NBA PlayOffs Conference Semi Finals Picks- Games 5-7
It has already been a memorable run of games in the NBA PlayOffs Conference Semi Final Series and we have a couple of definite Game 6's to be played later this week.
Surprisingly the Series between the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors and the Eastern Conference Series between the New York Knicks and Miami Heat have seen the lower Seed move into a 3-1 lead through four games. I would still not dismiss the chances of the Warriors to fight back and force a Game 7, but the Knicks need to get something going after blowing big opportunities to steal Game 4 on the road on Monday evening.
The other two Series are both tied at 2-2 after four games and those will take centre stage on Tuesday with a pivotal Game 5 to be played in Boston and Denver. The winner of those Series are likely going to be the strong favourite to reach the NBA Finals that begin in early June.
A strong start for the NBA Picks in this Round have slowed down in the last few days so I am looking for a bounce back from those as much as some of the teams dropping Game 4 will be. The numbers are still in a positive position, but reversing the negative trend is important.
Tuesday 9th May
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: A huge effort from James Harden saw the Philadelphia 76ers earn a win over the Boston Celtics in Game 1 without Joel Embiid in the starting line up. He had not been shooting the same way in Game 2 and 3 with Embiid back alongside him, but James Harden poured in 42 points in Game 4, including the game winning three pointer in Overtime, and the 76ers will be feeling like they are very much in this Series.
A slight delay from Marcus Smart meant his buzzer beating three pointer left his hand just after the game had finished and the defeat in Game 4 will have bothered the Boston Celtics who looked to have the momentum behind them after coming back from losing the opening game of the Series to then lead 2-1.
Heading back home at 2-2 will be of some disappointment to the Celtics, but they remain the favourites to return to the Eastern Conference Finals. However, Boston know they will need to be a little better all around if they are going to win Game 5 and move back in front of the Philadelphia 76ers having played very loose Defensive Basketball until the Fourth Quarter of Game 4 on the road.
They did hold the 76ers to just 24 points in the final 17 minutes of Game 4, but Boston had gotten themselves into a significant hole through the first three Quarters and ultimately that proved to be costly to them on the day.
Joel Embiid had a big game last time out to complement James Harden, but it does feel this Series is going to come down to how hot Harden can stay on the court. James Harden had 45 points in Game 1 and 42 points in the last game, but the middle two outings saw him produce a combined 28 points and both of those ended up in double digit defeats for the 76ers.
Adjustments will be made by Boston and some of those were seen through the final Quarter and Overtime in Game 4, while the Celtics are still looking for a really big day from the three point arc. They have been consistent shooting from that range and will continue to shoot a lot of three pointers, but the Celtics have to believe they can dominate the remainder of this Series if they can just find a bit more efficiency shooting the ball.
Al Horford has been up and down, but Jayson Tatum is likely to be a lot better than Game 4 and I still believe the Boston Celtics are the team to beat in the East.
Big home favourites have not had a very good time covering in the Conference Semi Finals in recent seasons, while Game 5 home favourites are on a poor run of 15-20 against the spread over the last ten years. Those drop to 9-15 against the spread when favoured by more than 5.5 points as the Celtics are on Tuesday, but I do think Boston will bounce back from the defeat in Game 4.
It was a tight game that would have taken something away from the 76ers even with a win on the board and I do think Boston have shown they can find a way to close down James Harden. All credit has to be given to Harden for stepping up in Game 4, but Boston at home should have more successes and I think they can be backed to cover this big mark.
Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets Game 5 Pick: Chris Paul's injury looked like it could be very damaging for the Phoenix Suns, especially with the team 2-0 down in the Series. However, it seems to have sparked a lively Suns Offensive game plan with a fast tempo seemingly working to their favour as they held serve at home and return to Denver with the Series back at 2-2.
Both Kevin Durant and Devin Booker have really thrived at home, but playing that kind of speed of Basketball could be much tougher in the altitude of Mile High as the Series moves back to Denver. That is certainly something the Nuggets fans will be clinging onto having wasted a huge effort from Nikola Jokic in Game 4 as the Denver Defensive unit struggled to contain the top two options for the Suns and were then hurt by Landry Shamet's performance from the bench.
With Booker showing some very high efficiency in his shooting, it has helped the Suns just open up their three point looks and they have been much better in the two games at home than they were in the two games played here.
In Game 1 and 2 the Suns combined for 13/54 from the three point range (24%), but they have pushed that to 22/57 (38%) in the two games at home. The Nuggets know they need to make some Defensive adjustments having felt they have underperformed in Game 3 and 4 after strong showings to open the Series, but Denver have been much stronger at home this season and I do think that plays a part in the outcome of this Conference Semi Final.
