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Saturday, 20 May 2023

Boxing Picks 2023- Devin Haney vs Vasyl Lomachenko (May 20th)

While the Heavyweight Division remains stagnant, the lower weight classes are continuing to offer up some big fights to keep us Boxing fans happy with the sport.

We should have really seen the Undisputed Heavyweight World Title decided last month, but instead it is another week where we seem to be back into social media posts about one another rather than actually signing a contract to settle things inside the ring.

The breakdown of Oleksandr Usyk's talks with Daniel Dubois for his mandatory defence of the WBA World Title has followed on the heels of Tyson Fury's rumoured bouts with Zhilei Zhang and Andy Ruiz both seemingly becoming impossible to make too. It is all a big disappointment and the Saudi Arabia tournament that has been rumoured is to take place in the final quarter of the year and ultimately I think we are all bored off the lack of movement at the top of the Heavyweight Division.


Over the next two weeks we are going to see World Titles defended at Cruiserweight and in the Featherweight Divisions, while there is a pretty big Undisputed fight taking place in the women's side of the sport.

However, all are under the cloud of the super-fight between Devin Haney and Vasyl Lomachenko for all of the World Titles in the 135 Division and that takes place this weekend in Las Vegas.

All we want as fans is to see the best fighting the best and this weekend it is certainly going to be a headline fight that should be drawing attention from all in the sport.


Last weekend proved to be one with a slight profit produced for the Boxing Picks and that has dragged the total very close to moving back into the black for the season.

I was fortunate with the extremely controversial Stoppage awarded to Rolly Romero and I do think he is either going to have to pay the WBA organisation a lot of money to be protected, or he is going to be found out very quickly.

He has been ordered to face Ohara Davies next and I think that is a fight that the British fighter will feel he can win and then perhaps look for the rematch with Josh Taylor down the line.

Janibek Alimkhanuly battered an overmatched Steven Butler far earlier than I thought he might and has called out some of the big names in the Middleweight Division, but I am still not convinced that he is as good as he thinks. Butler was made to order, but Denzel Bentley showed what can be achieved against this 'boogeyman', although I don't believe the other Champions will be rushing to face him either.



Devin Haney vs Vasyl Lomachenko

I am still not sure Devin Haney gets the credit that he should do, but that is largely down to what is a relatively poor resume, depending on how high you rate the fighters he has beaten to become Undisputed at Lightweight.

Back to back wins over George Kambosos Jr are decent enough, but, again, this also depends on how highly you rate the Australian.

His win over Teofimo Lopez made Kambosos Jr, but he had won a couple of Split Decisions against Mickey Bey and Lee Selby prior to that and I think the win had a lot more to do with Lopez being out of sorts than George Kambosos Jr suddenly becoming one of the top fighters in the Division.

I will never take anything away from someone who did what George Kambosos Jr did, but ultimately that is the best win on Devin Haney's resume and it is hard to shake off the way he was rocked to his boots against Jorge Linares.

The latter had dropped Vasyl Lomachenko previously, but that was in a fight three years before he faced Devin Haney and Jorge Linares was Stopped by The Matrix.

Much like it did for Teofimo Lopez, this is a fight that could really cement Devin Haney as one of the best young fighters in the sport. You would think being an Undisputed Champion would have done that, but a win over Lomachenko would really raise his stock and Devin Haney could be set for some monster fights in the 135 and 140 pound Divisions in the months ahead.

I have so much respect for Vasyl Lomachenko, but he is challenging himself at the 135 pound limit and the veteran is only fighting for the fourth time since losing to Teofimo Lopez in 2020. He blamed a shoulder injury that day, but Lomachenko did not look completely himself in his last fight against Jemaine Ortiz and that means he will be entering this fight as the underdog for the first time in his professional career.

The cards were wider than they should have been in the win over Ortiz, but I do wonder if Vasyl Lomachenko was trying not to give too much away and scare off any of the big names in the Division. The fact he was facing a sparring partner might have meant Lomachenko was prepared to do just enough to win and I do think we will see a much better version of the Ukrainian in the ring on Saturday.

