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Sunday, 23 May 2021

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (May 23rd)

The final weekend of the 2020/21 Premier League season is upon us and that means the end of the Fantasy Football season, which has been a difficult one for so many.

Best of all is that the supporters are back and that should mean we no longer have the ten Premier League games played in individual slots around a weekend- for me that has ruined some of the enjoyment of the Fantasy game and I am looking forward to a more 'normal' schedule from August even if we have to still accept 'Sky Jackings' for match going fans.

For Fantasy players there are still Mini-Leagues to be won this weekend, but in reality there is very little to be settled in the Premier League.

The main focus is on the race for the final two Champions League places and confirming 7th place, which is going to see a club entering the newly created Conference League Tournament, but the majority of the teams can begin to look ahead to a well deserved break. Some players will be ready to join their international squads in preparation for the Euro 2020 Tournament beginning in less than a month, but for most it will be a break after a difficult season and the chance to prepare much more efficiently for the new Premier League season which will get back underway on August 14th.


Arsenal v Brighton Pick: The final day of the Premier League season looked like being a largely dead rubber game between both Arsenal and Brighton.

The home team looked to be short of the top seven, while Brighton were safe from the drop, but results have gone in favour of Arsenal over the last two weeks.

A late show at Selhurst Park secured a fourth victory in a row for Arsenal in the Premier League and they are now arguably favourites to finish in the top seven and a return to European Football. While Arsenal have this winnable home game, the two teams immediately above them in 7th and 8th are playing away games at teams inside the top five of the Premier League table.

It is not beyond the realms of possibility that Tottenham Hotspur and Everton will both drop points and that would open the door for an Arsenal win to take them into the top seven. That would be a huge achievement for Mikel Arteta considering where Arsenal were at the beginning of the month, and may also mean management will stick with the manager who has not had a great season.

The layers know the importance of this fixture for Arsenal and they are taking no chances with the price despite the team perhaps overperforming in recent games. West Brom, Chelsea and Crystal Palace will feel aggrieved in their defeats to Arsenal and Brighton have nothing to lose.

My only worry for Brighton is that they are coming off a tough and emotional win over Manchester City in their final home game. Graham Potter's team came from 0-2 down to beat the ten man Champions, but they have lost Danny Welbeck to an injury and are also without Neal Maupay.

Lewis Dunk is back to offer some better defensive resiliency and Brighton do create chances, while they have enjoyed their recent visits to the Emirates Stadium. A poor recent away record is a concern, but Brighton deserved more at Sheffield United and were winning at Wolves before Dunk was sent off when the game turned around.

Arsenal are finding a way to win games and will have the fans to help support them, but they still look plenty short in this fixture. They do 'need' to win and have been scoring plenty of goals, but defensively there are some holes that Brighton can exploit if near their best and I think the visitors can make life difficult for the hosts who have all the expectations and pressure to deal with.


Aston Villa v Chelsea Pick: There is plenty of pressure on Chelsea to complete the job and secure a top four finish in the Premier League and a return to the Champions League.

The victory over Leicester City has put Chelsea in command of one of the places behind Manchester City and Manchester United, but the pressure is that any dropped points could be capitalised on by both Leicester City and Liverpool.

Ultimately Thomas Tuchel will be demanding his players focus on what they can control and that is their own performance at Villa Park where Chelsea will secure a top four berth as long as they win. That won't be easy if Aston Villa's win at Tottenham Hotspur is anything to go by, but Dean Smith's team have been struggling for consistency over the last few months and that has ensured that they will be finishing 11th in the Premier League table.

Aston Villa have lost 2 of their last 4 at Villa Park and were perhaps a little fortunate to earn a draw with Everton in the last game here. Defensively they have been struggling, but there will be fans inside the Stadium and that could give Aston Villa a potential boost as they look to throw a spanner in the works for their visitors.

