NBA PlayOffs 2023- NBA Finals Picks Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Games 1-7 (June 1-18)

It has been a really good NBA PlayOffs tournament with the first ever team coming through the Play In Tournament to reach the NBA Finals confirmed earlier this week when the Miami Heat just about held onto their emotions to record a seven game Eastern Conference Finals win over the Boston Celtics.

The Number 8 Seed in the Eastern Conference might be a surprise Finalist, but the Denver Nuggets have backed up their Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference to blitz past the Minnesota Timberwolves, Phoenix Suns and then sweeping the Los Angeles Lakers to make a first appearance in the NBA Finals in franchise history.

Don't think for a moment that the players are happy with that alone as Denver look to go on and secure the NBA Championship over two weeks in June and the layers have set them as the strong favourites to do that.

No one should dismiss the chances of the Miami Heat who have beaten three higher Seeded opponents in their PlayOff run, which includes knocking off the Number 1 and Number 2 Seed in the East.

Jimmy Butler will always feel he is the best player on the court, but I think the majority may actually believe it is Nikola Jokic on the Denver roster that deserves that tag. Ultimately so much is going to come down to the role players in the NBA Finals as it always does and both teams have to be really happy with what they have seen from those around their superstars throughout the last couple of months.

NBA Finals 2023- Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat

Thursday 1st June

Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets Game 1 Pick: You have to admire the way both the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat have played in the NBA PlayOffs, but this may not have been the NBA Finals that the television networks would have hoped for and especially not considering the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics were Conference Final losers.

No one involved with the Nuggets or Heat are going to care about what the networks may have wanted and they will feel they are very much deserving of their position.

It is hard to make the case about anything else when it comes to the Denver Nuggets- they finished with the top Seed in the Western Conference and have crushed the Minnesota Timberwolves, Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers for the loss of just three games. Finishing with the best record also means the Nuggets have earned home court advantage and there is absolutely no doubt that Denver is one of the best home advantages in the NBA.

The Nuggets play in an altitude that gives them a serious edge over any opponent heading to Mile High and that has been backed up with eight wins here in the post-season. Only the Memphis Grizzlies won more home games than Denver in the regular season, while it is almost impossible to ignore the fact that the Nuggets have been dominant here in the PlayOffs.

One concern has to be the fact that the Denver Nuggets have not played since May 22nd after sweeping their way past the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. Being rested is clearly a good thing, but breaking rhythm for almost two weeks is perhaps not ideal at this time of the season.

In saying that, Denver must be much happier with their approach to the NBA Finals compared with the Miami Heat who have needed six games to beat the Milwaukee Bucks, six games to beat the New York Knicks and then blew a 3-0 lead and had to win a Game 7 on the road against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. Ultimately they did avoid the historical collapse and that will have given the players some belief, but the Miami Heat have had little time between Monday and Thursday to get used to the conditions in Denver and that may play a part in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

Jimmy Butler is the headline maker for Miami, but he will need Caleb Martin and Gabe Vincent to produce the same standard that was set in the Eastern Conference Finals. It is Caleb Martin in particular who has been a huge player for the Heat and perhaps deserved the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, but the Nuggets are a much deeper team than the Boston Celtics and are unlikely to play as many poor Fourth Quarters as the Celtics managed to do.

The Miami three point shooting was firing in the Eastern Conference Finals, but the Nuggets are a lengthy team that have managed to shut down the shooters and especially at home. Denver have held teams to just 32% from the three point range on their home court and I think that is going to be key to the NBA Finals, one that I expect the Denver Nuggets to win.

I think the Nuggets will get off to a strong start in Game 1 and I have mentioned in previous Rounds how difficult teams playing out of a Game 7 have found the first game of the next Series. The Boston Celtics failed to cover in the Conference Finals in such a position and I am going to back rest over rhythm in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, with the feeling being that Miami will struggle after the emotional investment to hold off the Boston rally a few days ago.

Big home favourites have been on a good run in the NBA Finals with those favoured by at least 4.5 points on a run of 18-8-1 against the spread in the last twenty-seven in that position. Favourites in general are 9-4 against the spread in the last thirteen NBA Finals games, while home teams are 7-2 against the spread in the last nine Game 1s played in the NBA Finals.

Those wins have tended to come by a double digit margin and I do think the Denver Nuggets can find enough from their three point shooters to ease past Miami.

The Heat have really struggled in recent visits to Denver with a 1-5 record against the spread in their last six here and I think the Nuggets make a big statement to open the NBA Finals in 2023.

Sunday 4th June

Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Pick: Game 1 is in the books and it ended with another strong Denver Nuggets win with their strong home court advantage and they are favourites to beat the Miami Heat when Game 2 is played on Sunday.

The final score does not really highlight the strong performance from the Nuggets, but Denver fans will know there is even more to come from their team. A strong three point shooting team only landed 30% of those shots in Game 1 and I do think that is partly down to the rhythm being broken from a long rest between Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals and the opening game of the NBA Finals.

Now they have had 48 minutes under their belts, I do think we will see an improvement from the Denver Nuggets from the three point range, while the Heat have to make adjustments to slow down the success Denver had from within the arc.

Other adjustments will also need to be made by the Heat after a disappointing effort in Game 1, but the team may feel they can be stronger with a few more days getting used to the altitude in Denver and with the Game 7 win over the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals now almost a week ago.

Miami's big performer in the Eastern Conference Finals was Caleb Martin, but he struggled badly in the opening game of the NBA Finals. The Heat did have some good looks from the three point range, which is encouraging, but the 33% hit mark needs to be improved significantly if the Heat are going to drag these Finals back to 1-1 before heading home.

I do think both teams will be better Offensively in Game 2, but I think the depth of the Denver Nuggets is key to the Finals. I also believe they will show a lot better form from the three point range and that is going to help the home team cover in another winning effort in my opinion.

Game 2 home teams who are favoured are on a 5-1-1 run against the spread in the last seven NBA Finals played, while teams who shot at below 42% are just 5-13 against the spread in their next eighteen games in the Finals (Miami shot 41% in Game 1).

Once again it is a big spread and the Heat have constantly proved they can not only cover as a big underdog in these PlayOffs, but they can also win those games outright. However, I do think the Denver Nuggets are the toughest of the road tests they could have had and I think they will shoot a little more efficiently from three point range to cover again.

Wednesday 7th June

Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat Game 3 Pick: Listening to Steve Kerr talk glowingly about the Miami Heat adjustments in Game 2 of the NBA Finals just backs up the feeling that the Heat have one of the all-time great Head Coaches at the helm. Erik Spoelstra has not always been given the credit he deserves, but winning another NBA Championship with this current group of Heat players will raise his stock significantly even if most involved in the NBA know how good his Coaching is already.

The Game 2 win saw the Miami Heat recover from yet another big deficit on the road in these PlayOffs and this has become a feature of the team. Undrafted players will be performing with a big chip on their shoulder and that has seen the Heat overcome some mighty odds already as they became the first team to win in Denver and take the NBA Finals back to South Florida with it all tied up.

Kevin Love coming into the starting line up changed things for Miami as they can now put Jimmy Butler next to Jamal Murray, but it should not be ignored that they needed a big Fourth Quarter and a night where they managed to nail 49% of their three pointers. Gabe Vincent and Max Strus combined for 8/16 from the three point range and the likes of Love, Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson all made big contributions, but backing up that kind of shooting will not be easy.

There will certainly have been a feeling in the Denver Nuggets locker room that they are as much to blame for the result as any Miami Heat adjustment. Head Coach Michael Malone let his feelings be known publicly as he called out the Nuggets players for a lack of effort at the beginning and in the Fourth Quarter when they allowed Miami to do whatever they wanted Offensively.

You have to feel that is going to light a fire inside the players, while Malone will also have to make some adjustments to just make things easier for Jamal Murray who struggled in Game 2. Being guarded by Jimmy Butler is tough, but Michael Porter Jr had a poor outing too and even then the Nuggets were only just beaten.

Nikola Jokic scored 41 points for the Nuggets in Game 2, but, amazingly, Denver have not won a PlayOff game in which he has scored at least 40 points. While Jokic will have his impact on games, the players around him have to make the big plays and I expect the Nuggets will have been looking through the game tape and will have a much more rounded effort, especially on the Defensive side of the court.

