The opening day of the US Open has already given the fans of the sport some drama with a couple of upsets and some First Round matches proving to be tougher than expected.
Credit has to be given to Qinwen Zheng for fighting back and beating a quality opponent in Amanda Anisimova, although I am looking forward to seeing the latter develop and fulfil her potential. A number of personal issues have made things hard for Anisimova to do that, but hopefully she is ready for a much stronger 2025 and can start to move up the World Rankings.
Holger Rune was eliminated and a couple of veterans have called time on their careers after defeats.
Both Dominic Thiem and Diego Schwartzman should be proud of what they achieved in their careers, but will move away from the tennis court for now. There does feel like a real change all around the Tour and on Day 2 there are more players in action that are closer to the end of their careers than the start.
Mixed results on Day 1 are frustrating, especially when two matches fell into the losing column by a single game each.
A bit more luck will help as we move into Day 2 with the focus on the women's tournament as the majority of selections are from those First Round matches set to be played.
Danielle Collins - 5.5 games v Caroline Dolehide: The World Number 11 enters her final Grand Slam on the Tour and there is still a feeling that Danielle Collins has a lot more to offer. She is not that far away from her career best Ranking that was set in July 2022 and Danielle Collins won a big title in Miami earlier this year to underline her potential on the hard courts.
Playing in front of the home fans one more time in the last Grand Slam of her career is going to provide plenty of motivation for the American.
However, this is a tough First Round match for Danielle Collins against Caroline Dolehide, another player from the United States who will want to impress the home crowd. While Collins has one foot out of the professional Tour, Caroline Dolehide will be hoping that there is more to come from herself as a top 50 Ranked player and who is looking to move towards the top 40.
A run to the Semi Final in Washington shows the kind of standard that Caroline Dolehide can set, but early losses in Toronto and Cincinnati are tough to take. It also means she has lost three hard court matches in a row ahead of this US Open First Round clash against an opponent that has largely found a way to get the better of Dolehide.
That includes a relatively comfortable win at the French Open and Danielle Collins is a much happier player on the hard courts, even if she has had limited preparation for the US Open. The same can be said for Caroline Dolehide, but the latter is still finding her feet when it comes to playing some of the stronger players on the Tour and Collins remains one of those, even if retirement is now looming.
Danielle Collins has the superior serve, which is hugely important in hard court matches, and she has been able to find a way to challenge the Dolehide serve in their professional matches. She has actually won a higher percentage of points played on the Caroline Dolehide serve than the server and any similar output here will give the higher Ranked American every chance of opening her final US Open with a strong win.
Emma Raducanu - 4.5 games v Sofia Kenin: Both of these former Grand Slam Champions are searching for the form to get closer to the level that was produced when picking up the major titles.
In 2021 in her second ever main draw appearance at a Grand Slam, Emma Raducanu was able to roll through the Qualifiers and the main draw at the US Open to win the title here. The surprising run saw her move into the top ten of the World Rankings a few months later, but injury and an unwillingness to perhaps go through the hard yards have meant the career has stalled somewhat.
Instead of facing Qualifying matches to play in Toronto or Cincinnati, Emma Raducanu made a pretty bizarre decision to head back to the United Kingdom and prepare for the US Open there. Some have criticised her focus, but Raducanu is young and remains very talented and this is a decent looking First Round match for her.
Sofia Kenin won the Australian Open in 2020 and followed up by reaching the French Open Final a few months later, but injury and a complete loss of form has seen her plummet down the World Rankings. She is a former World Number 4, but Kenin is playing as the World Number 54 these days and she has reached the second week of a Grand Slam tournament just once since the beginning of 2021.
The home crowd may get behind her, but Sofia Kenin has struggled for wins on the hard courts and a 2-11 record on the surface in 2024 is very, very disappointing. Confidence looks shattered right now for the 25 year old and the hard court numbers makes it very hard to believe she can stay competitive, even if Emma Raducanu has not played a lot of tennis this month.
Prior to skipping the two Masters events, Emma Raducanu worked her way through to the Quarter Final in Washington, and a slightly more productive second serve and return game may just give the British player the edge.
Previous experiences at the US Open have to offer Raducanu some inspiration, even if she has not won a match in New York City since winning the title in 2021. The last couple of years have been every bit as difficult for Sofia Kenin and the form in the build up to the US Open has looked way below the kind of levels that the American once produced.
