NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Picks- Games 1-4
Three years ago most people believed the NBA Bubble was not a true reflection of how the NBA PlayOffs would have shaped up with all of the games played without fans and on neutral courts.
Travelling and having to win games in tough road environments makes and breaks teams and most look back dismissively on that time.
You can understand why, but in 2023 the same four teams that played and competed in the Conference Finals inside the NBA Bubble are back in the final four with the Boston Celtics, Miami Heat, Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers making it through the first two Rounds of the post-season.
I credit all four teams and I think the successes the Heat and Lakers have had will intensify the Play In Tournament going forward after both have become the first teams to come through that new feature of the post-season and win one, and now two, Series in the PlayOffs.
As a New York Knicks fan I am disappointed that an opportunity has been missed to reach the Conference Finals, but these four teams deserve the spotlight and should make for a couple of solid Series to be played before the NBA Finals begin on June 1st.
The Western Conference will get to go first and the first four games of both Series will be featured in this thread.
It has been a very productive NBA PlayOffs for the Picks this season and I will be looking to build on that in the days left with the 2023 winding down.
Tuesday 16th May
Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets Game 1 Pick: Revenge will be spoken about around the Denver Nuggets who were beaten by the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Bubble in what was the Western Conference Finals in 2020. That is not on the mind of the players, even though four of that roster are still with the Nuggets, but instead the focus is still to help the Denver Nuggets reach their first ever NBA Finals and then a first ever NBA Championship.
There is so much to like about the construction of this Denver roster with the depth that will be tough for any team to overcome over a best of seven Series. They have largely been pretty comfortable during the first two Rounds of the PlayOffs and the Nuggets will feel that earning the Number 1 Seed in the Conference has been a huge boost considering how good they have been at home all season.
These teams have split four games in the regular season, but Denver have been quick to point out that the Los Angeles Lakers are a much changed team now.
LeBron James and Anthony Davis are still around from the 2020 Championship team, but this is a considerably different roster make up compared with the one the Nuggets saw in their last meeting with the Lakers in January. Since the trades were made, the Los Angeles Lakers have been much better than their Number 7 Seed and having to come through the Play In Tournament would suggest and upset wins over the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors means they are afforded a lot of respect.
The key to those Series wins has been winning Game 1 on the road and then holding serve when those Series have shifted back to Los Angeles. There is no doubt that the Lakers will feel they can win one of the two tough games to open up in Denver, but the Nuggets are well rested and they have been very strong at home throughout this PlayOff run.
I do like the way Denver can match up with Los Angeles and they are much more balanced Offensively than the Grizzlies and Warriors. Jamal Murray has been listed as Questionable for the home team, but I would be surprised if he is not suited up and this is a Nuggets team that is capable of lighting up the scoreboard both inside the paint and from the distance.
The battle between Nikola Jokic and Anthony Davis on both ends of the court are going to be key, but the Lakers, like the Phoenix Suns, are not a team that will have the same kind of impact from the three point range as the Denver Nuggets. The Lakers do have more depth than the Suns, or so it feels like, but this Denver team have to be given a lot more respect than I have seen so far this season and the Number 1 Seed can make a statement.
Home teams have tended to open the Conference Finals in strong form and they are 5-1 against the spread in the last six tries in Game 1. This is a big spread considering the stage we have reached in the NBA PlayOffs, but the Nuggets have shown they can cover the mark, while the Lakers have tended to be well beaten when they have dropped games in the post-season.
Again, I hate opposing LeBron James and what he can do and this is a player who will be looking to cement his legacy as perhaps the best player of all time if he can help take this Lakers team to the Championship. The pressure is on the Denver Nuggets as they have made it clear that it is Championship or bust as far as their own expectations are concerned, but the Nuggets have shown they can handle that so far and I do think the depth of their team will be key.
The role players have really been good at home in this post-season run and I will back the Denver Nuggets to maintain the recent trend of home teams in Game 1 of the Conference Finals and to win and cover.
Number 1 Seeds have tended to prove their worth when asked to cover big marks in the Conference Finals in recent years and I think the Denver Nuggets will do that to open the Western Conference Finals in 2023.
Wednesday 17th May
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 1 Pick: Getting through tough spots has become the norm for this Boston Celtics team and winning a Game 7 in the PlayOffs is something this team has done three times over the last two seasons. The latest was in the Conference Semi Final Series against the Philadelphia 76ers as the Boston Celtics recovered from dropping Game 5 at home to win two straight and move through in seven games.