Jack Grealish's creativity and the pace in the final third will make Aston Villa dangerous, but they were given a huge helping hand by poor Tottenham Hotspur defending in the 1-2 win in North East London on Wednesday. Under their current manager Chelsea have not been giving up many big chances, but this is a team that has rarely blown opponents away with some inconsistency in the final third.

Another close win feels the most likely outcome for Chelsea and I do think they are experienced enough to avoid a slip up here. It will be far from easy and there may be some tense moments, but I think Chelsea end up breaking down an Aston Villa team who have recently lost to both Manchester clubs at Villa Park.

Expect some nerves for Chelsea fans, but I think they earn the victory in what is a relatively low-scoring game.


Fulham v Newcastle United Pick: Two seasons ago an already relegated Fulham were crushed by Newcastle United on the final day of the campaign.

The visitors look a big price to do the same again on Sunday, but they are without Callum Wilson and Fulham did show some heart in their 1-1 draw with Manchester United on Tuesday.

However, Fulham do lack goals and I think they are vulnerable defensively which makes them hard to trust as the favourite. I think Newcastle United have looked pretty good going forward in their most recent fixtures, but they can be hit and miss away from home and I think this is going to be a close game.

Ultimately I do think Newcastle United are being a touch disrespected as the underdog and they can contain Fulham for long enough to earn a positive result. Speed and creativity in the final third will make Newcastle United dangerous even without Callum Wilson and I think they will avoid a defeat at Craven Cottage.


Leeds United v West Brom Pick: Both of these teams may have come up from the Championship together last season, but it is Leeds United who will be extending their stay in the Premier League.

Leeds United have really impressed for the most part and Marcelo Bielsa's team are finishing up very strongly with 3 Premier League wins in a row and scoring goals for fun. They create plenty of chances and Leeds United have scored 9 goals in those victories, although they will also be looking forward to seeing a better pitch laid at Elland Road for the next campaign.

Despite that, Leeds United did hammer Tottenham Hotspur 3-1 here in their last fixture played at Elland Road and this time they will be given a huge boost by the fans in attendance. Nothing will change the mindset of the manager and that will mean the players will be asked to put in one more huge shift as they get forward and look to break down what has been a porous West Brom defence.

Sam Allardyce will be leaving The Hawthorns after this fixture is played, but he has been happy with the kind of response he got from his players in his six months in charge. Unfortunately it was not enough to take West Brom out of the bottom three, and this is a team that has not scored enough goals to cover what has been a defence that has struggled to prevent teams creating big chances.

I would not be that surprised if West Brom create chances here, but they have lost their last 2 at Elland Road. Leeds United play one way and they should be able to create some big chances against this West Brom team and with the fans I think they can give them a really strong send off before the next campaign will begin in August.

The goals being scored by Leeds United suggests they can win this game and likely by a couple of goals on the day.


Leicester City v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Both Leicester City and Tottenham Hotspur suffered 2-1 defeats in their penultimate Premier League fixtures and that means there is some real pressure on both clubs to respond on the final day.

Leicester City have lost control of their own destiny and likely need either Liverpool or Chelsea to drop points if they want to push back into the top four. Brendan Rodgers will likely want his team to ignore scores from other grounds, but the King Power Stadium will have fans in attendance and it may be impossible if either Liverpool or Chelsea fall behind.

Tottenham Hotspur have more control about their immediate future, but will know they likely need to win to secure European Football. The defeat to Aston Villa on Wednesday may not only be costly in terms of playing in Europe, but may have hardened Harry Kane's view that he needs to leave this part of North London in order to achieve what he wants from the remainder of his career.

Playing in the new European Conference League is unlikely to get Kane to change his mind, but Ryan Mason needs a response from his Tottenham Hotspur team. I expect a strong, attacking team to be named, but Spurs have looked really poor defensively and I think Leicester City will be able to expose any vulnerabilities on display.

