The Third Round at the US Open is scheduled to get underway on Day 5 of the tournament and the intensity of the matches should begin to build.
There are some very good looking matches set to take to the courts and it looks to be the busiest day for the Tennis Picks so far this week. It means Day 5 is an important one to try and set this tournament on a positive path to a winning event for the selections being made.
Casper Ruud - 1.5 sets v Juncheng Shang: A withdrawal in Canada and an early loss in Cincinnati meant Casper Ruud arrived in New York City as a vulnerable Seed. He is a former US Open Finalist, so clearly is very capable of playing on the hard courts in front of a vociferous crowd, but there were some doubts with the build up for the tournament being far from ideal.
Wins in the first two Rounds will have given him confidence, and he looked to be in pretty good nick in the Second Round when beating veteran Gael Monfils. He was out on the court for just shy of three hours, although not in the heat of the day when conditions in New York City have proved to be tough for many other players performing.
Conditions should be better for tennis when this Third Round match is played, but it is likely to be humid and we are moving into that time of the Grand Slam when matches become that much more difficult.
Now you are facing opponents who have also won a couple of matches in the main draw and Juncheng Shang has already eliminated one Seed in his run to the Third Round. The five set win over Alexander Bublik was backed up perfectly with a routine win in the Second Round, and Shang has shown he has an ability that is perhaps much higher than his World Ranking would suggest by putting a 9-5 record on the board against top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface.
The layers are not underestimating the capabilities of the World Number 72, especially as Juncheng Shang reached the Semi Final in Atlanta in the hard court tournaments used to build towards the US Open. The 19 year old also reached the Third Round at the Australian Open before finding Carlos Alcaraz too much to handle, and Shang is not going to be that worried about having to face someone like Casper Ruud.
Confidence and a left handed serve makes him dangerous, but Ruud has looked in good shape through the first couple of Rounds. He is a perfect 8-0 on the hard courts in 2024 when facing players Ranked outside the top 50, and Casper Ruud has been able to dominate behind his own serve in those matches.
Juncheng Shang is capable in his own return, but the serve is perhaps not quite as reliable as the one Casper Ruud has at this stage of their respective careers. That could prove to be key in this good looking Third Round match and it may see the former US Open Finalist push through for a solid win as he progresses through to the second week here again.
Ben Shelton - 1.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: Twelve months ago, Ben Shelton arrived at the US Open knowing he had already made a big impact on the Tour when he reached the Australian Open Quarter Final.
Not many would have picked the young American to surpass that, but he did by reaching the US Open Semi Final where his run was ended by eventual Champion Novak Djokovic.
However, Ben Shelton had upset compatriot Frances Tiafoe on his way to the Semi Final with a four set win in the Quarter Final and this time around Shelton will be playing in New York City as a Seeded player. The World Number 13 was Ranked down at Number 47 last year, although it does mean Shelton is playing under the pressure of having to defend a Semi Final run.
He doesn't really strike anyone as a player who will worry about external pressure though and Ben Shelton will have big ambitions for himself. Solid results through the course of the season have pushed him close to the top ten in the World Rankings, while he had plenty of wins in hard court matches while preparing for the US Open.
Wins over veterans Dominic Thiem and Roberto Bautista Agut without dropping a set will have given Ben Shelton some real confidence, but this is a significant step up in terms of class of opponent.
Frances Tiafoe has admitted that it has been a tough twelve months for himself, but he reached the Final at the Cincinnati Masters in the lead to the US Open. It was a run that came out of left field considering the form Tiafoe has produced over the course of the year, and his wins in the main draw will have furthered his belief.
As the World Number 20 would say himself, Frances Tiafoe has suffered a lot of tough losses, but this is a player that is more than capable of the 'upset'. In the last two years, Tiafoe has reached the Semi Final and the Quarter Final at his home Grand Slam and there is little doubt that he will be hugely motivated when playing in front of these fans.
We do know that Ben Shelton is perhaps not the strongest return player on the Tour, but he is a player with a monster serve and that makes him dangerous at all times. He looks especially dangerous against someone like Frances Tiafoe, who has struggled with his return through the course of the season, although both players were able to break serve a number of times when they played in the Quarter Final here last year.
There will be some swings in momentum through the course of this big time Third Round match, but the Ben Shelton serve can come through at key moments. It will put pressure on Frances Tiafoe, who has a 4-4 record when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months.
However, that would have read 1-3 before his run to the Cincinnati Final and Ben Shelton may just prove to have the right shots at the right time to pull clear of his compatriot again.
Alexei Popyrin + 7.5 games v Novak Djokovic: This is the third Grand Slam in 2024 where Alexei Popyrin will be forced to face Novak Djokovic and it is the former World Number 1 who has won the previous meetings at the Australian Open and Wimbledon. Credit has to be given to Popyrin for winning a set each time and remaining competitive in those defeats, but winning the biggest title of his career in Canada earlier this month should mean he is playing with higher ambitions than merely being competitive.
