NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Pick- Games 5-7
It has been a strange NBA Conference Finals and the television networks must be glad we have at least one of those Series going into Game 5, especially with the NBA Finals not scheduled to start until June 1st.
The Denver Nuggets making the NBA Finals is perhaps not what the higher ups in television would have hoped for, but the ratings are potentially going to take a big hit if we have to wait so long for the NBA Finals to start and if the Miami Heat, not the Boston Celtics are taking part.
And in reality it is going to take a history making effort from the Boston Celtics to earn back to back NBA Finals appearances from 3-0 down in the Eastern Conference Finals, although they have at least managed to force a Game 5 back at home.
It has also been a frustrating time for my NBA Picks through the Conference Finals- I am 2-5-1 so far in the Conference Finals, but the irritation is that four of the selections have produced a 0-3-1 return despite losing by a combined FOUR points.
That includes both Game 4 selections finishing under the total by a combined 1.5 points, which is remarkable really.
Oh well, it has been a positive PlayOffs and I am looking to get back on the right road through the remainder of the Eastern Conference Finals, although it is going to be a losing round for the selections. Fortunately the opening two Rounds have produced strong results and that will at least mean going into the NBA Finals looking to build on numbers rather than rallying.
Thursday 25th May
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: The NBA PlayOffs have had a day off with the Western Conference Finals swept by the Denver Nuggets, but there is going to be a Game 5 in the Eastern Conference Finals after the Boston Celtics put in a big effort to bring the Series back home after falling into a 3-0 hole.
There is still a tall mountain for the Celtics to climb knowing that not one team in the history of the NBA have rallied from 3-0 down in a best of seven Series to progress. However, the team have kept talking about 'one game at a time' and Marcus Smart did warn the Miami Heat to not allow Boston to 'get one' ahead of the Game 4 played on the road on Tuesday.
The Celtics have got one now and there were positive signs from the Game 4 win, although they have dug themselves into a deep hole and any kind of day where the shooting is slightly down will likely mean elimination. That is a pressure that the players are not going to be that used to dealing with, although avoiding a sweep is a big first step on the road to recovery.
I have to believe the Miami Heat are disappointed that they did not close the Series out at the first time of asking, but they will also be pretty comfortable with the way the Eastern Conference Finals have shaped up. They have already won twice on the road against the Boston Celtics so I am not expecting Miami to be feeling that much pressure here, but Jimmy Butler and his team will not want to enter a Game 6 or a Game 7 so there is something for them to have to balance out mentally and physically.
Game 4 was clearly the worst shooting day that the Miami Heat have had in the Conference Finals, but they will believe that is an exception rather than a rule for the remainder of this Series.
The Heat only managed to hit eight shots from the distance at 25% on Tuesday, but this team have shown they can be more productive than that. Gabe Vincent did roll his ankle and that will be a concern for Miami considering the kind of impact he has had already, and Miami will need him and Caleb Martin to keep picking up the slack for the team.
Boston might have actually worked out a way to slow down Jimmy Butler, and that will be important to them, although the star Miami player will know he missed some open looks in Game 4 and those are unlikely to be repeated. However, it has also been clear throughout this Series that the role players are going to be key and that is where the Heat have had a clear advantage up until Game 4 when the likes of Marcus Smart and Al Horford got going.
You can make a case for picking either side on the spread- the Celtics are down a couple of points from Game 2 and the higher Seed and the favourite have been strong plays in recent Game 5s in the Conference Finals.
However, Miami have shown they can compete with the Celtics here and have won twice as a big underdog, while the team that lost Game 4 have been very good at covering the mark set in Game 5.
Instead I am going to go back to the well at least one more time with this one to surpass the total games line set, even if I have been punched in the gut with each of the last two games played in the NBA PlayOffs finishing below the number by just 1.5 points combined.
It includes needing one more point in Game 4 to see the total beaten, but I do think both teams have shown they can score plenty of points and I expect Miami to have a better three point shooting day in this one compared with Tuesday. You know the Celtics will not shy away from hoisting up plenty of three pointers of their own and I do think the Offensive game plans are set and have proven to be successful.
Miami also only had one Offensive rebound in Game 4 and grabbing those can lead to more trips to the Foul Line, which will contribute to this one heading over the line set.
Both games played here in the Eastern Conference Finals have been high-scoring affairs and I will look for this one to go the same way.
Saturday 27th May
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 6 Pick: There has not been a moment when the Boston Celtics have acted like they have 'nothing to lose' in the Eastern Conference Finals, even when the team fell into a 3-0 hole. The players would have known what kind of reaction they would have gotten from the fans if they were not able to at least avoid the sweep, but the players have also made it clear to the Miami Heat that if they 'got one', the Finals is far from over.
Poor Fourth Quarters proved costly in Game 1 and Game 2, but the blowout in Game 3 really stung and Marcus Smart even stated to the Heat players that there is no need for so much trash-talking considering Boston beat Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals twelve months ago. I think that trash-talking has just fired up some of the Boston players and winning consecutive games has given the Number 2 Seed the momentum.