For the third time in four seasons, the Boston Celtics are facing the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals after the latter beat the New York Knicks in six games and earned themselves a couple of extra days of rest.
These could be important with Jimmy Butler banged up in the Conference Semi Final Series and with the Miami Heat already short-handed through injury. The Heat won the Conference Finals played against the Boston Celtics in the NBA Bubble in six games, but the Celtics were able to get the better of Miami in seven games twelve months ago.
Most will have Boston down as a strong favourite to win this Series as the Number 2 Seed in the Eastern Conference compared with the Miami Heat, who are the first Number 8 Seed to reach the Conference Finals since 1999 when the New York Knicks were able to do that.
I can understand why the Boston Celtics are favoured considering they have shown more consistency than the Miami Heat on both sides of the court through the season, but the PlayOffs are a different beat. Add in the fact that the regular season series was split two each with both winning one game on the road and I do think the Miami Heat have to be respected, especially as they are plenty experienced of playing in these big games and as much as the Boston Celtics.
However, over the course of seven games I would think the Celtics have the depth and the three point shooting that will ultimately see them prevail.
Game 1 may offer the Miami Heat the best chance to steal home court advantage from the Celtics though and that is because teams playing after a Game 7 win in a PlayOff Series have continued to struggle in the opening of the next Series. The Golden State Warriors were beaten in that situation in the Conference Semi Final Series and I do think the Miami Heat are perhaps being disrespected with the opening line and will have certainly been using that to motivate them.
I am backing the Denver Nuggets as a big home favourite, one of more than 5 points, but those teams have struggled to cover in the Conference Finals and this time I am opposing the Celtics who are laying 8 points.
Overall Boston are the superior team in my opinion, but the Miami Heat could cover in a losing effort with the amount of points they are being given and they are 13-5 against the spread in their last eighteen games in Boston. The Heat covered as a home favourite to open the Eastern Conference Finals last year against the Boston Celtics, but this time I am looking for the Heat to produce enough Offensively to stay with an opponent who have invested a lot of effort to win two games in a row to reach the Conference Finals for a second year in succession.
Thursday 18th May
Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Pick: The Denver Nuggets have taken Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals so will clearly be pleased with how the opening game went, but the Los Angeles Lakers may have taken something positive from the second half performance. Adjustments made saw the Lakers fight back from a 21 point deficit and actually come very close to stealing Game 1 on the road, although ultimately they did come up slightly short in a game where they led just once when scoring the first bucket of the Finals.
The positive second half will give the Lakers something to hold onto, although LeBron James made it clear that they cannot afford to fall into a big hole as they did in Game 1. Moving Anthony Davis away from guarding Nikola Jokic seemed to help stiffen the Lakers Defensive unit and I expect the move to a bigger line up to occur very quickly in Game 2 starts as the first one did.
In fact it may be an adjustment that sees the Lakers begin with a new starting five, although they will also have to accept the fact that they may not be able to improve Offensively. In Game 1 the Lakers hit 55% of their field goals, and were an impressive 46% from the three point range, but that is a number which is considerably higher than what would be expected from them.
Lonnie Walker IV, Dennis Schroeder and Austin Reaves combined for 9/15 from the three point range and that is a mark that will be difficult to replicate on the road for a second game in a row. Add in the fact that some of the Nuggets were struggling with fouls piling up and I think those players were afforded a bit more space than expected and Game 2 might see those role players slow down.
The Nuggets may also be expected to have a step back in terms of their shooting having also shot 55% from the field and 47% from the three point arc. However, they have shown throughout this PlayOffs run that they are very good at home and I certainly think Denver can maintain their edge on the boards, which should see them beat the Lakers for a second time in this Western Conference Finals.
Thanks to their Fourth Quarter push, the Lakers lost Game 1 by just 6 points, but close losses have not made for good opportunities to bounce back and cover in the next game in the Conference Finals, especially when teams are playing on the road. Those losing by 10 or fewer points and then playing on the road are on a poor 4-9 run against the spread, while the Denver Nuggets will want to back up the fact that teams that won Game 1 at home are 6-4 against the spread in Game 2.
Los Angeles have won Game 1 on the road in both of the previous two PlayOff Series, but they have been blown out in Game 2 and I think the Denver Nuggets have a more consistent approach at home which sees them cover in this one.