The Nuggets have not been as strong on the road during their PlayOffs run, but that is because they have been dominant at home before losing Game 2. However, they have won games in Minnesota, Phoenix and in Los Angeles against the Lakers and I do think we will see a better Denver team in Game 3 as they look to regain home court.

Game 2 winners have struggled to back that up in Game 3 in recent NBA Finals and those teams are 3-7 against the spread in the last ten Finals. The strong three point shooting from Miami in Game 2 might be seen as a huge positive, but backing that up is the challenge and teams who have shot at 47% or better from the three point range have produce a 4-12-1 record against the spread in their next seventeen games.

Overlooking the Miami Heat has been an expensive mistake for most in the off-season, but I do think they needed a lot to go their way in Game 2 which is going to be tough to replicate. The role players have continued to step up, but Michael Malone's call out should have just refocused the Denver Nuggets and I think they will be able to win this one on the road.

Friday 9th June

Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat Game 4 Pick: Adjustments were made by the Miami Heat to take Game 2, but they were not able to replicate the strong three point shooting from that game when returning home. That proved to be too much to overcome for the Heat and they dropped Game 3 in a 15 point home defeat to give the Denver Nuggets home court advantage right back.

While the Heat have been moving things around, the Denver Nuggets looked to make more subtle changes to their approach in Game 3 compared with the losing effort in Game 2. On that day, Jamal Murray had been a little surprised by the approach Miami had taken to get him out of his rhythm, but he was much more prepared on South Beach and that meant a more aggressive role.

This time Jamal Murray was able to get into the paint and look for his own shots where they were available and he produced a triple-double, along with Nikola Jokic, to lead the way for the Nuggets.

Michael Malone will be expecting a backlash from the Miami Heat when Game 4 is played on Friday evening, but the Head Coach has to be much happier with the Defensive intensity that Denver showed. That was most evident with a dominant advantage on the boards, while the Miami role players were not able to get their three point shooting on track as highlighted by Gabe Vincent and Max Strus combining for just 2/10 from the three point mark and just 3/17 overall from the field.

While Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are going to make their impact, the Heat know it is the role players that will need to be most effective if they are going to upset the odds and win the NBA Championship.

I do expect the Heat to be better from the three point mark in this one, but it is a worry that two of the three games in the NBA Finals has seen them struggle. It feels like Miami have decided that they are going to need a heavy dose of three pointers to win these Finals and this is a make or miss League these days, even if the Denver Nuggets look more comfortable taking whatever the Heat are willing to give them.

Denver will know there is room for improvement from their side too- while Murray and Jokic dominated Game 3, Michael Porter Jr continues to struggle. There is a depth to the Nuggets roster that makes them dangerous and different bench players have stepped up to help out the two stars, but the Nuggets will hope that Porter Jr is able to find his Offensive groove, even if he is making an impact on the Defensive side of the court.

The short gap between Game 3 and Game 4 will make it tougher for these teams to make too many adjustments and there is every chance this is going to be another low scoring game.

As Michael Malone was heard saying before Game 3, Denver have largely dominated the first three games and only a massive Fourth Quarter from the Heat in Game 2 has helped them keep the NBA Finals competitive. They will need something like that on Friday and NBA Finals home underdogs have dropped to 1-6 against the spread in the last seven in this situation following Miami's home loss to the Denver Nuggets.

We haven't really seen the Nuggets get going from the three point range yet, but they have shown they can crash into the paint and find what they want Offensively. I think that will continue to be the case for the Nuggets and the more erratic Miami Heat need to be at their very best to keep up.

Even in Game 2 with the very high percentage of shots falling, Miami only just got over the line for the win and I will stick with the Denver Nuggets to put themselves on the hill for the NBA Championship with another road win.

They are known for their home advantage, but it should now be remembered that the Nuggets have won their last four road PlayOff games and I think they can get another on the board in Game 4 of the NBA Finals.

Monday 12th June

Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets Game 5 Pick: You have to credit Erik Spoelstra for making the adjustments that helped the Miami Heat steal Game 2 of the NBA Finals, but that was a game that the Denver Nuggets firmly believe they gave away. There has been no panic in the locker room and the Nuggets have just underlined their strength by producing back to back blowouts on the road to move into a commanding 3-1 lead in the Finals.

Only the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers have been able to overcome such a deficit and I think it is an extreme long shot for the Miami Heat to do the same. In fact, bringing the NBA Finals back to South Florida for a Game 6 would be a massive achievement as they once again head to Mile High City as a significant underdog.

The Game 2 win here saw the Heat recover from another double digit deficit in these PlayOffs, but it is tough to replicate how they managed to do that.

That was a day in which the Miami Heat hit 49% of their three pointers and made seventeen overall, but they have been restricted to 31% and 32% in Games 3 and 4 and have made just nineteen three pointers across those two home losses.

At this stage it is unlikely that the Miami Heat are going to change their approach too much, but they need someone to step up and take the pressure away from Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler. Gabe Vincent and Max Strus had a huge Game 2, but these two starters have combined for just 12 points in the last two games, while Caleb Martin has not been able to have the same impact on the NBA Finals as he did against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals.

With an extra day of rest between Game 4 and Game 5, Spoelstra could make some changes to the starting five, but it is still a big ask for the Miami Heat. They almost need another performance like Game 2 to merely be competitive, but that is asking a lot from the role players and I do think the Denver Nuggets have gotten a complete control of these NBA Finals right now.

I do believe they have always been comfortable with the match up, and the Nuggets have shown they can win games in different ways. The Game 4 win was the first time they have really gotten the three pointers going and different players have come off the bench to produce for the team when they have been needed.

Jamal Murray did not have a very good game in terms of points scored, but continues to make a big impact for the Nuggets and has dished out double digit assists in all four NBA Finals games. Michael Porter Jr showed one or two signs that his shot might begin to fall, while Aaron Gordon had a huge Game 4 to continue his fine play on both ends of the court.

Momentum is with the Denver Nuggets now and I would be surprised if they allowed that to slip away in front of their home fans.

Teams playing after a double digit win have improved to 18-7-2 against the spread in the last twenty-seven NBA Finals games after Denver's win in Game 4, while teams playing after a double digit win are 8-2-1 against the spread in the last eleven when into a Game 5-7.

It is extremely unlikely that the Nuggets will shoot the three ball as well as they did in Game 4, but they have shown they can beat the Miami in a number of different ways. Outside of the Fourth Quarter collapse in Game 2, Denver have been strong winners in these NBA Finals game by game and I think they can be again.

MY PICKS: 01/06 Denver Nuggets - 9 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

04/06 Denver Nuggets - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

07/06 Denver Nuggets - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

09/06 Denver Nuggets - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

12/06 Denver Nuggets - 9 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

NBA Finals Update: 3-1, + 1.73 Units (4 Units Staked, + 43.25% Yield)

Conference Finals: 2-8-1, - 6.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 56.18% Yield)

Semi Final: 14-8-1, + 4.90 Units (23 Units Staked, + 21.30% Yield)

First Round: 22-9, + 11.04 Units (31 Units Staked, + 35.61% Yield)

PlayOffs 2023: 38-25-2, + 9.76 Units (65 Units Staked, + 15.02% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2023 (May 31st)

The second Grand Slam of the 2023 season might only have completed the First Round, but it has been a tournament filled with upsets as Seeds have fallen in both draws.

By far the biggest name exiting Paris at the first hurdle is World Number 2 and Rome Masters Champion Daniil Medvedev who was beaten in a fifth set for the ninth time in twelve matches that have gone the distance. After a strong run last season at the French Open and with the Rome title in his bag, so many expected big things from Medvedev with the draw opening up thanks to Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic both being placed in the other half of the tournament.

The exit will have stung, but Daniil Medvedev might be more confident now his season is moving onto the grass and with Wimbledon set to begin in just over a month from now.

Two other Seeded players in the top twenty have also exited the men's tournament, but the women's event has lost five of those players with Maria Sakkari, a former French Open Semi Finalist, Petra Kvitova and Belinda Bencic being the most popular of the names that have been beaten.

