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Saturday 3 August 2024

Boxing Picks 2024- Israil Madrimov vs Terence Crawford (Saturday 3rd August)

July is usually a good time to have a break in the Boxing season, although the reimagining of the sport does mean we are more spoiled as fans with plenty of decent cards being produced every weekend.

The last month has seen some of the contenders return to the ring in a bid to earn a bigger fight later in the year, while some potential star names have also been in action.

And the best news is that plenty of solid fights have already been put together for the second half of the year, culminating in what is expected to be the Heavyweight rematch between Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk.

There is no doubting the influence of the Saudi money that has entered the sport and we will see more evidence of that this weekend when the first card run under the Riyadh Season banner is produced outside of Saudi Arabia.

Another one of those events is taking place at Wembley Stadium in around six weeks time, but this weekend the eyes of the fans will turn to Los Angeles and the return of Terence Crawford.

He will be aiming to become a World Champion in the Light Middleweight Division and a win will see Bud turn his attention back to becoming an opponent for Canelo Alvarez. This is a fight that the Saudi Arabians are very keen to get on in 2025, but a loss to Israil Madrimov will temper some of the enthusiasm and so there is pressure on Crawford in moving up from the Welterweight Division where was crowned King in 2023.

Like many Saudi run cards, the undercard is a decent one too even if some of the star power of the announcement has been dampened with the removal of the Tim Tsyzu vs Vergil Ortiz Jr fight after the Australian was not able to recover from severe cuts in time.

There is still plenty for the fans to enjoy and the fighters have plenty of motivation to perform knowing that there is an undercard to fill later this year when the Heavyweight rematch between Fury and Usyk takes place.


In terms of the first six months of the 2024 season, the Boxing Picks have produced a positive return.

However, the feeling is that the overall win-loss could still be improved, and that would only strengthen the returns even more. Regardless, any season with a winning return has to be appreciated and the bounce back from the disappointing 2023 has been solid, even if the numbers have not quite reached the 2022 numbers set.

There are still five months of 2024 to go though and a chance to pick up some momentum into the next 'season' and that has to be the aim the rest of the way.



Israil Madrimov vs Terence Crawford

The last twelve months have spoilt Boxing fans with some believing this card in Los Angeles is not as strong as it might have been under the Riyadh Season banner.

Personally, the glass half full approach is still working with the kind of fights we are seeing and there is little doubt that many of those taking place on this card would not be happening without that influence from the Middle East.

Another positive for fans is the willingness to put the money into events that are not happening solely in Saudi Arabia and having an opportunity to see Terence Crawford has to be big news for the fans who will be attending.

Undisputed successes as a Light-Welterweight and Welterweight has had Bud searching for new challenges- after moving up from Light-Welterweight, Crawford quickly picked up the WBO World Title and eventually was able to dismantle Errol Spence Jr a little over twelve months ago to hold all the World Titles in the Division.

He had been waiting on Errol Spence Jr and his decision to activate a rematch, but as soon as it became clear that was not going to be the case, Bud Crawford called out Canelo Alvarez. This was an unlikely fight to be put together in 2024 and instead Crawford is going up to Light Middleweight in his bid to become a World Champion in another Division.

Terence Crawford is favoured against the Champion Israil Madrimov, but it would be foolish to overlook the obvious qualities of the undefeated Uzbek.

The dimensions of the two fighters are pretty similar with Crawford having the edge in reach, but Israil Madrimov is the naturally bigger man. All of his bouts have been in the Light Middleweight Division and Madrimov has proved to be a tough, grizzled fighter, and he will need all of that in this bout.

My personal expectation is that Israil Madrimov is going to be able to give Terence Crawford something to think about through the first quarter of this World Title fight.

He is going to come forward and look to use his natural size to cause problems, but there is a feeling that Bud Crawford is then going to begin to make the adjustments that we have seen throughout his career. The Uzbek is a quality fighter, but perhaps lacks a bit of experience at this very elite level and the style is perhaps a touch basic, which is only going to make things that much more comfortable for Crawford when the adjustments are made.

Changing things in the ring will feel more difficult for Madrimov and this is where Crawford can begin to target the body and use the counter shot to really begin to put the dent into his opponent. The Champion is a much liver opponent than some will believe and it would not be a surprise if he is leading on the cards through the first two-thirds of the contest, but Bud will be reeling him in and a spiteful fighter he has been will likely see him pushing through the gears and wear out his man.

The Points call for Terence Crawford is certainly one that looks to offer some value, but he is on an eleven fight streak of winning by Stoppage and he can force an intervention in this one too. If he does hurt Madrimov, Bud is not likely to step off, but will pour it on and the feeling is that he might do enough to wear down, break down and eventually get this one done without the cards.

The year out of the ring has to be a slight concern for Crawford fans and it would be a huge statement if he can force the first half Stoppage, but you have to note that four of the last eleven Stoppages have been before the bell for the Seventh Round. Israil Madrimov is a proud, unbeaten World Champion and one who is grizzled enough to take plenty of shots before it becomes too much and a small play on the second half Terence Crawford Stoppage is the call.


The Riyadh Season cards have been pretty loaded and this one feels the same, if perhaps not meeting the inflated expectations Boxing fans have after being spoiled over the last twelve months.

David Morrell is another up and coming Super Middleweight who has felt his career is perhaps being stalled by the hold up of all the World Titles by Canelo Alvarez, who does not sound like he has much interest in facing the unbeaten Cuban.

Instead of waiting around, Morrell is following the David Benavidez path and that means moving into the Light Heavyweight Division and fighting for the Regular WBA World Title with the Super belt held by Dmitry Bivol. The idea will be to be in a position to fight the winner of the Beterbiev-Bivol Undisputed World Title fight set for early October, whlle Morrell can operate between the two Divisions for now.

