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Saturday, 27 May 2023

Boxing Picks 2023- Mauricio Wood vs Leigh Wood II (May 27th)

Robbery...

As a Boxing fan, you will have heard that word used for any result that is not one that is widely accepted, although I think this era it is part of a problem about anything that may happen.

Win today and you are spoken about amongst the very best fighters in history, but lose and some are ready to throw you on a scrapheap.

It has long been seen as a positive to hold onto your '0' as long as possible and that has actually taken away from the sport with fighters not willing to take the risky fights that really do make a legacy.

Some of that has changed recently, but this social media age is not a good one for athletes who are looking to make their mark at the highest level- while the money is bigger, I think this is also an era where people look to build someone up so they can a lot of enjoyment out of tearing them down.

Personally I hate all that- but you see it in all sports and in Boxing it is no different.

But back to that word, 'robbery'- this is what you would have heard after Vasyl Lomachenko came up short in his bid to win the Undisputed Lightweight Titles from Devin Haney.

Cards on the table- I had Lomachenko doing just enough to win the fight, but also acknowledged that the judges might not have liked what I did in what were some very close Rounds. When I am sitting and scoring a fight without distraction, I am not a fan of the 10-10 score so will always pick one or the other, but truly felt the first seven Rounds were razor thin and I think that proved to be the case with the judges favouring the body work of Haney over the sharper shooting of Lomachenko.

Looking back at the official cards, two of the judges had Devin Haney up 5-2 while the third card had the Champion leading 4-3... Now I had Lomachenko up 4-3 at that point, but, again, I do think at least two of those Rounds could have gone the other way which would have meant Haney 5-2 or at worst 4-3 so there really was not a lot in those scores.

Ultimately there will have been some frustration with Dave Moretti's card (ironically he was the one who had Haney up just 4-3 after Seven Rounds) and especially the Tenth Round, which was one of two really big Rounds for Lomachenko, but one Moretti somehow handed to Haney.

That contributed to the 116-112 score, but the two 115-113 scores underlined what had been a close fight and you cannot ignore the fact that Lomachenko admitted he took the Twelfth Round off when winning that would have meant a Majority Draw and made it impossible for Devin Haney to ignore the rematch.

Also tallying up the fight with Rounds awarded to the fighter who was given the nod on at least two of the three judges' cards would have given Devin Haney a 7-5 edge and, even though I thought Lomachenko did enough, I think you can make a case for a close win for the Champion.


But was it a fight I considered a 'robbery'... No.

I thought Vasyl Lomachenko won, but it was tight and it is not like we saw an 118-110 card handed in like when Adelaide Byrd gave in her card for the Canelo-GGG first fight, which was an absolute horrific 'home cooking' call.

This felt more like when Bernard Hopkins dropped tight Decisions to Jermain Taylor in the rematch and Joe Calzaghe- as a big Hopkins fan I thought he won both of those fights, but they were tight calls, but I don't remember anyone really believing he had been 'robbed', but had been unfortunate to be on the wrong side of the cards and perhaps had not done enough.


In Boxing we have seen so many poorer decisions than the one last week... Just two weeks ago Tony Weeks stopping a fight he should never have was worse than the call last week, but in the instant gratification era we seem to be involved in 'all or nothing' debates more than ever.

That happens in all sports and I think the word debate is not quite correct... More often people just want to talk to those that agree with their point of view than have it challenged and I think it leads to this big statements of 'robberies' and 'greatest of all time' being thrown around more than they would have been.


I had a pretty miserable week for the Boxing Picks and it means the hard work to get this year back on track has been wasted.

That is frustrating, but as a fan of the sport, this has been a week that I have enjoyed with the anticipation of what is to come.

For so long I have been waiting to hear an Undisputed Welterweight fight between Errol Spence Jr and Terence Crawford would be announced, but, like many others, I have begun to lose faith that we would ever see it before it is past it's sell by date.

To my surprise, the fight has been announced for July 29th, just a few days after Stephen Fulton and Naoya Inoue are set to meet in Japan in a very big fight too.