With the shocks going on throughout the event, it is perhaps not a surprise the early Picks have been a little up and down, although I am still not sure how Sebastian Baez blew a strong winning position against Gael Monfils on Tuesday evening.

It was an entertaining match filled with drama, but Baez looked to have broken Gael Monfils when leading 4-0 and having more Break Points in the Fifth Set after taking the Fourth Set 6-1. A loss of focus, or perhaps getting tight at the winning line, saw Sebastian Baez lose his way from that moment in the match and he was beaten, although I am still not quite sure if Gael Monfils will be ready to compete in two days time having looked like he had spent all he had on court.

On Wednesday the Second Round will begin at Roland Garros and it looks like being another very hot day for the players, although still windy.

This is going to be a testing day for the players heading out onto the courts, but the favourites will be looking to avoid some of the early obstacles they have faced. Leading contenders in both the men's and women's events are out on the show courts on Day 4 of the tournament and you have to imagine the Daniil Medvedev defeat may just have refocused those players to make sure they don't also make an early exit from the second Slam of the season.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 7.5 games v Roberto Carballas Baena: The First Round match was perhaps tougher than would have been expected, but some of that was down to Stefanos Tsitsipas' own performance rather than anything Jiri Vesely brought onto the court. The former Runner Up at the French Open will know that he needs to be a little more ruthless when the Break Point chances come his way if he is going to have another deep run at Roland Garros, while this Second Round match should be more favourable for the return aspect of Stefanos Tsitsipas' game.

As comfortable as Roberto Carballas Baena is going to be on the red dirt and having only just reached his career best World Ranking last month, it is clear that the Spaniard is not really going to blitz through an opponent behind big serving. He works hard for his points and Carballas Baena is holding 76% of his service games played on the clay courts in 2023, although that number has dipped to 73% when considering his matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface over the last twelve months.

Roberto Carballas Baena has lost all three matches played on the clay against top 20 Ranked opponents over the last year and he has struggled to be really competitive in those. The strong ability to perform on the surface has meant he has been able to win points behind both the first and second serve, which is going to be important, but the pressure of doing that over and over again has also meant having to deal with Break Points and eventually he has cracked.

One of the bigger concerns for Carballas Baena has been the struggles on the return when the level of opponent has increased and someone like Stefanos Tsitsipas is very strong on the serve. This is a player who has won almost 69% of his service points played on the clay in 2023 and that is a number that will exert plenty of scoreboard pressure on his opponent having seen those service numbers lead to holds in over 85% of service games played on the clay.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has yet to win a Grand Slam because I truly believe his return is not quite up to the level of some of his main rivals, but he does tend to enjoy his best returns on the slower clay courts. He has broken in 26% of return games played on the surface in 2023 and I still think there is some room for improvement there at the French Open if he wants to go as deep into the tournament as some will expect.

In the sole meeting between these two on the professional Tour, Stefanos Tsitsipas was able to beat Roberto Carballas Baena back in 2018 in a match where he created more Break Points than his opponent.

Both are much improved since then, but I think the match up should still be on that Stefanos Tsitsipas enjoys and that should mean he is able to win and cover this big handicap mark on his way through to the Third Round.

Cameron Norrie - 5.5 games v Lucas Pouille: This is going to be the third time Lucas Pouille and Cameron Norrie are facing one another in a Grand Slam match with the Frenchman winning in Paris and the British player winning at Wimbledon.

They meet again at Roland Garros in the Second Round of the French Open and Lucas Pouille returns to a big stage having fought his way through the Qualifiers. It has been a very difficult time for the Frenchman who has admitted that he was suffering with his mental health and who has dropped as far as Number 675 in the World Rankings.

He looks to be in a better space these days, but Lucas Pouille has been lacking competitive tennis and that has perhaps contributed to his inconsistent form. Former Grand Slam Champions like Dominic Thiem, Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka will be the first to tell you how tall the mountain is to climb after injury sets them back and Lucas Pouille has to be respected as a former top ten Ranked player.

I think Lucas Pouille will take some positives from the fact he has beaten Cameron Norrie here before in 2018, although there is no doubt that Norrie has shown how much he has improved by dismissing Pouille easily enough at Wimbledon in 2021. He is a comfortable clay courter these days and Cameron Norrie won't be affected by the crowd getting into the match having needed all five sets to beat Benoit Paire in the First Round.

Cameron Norrie will be the first to admit that he was perhaps distracted in the middle of the match before rallying for the win, but I think that will just focus him for this match.

Serving better than he did in the First Round will be important for Cameron Norrie to just keep the pressure on Lucas Pouille and the momentum is with the higher Ranked player after really controlling the last two sets in the win over Benoit Paire. In those his serve looked to finally have gotten some rhythm and I do think Cameron Norrie is going to have too much for Lucas Pouille who has yet to play anyone Ranked inside the top 100 on the clay courts in 2023.

In fact Lucas Pouille has not played anyone Ranked inside the top 100 since May 2022 and I do think that becomes a factor in this match.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Cameron Norrie - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov - 6.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Lorenzo Musetti - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Jelena Ostapenko - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karolina Muchova - 5.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

French Open Update: 6-5, + 0.20 Units (22 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2023 (May 30th)

A long weekend means I can only add my selections for the matches to come on Day 3 at the French Open.

I should have longer thoughts on some of the Picks from Day 4 going forward and I will also update the First Round totals in that thread.

MY PICKS: Francisco Cerundolo - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Richard Gasquet - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Sebastian Baez - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Sorana Cirstea - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

French Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2023 (May 29th)

Sunday is going to be a long day so I am going to begin this thread with some of the selections from the early matches that are set to be played on Day 2 at the French Open.

Any additional selections will be added on Monday morning, while the Day 3 Picks post should be up at the end of play on Monday evening.

MY PICKS: Cameron Norrie - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 9.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

French Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2023 (May 28th)

The absence of Rafael Nadal has hurt the French Open, but the second major of the 2023 season still has plenty of storylines attached to it.

The organisers have been put under pressure to have more WTA matches in the showcase slots, but I do think that they are in a tough position. Some of the incidents in Madrid have been out of their control, while the Rome Masters have added to what many feel is a slightly disrespectful approach to the scheduling for the WTA Tour matches.

After having very few women's matches in the Evening Session slot that the French Open used for the first time twelve months ago, more eyes are on the approach that will be taken this year.

If I am being honest, I would be disappointed if I paid big money for a match that could potentially be over inside an hour, while some people do prefer the ebbs and flows of a best of five set match more than a best of three set match anyway. At the end of the day, the organisers do owe more to the paying public than anyone else and they have to find the balance between perceived 'fairness' and actually doing what is expected from them.

This is not an easy discussion in a world where people want to be seen to be doing the right thing even when they perhaps don't believe it is the right reasons for a decision being made. The fairest way would be to have two matches in an evening session, but clay court matches can go very long and I don't think that is the right approach either, but simply picking seven women's and seven men's matches over the course of two weeks doesn't feel correct either.

An improving WTA Tour will make it easier and I do think the stronger results produced by three top names will make the entire appeal of the Tour stronger too. Elena Rybakina, Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek are trying to create a new 'Big Three' and I do think the WTA will benefit if these three players are able to lead the way and start picking up multiple Slam titles.

I do think they are all capable of winning the title in two weeks time and all three have a clay title under their belt over the last two months, although Rybakina and Sabalenka perhaps come into the French Open with fewer health concerns than Iga Swiatek.

There will be some challengers behind these three players, but I think the confidence the top three names are playing with makes them favourites to win all of the Slams left and I do think, as mentioned, that this will benefit the Tour.

No Rafael Nadal has opened up the top of the men's tournament and Daniil Medvedev winning in Rome might have just created a new threat on the surface with the Russian player previously describing how much he hates playing on the clay.

He played well in Paris twelve months ago and I do think Medvedev is a threat to Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, while Holger Rune and Stefanos Tsitsipas will have belief in their own tennis.

I think it is going to mean a fascinating two weeks in Roland Garros which gets underway on Sunday as a number of First Round matches have been scheduled for the day.