And it is not just Boston winning games, but they have been blowing right through the Heat in the last two games, which has shifted the pressure onto Miami as they look to avoid becoming the first team in NBA history to lose a best of seven Series once moving into a 3-0 lead.
The pressure is building, although Jimmy Butler gladly told reporters that the team is fine and they will be closing the door in Game 6. He has also 'guaranteed' the Heat will make the NBA Finals, but injuries to Tyler Herro and, more recently, Gabe Vincent are hurting.
Gabe Vincent has been immense as a third option for the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals, but hurt himself in Game 4 and missed Game 5 entirely. It is not a coincidence that was also the game with the lowest points total for the Miami Heat as others have not been able to step in and replicate what Vincent brought to the team, while veteran Kyle Lowry came into the starting line up and was terrible.
The status remains questionable for Vincent, but I think the feeling was that he was close to being ready for Game 5 and I do think the Miami Heat will have him back. However, if he is not at 100%, I do think the Heat are going to have to play a lot better Defensively and also hope that the Boston role players slow down.
Earlier in the Eastern Conference Finals, the likes of Al Horford, Marcus Smart and Derrick White struggled and that put too much on the shoulders of Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown. Those three players combined for 76 points through the first three games of the Eastern Conference Finals, but all have rediscovered their mojo and have produced 92 points combined in the two wins.
It was Smart and White that led the scoring for the Celtics in Game 5 as they pummelled Miami from the three point range and they have clearly found their rhythm from the distance.
Boston are the superior team and they are going to be very difficult to beat if they are hitting their three pointers at 40% or better as they have in the last two games. This is a team that will hoist up so many of those shots that a rhythm from the range opens things up for Tatum and Brown to take over and I do think the Celtics are in a position to force a Game 7 with a second win on the road in South Florida.
You have to believe that the Heat are going to pick up their level being back at home, but Jimmy Butler is being harassed and not finding too many open looks, while Bam Adebayo has really been struggling since a huge Game 2 effort. Ultimately the Heat role players are not performing as they did and the Celtics can make it three in a row on Saturday evening when Game 6 is scheduled to take place.
I will note that four of the last five teams who had a chance to close out a Conference Finals in Game 6 have managed to do that and two of those have been in upset wins like the one Miami are chasing this time.
However, I also think the Celtics have found the necessary adjustments to get back into the Eastern Conference Finals and they can do enough to win this one and bring the Series back to Boston for an epic Monday night clash.
Monday 29th May
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 7 Pick: It has been a remarkable Eastern Conference Finals, but Game 6 might have been the best of the games played.
For so long it looked like the Boston Celtics were on course for a big win in Game 6- they led by double digits with just four minutes remaining in the Fourth Quarter- but they were not able to finish off the Miami Heat. Amazingly the Heat found a way to lead with three seconds on the clock and the Number 8 Seed looked on course to join the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals, but an Offensive Rebound tip-in from Derrick White saved the Celtics at the buzzer and forced this Game 7 back at home.
They are just the the third team to have rallied from 3-0 down to earn a Game 7 spot, but the Celtics will be aware that there has yet to be a NBA team who have recovered to win a Series from being in a deep hole. This is going to bring some pressure onto the court, but the Celtics are experienced and they will look back twelve months when they beat the Miami Heat in a Game 7.
This is the first time a team that trailed 3-0 will be hosting Game 7 and I am not surprised that the Boston Celtics are considered strong favourites.
Gabe Vincent was back for the Heat and he was a part of a high percentage three point effort which ultimately allowed Miami to stick with the Boston Celtics.
I do think Game 7 will come down to which of these teams is most productive from the long range, but the Boston Celtics have proved something to themselves by winning a game when they have struggled with their three point shooting. In Game 6 the Celtics only managed seven long range points compared with Miami's fourteen, but in the previous two games Boston had scored seventeen more three pointers than their opponent.
If Boston can get back on track with their three point shooting, I do think they have the edge at home and teams that won Game 6 are on a 3-2 run against the spread in Game 7 of the Conference Finals.
Of course the Celtics are playing with a different kind of pressure, but I am not sure the Heat can replicate the shooting they produced from long range in Game 6 and ultimately that will see Miami make history for the wrong reasons.
MY PICKS: 25/05 Boston Celtics-Miami Heat Over 215.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
27/05 Boston Celtics - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
29/05 Boston Celtics - 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Conference Finals Update: 2-8-1, - 6.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 56.18% Yield)
Semi Final: 14-8-1, + 4.90 Units (23 Units Staked, + 21.30% Yield)
First Round: 22-9, + 11.04 Units (31 Units Staked, + 35.61% Yield)
PlayOffs 2023: 36-17-1, + 15.94 Units (54 Units Staked, + 29.52% Yield)
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