As we have seen time and time again in the NBA PlayOffs, role players tend to be better at home and I do expect to see a bounce back from players not called Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray when this Series shifts back to Denver. The Nuggets have maintained a solid, if unspectacular, success rate from the three point range and they have been pretty efficient shooting the ball too, but the key will be to show improved Defensive intensity to try and cool down the top two names on the Suns roster.
I do think they can do that at home after a couple of below par efforts and I am expecting a response from the Nuggets in what has been a really good Series so far.
You can never discount Devin Booker and the experience of Kevin Durant has shown this is a player who will step up in the big moments, but I still think the overall depth of the Denver Nuggets can play a part in determining the outcome of the Series. I expect the Defensive intensity to be ramped up at home and I do think those role players in the starting line up and coming off the bench will step up as the Nuggets look to return to Phoenix later this week with just one more win needed to clinch a spot in the Western Conference Finals.
I have mentioned that big home favourites have struggled in Game 5 of the Conference Semi Final Series in recent years, but Denver have beaten the Suns pretty well in both home games in this Series. As long as they can weather an early storm from the team with momentum behind them, the Nuggets can move through the gears in the second half and secure the win and cover to edge ahead in the Series.
Wednesday 10th May
Miami Heat @ New York Knicks Game 5 Pick: There has been a lot of noise around the New York Knicks since the end of Game 4 as they fell into a 3-1 hole against the Miami Heat. The blowout loss in Game 3 would have hurt, but the Knicks were a lot more competitive in the main in Game 4 and there is a feeling that they missed a big opportunity to win the game and level the Conference Semi Final Series.
It is not going to be easy for the players to dig in and try and force a Game 6, but they are back in The Garden and the home fans will try and get behind the New York Knicks.
They made some solid adjustments in Game 4 and shot the ball much better than they had in the previous game, but the Knicks were undone by turnovers and then an embarrassingly poor performance on the glass in the Fourth Quarter. A number of Offensive rebounds helped the poor shooting Miami Heat to just keep clear of the Knicks and that proved to be the difference with some key rebounding making the difference when the game seemed to be in the balance.
Julius Randle has been taking the brunt of the criticism from the New York Knicks fans- another poor PlayOff showing has just underlined the feeling that Randle is not someone that can really be trusted in key moments and there are one or two reports that the player and Tom Thibodeau had a disagreement after Game 4.
Suggesting that the Knicks 'don't want it' as much as the Miami Heat will not have made things easier for Julius Randle and he has to start this game with more intensity and personal responsibility.
The Knicks will need him to find his shooting too if they are going to get back into this Series.
Poor officiating frustrated the Knicks in Game 4, but they did play some solid Defense if you ignore the amount of Offensive boards allowed in the Fourth Quarter. This has been a feature of this Series with the Miami Heat getting to the Free Throw line to just get the Offensive unit ticking over, while they have made some big shots from the three point arc at key times throughout the four games played.
Some will feel the Heat have broken the back of the Series by holding firm in the two games played at home, but I think the Knicks may have at least one big effort left in them.
Teams playing in Game 5 after losing the previous game by at least 7 points have been on a very good run at covering the spread and I do think the Knicks will better in the columns of rebounding and turnovers. The shooting has been inconsistent over the last couple of weeks, but I think the Knicks can find the energy from the stands to at least head back to South Florida with one more chance to win a game on the road.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors Game 5 Pick: There will be some real disappointment with the way the final moments of Game 4 went for the defending Champions Golden State Warriors and they are in a 1-3 hole in the Conference Semi Final Series. The team had more than one or two chances to win the game on the road at the Los Angeles Lakers, but some poor shooting and an inability to stop Lonnie Walker IV from having a career day in the Fourth Quarter proved to be the undoing of the Golden State Warriors.
Walker IV became the first Laker to score at least 15 points in the Fourth Quarter of the PlayOffs since Kobe Bryant and it was his step up that helped the Lakers overturn a 7 point deficit at the start of the Quarter and finish up with a win by three points.
Helping out LeBron James and Anthony Davis by becoming the third scorer meant Lonnie Walker IV made the headlines on Monday and the Lakers will arrive in San Francisco looking to close the Series out.
The Warriors are not likely to go away easily and Steve Kerr has made it clear that his team just have to take it game by game from here on out. The Head Coach admitted that his team missed an opportunity in Game 4, but he will need his players to find more consistency from the three point range and a more efficient performance from Steph Curry will be very important to the outcome of Game 5 too.