A couple of really poor tournaments meant I have taken a step back from the Tennis Picks in the lead up to the French Open, but that is something that I will be prepared to do in 2023 in a bid to reverse the poor 2022 numbers.

There will be a thread for each day through the entirety of the Tournament and I am looking for the kind of results that I came away with from the Australian Open back in January.

Andrey Rublev - 6.5 games v Laslo Djere: He might not be considered as a genuine title contender in Paris over the next two weeks, but Andrey Rublev has reached the Quarter Final at the French Open in two of the last three seasons and I think he can come through what is an awkward looking First Round match here.

It should be noted that Andrey Rublev was a First Round loser in 2021 between the Quarter Final runs and so he might be a little vulnerable, especially against someone who is quite happy playing on the red dirt like Laslo Djere.

However, there is a gap in the level of tennis that the two of these players can produce and I think that Andrey Rublev will be able to lean on the fact that he has had the better of their previous meetings on the Tour. The match played at the US Open between these players did need to go the distance so there will be encouragement for Laslo Djere, but the latter will have to serve well and he will need a bit of help from Andrey Rublev and not hitting the kind of level he can on the clay courts.

Laslo Djere has a 3-4 record against top 50 Ranked players on the clay courts in 2023, but his numbers have taking a hit and I do think he could struggle to stay with Andrey Rublev over a best of five set match.

Andrey Rublev has broken in 32% of return games played on the clay courts in 2023 and he did win the Monte Carlo Masters, while following up with a couple of Fourth Round appearances in Madrid and Rome. He is clearly enjoying playing on the surface and Rublev has been pretty consistent against the opponents faced and I do think he can cover this handicap mark even if this match needs to go at least four sets.

Lorenzo Musetti - 6.5 games v Mikael Ymer: Plenty of headlines would have been made by Mikael Ymer in his last tournament, but none of them for good reasons after an argument with the umpire escalated to the Swedish player cracking his racquet against the umpire's chair.

It led to the Disqualification and means Ymer has not played as much clay court tennis in preparation for the French Open as he may have hoped.

The serve is not a strength for Mikael Ymer and that leaves him more vulnerable on the slower clay courts with every point being a challenge to win. He did reach the Third Round in Paris last year before being taken apart by Stefanos Tsitsipas so has to be respected, but I would expect a clay courter like Lorenzo Musetti to have too much for his opponent in this interesting First Round match.

Lorenzo Musett is into the top 20 of the World Rankings and he has long been thought of right up alongside Jannik Sinner as the future of Italian Tennis. Injury issues have perhaps hindered the progress in the last couple of years, but Musetti is very comfortable playing on the red dirt and he has the kind of numbers that suggest he will have too much for Mikael Ymer.

The difference I expect to see is that Lorenzo Musetti may get a few more cheaper points on the serve, while he can match the kind of return game that Mikael Ymer may have felt is a strength against many on the Tour.

When they met on an indoor hard court, Lorenzo Musetti was the solid winner and he did create a lot more Break Points on the day, although Mikael Ymer had twelve himself. I do think we will see a few breaks of serve in this one, but Musetti should be able to earn a few more than Mikael Ymer and I do think it will put the Italian in a position to win and cover this mark.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 6.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lorenzo Musetti - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 8.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)

Karolina Muchova @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing Picks 2023- Mauricio Wood vs Leigh Wood II (May 27th)

Robbery...

As a Boxing fan, you will have heard that word used for any result that is not one that is widely accepted, although I think this era it is part of a problem about anything that may happen.

Win today and you are spoken about amongst the very best fighters in history, but lose and some are ready to throw you on a scrapheap.

It has long been seen as a positive to hold onto your '0' as long as possible and that has actually taken away from the sport with fighters not willing to take the risky fights that really do make a legacy.

Some of that has changed recently, but this social media age is not a good one for athletes who are looking to make their mark at the highest level- while the money is bigger, I think this is also an era where people look to build someone up so they can a lot of enjoyment out of tearing them down.

Personally I hate all that- but you see it in all sports and in Boxing it is no different.

But back to that word, 'robbery'- this is what you would have heard after Vasyl Lomachenko came up short in his bid to win the Undisputed Lightweight Titles from Devin Haney.

Cards on the table- I had Lomachenko doing just enough to win the fight, but also acknowledged that the judges might not have liked what I did in what were some very close Rounds. When I am sitting and scoring a fight without distraction, I am not a fan of the 10-10 score so will always pick one or the other, but truly felt the first seven Rounds were razor thin and I think that proved to be the case with the judges favouring the body work of Haney over the sharper shooting of Lomachenko.

Looking back at the official cards, two of the judges had Devin Haney up 5-2 while the third card had the Champion leading 4-3... Now I had Lomachenko up 4-3 at that point, but, again, I do think at least two of those Rounds could have gone the other way which would have meant Haney 5-2 or at worst 4-3 so there really was not a lot in those scores.

Ultimately there will have been some frustration with Dave Moretti's card (ironically he was the one who had Haney up just 4-3 after Seven Rounds) and especially the Tenth Round, which was one of two really big Rounds for Lomachenko, but one Moretti somehow handed to Haney.

That contributed to the 116-112 score, but the two 115-113 scores underlined what had been a close fight and you cannot ignore the fact that Lomachenko admitted he took the Twelfth Round off when winning that would have meant a Majority Draw and made it impossible for Devin Haney to ignore the rematch.

Also tallying up the fight with Rounds awarded to the fighter who was given the nod on at least two of the three judges' cards would have given Devin Haney a 7-5 edge and, even though I thought Lomachenko did enough, I think you can make a case for a close win for the Champion.

But was it a fight I considered a 'robbery'... No.

I thought Vasyl Lomachenko won, but it was tight and it is not like we saw an 118-110 card handed in like when Adelaide Byrd gave in her card for the Canelo-GGG first fight, which was an absolute horrific 'home cooking' call.

This felt more like when Bernard Hopkins dropped tight Decisions to Jermain Taylor in the rematch and Joe Calzaghe- as a big Hopkins fan I thought he won both of those fights, but they were tight calls, but I don't remember anyone really believing he had been 'robbed', but had been unfortunate to be on the wrong side of the cards and perhaps had not done enough.

In Boxing we have seen so many poorer decisions than the one last week... Just two weeks ago Tony Weeks stopping a fight he should never have was worse than the call last week, but in the instant gratification era we seem to be involved in 'all or nothing' debates more than ever.

That happens in all sports and I think the word debate is not quite correct... More often people just want to talk to those that agree with their point of view than have it challenged and I think it leads to this big statements of 'robberies' and 'greatest of all time' being thrown around more than they would have been.

I had a pretty miserable week for the Boxing Picks and it means the hard work to get this year back on track has been wasted.

That is frustrating, but as a fan of the sport, this has been a week that I have enjoyed with the anticipation of what is to come.

For so long I have been waiting to hear an Undisputed Welterweight fight between Errol Spence Jr and Terence Crawford would be announced, but, like many others, I have begun to lose faith that we would ever see it before it is past it's sell by date.

To my surprise, the fight has been announced for July 29th, just a few days after Stephen Fulton and Naoya Inoue are set to meet in Japan in a very big fight too.

Boxing has not always delivered what the fans have wanted, but fights like these are certainly hitting the mark and now we just have to wait and see if the Heavyweights are going to do their part in the ring rather than talking about the big fights.

Mauricio Lara vs Leigh Wood II

A little over three months have passed since Mauricio Lara detonated a huge left hand that put Leigh Wood down hard and ultimately took his WBA World Title away in the dying embers of the Seventh Round.

Looking back on the fight, there were some hard moments for both through the first Six Rounds, but it did look like Leigh Wood had gotten control at the end of the first half of the fight and Mauricio Lara looked to be tiring.

However, Lara has proven he has power that can carry and there has been some controversy attached to the rematch with the Mexican being told by the Board that he cannot try and force himself to the Featherweight limit of 126 pounds as it would have been too dangerous.

Amazingly the Mexican has come in close to the Super Featherweight limit of 130 pounds which means the World Title has been dropped on the scale and only Leigh Wood can fight for it.