However, Leicester City have not had the best time at the back without Jonny Evans and I do think this is a fixture that could produce at least three goals. 6 of the last 8 between Leicester City and Tottenham Hotspur have ended in three goals being shared out and I think that will be the case when they meet on Sunday, especially as both clubs are likely going to be chasing a result and goals through much of the ninety minutes to be played.

Some of the intensity of the game may come out of the Leicester City performance if they hear Liverpool and Chelsea are winning comfortably, but Brendan Rodgers has to ask his players to get forward. Spaces should open up as the game develops and I think at least three goals will be shared between these two teams.


Liverpool v Crystal Palace Pick: There may not be a lot of pressure on Crystal Palace this weekend as they look to give manager Roy Hodgson a perfect send off, but injuries have just piled up again.

Losing Eberechi Eze is a big blow, but Christian Benteke has been in fine form and his absence would be another dent in the chances of Crystal Palace causing an upset here. They can cause problems with the pace they have in the wide areas and Crystal Palace will look to take advantage of any set pieces they earn, while they will also believe there could be some nerves in the home dressing room.

Liverpool are in pole position to finish in the Champions League places, but they can't afford to drop any points. In their wins over West Brom and Burnley over the last week there have been opportunities for those teams against Liverpool, but Jurgen Klopp's front three look to have found form at the right time.

With the chances being created and Liverpool showing a touch more clinical finishing, you would have to give them a serious edge, although the layers are taking no chances with the prices for a home win. That is not surprising considering Liverpool 'need' to win to ensure they succeed in their ambitions, but I also think they just have to win and securing a wide win is not the main target of the day.

In saying that, Liverpool have enjoyed playing Crystal Palace in recent seasons and have scored four goals in each of the last 2 at Anfield between these teams. Liverpool also scored seven at Selhurst Park in December and I think they will likely need to score at least two to earn the points here.

They can go one better than that in securing their place back in the Champions League, although I would not be that surprised if Crystal Palace are able to play their part. Ultimately The Eagles have struggled defensively down the stretch with injuries and a more attacking approach meaning there are spaces for teams to exploit against this Crystal Palace team and I think Liverpool will end up becoming the latest to take advantage.


Manchester City v Everton Pick: If you had a look at the home/away form guide of both Manchester City and Everton you could make a case for the visitors earning a positive result on the final day of the Premier League season.

While Manchester City have lost 3 of their last 4 Premier League games at the Etihad Stadium, Everton have secured 4 away clean sheets in succession. A lack of goals has been a major problem for Everton though and they have only scored twice in that time, while the issues at Goodison Park have prevented Everton from going into the final day in the top seven.

They will not only need to better Tottenham Hotspur's result this weekend, but Everton are vulnerable to falling behind Arsenal if they fail to win and could fall behind Leeds United with a defeat. Carlo Ancelotti had made it clear he wanted to take Everton into Europe next season to further the development of the squad and the club in general and that means they are under pressure to get forward and attack the Champions.

Those losses at home will encourage Everton to get after Manchester City, but the fans are back at the Etihad Stadium and that should give the Champions a real boost. They are also trying to bounce back from the 3-2 loss at Brighton and Manchester City's players should be motivated to produce a big performance as they look to start the Champions League Final next weekend.

Manchester City have gotten the better of Everton in recent seasons too and I think they can win this game and likely punish an Everton team that may need to chase a result.


Sheffield United v Burnley Pick: Motivation on the final day of the season can be difficult to factor and especially when two clubs are basically playing out their schedules.

That is the case for Sheffield United and Burnley, although the home team will be given a boost by the fans that are in attendance. Sean Dyche will be trying to lift his Burnley players by asking for one more big effort to avoid their lowest League finish since 2016, but both Sheffield United and their visitors will be looking ahead to an off-season where they can finally get some rest into the legs.

Injuries are hurting Sheffield United which means they will rely on some of the younger members on the squad and I do think they are vulnerable. They don't score enough goals or create a lot of chances, but Sheffield United have been porous defensively and now have to deal with a Burnley team who have won their last 2 away Premier League games.