He was guilty of some loose play down the stretch that proved to be decisive in the outcome of Game 4, while some of the role players are not performing to the level that helped the Warriors walk away with the NBA Championship eleven months ago.
Jordan Poole is the one facing the music, but the Warriors have been better at home and those role players can step up as they look to force a Game 6 back in Los Angeles.
However, the Warriors will have to overcome some Game 5 trends that suggest the Lakers have the momentum to take in this one and can cover with the points being given to them.
Big home favourites continue to struggle in Game 5 of the Conference Semi Finals, while you may think the narrow win for the LA Lakers in the last game will have taken something out of the tank. However, teams who have been involved in a game that finished in a 3 point margin or less are 16-8 against the spread when playing on the road in their next game and the efficiency of shooting from within the three point arc may help the Lakers keep this one close.
Thursday 11th May
Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 6 Pick: It was a really poor moment to pick your time to produce one of the worst games of the season, but the Boston Celtics made far too many errors in Game 5. Those proved to be costly and the Celtics will travel to Philadelphia to take on the home team 76ers at 3-2 down in the Conference Semi Final Series.
It makes the one point loss in Overtime in Game 4 sting all the more, but the Boston Celtics will not be panicking just yet. Over the last couple of years they have become a team that have become accustomed to playing the pressurised PlayOff Basketball of being a game away from elimination, but this is going to take a big effort to bring the game back to Boston for a Game 7 this weekend.
Momentum is very much with the Philadelphia 76ers who have won two games in a row and seemed to be able to do whatever they wanted in Game 5. However, Joel Embiid will know that him and his team need to be stronger if they are going close out this elimination game and they cannot expect Boston to be as lacklustre as they were in the last outing.
Missed shots is one thing, but missing wide open looks was very surprising, while Jayson Tatum and Al Horford will need to use all of their experiences to win this game. Both put in sub-par efforts in the last game, but this is an opportunity to turn the current narrative and get the Celtics back on track as the favourites to reach the NBA Final as the Eastern Conference representative.
The Celtics were below par when it came to their three point shooting, but that was not down to a suddenly improved Philadelphia Defensive performance and much more to do with Boston missing some big, open looks.
A dominant performance on the boards gave Philadelphia a stronger edge in Game 5, while the 76ers have to be excited by what they have seen from the likes of Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey. It was James Harden leading the way in Game 4, but Harris and Maxey took over the lead in supporting Joel Embiid and the strong three point showing from the 76ers meant they led from whistle to whistle.
I can't ignore the momentum that is now with the 76ers, but the Boston Celtics cannot be nearly as bad as they were in the last game. I expect some of their big names to step up and find a way to force this Series back to Boston for a Game 7 as they look to extend the trend of those teams looking to close out the Semi Final Series in a Game 6 having a tough time doing so.
With elimination staring them in the face, I expect a much better performance from an intensity point of view from the Boston Celtics. It should mean much more energy around the boards and I don't think their shooters will be as poor from the field as they were in Game 5 so I will look for the Celtics to win and cover for a second time in three games in Philadelphia.
Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns Game 6 Pick: All five games in this Western Conference Semi Final Series have been won by the home team and all have ended with said home team covering as a favourite.
It has left the Denver Nuggets one win away from securing a spot in the Western Conference Finals having won Game 5 at home, but there is still some serious work to get through if they are going to edge past the Phoenix Suns.
Once again the depth of the Nuggets proved to be key in Game 5 and they had four players who put up at least 19 points to win another home game. Compare that with the Phoenix Suns who had Devin Booker and Kevin Durant once again scoring big points, but had no other player score more than 14 points and that was Deandre Ayton who was also the only other player to produce double digit points for the team in losing the last game.
Role players have tended to be better on their home court in this Series, but there does seem to be a lot more pressure on the Booker and Durant pairing to make sure they are powering the Suns forward. They may receive a bit more support in this one, but the Suns have to find a way to keep the Denver bench quiet, as they have managed to do in the first two wins at home in the Series.
The Nuggets will also be looking to make some adjustments to get their three pointers going in this road environment knowing that would be a huge boost for the entire team. They hit 48% in Game 5 after three disappointing games from that range and the hope for the Number 1 Seed is having that momentum slide over in this big Game 6.
Going against the home favourite after the way this Series has developed feels wrong, but I do think the Denver Nuggets have the depth to close things out here. Closing out Series in Game 6 has been challenging for teams in the Conference Semi Finals in recent seasons, but the underdog is 15-6 against the spread in this important game since 2014 in this Round of the NBA PlayOffs.
Those teams have surprisingly won fourteen of the twenty-one games outright and I do think the Denver Nuggets can find enough avenues towards the buckets to cover.