Some have suggested that Wood's team should have perhaps pulled him out of the rematch and simply fought for a vacant World Title in the weeks ahead and I think they have a point. He is fighting a dangerous opponent who is effectively operating at a Division higher than the bout should have been, while the British fighter was dropped hard and Stopped by the same opponent when they were both cutting to the Featherweight limit.

Ultimately Leigh Wood looks like he wants to take the fight and he has to be given a lot of credit for staying professional and making sure the World Title is one he can reclaim.

However, I do think this becomes a really dangerous fight and one that could end up finishing earlier than the original bout in February.

Mauricio Lara might have a bit more weight on him than he would have done if defending his World Title, but I still think he will have found it tough to push down towards 126 pounds and he was only told late in fight week to not try and do that. So while he is heavier, I do think some of the energy will have been drained and it feels like the now former World Champion is going to need to get this fight done early.

Ben Davison and Leigh Wood have to expect a fast start and he will need to be switched on from the off if the upset is going to be earned and the Nottingham man is going to become a two time World Champion. Leigh Wood is going to know that Lara has the power to switch off the lights throughout the 36 minutes he will have to spend with him in the ring and so it is going to be key to not overextend as I felt Wood did when in control three months ago.

The game plan won't be much different and I do think Mauricio Lara is going to be at his most dangerous early, but Wood showed that the body work can pay off if he can just steer clear of hooking with the hooker. I do think he is capable, but my enthusiasm for picking the upset has been lessened after the weigh in with Lara potentially being much stronger than he would have been if boiling down to the Featherweight limit.

Leigh Wood has to just take his time and box as he did for Six Rounds and two and a half minutes in February- he had hurt Lara to the body and the Mexican looked to be tiring when the big left hook landed, but this time Wood will be looking to be more patient.

For those who want to back 'repeat', I do think Mauricio Lara will likely get this done a bit earlier than last time and inside the first half of the fight as he looks to empty the tank.

However, I do think Leigh Wood could really start laying down some big punches if he can drag Lara into the second half of the contest and Wood has shown his power remains even after going deep into a bout. He Stopped Michel Conlan famously in the last Round and has done the same to Reece Mould (Ninth Round) and Can Xu (Twelfth Round) and I think Wood could find a way to get this done too at what is a very big price.

He might not take the same risks as he did to finish off Can Xu and Wood was trailing Conlan when putting him down in the Eleventh and ultimately Stopping him a Round later. This time Leigh Wood will feel he is ahead on the cards if he gets to the Championship Rounds and staying out of the Mauricio Lara way might be the best plan at that point, but I think he will want to really put on a show and I do think Leigh Wood is someone who likes to finish his opponents where he can.

All of the weigh in drama has just cooled some of the excitement for the upset as I have said, but I do think Leigh Wood might be able to take Mauricio Lara into deep waters and then drown him for a stunning win to regain his World Title.

I do think there have to be some serious questions about whether this bout should go ahead after all of the weight issues, but Leigh Wood could make them secondary... However, I do think this fight has the potential to have a terrible look for Boxing if Mauricio Lara bulldozes through Wood and hurts him badly.

There are a couple of interesting bouts on the undercard, but nothing of note when it comes to additional selections.

I think Jack Catterall will likely need the cards to beat Darragh Foley after a long lay-off, while Terri Harper is expected to win a hastily arranged fight having had her World Title defence pulled from the card on the day of the event last week.

Younger talent under the Matchroom promotional banner are also going to be featured including Campbell Hatton, but the attention will mainly be on the headline fight which should be fascinating.

Lawrence Okolie vs Chris Billam-Smith

There is a lot of respect between World Champion Lawrence Okolie and Chris Billam-Smith, which is not always the case when former gym partners end up facing off in the ring.

A Cruiserweight World Title is on the line and you have to give Lawrence Okolie credit for returning to the ring as soon as he has following a win over David Light in March. Promotional issues meant The Sauce had been left on the sidelines for too long, but he is clearly looking to make up for lost time and it did not take much for Lawrence Okolie to put his hand up when new promoter Ben Shalom had booked Chris Billam-Smith for a World Title shot at home.

Being more active and finishing his goals at Cruiserweight before moving up to Heavyweight is the plan for Lawrence Okolie and I think that has motivated him to get back into the ring for the second time in three months, which is unheard of from Champions in this era.

However, I also think he knows exactly what to expect from Chris Billam-Smith and I do think Lawrence Okolie is clearly very comfortable with the match up.

Shane McGuigan and Billam-Smith are going to have a good idea what to expect, but my problem with the Challenger is that he seems to be far too open when trying to land his own shots.

Of course you have to credit for Chris Billam-Smith to want to force the issue, but he was badly hurt in his last fight against Armend Xhoxhaj and Lawrence Okolie is certainly someone who has arguably the best power in the Division.

Sometimes Lawrence Okolie fights can be poor to watch with his jab and grab style, but before the win over David Light, the Champion had needed a Twelve Round Decision over Michael Cieslak and had previously won seven in a row inside the distance.

Working with SugarHill should mean Lawrence Okolie wants to be more aggressive with his punches and I think he was looking better against Light once getting rid of some of the ring rust.

I expect another improvement from the Champion and I do think he will know what to expect from Chris Billam-Smith.

While some think it could lead to a bit of an ugly contest, Billam-Smith is going to take chances as he is likely knows that is the best way for him to cause the upset rather than allowing Lawrence Okolie to jab and grab to another Decision.

Chris Billam-Smith has shown he is ready to take one to give one, and he showed enough resiliency to go the distance with Richard Riakporhe earlier in their careers. However, I think Lawrence Okolie is a bigger hitter than Riakporhe when the opponent comes onto him like Chris Billam-Smith is likely to do and my feeling is that this is going to be a firefight between two who know each other very well and ultimately it is the Champion who might hit too hard for the home fighter.

The feeling is that Lawrence Okolie wants to impress and I think he can remove Chris Billam-Smith before halfway in this one.

With the event being hosted in a Football Stadium, it is no surprise that we look to have a stronger looking undercard in Bournemouth than the card in Manchester.

Lewis Edmondson is favoured to score a Stoppage in his Six Rounder with Petar Nosic, but Ben Whittaker had to go the distance with the latter. That remains the sole loss Nosic has suffered and I think Edmondson may need the cards to maintain his unbeaten record.

The likes of Tommy Welch and Mace Ruegg should both also remain unbeaten, while the English Light Middleweight Title fight between Lee Cutler and Stanley Stannard is an interesting one to see where both stand before potentially moving onto British Title level.

However, the chief support to the main event looks a cracker when Sam Eggington and Joe Pigford meet one another.

At 29 years old Sam Eggington has a lot of miles on the clock and you have to believe this is the last real run he can have in his career- a win will open up some doors, but he has to take the unbeaten record from Joe Pigford who has shown plenty of punching power, although this is a step up in level compared with previous opponents.

He is a year older than his opponent, but Joe Pigford has not had nearly the same amount of gruelling bouts as Sam Eggington. Twenty wins have been placed on the record and nineteen of those have been in Stoppages, but Eggington is going to be the toughest challenge faced by Joe Pigford and clearly has big ambitions of his own.

The unbeaten has only been past Six Rounds once and you do have to wonder how Joe Pigford will react if Sam Eggington is still in there firing back shots after halfway of this fight.

It is almost certainly the case that Sam Eggington will have taken some big shots already by that point with his approach, but I think Pigford is also going to be tested and this looks a fight that will eventually see one of the two broken down and Stopped.

You do have to respect the fact that Sam Eggington has only ever been Stopped twice in the eight losses he has suffered, but he won't be hard to find in any fight he is in and Joe Pigford is confident his power will tell. At the same time, Eggington may feel taking Pigford into the later Rounds will give him a big edge and I think it will be a big surprise if this fight hits the final bell.

The amount of time Joe Pigford has spent out of the ring is a concern, so he could take a couple of Rounds to warm up and backing one of the fighters to secure a second half Stoppage looks to be the play.