Boxing has not always delivered what the fans have wanted, but fights like these are certainly hitting the mark and now we just have to wait and see if the Heavyweights are going to do their part in the ring rather than talking about the big fights.



Mauricio Lara vs Leigh Wood II

A little over three months have passed since Mauricio Lara detonated a huge left hand that put Leigh Wood down hard and ultimately took his WBA World Title away in the dying embers of the Seventh Round.

Looking back on the fight, there were some hard moments for both through the first Six Rounds, but it did look like Leigh Wood had gotten control at the end of the first half of the fight and Mauricio Lara looked to be tiring.

However, Lara has proven he has power that can carry and there has been some controversy attached to the rematch with the Mexican being told by the Board that he cannot try and force himself to the Featherweight limit of 126 pounds as it would have been too dangerous.

Amazingly the Mexican has come in close to the Super Featherweight limit of 130 pounds which means the World Title has been dropped on the scale and only Leigh Wood can fight for it.

Some have suggested that Wood's team should have perhaps pulled him out of the rematch and simply fought for a vacant World Title in the weeks ahead and I think they have a point. He is fighting a dangerous opponent who is effectively operating at a Division higher than the bout should have been, while the British fighter was dropped hard and Stopped by the same opponent when they were both cutting to the Featherweight limit.

Ultimately Leigh Wood looks like he wants to take the fight and he has to be given a lot of credit for staying professional and making sure the World Title is one he can reclaim.

However, I do think this becomes a really dangerous fight and one that could end up finishing earlier than the original bout in February.

Mauricio Lara might have a bit more weight on him than he would have done if defending his World Title, but I still think he will have found it tough to push down towards 126 pounds and he was only told late in fight week to not try and do that. So while he is heavier, I do think some of the energy will have been drained and it feels like the now former World Champion is going to need to get this fight done early.

Ben Davison and Leigh Wood have to expect a fast start and he will need to be switched on from the off if the upset is going to be earned and the Nottingham man is going to become a two time World Champion. Leigh Wood is going to know that Lara has the power to switch off the lights throughout the 36 minutes he will have to spend with him in the ring and so it is going to be key to not overextend as I felt Wood did when in control three months ago.

The game plan won't be much different and I do think Mauricio Lara is going to be at his most dangerous early, but Wood showed that the body work can pay off if he can just steer clear of hooking with the hooker. I do think he is capable, but my enthusiasm for picking the upset has been lessened after the weigh in with Lara potentially being much stronger than he would have been if boiling down to the Featherweight limit.

Leigh Wood has to just take his time and box as he did for Six Rounds and two and a half minutes in February- he had hurt Lara to the body and the Mexican looked to be tiring when the big left hook landed, but this time Wood will be looking to be more patient.

For those who want to back 'repeat', I do think Mauricio Lara will likely get this done a bit earlier than last time and inside the first half of the fight as he looks to empty the tank.

However, I do think Leigh Wood could really start laying down some big punches if he can drag Lara into the second half of the contest and Wood has shown his power remains even after going deep into a bout. He Stopped Michel Conlan famously in the last Round and has done the same to Reece Mould (Ninth Round) and Can Xu (Twelfth Round) and I think Wood could find a way to get this done too at what is a very big price.

He might not take the same risks as he did to finish off Can Xu and Wood was trailing Conlan when putting him down in the Eleventh and ultimately Stopping him a Round later. This time Leigh Wood will feel he is ahead on the cards if he gets to the Championship Rounds and staying out of the Mauricio Lara way might be the best plan at that point, but I think he will want to really put on a show and I do think Leigh Wood is someone who likes to finish his opponents where he can.

All of the weigh in drama has just cooled some of the excitement for the upset as I have said, but I do think Leigh Wood might be able to take Mauricio Lara into deep waters and then drown him for a stunning win to regain his World Title.