Three point shooting will be key for the Nuggets, but they can use the output of Tuesday to produce enough on Thursday to cover in this one.
Chris Paul is still a doubt and that lack of support for Devin Booker and Kevin Durant may show up on their home court for the first time.
Friday 12th May
New York Knicks @ Miami Heat Game 6 Pick: Foul trouble early and a big deficit at the end of the First Quarter had some New York Knicks fans fearing the worse, but a strong opening to the Second Quarter turned Game 5 around. There were not many big adjustments made by the New York Knicks, but they were a little more ruthless when it came to the three point shooting and a strong performance on the boards proved to be very important for the Knicks as they take this Series back to Miami for one more shot at winning on the road.
The Miami Heat will have been disappointed with their own shooting having produced a 13/43 effort from the three point range and they ended up on the losing side despite having seventeen more attempts from the field.
A key difference was the officiating did not offer the Miami Heat the big advantage at getting to the Free Throw line and this time it was the Knicks who had 40 Free Throws compared with just 19 for the Heat.
It is unlikely that the Miami Heat will be panicking after losing Game 5, especially as they will feel like they were missing too many open looks from the three point range, while being at home is likely going to mean 'better' officiating which goes in favour of the Heat.
They have already beaten the Knicks twice here already in this Series and that will also give Miami plenty of confidence. One was a blowout, but Game 4 was much more competitive and it was the Heat's performance on the boards which ended up being the key to the outcome of that game that was decided by just 8 points.
The Miami Heat have not been very consistent from the three point range throughout this Series, but they have been much more level with their shooting compared with the New York Knicks.
Game 3 saw the Heat go 22% from the three point range, but they have been between 30-35% in the other four games. That is much different to the New York Knicks who have had a 38% showing and 40% showing from the three point arc in their two wins, but who have not shot the ball well at all from that distance in the other three games in the Series.
Jalen Brunson and Quentin Grimes both had to play the entirety of Game 5 and you have to have some concern about their fitness levels with just one day of rest between games.
The Heat's depth feels like it is going to be key, but closing out Conference Semi Final Series in Game 6 has been challenging for teams who are favoured like the Miami Heat. Those teams are just 1-5 against the spread in the last six attempts to do so as favourites, while the underdog in general have been on a good run in the sixth game of the Semi Finals.
I think it is entirely acceptable to feel unsure about the Knicks considering how reliant they have been on their three point shooting in this Series and the lack of consistency that has been shown. However, I do think the Miami Heat are not a team who are going to blow past any opponent and that makes the points appealing as I look to improve by 2-3 record in this Series.
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 6 Pick: It has been seven years since a NBA PlayOff Series has seen a team recover from 3-1 down (outside of the NBA Bubble when the Denver Nuggets did it twice and actually won both Series against the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers in the neutral environment).
There are two teams hoping to force a Game 7 by winning on the road on Friday and I do think that places some real pressure on the home teams, in this case the Los Angeles Lakers.
There have been thirty-four NBA PlayOff Series that have seen a team blow a 3-1 lead, but only thirteen have been won by the team trailing. However, it should be noted that the last five occasions in which a Game 7 has been forced has been won by the team with momentum and so it is no surprise to hear legends of the NBA court like Charles Barkley state that he feels these Game 6's to be played on Friday night have to be treated like a Game 7 by the home team.
Los Angeles will feel the injury suffered by Anthony Davis turned Game 5 against them, but they are grateful that Davis looks to have avoided concussion and is reportedly trending towards starting this vital game. We are still being impressed by LeBron James, even if he is not the player he once was, but the Lakers are well aware of the importance of Anthony Davis in putting them in a position to return to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since the NBA Bubble in 2020 which ended with their Championship win.
The Lakers have been efficient getting inside the arc and using the skills of Davis inside the paint, while they are not a team that will go for a heavy dose of three point shooting.
It has been an effective game plan through this Conference Semi Final Series and is the opposite approach to the Golden State Warriors who will continue to launch the ball from deep. Klay Thompson has struggled in the last three games in the Series and that has contributed to the inconsistent performances that the Warriors have produced from shooting the three ball.
In the two games played in this Arena, the Golden State Warriors have finished up with a 29% and 30% mark from the three point range and that has proven to be costly considering they have launched eighty-five shots from deep.
Steve Kerr might have gotten into the ear of the officials with some of the calls that went the way of the Warriors in Game 5, but the experienced Head Coach will know his team need to be better from the three point range if they are going to force a Game 7 back at home. The Warriors did have a 37% mark in Game 5 as they pushed the Series back to 2-3, and that also meant the team were able to get inside the three point arc and have a strong showing.
