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Sunday, 28 May 2023

French Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2023 (May 28th)

The absence of Rafael Nadal has hurt the French Open, but the second major of the 2023 season still has plenty of storylines attached to it.

The organisers have been put under pressure to have more WTA matches in the showcase slots, but I do think that they are in a tough position. Some of the incidents in Madrid have been out of their control, while the Rome Masters have added to what many feel is a slightly disrespectful approach to the scheduling for the WTA Tour matches.

After having very few women's matches in the Evening Session slot that the French Open used for the first time twelve months ago, more eyes are on the approach that will be taken this year.

If I am being honest, I would be disappointed if I paid big money for a match that could potentially be over inside an hour, while some people do prefer the ebbs and flows of a best of five set match more than a best of three set match anyway. At the end of the day, the organisers do owe more to the paying public than anyone else and they have to find the balance between perceived 'fairness' and actually doing what is expected from them.

This is not an easy discussion in a world where people want to be seen to be doing the right thing even when they perhaps don't believe it is the right reasons for a decision being made. The fairest way would be to have two matches in an evening session, but clay court matches can go very long and I don't think that is the right approach either, but simply picking seven women's and seven men's matches over the course of two weeks doesn't feel correct either.


An improving WTA Tour will make it easier and I do think the stronger results produced by three top names will make the entire appeal of the Tour stronger too. Elena Rybakina, Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek are trying to create a new 'Big Three' and I do think the WTA will benefit if these three players are able to lead the way and start picking up multiple Slam titles.

I do think they are all capable of winning the title in two weeks time and all three have a clay title under their belt over the last two months, although Rybakina and Sabalenka perhaps come into the French Open with fewer health concerns than Iga Swiatek.

There will be some challengers behind these three players, but I think the confidence the top three names are playing with makes them favourites to win all of the Slams left and I do think, as mentioned, that this will benefit the Tour.


No Rafael Nadal has opened up the top of the men's tournament and Daniil Medvedev winning in Rome might have just created a new threat on the surface with the Russian player previously describing how much he hates playing on the clay.

He played well in Paris twelve months ago and I do think Medvedev is a threat to Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, while Holger Rune and Stefanos Tsitsipas will have belief in their own tennis.

I think it is going to mean a fascinating two weeks in Roland Garros which gets underway on Sunday as a number of First Round matches have been scheduled for the day.


A couple of really poor tournaments meant I have taken a step back from the Tennis Picks in the lead up to the French Open, but that is something that I will be prepared to do in 2023 in a bid to reverse the poor 2022 numbers.

There will be a thread for each day through the entirety of the Tournament and I am looking for the kind of results that I came away with from the Australian Open back in January.


Andrey Rublev - 6.5 games v Laslo Djere: He might not be considered as a genuine title contender in Paris over the next two weeks, but Andrey Rublev has reached the Quarter Final at the French Open in two of the last three seasons and I think he can come through what is an awkward looking First Round match here.

It should be noted that Andrey Rublev was a First Round loser in 2021 between the Quarter Final runs and so he might be a little vulnerable, especially against someone who is quite happy playing on the red dirt like Laslo Djere.

However, there is a gap in the level of tennis that the two of these players can produce and I think that Andrey Rublev will be able to lean on the fact that he has had the better of their previous meetings on the Tour. The match played at the US Open between these players did need to go the distance so there will be encouragement for Laslo Djere, but the latter will have to serve well and he will need a bit of help from Andrey Rublev and not hitting the kind of level he can on the clay courts.

Laslo Djere has a 3-4 record against top 50 Ranked players on the clay courts in 2023, but his numbers have taking a hit and I do think he could struggle to stay with Andrey Rublev over a best of five set match.

Andrey Rublev has broken in 32% of return games played on the clay courts in 2023 and he did win the Monte Carlo Masters, while following up with a couple of Fourth Round appearances in Madrid and Rome. He is clearly enjoying playing on the surface and Rublev has been pretty consistent against the opponents faced and I do think he can cover this handicap mark even if this match needs to go at least four sets.


Lorenzo Musetti - 6.5 games v Mikael Ymer: Plenty of headlines would have been made by Mikael Ymer in his last tournament, but none of them for good reasons after an argument with the umpire escalated to the Swedish player cracking his racquet against the umpire's chair.

It led to the Disqualification and means Ymer has not played as much clay court tennis in preparation for the French Open as he may have hoped.

The serve is not a strength for Mikael Ymer and that leaves him more vulnerable on the slower clay courts with every point being a challenge to win. He did reach the Third Round in Paris last year before being taken apart by Stefanos Tsitsipas so has to be respected, but I would expect a clay courter like Lorenzo Musetti to have too much for his opponent in this interesting First Round match.

Lorenzo Musett is into the top 20 of the World Rankings and he has long been thought of right up alongside Jannik Sinner as the future of Italian Tennis. Injury issues have perhaps hindered the progress in the last couple of years, but Musetti is very comfortable playing on the red dirt and he has the kind of numbers that suggest he will have too much for Mikael Ymer.

The difference I expect to see is that Lorenzo Musetti may get a few more cheaper points on the serve, while he can match the kind of return game that Mikael Ymer may have felt is a strength against many on the Tour.

When they met on an indoor hard court, Lorenzo Musetti was the solid winner and he did create a lot more Break Points on the day, although Mikael Ymer had twelve himself. I do think we will see a few breaks of serve in this one, but Musetti should be able to earn a few more than Mikael Ymer and I do think it will put the Italian in a position to win and cover this mark.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 6.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lorenzo Musetti - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 8.5 Games @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)
Karolina Muchova @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

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