There may be a few breaks of serve shared out, but that stronger second serve should pave the way for Emma Raducanu to win this opening match between two relatively recent Grand Slam Champions who have lost their way.
Beatriz Haddad Maia - 2.5 games v Elina Avanesyan: Fourteen months ago, Beatriz Haddad Maia was Ranked inside the top ten, but inconsistency has perhaps hindered her progress. We have seen more of that in preparation for the final Grand Slam of the season after Haddad Maia was beaten relatively early in Toronto and Cincinnati before making a run to the Final in Cleveland.
She was not quite able to win the title, but the Brazilian should feel better about her tennis and her opening First Round match being on Day 2 at the US Open should help.
First up is a tough looking match against Elina Avanesyan who is playing on a career high World Ranking mark and the young player is improving all of the time. Earlier this year Avanesyan reached the Third Round at the Australian Open and she did make use of her Lucky Loser return to the Cincinnati main draw earlier this month, although the numbers show a player that still has some room for improvement.
The 3-4 record on the hard courts against top 50 Ranked opponents has to be respected and certainly will make Elina Avanesyan confident of her chances of upsetting this opponent. The numbers have been solid in those matches, even if Avanesyan will likely need to play stronger tennis than she is able to put together on a regular basis, but there is a way for her to win this match.
It is something that Beatriz Haddad Maia will have to respect and anything short of her own usual level will see her as a vulnerable Seeded player in the draw.
Much is going to depend on the Haddad Maia serve- this can be a big weapon for the Brazilian when she plays at her best and will put some pressure on Elina Avanesyan.
The latter is someone who has a serve that can be challenged and, although having decent return numbers, that is going to build a pressure on Avanesyan to find a way into the Haddad Maia service games.
Nothing ever seems to come easy for Beatriz Haddad Maia these days, but the performances in Cleveland are encouraging and that should put her in a good position to come through with a win and a cover. Elina Avanesyan is still growing on the Tour and is beginning to earn a bit more confidence, but we may see more from her in the big events next year and this US Open may end prematurely for her.
Naomi Osaka - 1.5 games v Jelena Ostapenko: Eight years have passed since Jelena Ostapenko and Naomi Osaka last met on the Tour and a lot has changed for both of these players.
Since that meeting at the French Open in 2016, Naomi Osaka has moved on to become a four time Grand Slam Champion, a mother, and someone who has needed to spend time away from the Tour. Injury had been an issue before motherhood, while the pressures of being a well known athlete never really sat well with Osaka and it is time that may have gotten her to appreciate being on the Tour more than she did before.
Missing a year on the Tour is challenging for any player and Naomi Osaka has admitted that she is struggling to find the consistency needed at the highest level. There have been one or two really good performances, but some very disappointing losses and it may take a bit more time for Naomi Osaka to really feel like she is in control when playing on the biggest courts.
Since Miami back in March, Naomi Osaka has only won two matches in a row at two tournaments and that has meant losing early in the main draw in Toronto and failing to Qualify for Cincinnati.
The hard court numbers are not at her 2021 levels, which is when Osaka won the last of her Grand Slam titles, but she isn't playing badly. Ultimately she is coming up short in matches, which could be attributed to the match rustiness that comes with a year out of the Tour, but this is a match up that might be actually enjoyable for Naomi Osaka.
It is expected to be a big hitting match with Jelena Ostapenko not afraid to play ultra-aggressive tennis, even when things are not quite going to plan. However, that approach can leave the Latvian vulnerable in matches and Ostapenko did suffer two disappointing losses in Toronto and Cincinnati to Lucky Losers returning to the main draw.
Two hard court titles have been won on the hard courts in January and February, but the performances on the surface have been much more erratic since then. Jelena Ostapenko is very capable on her best day and she will not lack for motivation in a match like this one, which will be played on one of the big Flushing Meadows show-courts.
The return games of both of these players have perhaps not been as strong as they would have liked, but it does feel like Naomi Osaka is the one that will get a bit more joy out of the conditions when it comes to her own service games. In an expected close match, that could be key to determining the final outcome and the feeling is that the former two time US Open Champion will find a way past Jelena Ostapenko in three sets.
Despite having to go the distance, an opportunity to cover this handicap mark should be there for the former Champion and Naomi Osaka may just use the crowd support to eventually get on top of Jelena Ostapenko in a stand out First Round match.
MY PICKS: Danielle Collins - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Emma Raducanu - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Beatriz Haddad Maia - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
US Open Update: 2-2, - 0.34 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.25% Yield)
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