The line for this game looks about right and I am not really feeling comfortable picking a side.
I haven't had a very good Series with a 1-4 record after the Lakers failed to cover in Game 5, but I can make a case for both teams. The underdog have thrived in Game 6 of the Conference Semi Final Series in the last few years, while closing out this Round has proven very difficult for teams set as the favourite.
However, the Lakers have to feel confident with wins in both previous home games against the Warriors, even if they had to come from behind to do so in Game 4.
Instead I think there is a case to be made for this Game 6 to finish 'under' the total line set- the 'over' is leading 3-2 in the Series, but this is a point in the Conference Semi Final Series when the 'under' has been on a really strong run with teams picking up their intensity to avoid elimination/to move through to the Conference Finals.
The 'under' is on a 6-1 run in Game 6 of the Conference Semi Final Series since 2021 (written before the two Game 6's to be played on Thursday).
Throw in the fact that both games played in this Series have finished 'under' the total and I do think this Game 6 can go the same way.
Sunday 14th May
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics Game 7 Pick: A back and forth Conference Semi Final Series has been forced into a deciding Game 7 and I think that is fitting for this one between the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers.
The winner will enter the Eastern Conference Finals as the favourite to win and earn a spot in the NBA Finals beginning in June and that is some significant pressure to deal with on Sunday. Some of the big names struggled under that spotlight in Game 6, but Jayson Tatum was just able to settle down in time to produce some huge three point shots in the last four minutes of the Fourth Quarter to lead the Boston Celtics to the win.
Headlines were being written about Tatum's poor outing in Game 6 having been at 1/14 from the field and missing all six three pointers tried going into the Fourth Quarter. He had three more points than turnovers before finding his rhythm and there will be a lot of confidence in the Boston locker room as they head back home with two days of rest between games.
That time is going to be really important for the Philadelphia 76ers who will know they missed a big opportunity to earn the upset Series win after fighting back in Game 6 and going up and down the court. Poor shooting at the critical time in the Fourth Quarter as Jayson Tatum inspired the Boston run ended up seeing the 76ers come up short, but some of the body language in the last two minutes would have been massively disheartening for a fan watching on.
While it was unlikely they were going to win the game at that point, the slumping of Joel Embiid and James Harden and the little effort to get back down the court following a Boston Defensive rebound was worrying. With Joel Embiid playing with some pain, that has to be a concern and the 76ers should be wrapping him up and making sure he is absolutely ready to go on Sunday.
Unsurprisingly Boston are the big favourites at home and I do think they have been the superior team throughout much of the Series, Game 5 aside. The Celtics could have easily won all three road games played in this Series, but they would be foolish to ignore that two of the three Philadelphia wins have been in this Arena.
The 76ers will have to re-energise from an Offensive standpoint having been held to 86 points in Game 6 and especially as that follows an 87 point effort in Game 2. James Harden and Tyrese Maxey have had their moments in this Series, but it really does feel like a Game 7 that is going to come down to the Boston Celtics and how efficiently they can shoot their own three ball.
Jayson Tatum will not want to start as slowly as he did on Thursday, but it does feel like the Boston Celtics can hit between 35-39% from the three point range and that could be decisive for them.
My honest feeling is that the Celtics have not been Coached as well as they could be, but the adjustments made in Game 6 have given them the edge and this is a team that is either going to win by ten points or lose outright.
The lean is with a positive outcome for the Boston Celtics who won a Game 7 in both the Conference Semi Finals and Conference Finals last season. The Game 7 win at home against the Milwaukee Bucks came in a blowout and I do think the Philadelphia 76ers looked like a team that really does feel that their best chance of winning this Series has come and gone.
The team that has won Game 6 in the Conference Semi Finals in recent seasons to force a Game 7 are 7-2 against the spread in the decider. Big home favourites have not really played very well in this Round in recent times, and Boston are 1-2 against the spread at home in this Series, but I think the late Fourth Quarter charge has just given them the impetus to move through to another Eastern Conference Finals and prolong Philadelphia's long wait to do so.
MY PICKS: 09/05 Boston Celtics - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
09/05 Denver Nuggets - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
10/05 New York Knicks - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
10/05 Los Angeles Lakers + 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
11/05 Boston Celtics - 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
11/05 Denver Nuggets + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
12/05 New York Knicks + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
12/05 Los Angeles Lakers-Golden State Warriors Under 221 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
14/05 Boston Celtics - 7 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Semi Final Update: 14-8-1, + 4.90 Units (23 Units Staked, + 21.30% Yield)
First Round Final: 22-9, + 11.04 Units (31 Units Staked, + 35.61% Yield)
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