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Thursday 1 August 2024

Paris Olympics Tennis Day 6 Picks 2024 (Thursday 1st August)

There may only be four players left in the women's draw as we enter Day 6 of the Olympic Games in Paris, but it still feels like a tough situation knowing only one will fail to win a Medal.

Would it be better to have two Bronze Medals for the two losing Semi Finalists? The competitor in me thinks not, but you have to sympathise with any player who reaches the last four and is not able to earn a Medal.

Ultimately winning Bronze is an achievement and not a consolation and so a big couple of days is coming up for the Singles players- the women's Gold Medal match is actually set to be played on Saturday so the two winning Semi Finalists will both finally have a day of rest between matches, but the second Semi Final losing player will not have a lot of time to prepare for the Bronze Medal match set for Friday.

The men's Gold Medal match will be played on Sunday, but the Quarter Finals are all to be played on Day 6 at the tournament before moving into the Semi Final matches on Friday and the Bronze Medal match on Saturday.


The women's event has produced a fair few more surprise results than the men's, but Iga Swiatek has come through a scare in the Quarter Final win over Danielle Collins. She remains a very strong favourite to win the Gold Medal on her favoured surface, while Anna Schmiedlova and Qinwen Zheng are definitely more surprising names for the last four.

We remain on a collision course to see Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic again, although there are still one or two players in the draw that will certainly feel they have a part to play. This should mean a very good end to the Paris Olympics before the Tours shift to Canada for the Masters event beginning next week and the full attention of the sport will be on the US Open which is now a little under a month away from beginning in New York City.


Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: There have already been two memorable matches between Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas on the Roland Garros grounds as they prepare to meet in the Olympic Games Quarter Final in Paris.

Both times it is Novak Djokovic who has come out on top- in 2020 he beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in the French Open Quarter Final after blowing a 2-0 lead and needing a fifth set, but more important was the French Open Final win in 2022 when Djokovic came from 2-0 behind to prevent Tsitsipas from winning a maiden Grand Slam title.

Over two years later, Stefanos Tsitsipas is still waiting to win a Grand Slam title, but winning the Gold Medal would be a big achievement for him and his nation. A solid win was produced in the Third Round over Sebastian Baez, but there is still a feeling that Tsitsipas needs to find another level if he is going to get one over on Novak Djokovic, who is desperate to win the Gold Medal to 'complete' his tennis career.

The return has been key for Stefanos Tsitsipas in the last couple of Rounds having just about gotten through his opening match, but it will be tough to have the same impact against the Novak Djokovic serve. The latter has won at least 68% of points behind serve in each of his three wins this week and that is a very strong number for the clay courts, while Djokovic has won just shy of 67% of service points against Tsitsipas in their five previous clay court meetings.

This is a surface on which Tsitsipas may feel he has his best chance of upsetting Novak Djokovic, although the fact he has lost all five previous matches on the red dirt is going to be a mental obstacle to overcome. It has not been the best year on the clay for the World Number 11, and Novak Djokovic is likely going to feel pretty comfortable within this match up considering the form he has shown this week.

He has created plenty of Break Point chances and has been efficient with his chances when they have come up, and that is likely going to mean there is pressure on the Stefanos Tsitsipas game.

Facing arguably the greatest return player of all time is challenging in any circumstance, but Tsitsipas has not really been as strong behind his serve as he would have liked this week. The dominant win over Daniel Evans aside, Tsitsipas was tested by Sebastian Baez and Zizou Bergs on this side of his tennis and Novak Djokovic is likely going to offer a much sterner examination of his serve.

There is confidence in the way Stefanos Tsitsipas is carrying himself, but outside of the Monte Carlo Masters, he has a 1-7 record against top 10 opponents over the last twelve months and that is hard to ignore. The player himself will know full well about his own record, and that can play a part in giving Novak Djokovic enough of an edge to win and cover.


Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Tommy Paul: There is no doubt that the French Open and Wimbledon Champion will have a lot of respect for the capabilities of Tommy Paul on a tennis court as these two opponents prepare to meet for a second time in a month.

The match at Wimbledon saw the first two sets split, but it was Carlos Alcaraz who took control of the match and ultimately won that Quarter Final in four sets as he pulled away from the American.

The previous four matches had all be played on a hard court and had been split with two wins each so this is not a match up that Carlos Alcaraz will take lightly. He has been playing in the Doubles tournament alongside Rafael Nadal this week and managing the workload will be as challenging as the opponent on the other side of the net with the limited time off to prepare.

Despite that, Carlos Alcaraz has played well in the Singles tournament and he has been producing at the kind of high level expected from a player that won the French Open here just a little over six weeks ago. The serve really has been working at a superb level in this tournament and that is always going to give Carlos Alcaraz opportunities to roll through matches.

Prior to the Roland Garros victory, Alcaraz had not been at his absolute best on the clay, but that victory and the three wins here suggests he will be very difficult to beat at the Olympic Games. Serving well in this event has allowed Carlos Alcaraz to dominate on the return of serve and it will be a real test for Tommy Paul to keep this one competitive on arguably his worst surface.

That is not to say that Tommy Paul cannot perform on the clay, as he showed when reaching the Rome Masters Semi Final earlier this year. However, playing on the red dirt has been a tough experience for Paul and someone like Carlos Alcaraz should have far too much for him over the course of the ninety minutes they are likely going to spend on court.

Carlos Alcaraz has broken the Tommy Paul serve in 28% of return games played and that on the faster surfaces- on this surface, Alcaraz should have a little more success and that should put the Spaniard in a position to win and cover as he looks for his place in the Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Olympic Games Update: 6-7, - 4.10 Units (26 Units Staked, - 15.78% Yield)

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