Friday 19th May
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 2 Pick: After building a decent lead at the end of the first half, the Boston Celtics looked to be making a mockery of the long trend of how much Game 7 winners have struggled in the opening game of the next Series in the NBA PlayOffs.
Some will suggest it was complacency, others may suggest a bit of mental fatigue, but for whatever reason, the Boston Celtics played a shocking Third Quarter and ultimately were not able to turn the momentum back in their favour.
It means dropping Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals and Head Coach Joe Mazzulla will have had to accept the criticisms of his team, even if he has not completely agreed with it. The Coach is right when he says Boston won three of the four Quarters played, but the Celtics were so bad in the Third Quarter that they dug themselves into a deep hole and one they were not able to escape.
Adjustments will be made by the Celtics who have been a big three point shooting team, but who only threw up the deep ball twenty-nine times in Game 1. They dominated the points in the paint in the first half to build a big lead, but the Celtics are a team that have a number of quality three point shooters and this has been the successful plan, while I am sure the team will be looking to get Jayson Tatum going after their star player failed to have any sort of positive impact in the Fourth Quarter.
A lot of the focus has been on the Boston Celtics as the higher Seed, but it remains clear that the Miami Heat feel disrespected and are using that to fuel them in the post-season. I have no doubt that the Heat players will have checked the lines set for the opening two games of the Eastern Conference Finals and will be looking to make a point with their hard nose basketball and veteran experience.
Jimmy Butler has been a consistent Offensive player in the post-season, but you do have to wonder if Miami can be as efficient shooting the three ball as they were in Game 1. In stealing home court, the Heat hit 52% of their three pointers, but this is a team that have averaged just 34% from that distance over the course of the season and you have to believe the role players will not be as hot from the field when going into Game 2.
Miami have shown energy and have rarely gone away easily, which makes this line feel a wide one, but I do think the Boston Celtics will have a reaction and I expect more out of Jayson Tatum and the bench.
The Heat do have a very good record in Boston in recent years as I mentioned in the Game 1 Pick, but the zigzag theory has been one that has been plenty successful in the NBA Conference Finals.
I backed the Heat a couple of days ago, but I am expecting the Boston Celtics to have a much stronger day from the three point line. At some stage the Miami Heat may feel they have already achieved what they have wanted by splitting the first two games in Boston and they could just lose some of the intensity before heading back home this weekend and I am going to back the Celtics to bounce back with a big win.
Saturday 20th May
Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 3 Pick: The narrative after Game 1 was about how the Los Angeles Lakers had found a good system to deal with the Denver Nuggets and that clearly did not sit very well with the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference.
The late rally saw the Lakers recover from a big hole, but they still fell short and ultimately dropped to 0-1 in the Series.
Some will have felt justified in believing the Lakers had found a good formula when they led in Game 2, but this time the Denver Nuggets were the team who fought back in the Fourth Quarter. The big difference- the Nuggets won Game 2 to take a 2-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals and it was clear that all of the talk of the previous two days had bothered Denver Head Coach Michael Malone.
A 2-0 lead is a good lead, but this is not a decisive won and I think the Los Angeles Lakers have to feel confident when returning home where they have been very strong in the NBA PlayOffs.
However, I do have to wonder if the schedule is going to work against the Lakers with the veteran stars Anthony Davis and LeBron James looking a little tired at times in Game 2. It was Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura who combined for 16/29 in Game 2 and they were 6/11 from the three point range in Game 2, but the Lakers will need more from their top two players if they are going to find a way to get back into the Western Conference Finals.
The Nuggets did not get a good game out of Jamal Murray in Game 2, but some late buckets might have rebuilt his confidence and the depth of the Denver team is hard to ignore.
At the same time I do think their role players have struggled to make the same impact on the road as they have at home and that should be encouraging for the Lakers as Game 3 is played in the City of Angels.
However, I do think that depth and some of the efforts that the Lakers have already put into this Series will mean another close game between these teams.
Teams that are 0-2 down in the Conference Finals are on a very good run of covering in Game 3, but I was anticipating the Lakers being a much smaller favourite than they are for this one.
The oddsmakers know the money will come down on Los Angeles, especially in their desperate position, but I think the Denver Nuggets will find enough scoring to keep this one close.
