There have been a few US Opens where the rain has played a part early in the event, but the hot conditions are making it tough for the players in a different way this year.
At least the tournament is running on schedule and Day 3 at the US Open means the start of the Second Round matches.
Juncheng Shang - 1.5 sets v Roberto Carballas Baena: Both of these players came through five sets in the First Round at the US Open, but there were one or two concerns about the Roberto Carballas Baena fitness at the end of his win over Jan Choinski.
For Juncheng Shang, the key will be to recover mentally from a big effort to beat Alexander Bublik in an upset, but the nineteen year old is playing on a career best World Ranking mark and looks capable of pushing further up the Rankings. Injury has perhaps held him back from already making an impact on the Tour, but Shang is confident on the hard courts and the win over Bublik will have opened up his little section in the draw.
Backing up big wins is always the challenge for younger, inexperienced players, and that is the challenge set for Juncheng Shang. He did beat Roberto Carballas Baena on a clay court earlier this season, which is the favoured courts of the Spaniard, and there is little doubt that Carballas Baena is not quite as sold when it comes to this surface.
Roberto Carballas Baena has not been able to avoid a losing record on the hard courts since 2018 and he will do well to do that this season too.
Two hard court preparation matches ended in straight sets defeats in Washington and in Canada and Roberto Carballas Baena looked to be floundering after blowing a 2-0 lead in sets in the First Round. That was also a match against the World Number 276 and Carballas Baena has a 4-7 record against top 100 Ranked players on the hard courts this season.
He is capable and the veteran will know a few tricks to try and get Juncheng Shang off his game, but Roberto Carballas Baena may need to get through the games quickly to preserve energy. Ultimately that is not the style he will employ as a clay courter and that should give the younger player the edge as he looks to frank the win on the clay courts against this opponent.
Roberto Carballas Baena took the opening set, but Juncheng Shang created more than three times as many Break Points and he should have an edge in this Second Round match on the hard courts. The feeling is that the young player will be able to back up the victory over a Seeded opponent and get past Roberto Carballas Baena in three or four sets.
Taylor Fritz - 1.5 sets v Matteo Berrettini: The hard court season should be a time when Taylor Fritz finds himself inspired, but it has been a tough month for the American. There will be no excuses at the US Open and Fritz was a comfortable First Round winner, but the form on this surface since the Indian Wells Masters has been extremely disappointing.
In saying that, Taylor Fritz may point out that he has been given a couple of tough early draws with Sebastian Korda and Brandon Nakashima getting the better of him in the two Masters events played in preparation for the US Open. Both are very comfortable on the hard courts and Nakashima has already produced an upset at this Grand Slam when seeing off Holger Rune in the First Round.
Taylor Fritz may have hoped that he would be able to ease his way into the tournament, but he has been unfortunate in being placed in the same mini-section as Matteo Berrettini, one of the dangerous floaters who is Unseeded in the tournament.
In January 2022, Matteo Berrettini was the World Number 6 and he looked to be the leading Italian hope on the ATP Tour having reached the Semi Final at the US Open in 2019 and the Wimbledon Final in 2021. Another Semi Final run at the Australian Open in 2022 and two Quarter Final runs at the US Open in 2021 and 2022 are other highlights of his career, but Berrettini's star has been stolen by Jannik Sinner as injuries have restricted his time on the Tour over the last couple of years.
He actually missed the first two Slams in 2024 and a Second Round exit at Wimbledon is disappointing, while Matteo Berrettini lost early in Cincinnati in his sole hard court match played before his First Round win at the US Open. Beating Albert Ramos is one thing and this is a big step up for the Italian who is now playing as the World Number 44 and who will be hoping that he can steer clear of injuries in the weeks, months and years ahead.
You know both players are going to be looking to back up monster serving and see if they can put pressure on the other, especially as the return games have been suspect to say the least. Since Indian Wells, Taylor Fritz has broken in just shy of 9% of return games played on the hard courts in four matches, but looked better in the First Round against a weaker opponent, while Matteo Berrettini has broken in 14% of return games played on this surface over the same time period.
Taylor Fritz may get a bit more backing from the crowd being at home, but Matteo Berrettini is very popular and that should make this an entertaining match.
The American, who is a top 12 Seed in the tournament, has had the better of Matteo Berrettini in their previous three meetings and that should play a part in the match. All of those have been on the hard courts and at a time when Berrettini was a top 20 Ranked player and who had been the higher Ranked player twice, but it is Taylor Fritz who has found a winning performance each time.