I can understand why the prices are what they are for this fight with Vasyl Lomachenko being the smaller fighter and Devin Haney's tactics of jabbing and grabbing could be difficult to deal with. While not the flashiest fighter out there, Devin Haney is comfortable with the basics of boxing and may feel that is enough to just contain the Vasyl Lomachenko threat and win this one on the cards, even if the promotional side of the fight means Haney will talk up his ambition of going through the gears to force a Stoppage.

My feeling is that Haney will not want to take too many risks with someone who can find some very strange angles from which to land and it is the shot that you don't see which can cause immense damage.

Vasyl Lomachenko has been guilty of some slow starts in recent bouts, which could be a sign of age catching up with him, but he can ill-afford one in this World Title bid. It was the slow start that cost him against Teofimo Lopez, but I expect the smart team behind Lomachenko to have accepted that and that could be key to the outcome of this one.

As good as Devin Haney is with the fundamentals, I do think that will aid Vasyl Lomachenko who will likely not need five or six Rounds to 'download data' to see what is in front of him.

Ultimately it could come down to how much leeway the referee gives Devin Haney when he goes into holding mode- if Vasyl Lomachenko is able to just work a bit inside, he could have some successes and may be ready to turn back the clock and earn the upset.

I am guessing the smart money is on Devin Haney to win a Decision, but a small interest in Vasyl Lomachenko just showing Haney the levels that he has yet to reach has to be the play.


A strong undercard will be supporting the main event in Las Vegas and that includes the return of Oscar Valdez who has been absent from the ring for thirteen months since losing for the first time as a professional against Shakur Stevenson.

The American has since left the 130 pound Division and Oscar Valdez was supposed to have challenged Emanuel Navarrete for the WBO World Title earlier this year before being forced out with an injury.

A good decision was made to get back into the ring for a 'tune up' ahead of that World Title bid, although don't let Adam Lopez hear this fight described as that. He has followed Oscar Valdez up into the Super Featherweight Division, but Lopez has lost two of his last four fights, while he was also Stopped in the Seventh Round when facing Valdez in November 2019.

It was a premature Stoppage on the day, but Adam Lopez was hurt and I do think Oscar Valdez can break him down for a second half Stoppage again as he shakes off the ring rust.

A big punching crossroads fight between Raymond Muratalla and Jeremiah Nakathila could be the one that fans are talking about in the morning.

Both are chasing big fights in the Lightweight Division and the winner will be looking to make a statement.

The younger fighter is the favourite, but Muratalla has not been in the ring with someone like Jeremiah Nakathila before and I think this is going to be a really good watch.

With thirty-three Stoppages from forty-two fights between them, I think someone is going to be broken down in the second half of this one.

There is also a vacant Super Flyweight World Title on the line as Andrew Moloney looks to join brother Jason as a WBO World Champion, albeit in the Division below. However, Junto Nakatani is a heavy handed unbeaten fighter that has been climbing the Rankings and I think he will outwork Moloney on the cards.



Katie Taylor vs Chantelle Cameron

Instead of Amanda Serrano and a Stadium, Katie Taylor is fighting at home for the first time in an Arena and she is going up in weight to become an Undisputed World Champion in a second Division.

Take nothing away from her career, but I do think Taylor has benefited from being in two minute Rounds and having Ten Round Championship bouts.

Early on in her career I do think Katie Taylor would have been ok operating with the extra minutes in the ring, but over the last couple of years she has been in tight, competitive fights and I do think the minutes she would have been doing as a male fighter would have likely meant the unbeaten run was long behind her.

Other female fighters have spoken about the desire to move to three minute Rounds and even Twelve Round contests, but this is something that Katie Taylor has been pretty opposed to doing. I definitely think she would have been beaten in that hard Fifth Round against Amanda Serrano with the extra minute to deal with, but Taylor should be credited for being an inspiration to so many.

She is the 'A' side despite Chantelle Cameron going into the bout as the Undisputed Champion at Light Welterweight, but Katie Taylor is the draw as she looks to add a host of World Titles to those she holds at Lightweight.