A 3-8 record against the spread for teams leading 2-0 in the Conference Finals is a concern, but the Nuggets have shown they have the consistency to not only stay with the Lakers, but to beat them. Winning in Game 3 won't be easy, but the Nuggets can avoid the blowout at the very least and this could be another game in this Series that comes down to the final two minutes of the Fourth Quarter.
Sunday 21st May
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 3 Pick: Poor decision making and key players being far too quiet in the Fourth Quarter have put the Boston Celtics in an unenviable position in the Eastern Conference Finals. Losing Game 1 would have hurt, but they blew a couple of big leads and allowed Jimmy Butler to take over the final six minutes of the Fourth Quarter in Game 2 and that means the Celtics have dropped both home games to the Miami Heat.
Even now the Boston Celtics are considered favourites to come out of this Series, but there is a lot of pressure on the shoulders of the players.
Some will want to blame Grant Williams for talking trash to Jimmy Butler which seemed to intensify the performance of the latter, but I think much more needs to be made of Jayson Tatum's failure to have an impact in the Fourth Quarter for a second game in a row. There has to be a worry that he left something on the court when producing a big Fourth Quarter in Game 6 and then a huge Game 7 in the Second Round win over the Philadelphia 76ers, but the Celtics know they need Tatum if they are going to beat this hard nosed Miami team.
It is somewhat surprising to see the Celtics down as the road favourite, especially as the Miami Heat have beaten them in a couple of different ways- Game 1 was about the efficiency of the shooting, but Game 2 saw the Heat dominate the boards and that was good enough to earn enough second chance points to make up for the drop off in the three point shooting percentages.
A big problem for Boston has been the struggles with their own three point shooting. They will also know that Jayson Tatum has to do more in the Fourth Quarter even if his overall numbers have been steady enough in the first two games.
He would be helped if some of the role players can improve their own output, but nothing is going to come easy against this Miami Heat team that look to be playing with a confidence that will be very difficult to shake.
Being back at home is a big help for the Miami Heat who have won all five PlayOff games here and largely in blowout fashion.
They have also won four in a row against the Boston Celtics this season and I won't be that surprised to see people taking the points with the home team.
Road favourites of less than 5 points have not had a very good record at covering the spread in the Conference Finals and that is the situation facing Boston, although it should be noted that those teams were 2-0 against the spread last season.
More importantly is that teams in a 2-0 lead in the Conference Finals are just 3-8 against the spread in the last eleven occasions where that situation has been played out. The Nuggets are in the same boat on Saturday and I have looked for them to cover, but I think the Miami Heat have not dominated the first two games and you have to believe more is to come from the Boston Celtics.
This is a big moment for the Celtics, who should have won at least one of the first two games and might even believe they should be the team with a 2-0 lead. They are an experienced group who know what needs to be done if they are going become NBA Champions and I think we see a reaction to the drama around them as the Celtics get back into the Eastern Conference Finals.
Monday 22nd May
Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 4 Pick: You have to feel that the back of the Western Conference Finals has been broken with the Denver Nuggets moving into a 3-0 lead against the Los Angeles Lakers. There have been moments from the Lakers, who have shown fight and desire, but the depth of the Denver Nuggets is proving too much and their spacing with Nikola Jokic means the three point shooters are finding open looks and knocking them down.
It wasn't The Joker who should be credited for the Game 3 win, but Jamal Murray stepped up to pile up 37 points and make up for what he felt was a below par effort in Game 2.
Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are the keys for the Nuggets as they are on the brink of making their first ever appearance in the NBA Finals, but the role players and the bench have made timely impacts throughout the PlayOffs run and this Denver team is going to be very difficult shake off.
No one is giving it up on the Los Angeles Lakers side, but you do have to wonder how much they have left having looked clearly second best in the Western Conference Finals. Austin Reaves has to be given a lot of credit for giving the Lakers a third option alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis, but Los Angeles cannot make enough Defensive stops and ultimately have not found enough from the likes of D'Angelo Russell and Jarred Vanderbilt.
Game 4 is on their home court and you have to believe the Lakers are going to put in a big effort to try and at least force the Denver Nuggets to close the Series at home.
However, it should be noted that teams facing elimination this early in the Conference Finals are just 2-4 outright and 2-3-1 against the spread in the last six when in this situation. It has to be a worry for Lakers backers as the home favourite considering how they have just struggled to keep up with the depth of the Nuggets and I would lean with taking the points in Game 4, although the spread has come down a couple of points from where the layers had left the mark in Game 3.