This is a tough match up for Alexei Popyrin- his aggressive style behind a big serve has been working well enough to take him into the top 30 of the World Rankings for the first time, but it is tough to be able to do that against a defensive master like Novak Djokovic. You can for a set, but to do so for three or four hours is where it becomes very challenging and that has been clear in his two Grand Slam defeats against the Serb.
Alexei Popyrin has overcome some tough numbers to keep things close- he saved 8/11 Break Points faced in Melbourne and 6/8 Break Points faced in London and those numbers will have to be repeated in this one.
Ultimately he has also not been able to get into the Novak Djokovic service games as effectively as he would like and Popyrin has managed just three breaks in the two Grand Slam matches played.
Novak Djokovic admitted he was not serving at his best in the Second Round win over his compatriot Laslo Djere, but he was still comfortable enough and looks very focused on attempting to win a maiden Grand Slam title in 2024. The Gold Medal earned in Paris has bolstered the confidence and Djokovic remains one of the top players in the world on this surface.
The feeling is that Novak Djokovic will accept those hot streaks that Alexei Popyrin has been able to produce and by looking after his own serve, the Number 2 Seed will feel his opportunities will come.
Most of the pressure will still be on Alexei Popyrin to find a way to at least give Djokovic something to think about when returning. He played well on the return in winning the Canadian Masters, but Popyrin was beaten early in Cincinnati and the New York City heat may have subsided a little, which may mean his own serve is impacted a little more.
However, in saying all that, Alexei Popyrin has shown he can produce the tennis needed to challenge Novak Djokovic and this time he will be playing as a Masters Champion. That confidence cannot be understated and Popyrin may be able to make use of the games that are being given to him in this Third Round match.
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games v Yafan Wang: A severe migraine looked like it could be very difficult to overcome, but Victoria Azarenka showed off her veteran experience in earning a spot in the US Open Third Round.
A former two time Australian Open Champion and three time US Open Finalist, Victoria Azarenka has seen her best tennis days. The numbers have remained impressive, but the Belarusian former World Number 1 lacks the consistency that saw her reach the top of the WTA Tour.
Even reaching the second week of a Grand Slam has become a challenge for Victoria Azarenka, but she did manage that at the Australian Open earlier this year. This is a player that is comfortable on the hard courts and Azarenka will be pleased with the draw having beaten Yafan Wang in the preparation events for the final Grand Slam of the season.
Over the last several weeks, Yafan Wang has had some mixed results on the hard courts, but she was able to take advantage of Maria Sakkari's injury issues in the First Round in New York City. She had won just two of the eight matches played against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts prior to that win over Sakkari and it may be tough to close the gap between the two players.
There were a couple of concerns about Victoria Azarenka heading into the tournament considering the last time she had played had ended prematurely in Toronto. Her performances in the first two Rounds should have the player and her fans feeling better and she can frank the victory she had over Yafan Wang in Washington during the hard court tournaments building up to this Grand Slam.
Serving more efficiently will help make things easier, but this is likely going to be a match in which a number of breaks of serve are shared out. Ultimately you have to believe Victoria Azarenka can get the better of the opportunities and she can produce a solid Third Round win.
Coco Gauff - 3.5 games v Elina Svitolina: There is little doubt that the continued war between Russia and Ukraine remains on the forefront of many minds, but it is so much harder for athletes from Ukraine. Many of the tennis players have made it clear how much they support their compatriots and it does mean fans are going to be behind them.
The biggest name may be Elina Svitolina and she has received massive support since returning to the Tour.
Her heart is worn on her sleeve and the fans have responded, but it will be tough to win the support from the stands when facing Coco Gauff, the American defending Champion. Form prior to the tournament has been erratic, but Gauff is going to feel very comfortable in New York City and on the courts where her maiden Grand Slam title has been won.
Coco Gauff began the season very well on the hard courts and also reached the Semi Final at the Australian Open, but she has suffered early losses in Toronto and Cincinnati. This perhaps meant Gauff was coming into the tournament as a vulnerable higher Seed, but she has looked more comfortable in this setting and this is a match up that should not be one that concerns her too much.
Of course there will be a respect for Elina Svitolina, but Coco Gauff has to believe her serve is the more effective of the two players and that can give her the edge in the match. It was the case in their most recent match in Auckland earlier this year as the higher Ranked player was able to exert her control, even in a match that ended up going the distance.
The previous match between the two was at the Australian Open back in 2021 when the Rankings were switched.
On that occasion Elina Svitolina won the match, but it was a close, competitive affair and Coco Gauff is a much improved player now. The return is likely going to put Elina Svitolina under pressure over the course of this Third Round match and it may be one that Gauff ends up winning with some relative comfort.
MY PICKS: Casper Ruud - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ben Shelton - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alexei Popyrin + 7.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Emma Navarro - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Donna Vekic @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Brandon Nakashima - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
US Open Update: 10-8, + 1.08 Units (36 Units Staked, + 3% Yield)
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