Luis Alberto Lopez vs Michael Conlan

The Featherweight Division has really been heating up over the last couple of years and over the next eighteen months I would expect to see some Unifications and potentially a move towards finding an Undisputed Champion at 126 pounds.

Luis Alberto Lopez is on the road again this weekend and he is back in Great Britain having won the IBF Featherweight World Title from Josh Warrington.

This time he faces Michael Conlan in another hostile environment and it is going to be interesting to see what the Northern Irishman has learned from his late loss to Leigh Wood when leading on the cards.

Winning on Saturday will put Conlan in a position to earn the rematch with Wood with two belts on the line if the latter is able to win in Manchester around an hour after this World Title fight in Belfast is concluded. Michael Conlan has won a couple of fights since the defeat to Leigh Wood in a Fight of the Year contender, but this is another big test for him to show that he has really exorcised any demons that remained after a tough defeat.

The Champion won his World Title in a Majority Decision against Josh Warrington, although I think the win was by a clearer margin than the judges thought on the day. A lot of the blame has to be given to Warrington who started very slowly, but I think Michael Conlan can find enough successes early to put some Rounds in the bank.

He will have to be aware of the awkwardness of Luis Alberto Lopez, but I do think Michael Conlan is a quality Boxer and can do enough to rack up the points. He has more pop than some believe, which is something that Lopez will have to be aware of, and I think Conlan can use the energy of the home crowd to come through a coupe of rough moments and win a first World Title.

I think that will most likely come on the cards, if it does indeed come, but just backing Michael Conlan to find the win might be the best approach.

There is a decent undercard with some local talent involved, but the chief support on this card is another Featherweight clash on a Saturday filled with fights from this Division. While two British fighters are looking to become World Champions in the Division, Nick Ball will be looking to keep up the momentum which has him surging up the World Rankings.

Nick Ball already believes he is ready to take on the World Champions and he will have a chance to make a statement before the IBF World Title is on the line when taking on unbeaten South African Ludumo Lamati.

This is a big opportunity for Lamati, but he will be fighting outside his home nation for only the second time.

He is the taller man, like many who take on Nick Ball in this Division, but Ludumo Lamati will have to be wary of the power that the British fighter has shown.

You can't discount the motivation the South African will have knowing he will be in line for a World Title shot if he can upset Nick Ball, but I think the latter is arriving in Belfast to make a statement and could show off the punching power early in this fight.

MY PICKS: Leigh Wood to Win Between 7-12 @ 17.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

Lawrence Okolie to Win Between 1-6 @ 5.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Lewis Edmondson to Win By Decision/Technical Decision @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Sam Eggington-Joe Pigford to End Between 7-12 @ 2.87 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Michael Conlan to Win @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Nick Ball to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.87 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 26-45, - 12.22 Units (133 Units Staked, - 9.02% Yield)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Picks 2023- Games 5-7 (May 25-29)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Pick- Games 5-7

It has been a strange NBA Conference Finals and the television networks must be glad we have at least one of those Series going into Game 5, especially with the NBA Finals not scheduled to start until June 1st.

The Denver Nuggets making the NBA Finals is perhaps not what the higher ups in television would have hoped for, but the ratings are potentially going to take a big hit if we have to wait so long for the NBA Finals to start and if the Miami Heat, not the Boston Celtics are taking part.

And in reality it is going to take a history making effort from the Boston Celtics to earn back to back NBA Finals appearances from 3-0 down in the Eastern Conference Finals, although they have at least managed to force a Game 5 back at home.

It has also been a frustrating time for my NBA Picks through the Conference Finals- I am 2-5-1 so far in the Conference Finals, but the irritation is that four of the selections have produced a 0-3-1 return despite losing by a combined FOUR points.

That includes both Game 4 selections finishing under the total by a combined 1.5 points, which is remarkable really.

Oh well, it has been a positive PlayOffs and I am looking to get back on the right road through the remainder of the Eastern Conference Finals, although it is going to be a losing round for the selections. Fortunately the opening two Rounds have produced strong results and that will at least mean going into the NBA Finals looking to build on numbers rather than rallying.

Thursday 25th May

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: The NBA PlayOffs have had a day off with the Western Conference Finals swept by the Denver Nuggets, but there is going to be a Game 5 in the Eastern Conference Finals after the Boston Celtics put in a big effort to bring the Series back home after falling into a 3-0 hole.

There is still a tall mountain for the Celtics to climb knowing that not one team in the history of the NBA have rallied from 3-0 down in a best of seven Series to progress. However, the team have kept talking about 'one game at a time' and Marcus Smart did warn the Miami Heat to not allow Boston to 'get one' ahead of the Game 4 played on the road on Tuesday.

The Celtics have got one now and there were positive signs from the Game 4 win, although they have dug themselves into a deep hole and any kind of day where the shooting is slightly down will likely mean elimination. That is a pressure that the players are not going to be that used to dealing with, although avoiding a sweep is a big first step on the road to recovery.

I have to believe the Miami Heat are disappointed that they did not close the Series out at the first time of asking, but they will also be pretty comfortable with the way the Eastern Conference Finals have shaped up. They have already won twice on the road against the Boston Celtics so I am not expecting Miami to be feeling that much pressure here, but Jimmy Butler and his team will not want to enter a Game 6 or a Game 7 so there is something for them to have to balance out mentally and physically.

Game 4 was clearly the worst shooting day that the Miami Heat have had in the Conference Finals, but they will believe that is an exception rather than a rule for the remainder of this Series.

The Heat only managed to hit eight shots from the distance at 25% on Tuesday, but this team have shown they can be more productive than that. Gabe Vincent did roll his ankle and that will be a concern for Miami considering the kind of impact he has had already, and Miami will need him and Caleb Martin to keep picking up the slack for the team.

Boston might have actually worked out a way to slow down Jimmy Butler, and that will be important to them, although the star Miami player will know he missed some open looks in Game 4 and those are unlikely to be repeated. However, it has also been clear throughout this Series that the role players are going to be key and that is where the Heat have had a clear advantage up until Game 4 when the likes of Marcus Smart and Al Horford got going.

You can make a case for picking either side on the spread- the Celtics are down a couple of points from Game 2 and the higher Seed and the favourite have been strong plays in recent Game 5s in the Conference Finals.

However, Miami have shown they can compete with the Celtics here and have won twice as a big underdog, while the team that lost Game 4 have been very good at covering the mark set in Game 5.

Instead I am going to go back to the well at least one more time with this one to surpass the total games line set, even if I have been punched in the gut with each of the last two games played in the NBA PlayOffs finishing below the number by just 1.5 points combined.

It includes needing one more point in Game 4 to see the total beaten, but I do think both teams have shown they can score plenty of points and I expect Miami to have a better three point shooting day in this one compared with Tuesday. You know the Celtics will not shy away from hoisting up plenty of three pointers of their own and I do think the Offensive game plans are set and have proven to be successful.

Miami also only had one Offensive rebound in Game 4 and grabbing those can lead to more trips to the Foul Line, which will contribute to this one heading over the line set.

Both games played here in the Eastern Conference Finals have been high-scoring affairs and I will look for this one to go the same way.

Saturday 27th May

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 6 Pick: There has not been a moment when the Boston Celtics have acted like they have 'nothing to lose' in the Eastern Conference Finals, even when the team fell into a 3-0 hole. The players would have known what kind of reaction they would have gotten from the fans if they were not able to at least avoid the sweep, but the players have also made it clear to the Miami Heat that if they 'got one', the Finals is far from over.

Poor Fourth Quarters proved costly in Game 1 and Game 2, but the blowout in Game 3 really stung and Marcus Smart even stated to the Heat players that there is no need for so much trash-talking considering Boston beat Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals twelve months ago. I think that trash-talking has just fired up some of the Boston players and winning consecutive games has given the Number 2 Seed the momentum.

And it is not just Boston winning games, but they have been blowing right through the Heat in the last two games, which has shifted the pressure onto Miami as they look to avoid becoming the first team in NBA history to lose a best of seven Series once moving into a 3-0 lead.

The pressure is building, although Jimmy Butler gladly told reporters that the team is fine and they will be closing the door in Game 6. He has also 'guaranteed' the Heat will make the NBA Finals, but injuries to Tyler Herro and, more recently, Gabe Vincent are hurting.