One trend that has been evident in elimination games at this stage of the Conference Finals is that teams facing the end of the season have allowed an average of 118 points per game in the last five when in this situation. This is a Series that has seen two of the three games played finish above the total points mark set and I do think the Los Angeles Lakers are going to have to hoist up plenty of three pointers to keep up with the Denver Nuggets.
The road team hit seventeen from the distance in Game 3 and at a 41% clip, and Denver have managed at least fourteen from beyond the three point mark in each game of the Western Conference Finals. Los Angeles were very efficient from the three point mark in Game 1, but have hoisted up at least thirty in the last two games without the same level of success and I do think the formula to extend this Series is finding someone to get going from the distance.
LeBron James has really struggled to do that, but the Lakers need scoring if they are going to find a way to win this one and I think that will encourage another high-scoring game with both teams expected to combine to cover the line set.
Tuesday 23rd May
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 4 Pick: There are going to be plenty of incriminations thrown around at the end of the Eastern Conference Finals with the Boston Celtics wondering how things have gone as wrong as they have. Despite the money flooding on the Celtics in Game 3, the Boston players seemingly thought they were just going through the motions of a regular season game as they offered a listless display that has left them in a 3-0 hole.
That means both Conference Finals could be concluded as soon as the 23rd May, meaning we will have two full weeks before the NBA Finals are set to start.
The Denver Nuggets will be looking to close the show on Monday when playing Game 4 against the Los Angeles Lakers, but they are on the road and the Miami Heat are at home.
A lot of people have suggested this is the most even NBA season we have seen in a long time and the Miami Heat reaching the Eastern Conference Finals and moving to the brink of the NBA Finals have backed up those who have believed that to be the case. The Number 8 Seed in the East needed some big buckets deep into the Fourth Quarter of their win over the Chicago Bulls in the final Play In Tournament game, but the Heat have dominated the top two Seeds in the East in the PlayOffs and have won seven of the eight games played against the Celtics and the Milwaukee Bucks.
An experienced team that reached the NBA Finals in 2020, the Miami Heat have dominated this Series and led from whistle to whistle in Game 3. In saying that, the Boston Celtics did have their chances in the first two games, although those opportunities missed seem to have deflated the players and it is going to take a monumental effort to bring this one home.
As I have mentioned in the Denver Game 4 preview, teams facing elimination this early in the Conference Finals have tended to lose and it is hard to make a case for the Boston Celtics after what we saw a couple of nights ago. They cannot make stops Defensively, while the Offensive game plan has looked messy to say the least and it has meant Boston are going to need to make NBA history by becoming the first team to win a best of seven Series from 0-3 down.
It has happened in the other US Sports that have these PlayOff Series to decide the Champion at the end of the season, but the NBA has been the exception and I do think Boston are lost.
Miami will continue doing what they are- even double teaming Jimmy Butler is unlikely to work as we saw in Game 3 with the Miami shooters playing with a confidence that will be tough to contain.
Instead of picking a side with the Heat favoured for the first time in the Eastern Conference Finals, I will go back to the same trend that I mentioned for the Nuggets-Lakers Game 4 and that is how porous teams facing elimination have been.
The team in a 3-0 lead have averaged 118 points per game in Game 4 of the Conference Finals in recent times in this situation and the Celtics have allowed Miami to do what they want Offensively.
It has led to the Heat averaging 120 points per game in the Eastern Conference Finals, while the Boston Celtics have hit triple digits in all three games too.
With the total line where it is, I will look for Game 4 to surpass the number set with both teams likely to put up strong Offensive stats again.
MY PICKS: 16/05 Denver Nuggets - 6 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
17/05 Miami Heat + 8 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
18/05 Denver Nuggets - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
19/05 Boston Celtics - 9 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
20/05 Denver Nuggets + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
21/05 Boston Celtics - 3 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
22/05 Los Angeles Lakers-Denver Nuggets Over 224.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
23/05 Miami Heat-Boston Celtics Over 216 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Conference Finals Update: 2-5-1, - 3.18 Units (8 Units Staked, - 39.75% Yield)
Semi Final: 14-8-1, + 4.90 Units (23 Units Staked, + 21.30% Yield)
First Round: 22-9, + 11.04 Units (31 Units Staked, + 35.61% Yield)
PlayOffs 2023: 36-17-1, + 15.94 Units (54 Units Staked, + 29.52% Yield)
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