I do think there have to be some serious questions about whether this bout should go ahead after all of the weight issues, but Leigh Wood could make them secondary... However, I do think this fight has the potential to have a terrible look for Boxing if Mauricio Lara bulldozes through Wood and hurts him badly.


There are a couple of interesting bouts on the undercard, but nothing of note when it comes to additional selections.

I think Jack Catterall will likely need the cards to beat Darragh Foley after a long lay-off, while Terri Harper is expected to win a hastily arranged fight having had her World Title defence pulled from the card on the day of the event last week.

Younger talent under the Matchroom promotional banner are also going to be featured including Campbell Hatton, but the attention will mainly be on the headline fight which should be fascinating.



Lawrence Okolie vs Chris Billam-Smith

There is a lot of respect between World Champion Lawrence Okolie and Chris Billam-Smith, which is not always the case when former gym partners end up facing off in the ring.

A Cruiserweight World Title is on the line and you have to give Lawrence Okolie credit for returning to the ring as soon as he has following a win over David Light in March. Promotional issues meant The Sauce had been left on the sidelines for too long, but he is clearly looking to make up for lost time and it did not take much for Lawrence Okolie to put his hand up when new promoter Ben Shalom had booked Chris Billam-Smith for a World Title shot at home.

Being more active and finishing his goals at Cruiserweight before moving up to Heavyweight is the plan for Lawrence Okolie and I think that has motivated him to get back into the ring for the second time in three months, which is unheard of from Champions in this era.

However, I also think he knows exactly what to expect from Chris Billam-Smith and I do think Lawrence Okolie is clearly very comfortable with the match up.

Shane McGuigan and Billam-Smith are going to have a good idea what to expect, but my problem with the Challenger is that he seems to be far too open when trying to land his own shots.

Of course you have to credit for Chris Billam-Smith to want to force the issue, but he was badly hurt in his last fight against Armend Xhoxhaj and Lawrence Okolie is certainly someone who has arguably the best power in the Division.

Sometimes Lawrence Okolie fights can be poor to watch with his jab and grab style, but before the win over David Light, the Champion had needed a Twelve Round Decision over Michael Cieslak and had previously won seven in a row inside the distance.

Working with SugarHill should mean Lawrence Okolie wants to be more aggressive with his punches and I think he was looking better against Light once getting rid of some of the ring rust.

I expect another improvement from the Champion and I do think he will know what to expect from Chris Billam-Smith.

While some think it could lead to a bit of an ugly contest, Billam-Smith is going to take chances as he is likely knows that is the best way for him to cause the upset rather than allowing Lawrence Okolie to jab and grab to another Decision.

Chris Billam-Smith has shown he is ready to take one to give one, and he showed enough resiliency to go the distance with Richard Riakporhe earlier in their careers. However, I think Lawrence Okolie is a bigger hitter than Riakporhe when the opponent comes onto him like Chris Billam-Smith is likely to do and my feeling is that this is going to be a firefight between two who know each other very well and ultimately it is the Champion who might hit too hard for the home fighter.

The feeling is that Lawrence Okolie wants to impress and I think he can remove Chris Billam-Smith before halfway in this one.


With the event being hosted in a Football Stadium, it is no surprise that we look to have a stronger looking undercard in Bournemouth than the card in Manchester.

Lewis Edmondson is favoured to score a Stoppage in his Six Rounder with Petar Nosic, but Ben Whittaker had to go the distance with the latter. That remains the sole loss Nosic has suffered and I think Edmondson may need the cards to maintain his unbeaten record.

The likes of Tommy Welch and Mace Ruegg should both also remain unbeaten, while the English Light Middleweight Title fight between Lee Cutler and Stanley Stannard is an interesting one to see where both stand before potentially moving onto British Title level.

However, the chief support to the main event looks a cracker when Sam Eggington and Joe Pigford meet one another.

At 29 years old Sam Eggington has a lot of miles on the clock and you have to believe this is the last real run he can have in his career- a win will open up some doors, but he has to take the unbeaten record from Joe Pigford who has shown plenty of punching power, although this is a step up in level compared with previous opponents.