Gabe Vincent has been immense as a third option for the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals, but hurt himself in Game 4 and missed Game 5 entirely. It is not a coincidence that was also the game with the lowest points total for the Miami Heat as others have not been able to step in and replicate what Vincent brought to the team, while veteran Kyle Lowry came into the starting line up and was terrible.

The status remains questionable for Vincent, but I think the feeling was that he was close to being ready for Game 5 and I do think the Miami Heat will have him back. However, if he is not at 100%, I do think the Heat are going to have to play a lot better Defensively and also hope that the Boston role players slow down.

Earlier in the Eastern Conference Finals, the likes of Al Horford, Marcus Smart and Derrick White struggled and that put too much on the shoulders of Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown. Those three players combined for 76 points through the first three games of the Eastern Conference Finals, but all have rediscovered their mojo and have produced 92 points combined in the two wins.

It was Smart and White that led the scoring for the Celtics in Game 5 as they pummelled Miami from the three point range and they have clearly found their rhythm from the distance.

Boston are the superior team and they are going to be very difficult to beat if they are hitting their three pointers at 40% or better as they have in the last two games. This is a team that will hoist up so many of those shots that a rhythm from the range opens things up for Tatum and Brown to take over and I do think the Celtics are in a position to force a Game 7 with a second win on the road in South Florida.

You have to believe that the Heat are going to pick up their level being back at home, but Jimmy Butler is being harassed and not finding too many open looks, while Bam Adebayo has really been struggling since a huge Game 2 effort. Ultimately the Heat role players are not performing as they did and the Celtics can make it three in a row on Saturday evening when Game 6 is scheduled to take place.

I will note that four of the last five teams who had a chance to close out a Conference Finals in Game 6 have managed to do that and two of those have been in upset wins like the one Miami are chasing this time.

However, I also think the Celtics have found the necessary adjustments to get back into the Eastern Conference Finals and they can do enough to win this one and bring the Series back to Boston for an epic Monday night clash.

Monday 29th May

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 7 Pick: It has been a remarkable Eastern Conference Finals, but Game 6 might have been the best of the games played.

For so long it looked like the Boston Celtics were on course for a big win in Game 6- they led by double digits with just four minutes remaining in the Fourth Quarter- but they were not able to finish off the Miami Heat. Amazingly the Heat found a way to lead with three seconds on the clock and the Number 8 Seed looked on course to join the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals, but an Offensive Rebound tip-in from Derrick White saved the Celtics at the buzzer and forced this Game 7 back at home.

They are just the the third team to have rallied from 3-0 down to earn a Game 7 spot, but the Celtics will be aware that there has yet to be a NBA team who have recovered to win a Series from being in a deep hole. This is going to bring some pressure onto the court, but the Celtics are experienced and they will look back twelve months when they beat the Miami Heat in a Game 7.

This is the first time a team that trailed 3-0 will be hosting Game 7 and I am not surprised that the Boston Celtics are considered strong favourites.

Gabe Vincent was back for the Heat and he was a part of a high percentage three point effort which ultimately allowed Miami to stick with the Boston Celtics.

I do think Game 7 will come down to which of these teams is most productive from the long range, but the Boston Celtics have proved something to themselves by winning a game when they have struggled with their three point shooting. In Game 6 the Celtics only managed seven long range points compared with Miami's fourteen, but in the previous two games Boston had scored seventeen more three pointers than their opponent.

If Boston can get back on track with their three point shooting, I do think they have the edge at home and teams that won Game 6 are on a 3-2 run against the spread in Game 7 of the Conference Finals.

Of course the Celtics are playing with a different kind of pressure, but I am not sure the Heat can replicate the shooting they produced from long range in Game 6 and ultimately that will see Miami make history for the wrong reasons.

MY PICKS: 25/05 Boston Celtics-Miami Heat Over 215.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

27/05 Boston Celtics - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

29/05 Boston Celtics - 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Conference Finals Update: 2-8-1, - 6.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 56.18% Yield)

Semi Final: 14-8-1, + 4.90 Units (23 Units Staked, + 21.30% Yield)

First Round: 22-9, + 11.04 Units (31 Units Staked, + 35.61% Yield)

PlayOffs 2023: 36-17-1, + 15.94 Units (54 Units Staked, + 29.52% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2023- Devin Haney vs Vasyl Lomachenko (May 20th)

While the Heavyweight Division remains stagnant, the lower weight classes are continuing to offer up some big fights to keep us Boxing fans happy with the sport.

We should have really seen the Undisputed Heavyweight World Title decided last month, but instead it is another week where we seem to be back into social media posts about one another rather than actually signing a contract to settle things inside the ring.

The breakdown of Oleksandr Usyk's talks with Daniel Dubois for his mandatory defence of the WBA World Title has followed on the heels of Tyson Fury's rumoured bouts with Zhilei Zhang and Andy Ruiz both seemingly becoming impossible to make too. It is all a big disappointment and the Saudi Arabia tournament that has been rumoured is to take place in the final quarter of the year and ultimately I think we are all bored off the lack of movement at the top of the Heavyweight Division.

Over the next two weeks we are going to see World Titles defended at Cruiserweight and in the Featherweight Divisions, while there is a pretty big Undisputed fight taking place in the women's side of the sport.

However, all are under the cloud of the super-fight between Devin Haney and Vasyl Lomachenko for all of the World Titles in the 135 Division and that takes place this weekend in Las Vegas.

All we want as fans is to see the best fighting the best and this weekend it is certainly going to be a headline fight that should be drawing attention from all in the sport.

Last weekend proved to be one with a slight profit produced for the Boxing Picks and that has dragged the total very close to moving back into the black for the season.

I was fortunate with the extremely controversial Stoppage awarded to Rolly Romero and I do think he is either going to have to pay the WBA organisation a lot of money to be protected, or he is going to be found out very quickly.

He has been ordered to face Ohara Davies next and I think that is a fight that the British fighter will feel he can win and then perhaps look for the rematch with Josh Taylor down the line.

Janibek Alimkhanuly battered an overmatched Steven Butler far earlier than I thought he might and has called out some of the big names in the Middleweight Division, but I am still not convinced that he is as good as he thinks. Butler was made to order, but Denzel Bentley showed what can be achieved against this 'boogeyman', although I don't believe the other Champions will be rushing to face him either.

Devin Haney vs Vasyl Lomachenko

I am still not sure Devin Haney gets the credit that he should do, but that is largely down to what is a relatively poor resume, depending on how high you rate the fighters he has beaten to become Undisputed at Lightweight.

Back to back wins over George Kambosos Jr are decent enough, but, again, this also depends on how highly you rate the Australian.

His win over Teofimo Lopez made Kambosos Jr, but he had won a couple of Split Decisions against Mickey Bey and Lee Selby prior to that and I think the win had a lot more to do with Lopez being out of sorts than George Kambosos Jr suddenly becoming one of the top fighters in the Division.

I will never take anything away from someone who did what George Kambosos Jr did, but ultimately that is the best win on Devin Haney's resume and it is hard to shake off the way he was rocked to his boots against Jorge Linares.

The latter had dropped Vasyl Lomachenko previously, but that was in a fight three years before he faced Devin Haney and Jorge Linares was Stopped by The Matrix.

Much like it did for Teofimo Lopez, this is a fight that could really cement Devin Haney as one of the best young fighters in the sport. You would think being an Undisputed Champion would have done that, but a win over Lomachenko would really raise his stock and Devin Haney could be set for some monster fights in the 135 and 140 pound Divisions in the months ahead.

I have so much respect for Vasyl Lomachenko, but he is challenging himself at the 135 pound limit and the veteran is only fighting for the fourth time since losing to Teofimo Lopez in 2020. He blamed a shoulder injury that day, but Lomachenko did not look completely himself in his last fight against Jemaine Ortiz and that means he will be entering this fight as the underdog for the first time in his professional career.

The cards were wider than they should have been in the win over Ortiz, but I do wonder if Vasyl Lomachenko was trying not to give too much away and scare off any of the big names in the Division. The fact he was facing a sparring partner might have meant Lomachenko was prepared to do just enough to win and I do think we will see a much better version of the Ukrainian in the ring on Saturday.

