It has been a tournament that has not produced a lot of drama through the early parts of the week, but the Carlos Alcaraz defeat in the Second Round will have reverberated around the grounds.
Of course we had to have people making huge statements of it being the 'biggest upset' of all time, but the reality is that every top player has suffered a defeat early in Grand Slams. The 'big four' largely avoided those, but Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal lost memorable matches in their peak and Carlos Alcaraz will learn a lot about himself in the weeks and months ahead.
The curse of the men's Silver Medalist struck again at the US Open, but it has been a strong year on the Tour for the young Spaniard who has won two of the four Grand Slams played.
His exit opens the door for Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner, although these two are set to meet in the Quarter Final.
All of that means we are going to have at least one surprising name in the Semi Final and that will ramp up the pressure on all of the players in the quarter of the draw that Alcaraz has departed.
The last couple of days have been mixed for the Tennis Picks made and Saturday is looking a quieter day with just three selections made.
I will update the US Open totals once the full Day 5 schedule has been completed.
Jack Draper - 5.5 games v Botic van de Zandschulp: Easily the biggest upset of the 2024 US Open, Botic van de Zandschulp is looking to back up the victory over Carlos Alcaraz in another match in which he is set as a significant underdog.
Of course, after winning the Second Round match against Alcaraz in the manner he did, Botic van de Zandschulp is not as big an underdog against his next opponent, but he is still an underdog. The layers are not taking too many risks after the season the Dutchman has had, even if at his best van de Zandschulp worked his way close to the top 20 in the World Rankings.
However, it has been a tough 2024 and Botic van de Zandschulp had won just 33% of his hard court matches prior to the start of the US Open. Back to back wins here will certainly have raised the confidence, but it has been a surprise considering he was pretty well beaten in Winston Salem in the lead up to the final Grand Slam of the season.
It was a special performance on Day 4, but van de Zandschulp will struggle to get back to that level displayed against Carlos Alcaraz. There is a bit more pressure on him after such a headline win and it cannot be ignored that he had been struggling on the hard courts this year.
In saying that, there is plenty of pressure on Jack Draper too.
The World Number 25 would have been hoping for a big run at the US Open, but the expectation will have risen after the exit of the player that has won the last two Grand Slam titles. That expectation level can play on the mind of any player and Draper is going to have to control his emotion and avoid looking too far ahead at the potential he has in this tournament.
Overall Jack Draper has been playing at a considerably higher level on this surface, but this will be a test for him.
The first set should be very competitive, but it is a match that Draper should be comfortable with if he continues to serve as efficiently as he can. The return game can be a bit inconsistent, and that is where this spread will be won or lost, but Botic van de Zandschulp had only been holding 73% of service games on the hard courts before this Grand Slam began.
With plenty of expectations on his own shoulders after dumping out one of the favourites, it may be tough for Botic van de Zandschulp to find the level needed to beat another player Ranked higher than himself. Jack Draper is a little inexperienced, but his quality of tennis should be at a high enough level to find his way through this match and eventually take complete control.
Tomas Machac - 1.5 sets v David Goffin: For the second Grand Slam in a row, two players at opposite ends of their careers meet, although this time it is a Third Round match rather than a First Round match as it was at Wimbledon.
David Goffin is a former top ten player, and he is still a capable player as he has shown through much of the season. The problem that Goffin has is when he has come up against the stronger players on the Tour and his hard court record against top 50 Ranked players was 1-4 prior to the US Open.
He has won two matches against such Ranked players to work his way into the Third Round, which has to be respected, but the serve has been vulnerable against the better players. This has added to the pressure on the return, but the Goffin numbers dip significantly and he breaks in 20% of return games played against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts compared with his 29% overall mark on this surface.
Challenging the Tomas Machac serve will not be much easier, although Goffin did break the young Czechia player seven times in their match on the Wimbledon grass. However, it was the nine breaks of his own serve that allowed Machac to fight back from 2-0 down in sets to win that First Round match in SW19, while the younger player is much more comfortable when it comes to playing on the hard courts compared with the grass.
Tomas Machac had not been in the best of form in the lead up to the US Open with early losses in Montreal and Cincinnati, but one of those defeats was to Alexei Popyrin who went on to win the tournament in Canada.
A bit more consistency is needed from a young player that has been expected to reach the top of the ATP Tour, and he is looking to crack the top 30 in the World Rankings for the first time. His win over Sebastian Korda, and the manner in which it was achieved, will certainly give Tomas Machac a boost in confidence and this is a match up that should not really worry him.
The pressure is on Machac to serve well, but he is control of that aspect of the match and it does feel like a contest that will be played on his racquet. David Goffin is still a decent mover around the court, and that will test the Tomas Machac's patience.
However, the fact they have met pretty recently will help and Tomas Machac has the momentum of winning the last three sets at Wimbledon against the Belgian. On a more favoured surface, Tomas Machac can frank that win and do so with a little more comfort on the scoreboard as he books a place in the second week.
Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: In May 2023, Iga Swiatek crushed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in straight sets and handed out a double bagel on her favoured clay courts.
It was a time when Pavlyuchenkova had spent a number of months on the sidelines and she was the World Number 506 in that match, but this time she is the World Number 27 and a Seeded player in the US Open. As far as Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is concerned, there is little doubt that she can only improve on the first match up with the current World Number 1.
She is also a stronger hard court player than when operating on the red dirt, while Iga Swiatek is a really tough out on the clay. In reality, Swiatek has not made it to World Number 1 by dominating the clay portion of the season alone and she is a very comfortable hard court player and looks to have enough of an edge to win this Third Round match with something to spare.
The Pole disappointing failed to win the Gold Medal at the Paris Olympics, but did make it through to the Cincinnati Semi Final in her sole hard court tournament in the build into the US Open. The Third Round exit at the Australian Open will have stung, but Iga Swiatek is a former US Open Champion and the tennis level she can produce might be a touch too high for Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to keep up on the scoreboard.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova did reach the Cincinnati Quarter Final, but other hard court results have been much more mixed and she is going to have to step up her level against one of the top players on the Tour.
Much of this contest is going to be decided by the quality of the Russian's serving- if Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova can put a lot of first serves in play, she should be able to put Iga Swiatek under some pressure and perhaps stay with the World Number 1. However, too many second serves are likely going to be exploited, while Pavlyuchenkova has not returned as well as she would like when facing top 20 Ranked players on this surface.
She still has a 5-5 record in those matches so has to be respected.
However, Iga Swiatek rolled through the Second Round and may be picking up momentum and she can be backed to come through a tough opening set before pulling clear of her Seeded opponent.
MY PICKS: Jack Draper - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tomas Machac - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
US Open Update: 14-12, - 0.24 Units (52 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
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