He is a year older than his opponent, but Joe Pigford has not had nearly the same amount of gruelling bouts as Sam Eggington. Twenty wins have been placed on the record and nineteen of those have been in Stoppages, but Eggington is going to be the toughest challenge faced by Joe Pigford and clearly has big ambitions of his own.

The unbeaten has only been past Six Rounds once and you do have to wonder how Joe Pigford will react if Sam Eggington is still in there firing back shots after halfway of this fight.

It is almost certainly the case that Sam Eggington will have taken some big shots already by that point with his approach, but I think Pigford is also going to be tested and this looks a fight that will eventually see one of the two broken down and Stopped.

You do have to respect the fact that Sam Eggington has only ever been Stopped twice in the eight losses he has suffered, but he won't be hard to find in any fight he is in and Joe Pigford is confident his power will tell. At the same time, Eggington may feel taking Pigford into the later Rounds will give him a big edge and I think it will be a big surprise if this fight hits the final bell.

The amount of time Joe Pigford has spent out of the ring is a concern, so he could take a couple of Rounds to warm up and backing one of the fighters to secure a second half Stoppage looks to be the play.



Luis Alberto Lopez vs Michael Conlan

The Featherweight Division has really been heating up over the last couple of years and over the next eighteen months I would expect to see some Unifications and potentially a move towards finding an Undisputed Champion at 126 pounds.

Luis Alberto Lopez is on the road again this weekend and he is back in Great Britain having won the IBF Featherweight World Title from Josh Warrington.

This time he faces Michael Conlan in another hostile environment and it is going to be interesting to see what the Northern Irishman has learned from his late loss to Leigh Wood when leading on the cards.

Winning on Saturday will put Conlan in a position to earn the rematch with Wood with two belts on the line if the latter is able to win in Manchester around an hour after this World Title fight in Belfast is concluded. Michael Conlan has won a couple of fights since the defeat to Leigh Wood in a Fight of the Year contender, but this is another big test for him to show that he has really exorcised any demons that remained after a tough defeat.

The Champion won his World Title in a Majority Decision against Josh Warrington, although I think the win was by a clearer margin than the judges thought on the day. A lot of the blame has to be given to Warrington who started very slowly, but I think Michael Conlan can find enough successes early to put some Rounds in the bank.

He will have to be aware of the awkwardness of Luis Alberto Lopez, but I do think Michael Conlan is a quality Boxer and can do enough to rack up the points. He has more pop than some believe, which is something that Lopez will have to be aware of, and I think Conlan can use the energy of the home crowd to come through a coupe of rough moments and win a first World Title.

I think that will most likely come on the cards, if it does indeed come, but just backing Michael Conlan to find the win might be the best approach.


There is a decent undercard with some local talent involved, but the chief support on this card is another Featherweight clash on a Saturday filled with fights from this Division. While two British fighters are looking to become World Champions in the Division, Nick Ball will be looking to keep up the momentum which has him surging up the World Rankings.

Nick Ball already believes he is ready to take on the World Champions and he will have a chance to make a statement before the IBF World Title is on the line when taking on unbeaten South African Ludumo Lamati.

This is a big opportunity for Lamati, but he will be fighting outside his home nation for only the second time.

He is the taller man, like many who take on Nick Ball in this Division, but Ludumo Lamati will have to be wary of the power that the British fighter has shown.

You can't discount the motivation the South African will have knowing he will be in line for a World Title shot if he can upset Nick Ball, but I think the latter is arriving in Belfast to make a statement and could show off the punching power early in this fight.

MY PICKS: Leigh Wood to Win Between 7-12 @ 17.00 William Hill (1 Unit)
Lawrence Okolie to Win Between 1-6 @ 5.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Lewis Edmondson to Win By Decision/Technical Decision @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Sam Eggington-Joe Pigford to End Between 7-12 @ 2.87 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Michael Conlan to Win @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Nick Ball to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.87 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 26-45, - 12.22 Units (133 Units Staked, - 9.02% Yield)

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