I can understand why the prices are what they are for this fight with Vasyl Lomachenko being the smaller fighter and Devin Haney's tactics of jabbing and grabbing could be difficult to deal with. While not the flashiest fighter out there, Devin Haney is comfortable with the basics of boxing and may feel that is enough to just contain the Vasyl Lomachenko threat and win this one on the cards, even if the promotional side of the fight means Haney will talk up his ambition of going through the gears to force a Stoppage.

My feeling is that Haney will not want to take too many risks with someone who can find some very strange angles from which to land and it is the shot that you don't see which can cause immense damage.

Vasyl Lomachenko has been guilty of some slow starts in recent bouts, which could be a sign of age catching up with him, but he can ill-afford one in this World Title bid. It was the slow start that cost him against Teofimo Lopez, but I expect the smart team behind Lomachenko to have accepted that and that could be key to the outcome of this one.

As good as Devin Haney is with the fundamentals, I do think that will aid Vasyl Lomachenko who will likely not need five or six Rounds to 'download data' to see what is in front of him.

Ultimately it could come down to how much leeway the referee gives Devin Haney when he goes into holding mode- if Vasyl Lomachenko is able to just work a bit inside, he could have some successes and may be ready to turn back the clock and earn the upset.

I am guessing the smart money is on Devin Haney to win a Decision, but a small interest in Vasyl Lomachenko just showing Haney the levels that he has yet to reach has to be the play.

A strong undercard will be supporting the main event in Las Vegas and that includes the return of Oscar Valdez who has been absent from the ring for thirteen months since losing for the first time as a professional against Shakur Stevenson.

The American has since left the 130 pound Division and Oscar Valdez was supposed to have challenged Emanuel Navarrete for the WBO World Title earlier this year before being forced out with an injury.

A good decision was made to get back into the ring for a 'tune up' ahead of that World Title bid, although don't let Adam Lopez hear this fight described as that. He has followed Oscar Valdez up into the Super Featherweight Division, but Lopez has lost two of his last four fights, while he was also Stopped in the Seventh Round when facing Valdez in November 2019.

It was a premature Stoppage on the day, but Adam Lopez was hurt and I do think Oscar Valdez can break him down for a second half Stoppage again as he shakes off the ring rust.

A big punching crossroads fight between Raymond Muratalla and Jeremiah Nakathila could be the one that fans are talking about in the morning.

Both are chasing big fights in the Lightweight Division and the winner will be looking to make a statement.

The younger fighter is the favourite, but Muratalla has not been in the ring with someone like Jeremiah Nakathila before and I think this is going to be a really good watch.

With thirty-three Stoppages from forty-two fights between them, I think someone is going to be broken down in the second half of this one.

There is also a vacant Super Flyweight World Title on the line as Andrew Moloney looks to join brother Jason as a WBO World Champion, albeit in the Division below. However, Junto Nakatani is a heavy handed unbeaten fighter that has been climbing the Rankings and I think he will outwork Moloney on the cards.

Katie Taylor vs Chantelle Cameron

Instead of Amanda Serrano and a Stadium, Katie Taylor is fighting at home for the first time in an Arena and she is going up in weight to become an Undisputed World Champion in a second Division.

Take nothing away from her career, but I do think Taylor has benefited from being in two minute Rounds and having Ten Round Championship bouts.

Early on in her career I do think Katie Taylor would have been ok operating with the extra minutes in the ring, but over the last couple of years she has been in tight, competitive fights and I do think the minutes she would have been doing as a male fighter would have likely meant the unbeaten run was long behind her.

Other female fighters have spoken about the desire to move to three minute Rounds and even Twelve Round contests, but this is something that Katie Taylor has been pretty opposed to doing. I definitely think she would have been beaten in that hard Fifth Round against Amanda Serrano with the extra minute to deal with, but Taylor should be credited for being an inspiration to so many.

She is the 'A' side despite Chantelle Cameron going into the bout as the Undisputed Champion at Light Welterweight, but Katie Taylor is the draw as she looks to add a host of World Titles to those she holds at Lightweight.

Unsurprisingly there are common opponents between these unbeaten fighters considering the lack of depth in women's boxing and the ease that fighters seem to go up and down the Divisions compared with the men's side of the sport.

Being at home means that Katie Taylor is going to be getting the lion's share of the support and I do think that can sway the judges. At some point Taylor is going to just get 'old' in the ring and Chantelle Cameron is more than good enough to win a fight like this one with the natural weight and size in her favour, but in these two minute Rounds there is enough chance for Katie Taylor to come in and shoot some combinations and use her footwork to largely stay out of the way.

I expect Taylor to start fast and win the majority of the opening Five Rounds, but Chantelle Cameron to find more success in the second half of the fight. If the Light Welterweight Undisputed Champion can steal a Round or two early, Chantelle Cameron can win this one, but opposing Katie Taylor on the cards is not easy considering some of the tight wins she has had in her career.

Good luck to the judges who call a close fight against Taylor in Dublin, but I do think the home fighter will win her Rounds clearly enough to eventually come through with a Decision win.

The undercard features a number of Irish fighters, while the chief support is from Terri Harper as she looks to defend her Light Middleweight World Titles against First Lady Cecilia Braekhus.

Two losses to Jessica McCaskill in Undisputed fights in the Welterweight Division should have ended Braekhus' time at the top and at 41 years old I am not sure she has enough intensity to win a fight that is likely to go to the cards.

I am not a big fan of Harper who has been guided away from danger for the majority of her career and has been beaten by Alycia Baumgardner and should have lost to Natasha Jonas. Her handlers have likely picked this as a relatively straight-forward defence against an opponent who might not be able to match Terri Harper's output.

I would love to pick Cecilia Braekhus to win this one at the price, but I think she has been far too inactive over the last three years and this looks like a nice payday ahead of retirement.

The fight of most intrigue on the card looks to be the one between Dennis Hogan and JJ Metcalf and this feels like a crossroads fight for two who will be hoping World Titles will soon open up in a loaded Division.

Dennis Hogan has been in with the tougher company having lost to Jaime Munguia, Jermall Charlo and Tim Tszyu, while JJ Metcalf has losses to Ted Cheeseman and Kieron Conway on the resume.

An upset win over Kerman Lejarraga has just reinvigorated his career, and I do think this is going to be a fan friendly fight with both Metcalf and Hogan likely going to be standing in the pocket and trading.

I am surprised the 'Champion' is the underdog, but I think Hogan was a little fortunate to beat Sam Eggington with the home nod perhaps the key.

In this one I can see one of these fighters just running out of steam in the second half of the contest as the punching output eventually finds a breakthrough in what should be a really good watch.

Unbeaten home fighter Caoimhin Agyarko can return from a long injury lay off to beat Grant Dennis early, while huge prospect Gary Cully should keep the momentum going against Jose Felix.

His last couple of outings have raised his profile, but Cully may need a few more Rounds to break down Felix who has taken Tyrone McKenna and Sandor Martin to the cards in his last two fights.

Paddy Donovan has been frustrated with his partnership with Top Rank and has decided to part way and join Matchroom. He fights under this banner for the first time, and he can go through the gears having needed just a single Round to win on April 1st, while Sam O'maison has taken the likes of Dalton Smith into the Sixth Round before being Stopped.

Another continuing his progress in the professional ranks is Thomas Carty and the Heavyweight can break down Jay McFarlane in the second half of this Eight Rounder.

MY PICKS: Vasyl Lomachenko to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 4.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Oscar Valdez to Win Between 6-10 @ 2.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Raymond Muratalla-Jeremiah Nakathila to Finish Between 6-10 @ 2.62 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Junto Nakatani to Win By Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Katie Taylor to by Decision/Technical Decision @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)

Dennis Hogan-JJ Metcalf to Finish Between 7-12 @ 4.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Caoimhin Agyarko to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Gary Cully to Win Between 6-10 @ 5.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Paddy Donovan to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Thomas Carty to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.25 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 25-36, - 0.22 Units (115 Units Staked, - 0.001% Yield)