Unsurprisingly there are common opponents between these unbeaten fighters considering the lack of depth in women's boxing and the ease that fighters seem to go up and down the Divisions compared with the men's side of the sport.

Being at home means that Katie Taylor is going to be getting the lion's share of the support and I do think that can sway the judges. At some point Taylor is going to just get 'old' in the ring and Chantelle Cameron is more than good enough to win a fight like this one with the natural weight and size in her favour, but in these two minute Rounds there is enough chance for Katie Taylor to come in and shoot some combinations and use her footwork to largely stay out of the way.

I expect Taylor to start fast and win the majority of the opening Five Rounds, but Chantelle Cameron to find more success in the second half of the fight. If the Light Welterweight Undisputed Champion can steal a Round or two early, Chantelle Cameron can win this one, but opposing Katie Taylor on the cards is not easy considering some of the tight wins she has had in her career.

Good luck to the judges who call a close fight against Taylor in Dublin, but I do think the home fighter will win her Rounds clearly enough to eventually come through with a Decision win.


The undercard features a number of Irish fighters, while the chief support is from Terri Harper as she looks to defend her Light Middleweight World Titles against First Lady Cecilia Braekhus.

Two losses to Jessica McCaskill in Undisputed fights in the Welterweight Division should have ended Braekhus' time at the top and at 41 years old I am not sure she has enough intensity to win a fight that is likely to go to the cards.

I am not a big fan of Harper who has been guided away from danger for the majority of her career and has been beaten by Alycia Baumgardner and should have lost to Natasha Jonas. Her handlers have likely picked this as a relatively straight-forward defence against an opponent who might not be able to match Terri Harper's output.

I would love to pick Cecilia Braekhus to win this one at the price, but I think she has been far too inactive over the last three years and this looks like a nice payday ahead of retirement.

The fight of most intrigue on the card looks to be the one between Dennis Hogan and JJ Metcalf and this feels like a crossroads fight for two who will be hoping World Titles will soon open up in a loaded Division.

Dennis Hogan has been in with the tougher company having lost to Jaime Munguia, Jermall Charlo and Tim Tszyu, while JJ Metcalf has losses to Ted Cheeseman and Kieron Conway on the resume.

An upset win over Kerman Lejarraga has just reinvigorated his career, and I do think this is going to be a fan friendly fight with both Metcalf and Hogan likely going to be standing in the pocket and trading.

I am surprised the 'Champion' is the underdog, but I think Hogan was a little fortunate to beat Sam Eggington with the home nod perhaps the key.

In this one I can see one of these fighters just running out of steam in the second half of the contest as the punching output eventually finds a breakthrough in what should be a really good watch.

Unbeaten home fighter Caoimhin Agyarko can return from a long injury lay off to beat Grant Dennis early, while huge prospect Gary Cully should keep the momentum going against Jose Felix.

His last couple of outings have raised his profile, but Cully may need a few more Rounds to break down Felix who has taken Tyrone McKenna and Sandor Martin to the cards in his last two fights.

Paddy Donovan has been frustrated with his partnership with Top Rank and has decided to part way and join Matchroom. He fights under this banner for the first time, and he can go through the gears having needed just a single Round to win on April 1st, while Sam O'maison has taken the likes of Dalton Smith into the Sixth Round before being Stopped.

Another continuing his progress in the professional ranks is Thomas Carty and the Heavyweight can break down Jay McFarlane in the second half of this Eight Rounder.

MY PICKS: Vasyl Lomachenko to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 4.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oscar Valdez to Win Between 6-10 @ 2.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Raymond Muratalla-Jeremiah Nakathila to Finish Between 6-10 @ 2.62 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Junto Nakatani to Win By Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Katie Taylor to by Decision/Technical Decision @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Dennis Hogan-JJ Metcalf to Finish Between 7-12 @ 4.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Caoimhin Agyarko to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Gary Cully to Win Between 6-10 @ 5.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Paddy Donovan to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Thomas Carty to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.25 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 25-36, - 0.22 Units (115 Units Staked, - 0.001% Yield)

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