Tough conditions can really make it very difficult for the players to produce their best tennis and those competing and those paying to attend the US Open will be glad to hear that cooler temperatures are set to hit New York City.
This should make it easier for players to lift their level of tennis and Day 4 will bring the conclusion of the Second Round.
As we move further into the event, the quality of matches should naturally improve.
The selections for Day 4 are in this thread and the US Open numbers will be updated after Day 3 is completed.
Arthur Fils - 1.5 sets v Gabriel Diallo: There is plenty of big hopes for Arthur Fils as the next big star of French Tennis, but he is still lacking a bit of experience as far as Grand Slam tournaments are concerned. He has played in a number of those, but Wimbledon last month was the first time he has moved past the Second Round and he is a favourite to do that again.
Of course being a favourite doesn't mean anything and this is going to be a tough match against Gabriel Diallo, a young Canadian who has come through the Qualifying Rounds. Beating Jaume Munar in the First Round will have given Diallo further belief, while the comfort of playing on the hard courts should help in the confidence department.
However, it should be noted that a lot of the successes that Gabriel Diallo has had have been on the Challenger Tour rather than the main ATP Tour. He was beaten by Karen Khachanov in the Canadian Masters earlier this month and that has dropped Diallo's record to 0-4 when facing top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2024.
The serve has not been the issue in all honesty, but Gabriel Diallo has massively struggled on the return and has broken in just 5% of return games played against those top 100 Ranked opponents. The concern has to be that only one of those opponents were Ranked higher than where Arthur Fils is Ranked right now and the Frenchman has to believe he has the tennis to win the key points to come through this match in three or four sets.
Arthur Fils has a serve that has been well protected, while he has broken in 19% of return games played on the hard courts. Those numbers look very impressive when only considering hard court matches that Fils has played against players Ranked outside of the top 50 and he has won nine of those ten matches, while breaking in 29% of return games played.
This is key to the outcome of this Second Round match and Arthur Fils has the ability to make sure he is solid enough at the important moments to progress to the Third Round for the first time at the US Open.
Jack Draper - 7.5 games v Facundo Diaz Acosta: He reached his career best World Ranking back in April and that perhaps underlines the feeling that Facundo Diaz Acosta would be much happier playing on the clay courts than any other surface.
Over the last twelve months, the numbers have been night and day when comparing Facundo Diaz Acosta on the clay and on the hard courts and this period of the season may soon be forgotten. He had lost five hard court matches in a row before beating Hugo Gaston in the US Open First Round, and that includes losing early in Washington and Canada.
You cannot completely dismiss Facundo Diaz Acosta as a threat- as recently as 2021 he had a winning record in hard court matches and had actually played strong tennis. However, his record is 7-11 since the start of 2022 and Diaz Acosta's hopes of using the lefty serve as something of an advantage may not be as clear when facing a fellow southpaw in this one.
Jack Draper is the next man up as far as British Tennis is concerned after Andy Murray's retirement and both Daniel Evans and Cameron Norrie perhaps already past their best. The twenty-two year old has reached a career high World Ranking mark this month and is Seeded in the US Open, although he has been hoping to move past some controversy after a win over Felix Auger-Aliassime in Cincinnati earlier this month.
While being absolutely clear that he did not 'cheat', there has been some suggestions that Draper employed some gamesmanship in the win over Auger-Aliassime on the controversial Match Point, and that is perhaps weighing on him. You would not have thought that in his comfortable First Round win, but Draper had lost in the next Round in Cincinnati after the drama and the fans in New York City are quite quick to turn on players.
Ultimately this is a match that should see Jack Draper able to work his way into the tournament without being on a major show court. That has to be a help, not a hindrance, and Draper has shown his comfort on this surface throughout 2024.
While not always looking like the most convincing of return players, Jack Draper has broken in 25% of return games played on the hard courts this season. He should be able to exert plenty of pressure on his Second Round opponent and that is likely going to see the British Number 1 come through with an impressive victory to back up the opening win.
Naomi Osaka - 1.5 games v Karolina Muchova: There have been moments when Naomi Osaka has looked close to her best, but the consistency is the key if she is going to move back to the level she once was displaying on the Tour. The hard courts in particular were the favoured domain of Osaka and four Grand Slam titles on this surface means she would have been a player that most wanted to avoid in the early Rounds.
Number 10 Seeded Jelena Ostapenko drew the short straw and it was a crushing performance from Naomi Osaka who won very, very easily. The serve proved to be a big weapon for the former World Number 1 and a couple more wins will really help Naomi Osaka in her bid to improve her current Number 88 mark.
