really feels like the US Open is a wide open tournament.
With Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev on a collision course as soon as the Quarter Final, the rest of those making it through to the second week have to feel a big opportunity has presented itself with the defeats suffered by two of the top three players in the World Rankings.
It also means we have now reached another year without a men's Champion defending their title at the US Open with the last being Roger Federer all the way back in 2008.
The hope really springs for the likes of Grigor Dimitrov and Alexander Zverev in the bottom half of the draw, but others like Casper Ruud, Andrey Rublev and home hope Frances Tiafoe will have their supporters.
And Alexei Popyrin might be trying to back up an upset, but he is the Canadian Masters Champion and looks to be playing about as well as he ever has.
Usually it has been the women's draws that have tended to lose big name Seeds before the second week of Grand Slams, but the top names are still working their way towards the title. As we reach the Fourth Round, things can change very quickly and there are some good looking matches heading out onto the court on Day 7 at the tournament.
Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 games v Elise Mertens: There have been some major upsets in the men's tournament, but the top of the women's market has been largely unaffected by any upsets so far at the US Open. The only one missing is Elena Rybakina, but she pulled out with an injury prior to her Third Round match.
The two time Australian Open Champion, Aryna Sabalenka, has made it through to the Fourth Round at the US Open again and she continues to look like the player to beat. However, there are going to be some mental obstacles to overcome for Sabalenka who has suffered some heartbreaking losses at the business end of the US Open throughout her career.
Back to back Semi Final exits was followed by reaching the Final twelve months ago and Aryna Sabalenka will feel she had her chances to win that match too.
She has largely been comfortable through the first three Rounds and it is not a bad thing that Aryna Sabalenka had to overcome some resistance in the Third Round. A confident player, Sabalenka has found her very best form on the hard courts and a huge game all around makes her very tough to stop.
Elise Mertens can tell you all about that having struggled to compete with the big hitting World Number 2 and the former World Number 12 is really going to have to step up her level if she is going to give Sabalenka something to think about.
A lot of the successes that Mertens has on the Tour is down to her return game, but this is a serve that has troubled her regularly. While she won the first hard court match against Sabalenka, Elise Mertens has now lost five in a row to this opponent on this surface and the most recent matches have seen her blown away as the Belgian has struggled to make much of an impact on the return.
Failing to do that means Mertens is under pressure when it comes to her own serve, which can be vulnerable, and an aggressive Aryna Sabalenka is not likely to allow her opponent to settle into those games. Too many second serves will be exploited, and it is no surprise that Aryna Sabalenka has broken the Mertens serve at least four times in each of the last five hard court matches against one another.
Earlier in her career, Aryna Sabalenka was perhaps not as convincing at protecting serve against someone like Mertens who will be looking to get as many balls back into play. However, in the last three matches on the hard courts, Sabalenka has only dropped serve four times combined against this opponent and that has allowed her to dominate on the scoreboard.
A solid three wins will give Elise Mertens confidence, but this has been a tough match up for her and Aryna Sabalenka may be able to move through the gears to produce a strong win.
Coco Gauff - 2.5 games v Emma Navarro: A rematch of a meeting at Wimbledon, you can see how much Emma Navarro has improved and how much more respected she is by the prices.
At Wimbledon, Coco Gauff was a huge favourite, but it was Emma Navarro who came through with the victory as she upset her compatriot. It was a deserved win and it will give Navarro a lot of credit when these two players meet in the Fourth Round at the US Open.
The build up to the US Open has been more positive for Emma Navarro compared with Coco Gauff, but it is the higher Ranked player who is the defending Champion. And despite both players being from the United States, it is almost certain that Coco Gauff will be the fan favourite having won in New York City and just having a higher profile all around.
She has yet to really show her best in the tournament, but Coco Gauff has played at a consistent level and that will give her belief as she looks for revenge for the defeat at Wimbledon. Character was shown in coming from behind to beat Elina Svitolina in the last Round and that should certainly bolster the mood in what has been an underwhelming season by the high standards that Gauff has set.
Emma Navarro was also able to get the best of a Ukrainian in the Third Round, but her win was much tighter and she was perhaps a little fortunate when all was said and done. Winning breeds momentum though and Navarro may feel she has the consistency of tennis that can cause problems for Coco Gauff, who has been a lot more up and down with her level of performances over the last few months.
However, the motivation of earning a touch of revenge for the defeat at Wimbledon should inspire Coco Gauff. She might have made her breakthrough on the Tour in SW19 in London, but Gauff is a much more effective grass court player than a hard court one, even if this has not been the season the World Number 3 would have been expecting.
The men's draw have suffered some big upsets with two of the top three Seeds eliminated before the second week of the tournament, but Coco Gauff has the qualities to avoid the same.
Take nothing away from Emma Navarro and that win at Wimbledon will certainly means she is going to have plenty of belief in this match, but her serve can be vulnerable at times. She is 5-5 against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts, which is not a bad record, but the Navarro numbers have dipped significantly in those matches and the conditions in New York City may favour Coco Gauff, especially with the memories of her win here twelve months ago.
The match should be a really good one, but Coco Gauff should be able to cover this handicap mark even if she needs to win a deciding set.
Brandon Nakashima-Alexander Zverev over 36.5 games: There were plenty of knowledgable people speaking about the potential of Brandon Nakashima and he looked to be heading towards the top 20 of the World Rankings two years ago. He actually won the Next Gen World Tour Finals at the end of 2022, but injury has just stalled the career.
However, Brandon Nakashima has enjoyed a solid summer hard court series in the build towards the US Open, although Andrey Rublev ended his run at both Masters events played.
Some might have had their confidence dented, but not Nakashima who has won three matches here and two of those have been against top 20 Ranked opponents. The American has seen off Holger Rune and Lorenzo Musetti, but the challenges continue to get tougher for Brandon Nakashima in what has become a very open bottom half of the men's draw.
Novak Djokovic's departure has opened things up for every player in this half of the draw, but it is a player like Alexander Zverev that will move into favouritism to reach the Final. He did that at the US Open before and was a French Open Finalist earlier this season, but the added pressure is going to be a factor for Alexander Zverev to deal with.
Alexander Zverev has dropped a couple of sets, but he has been largely comfortable in his three wins in the main draw. The last match was a tough one for Zverev, but he showed resiliency after the difficult first couple of sets and eventually rolled through to the second week of the US Open.
Both players have to rely on their serve to set up the rest of their tennis and both Nakashima and Zverev will know that they have to improve on the Third Round showings. Easing through those service games will allow the player to just show some aggressive intent on the return and try and keep the other under pressure and the conditions are going to be favourable for servers.
The German has won their two previous matches, which have both been in Grand Slams, including once at the US Open. The meeting in New York City was in 2020 when Brandon Nakashima was the World Number 223, but he pushed the then World Number 7 Alexander Zverev before fading.
A much stronger Nakashima should be able to keep this one very competitive and there is an opportunity for the upset.
In reality Alexander Zverev should have enough to beat Brandon Nakashima- the feeling is that he will have to come through some difficult moments though and this could be another competitive Grand Slam match played between the two. Both should be good enough to at least win a set and that should set the match on the way to surpassing this total games line.
MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 2.5 Games @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Brandon Nakashima-Alexander Zverev Over 36.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
US Open Update: 17-12, + 4.84 Units (58 Units Staked, + 8.34% Yield)
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