He is a massive favourite to beat Radivoje Kalajdzic, a fighter who was Stopped in the Fifth Round when facing Artur Beterbiev in 2019.

Stepping up is tough and the layers are taking no chances with the prices for this one, but David Morrell has shown a brutal streak and he should be able to match the Beterbiev victory and just put his name in line to take on the bigger fights that the Saudi Arabians may be thinking of putting together over the next nine months.


The fast moving Andy Cruz should be a comfortable winner and he will want to step up his competition following this weekend, while there is plenty of intrigue when Jared Anderson, one of the potential new stars in the Heavyweight Division with plenty of hype behind him, takes on Martin Bakole, a fighter who believes he has been avoided by the elite.

This is the fight that the layers feel is the most competitive on the card and one that will be a lot of fun for however long it lasts.


Two fighters who will forever be spoken about in the same breath thanks to June 1st 2019 will be meeting one another in what is very much a crossroads fight.

Jarrell Miller failed a drugs test when he was supposed to be facing Anthony Joshua for the World Titles at Madison Square Garden, but his misfortune was Andy Ruiz Jr's blessing and the latter upset the odds by beating Joshua in the Seventh Round.

Six months later he came in overweight for the rematch, was comfortably beaten on the cards and Ruiz Jr has fought just twice since in 2021 and 2022. A lot of fighters have claimed that Andy Ruiz Jr has priced himself out of fights in the last couple of years and it will be very difficult to restart the career if he is to be beaten by Miller on Saturday considering Big Baby is coming in off a Stoppage loss of his own.

The New Yorker has been much more active than Andy Ruiz Jr in recent times, but Jarrell Miller had been given three comfortable opponents before being paired up with Daniel Dubois just before Christmas in 2023. He was beaten around the ring and eventually Stopped in the final Round before having more out of the ring issues and Miller will know that another defeat here will mean his career is in danger.

You have to believe the quickness edge is with Ruiz Jr and that is why he is a pretty strong favourite, but his mental approach to boxing has to be questioned. Money is a motivation, but does Ruiz Jr really want to get back to the top and the two year lay off is a huge concern.

In saying that, Jarrell Miller looked really poor against Daniel Dubois and so this is an intriguing fight between two friends who know one will move onto bigger prizes, while the other might have to wonder whether the rebuild is really going to be worth putting themselves through.


The chief support is going to be provided by Isaac Cruz who faces an interesting challenger in Jose Valenzuela with the WBA Light Welterweight World Title on the line.

The mistake for Cruz and his team would be to overlook this opponent- they have been calling for a potential rematch with Tank Davis, who looks to be at a loose end come the end of the 2024 calendar year, but Jose Valenzuela is coming into the fight having ended a run of consecutive defeats with a very strong Stoppage of Chris Colbert.

The initial defeat to Colbert nine months earlier had been filled with controversy, but Jose Valenzuela made sure the judges could not do the same in the Sixth Round win last December.

He is moving up in weight to take on the challenge of Pitbull who fights for a second time in 2024 having crushed Rolly Romero to win this World Title. The key for Isaac Cruz is going to be his focus and he will have noted that Valenzuela has been Stopped before by big hitting Edwin De Los Santos.

These two are unlikely to have to go looking for the other and that should mean a really fun contest for the fans to enjoy.

The power edge may be with Isaac Cruz, but Jose Valenzuela will believe in his own and that should make for a good watch.

My edge is with Isaac Cruz who has the momentum behind him, but he has been troubled by a southpaw before and that is something that the Valenzuela team will lean into. The challenger is the taller fighter and could try and frustrate Pitbull by keeping the fight at length, but it is tough to do over Twelve Rounds and there is some history between the two which could see emotion drag Valenzuela into a fight, rather than sticking to the game plan.

Jose Valenzuela may also want to prove he is not 'chinny' but that could lead to being in dangerous positions in the ring and Isaac Cruz hits plenty hard.

Once again, the layers look to be on top of this bout, but the lean has to be that Isaac Cruz finds a big shot or two that forces this to become a firefight and ultimately that is where he should prevail.


There is a card being held in a Stadium in the United Kingdom on Saturday and the Sky Sports television cameras will head to Barnsley to see if home fighter Callum Simpson looks to win the British and Commonwealth Super Middleweight Titles.

At 14-0 and 27 years old, Simpson will be looking for a real move up the Rankings towards the World level in a Division headed up by Canelo Alvarez. The chances that the World Titles will be fracturing over the next twelve months by which time Callum Simpson will have hoped to have developed to the extent of being able to challenge for any of the titles available.

Slipping up here is not on the agenda as he faces Champion Zak Chelli who feels like he has been around a long time, but who is actually the younger fighter.

Make no mistake, there are more miles on the clock for Chelli in comparison with Callum Simpson, although the Londoner will feel that his experience is going to be telling at this level.

Zak Chelli is tough, grizzled and will not allow Callum Simpson room to breathe, but the latter has shown he is not simply a Knock Out merchant. A couple of tough Unanimous Decision wins over Ten Round distance will just show Simpson that he does have the gas tank to operate deep into fights, although he will be tested like never before.

Stopping Chelli is not going to be easy considering the strength and resolve the Champion has, but he has been beaten on the cards. Mark Jeffers showed that a little over twelve months ago when beating Chelli for the English Super Middleweight Title, and Callum Simpson can just show his quality in winning this one after the cards have been read.

MY PICKS: Terence Crawford to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.60 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Callum Simpson to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.37 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2024: 24-41, + 12.04 Units (88 Units Staked, + 13.68% Yield)

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