The service numbers have been key- Taylor Fritz has won 69% of service points played in those three wins and he has held 92% of games, while Matteo Berrettini has won 62% of the points played behind his own serve and that has led to holds in 83% of games played.
Taylor Fritz may not have been in the best of forms heading into the tournament, but this is a match up that should not worry him too much. He will feel if he can serve as well as he can, he should keep the pressure on Matteo Berrettini and ultimately that should help the American through to the next Round in three or four sets.
Alexander Zverev - 7.5 games v Alexandre Muller: Dropping a set is not a massive concern for a player in the early Rounds of a Grand Slam event, but you don't want to make a habit of that. Every extra minute spent on the court at this moment will add up over the course of the fortnight taking part in a Slam and it is important for contenders to have to exert too much extra energy in the early Rounds.
This has perhaps been an issue for Alexander Zverev in the past and there will have been some frustration at dropping the second set in his First Round win. However, he rolled through the remainder of the match in a comfortable four set win and the overall form this year suggests the World Number 4 can have a big impact in New York City, where he is a former Finalist.
The draw has been kind enough for Alexander Zverev and he is a big favourite when facing Alexandre Muller in the Second Round.
The Frenchman is the World Number 77, which means he is very close to surpassing his career best Ranking which was set earlier in the year. The best performances have been on the clay courts, but Alexandre Muller has shown plenty of quality on the hard courts, albeit against the opponents he would expect to beat.
Even the First Round win here was against an opponent who is considerably higher in the World Rankings and so Muller did what was expected in his four set win. Prior to that, Muller had lost five in a row on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents and his service numbers have been disappointing in those numbers.
He may be aided by the faster conditions most players have spoken about at the US Open, especially with the hot conditions helping. However, Alexandre Muller could find himself under pressure from Alexander Zverev and the big serve of the World Number 4 may put him in a strong position to cover this line.
It is a big mark, so it will be challenging, but Alexander Zverev may have the majority of Break Points as he did in the First Round. Some of the defeats suffered by Alexandre Muller against the better players on the Tour and especially on the hard courts suggest this one could get away from him and backing Zverev for a second time in the tournament is the play.
Grigor Dimitrov - 7.5 games v Rinky Hijikata: He reached the Final at the Miami Masters earlier in the year, but early defeats in Canada and Cincinnati may have knocked some of the confidence that Grigor Dimitrov has ahead of his latest attempt to finally win a Grand Slam title.
The Bulgarian is still a member of the top ten of the World Rankings and he was a comfortable First Round winner, albeit as a significant favourite. The defeat to Alexei Popyrin in Canada is not as bad as it may have felt considering the Australian moved through the draw to win a maiden Masters title, but the Grigor Dimitrov defeat in Cincinnati is much more concerning.
Overall it has been a very solid year on the hard courts for Dimitrov, but the Third Round loss in Melbourne would have hurt and he will be expecting much better in New York City.
The match up in this Second Round at the US Open looks a decent one for Dimitrov and that is taking nothing away from Rinky Hijikata.
A four set win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the First Round will have been a boost for Rinky Hijikata, but the World Number 62 has struggled in matches where he is perhaps expecting to lose. His 1-5 record against top 50 Ranked opponents in hard court matches in 2024 backs that up and Hijikata has really struggled with his return game in those six matches.
Two of those defeats have been against Grigor Dimitrov and it is hard to ignore the fact that Rinky Hijikata has not been nearly as competitive as he would have wanted to be in those two defeats. One was before the Australian Open, but the second was earlier this month and it is going to be a huge test for Hijikata to turn things around considering he has been broken in 57% of service games played.
This will put a considerable amount of pressure on his return game, which, as already mentioned, is an area that Hijikata has struggled with when it comes to the stronger players on the Tour. It is clear that Grigor Dimitrov remains one of those and the Australian has not broken the Dimitrov serve, despite facing him twice this season.
The spread is a big one and the margin is tight- if Dimitrov starts slowly, who throws in a couple of poor service games, it will be tough to cover. However, he should be able to create a lot of Break Points and that should mean Grigor Dimitrov is in a position to win a set by a wide enough margin to be in a position to move through to the Third Round with some relative comfort.
MY PICKS: Juncheng Shang - 1.5 Sets @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Taylor Fritz - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Barbora Krejcikova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Barbora Krejcikova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
US Open Update: 4-4, - 1 Unit (16 Units Staked, - 6.25% Yield)
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