This is a tough test for Naomi Osaka, even if Karolina Muchova has had an injury hit year which has seen her own World Ranking drop out of the top 50. Only twelve months ago, Muchova was a member of the top ten of the World Rankings, to underline the lack of tennis she has played in recent months and the Czech player is in the same boat as Naomi Osaka in trying to find the consistency that took her into the upper echelons of the World Rankings.
A solid First Round win was secured, and Karolina Muchova did reach the Final in Palermo on a clay court in the build up to the Paris Olympics. However, she is just 2-2 after the First Round win since that run to the Final and Muchova may struggle with the power edge that Naomi Osaka will bring to the court.
There is so much to like about Muchova and the efforts she puts into matches on the Tour, while it is hard to ignore the fact she has gotten the most out of her talent. She is a solid hard court player at her best and did take a set from the in-form Jessica Pegula in a defeat in Cincinnati, but Naomi Osaka's serve could prove to be the difference in a match between two players searching to find their best.
At key times, the ability to perhaps muster one or two cheaper points may prove decisive for Naomi Osaka as she makes her way through another Round.
Diana Shnaider - 4.5 games v Clara Tauson: One of the players who have really improved over the last twelve months will be playing in the women's draw and still going relatively under the radar. That is a surprise considering Diana Shnaider is now a top 20 player, but the 20 year old is probably quite happy to be left alone to focus on developing and improving her tennis.
Twelve months ago, Diana Shnaider had to try and Qualify for the US Open and was beaten in the Second Qualifying Round, and being a Seed in 2024 shows how well she has played in the time between tournaments.
A run to the Semi Final in Toronto and a decent follow up in Cincinnati will have given Shnaider a lot of belief to take into the US Open and she dropped just one game in the First Round. The challenges will become a lot tougher going forward though and Shnaider will be aware of the qualities of Clara Tauson.
Another youngster, Clara Tauson has perhaps not pushed on as much as expected as injuries have perhaps held her back. The Dane is just 21 years old, but has dropped from her career best mark down to World Number 67 over the last two years, and she has been very reliant on her strong first serve on this surface this year.
If failing to hit that, Clara Tauson will find Diana Shnaider attacking her second serve and that in turn will put additional pressure on the return game. The younger of the two players will still believe there is room for improvement in her own return game, but Shnaider may feel more comfortable protecting her own second serve in what should be a fun match.
One additional factor is that Clara Tauson is 1-6 against top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts in 2024 and the Dane was pretty well beaten in those matches in Toronto and Cincinnati. The second serve numbers and return numbers have been dented compared with her overall mark when looking at those seven matches and Diana Shnaider may have the confidence to secure a strong win, even after the ups and downs that are likely to be a feature of the match.
Beatriz Haddad Maia - 4.5 games v Sara Sorribes Tormo: The match did not start as expected, but Beatriz Haddad Maia grew through the second and third set and was a comfortable winner when all was said and done. This has backed up her strong run in Cleveland in the last tournament prior to the US Open getting underway and this should be a good match up for her.
Take nothing away from Sara Sorribes Tormo who feels like an overachiever as a Singles player that reached World Number 32, but her best tennis days look to be behind her. She has dropped out of the top 100 these days and the draw was a very kind one for the Spaniard that allowed her to come through her First Round match against a young American player.
There has been very little winning in recent weeks before the US Open and Sara Sorribes Tormo is just 4-9 on the hard courts in 2024 when including the First Round win. Her serve is extremely vulnerable and Sorribes Tormo perhaps does not have the same kind of energy to get around court and play her defensive brand of tennis as she once did.
It has led to 40% of return points won, which is considerably down on recent years and now Sara Sorribes Tormo has to deal with an awkward serve in this Second Round match.
The lefty serve is always a dangerous weapon for players on the Tour and Beatriz Haddad Maia will make use of that, while her own return game will benefit from facing what is a pretty weak serve coming from the other side of the net. This is a player that has given the Brazilian some problems in the past, which means Haddad Maia should arrive on the court with a healthy respect for Sara Sorribes Tormo, even if the higher Ranked player has won the last two between them.
This is a big spread when you think of some of the inconsistent performances we have seen from Beatriz Haddad Maia, but the match should be played on her racquet. That is key and Haddad Maia have the qualities to eventually pull away for a big victory on the day as she progresses through to the Third Round.
MY PICKS: Arthur Fils - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jack Draper - 7.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Diana Shnaider - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Beatriz Haddad Maia - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
US Open Update: 8-5, + 3.76 Units (26 Units Staked, + 14.46% Yield)
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