The second Grand Slam of the 2023 season might only have completed the First Round, but it has been a tournament filled with upsets as Seeds have fallen in both draws.
By far the biggest name exiting Paris at the first hurdle is World Number 2 and Rome Masters Champion Daniil Medvedev who was beaten in a fifth set for the ninth time in twelve matches that have gone the distance. After a strong run last season at the French Open and with the Rome title in his bag, so many expected big things from Medvedev with the draw opening up thanks to Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic both being placed in the other half of the tournament.
The exit will have stung, but Daniil Medvedev might be more confident now his season is moving onto the grass and with Wimbledon set to begin in just over a month from now.
Two other Seeded players in the top twenty have also exited the men's tournament, but the women's event has lost five of those players with Maria Sakkari, a former French Open Semi Finalist, Petra Kvitova and Belinda Bencic being the most popular of the names that have been beaten.
With the shocks going on throughout the event, it is perhaps not a surprise the early Picks have been a little up and down, although I am still not sure how Sebastian Baez blew a strong winning position against Gael Monfils on Tuesday evening.
It was an entertaining match filled with drama, but Baez looked to have broken Gael Monfils when leading 4-0 and having more Break Points in the Fifth Set after taking the Fourth Set 6-1. A loss of focus, or perhaps getting tight at the winning line, saw Sebastian Baez lose his way from that moment in the match and he was beaten, although I am still not quite sure if Gael Monfils will be ready to compete in two days time having looked like he had spent all he had on court.
On Wednesday the Second Round will begin at Roland Garros and it looks like being another very hot day for the players, although still windy.
This is going to be a testing day for the players heading out onto the courts, but the favourites will be looking to avoid some of the early obstacles they have faced. Leading contenders in both the men's and women's events are out on the show courts on Day 4 of the tournament and you have to imagine the Daniil Medvedev defeat may just have refocused those players to make sure they don't also make an early exit from the second Slam of the season.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 7.5 games v Roberto Carballas Baena: The First Round match was perhaps tougher than would have been expected, but some of that was down to Stefanos Tsitsipas' own performance rather than anything Jiri Vesely brought onto the court. The former Runner Up at the French Open will know that he needs to be a little more ruthless when the Break Point chances come his way if he is going to have another deep run at Roland Garros, while this Second Round match should be more favourable for the return aspect of Stefanos Tsitsipas' game.
As comfortable as Roberto Carballas Baena is going to be on the red dirt and having only just reached his career best World Ranking last month, it is clear that the Spaniard is not really going to blitz through an opponent behind big serving. He works hard for his points and Carballas Baena is holding 76% of his service games played on the clay courts in 2023, although that number has dipped to 73% when considering his matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface over the last twelve months.
Roberto Carballas Baena has lost all three matches played on the clay against top 20 Ranked opponents over the last year and he has struggled to be really competitive in those. The strong ability to perform on the surface has meant he has been able to win points behind both the first and second serve, which is going to be important, but the pressure of doing that over and over again has also meant having to deal with Break Points and eventually he has cracked.
One of the bigger concerns for Carballas Baena has been the struggles on the return when the level of opponent has increased and someone like Stefanos Tsitsipas is very strong on the serve. This is a player who has won almost 69% of his service points played on the clay in 2023 and that is a number that will exert plenty of scoreboard pressure on his opponent having seen those service numbers lead to holds in over 85% of service games played on the clay.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has yet to win a Grand Slam because I truly believe his return is not quite up to the level of some of his main rivals, but he does tend to enjoy his best returns on the slower clay courts. He has broken in 26% of return games played on the surface in 2023 and I still think there is some room for improvement there at the French Open if he wants to go as deep into the tournament as some will expect.
In the sole meeting between these two on the professional Tour, Stefanos Tsitsipas was able to beat Roberto Carballas Baena back in 2018 in a match where he created more Break Points than his opponent.
Both are much improved since then, but I think the match up should still be on that Stefanos Tsitsipas enjoys and that should mean he is able to win and cover this big handicap mark on his way through to the Third Round.
Cameron Norrie - 5.5 games v Lucas Pouille: This is going to be the third time Lucas Pouille and Cameron Norrie are facing one another in a Grand Slam match with the Frenchman winning in Paris and the British player winning at Wimbledon.
They meet again at Roland Garros in the Second Round of the French Open and Lucas Pouille returns to a big stage having fought his way through the Qualifiers. It has been a very difficult time for the Frenchman who has admitted that he was suffering with his mental health and who has dropped as far as Number 675 in the World Rankings.
He looks to be in a better space these days, but Lucas Pouille has been lacking competitive tennis and that has perhaps contributed to his inconsistent form. Former Grand Slam Champions like Dominic Thiem, Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka will be the first to tell you how tall the mountain is to climb after injury sets them back and Lucas Pouille has to be respected as a former top ten Ranked player.
I think Lucas Pouille will take some positives from the fact he has beaten Cameron Norrie here before in 2018, although there is no doubt that Norrie has shown how much he has improved by dismissing Pouille easily enough at Wimbledon in 2021. He is a comfortable clay courter these days and Cameron Norrie won't be affected by the crowd getting into the match having needed all five sets to beat Benoit Paire in the First Round.
Cameron Norrie will be the first to admit that he was perhaps distracted in the middle of the match before rallying for the win, but I think that will just focus him for this match.
Serving better than he did in the First Round will be important for Cameron Norrie to just keep the pressure on Lucas Pouille and the momentum is with the higher Ranked player after really controlling the last two sets in the win over Benoit Paire. In those his serve looked to finally have gotten some rhythm and I do think Cameron Norrie is going to have too much for Lucas Pouille who has yet to play anyone Ranked inside the top 100 on the clay courts in 2023.
In fact Lucas Pouille has not played anyone Ranked inside the top 100 since May 2022 and I do think that becomes a factor in this match.
MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 6.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lorenzo Musetti - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Muchova - 5.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
French Open Update: 6-5, + 0.20 Units (22 Units Staked, + 1% Yield)
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