Burnley were crushed by Leeds United and Liverpool at Turf Moor over the last eight days, but they were not as outclassed as the scoreline on those days would have suggested. They created chances and I do think Burnley have some decent attacking options that can spark their team to one more victory on Sunday.

It should be competitive and the first goal is going to be huge, but I think Burnley show their Premier League quality to get the better of Sheffield United on the final day.


West Ham United v Southampton Pick: Not many would have predicted West Ham United could earn a spot in Europe next season and for that reason David Moyes and his players deserve a lot of credit. The goal difference advantage over Everton should mean West Ham United have essentially wrapped up at least a top seven finish, which means playing some sort of European Football, but results have put them in an even stronger position.

Avoiding defeat or Tottenham Hotspur failing to win at Leicester City would mean West Ham United are returning to the Europa League with a spot directly into the Group Stage on offer.

The fans are back in attendance at the London Stadium so you do have to imagine Moyes and his players are looking to focus on themselves and that is to get forward and score the goals to ensure a 6th place finish. West Ham United have lost back to back games here, but they could be facing the right opponent when taking on a Southampton team they have beaten 3 times in a row at home and scored plenty of goals against them.

Southampton have lost 4 away Premier League games in a row and conceded at least twice in each of those defeats. They have conceded 40 away goals this season which is the highest total in the Premier League and West Ham United are likely going to create some solid chances against them here.

Danny Ings will offer a threat and Southampton have a style that does produce chances, which also makes them dangerous, but the defeat to Leeds United on Tuesday will have knocked the confidence. A long season is coming to an end for Southampton, and West Ham United are going to be highly motivated as they look to secure Europa League Football in front of their fans.

Coupled together and with the strong recent history against Southampton, I think West Ham United can produce a solid win on Sunday to round out this successful campaign.


Wolves v Manchester United Pick: There isn't much on the line in terms of Premier League points for Wolves and Manchester United on Sunday.

However, Nuno Espirito Santo is managing Wolves for the last time having completed four successful seasons with the club, while Manchester United are looking for some momentum to take into the Europa League Final.

Injuries have really hurt Wolves who had back to back top seven finishes in the Premier League before this season. They are going to be without some key attacking players this weekend and scoring goals has been a problem for Wolves, although they are facing a Manchester United team that have looked out of sorts at the back over the last two weeks.

Manchester United have been very good away from home though and they do tend to score goals on their travels which will make them dangerous. Breaking down Wolves has been a tough test for Manchester United in the last couple of seasons, but they do have the quality in the final third and the big question is how long those top names will get to play on Sunday.

My feeling is that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is going to select a strong team and look for them to remain sharp before the Europa League Final in Gdansk on Wednesday. I do think some of those bigger players will be taken off in the second half to avoid injuries, but Manchester United should be able to create chances against a Wolves team that have struggled with the change in system they have been using this season.

The first goal is going to be very important and the fans are going to give the Wolves players a boost, but Manchester United should show their extra attacking quality. With key players out for Wolves, Manchester United should have every chance of completing an unbeaten away season in the Premier League and feel good about themselves before taking on Villarreal in the Europa League Final.

MY PICKS: Brighton + 1 Asian Handicap
Chelsea to Win & Under 3.5 Goals
Newcastle United + 0.25 Asian Handicap
Leeds United - 1.25 Asian Handicap
Leicester City-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals
Liverpool Over 2.5 Team Goals
Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap
Burnley 0 Asian Handicap
West Ham United & Over 1.5 Goals
Manchester United 0 Asian Handicap


Fantasy Football GameWeek 38
The final round of fixtures of the Fantasy Premier League game in the 2020/21 season are played this Sunday and that means Mini-Leagues can be won and lost at this late stage.

It has been a largely disappointing season for my team and I am going to need a really big week to crack into the top 100k, which has been my only realistic target for some time now.

My squad looks pretty set to have eleven starters on a weekend when manager's will give fringe players an opportunity and make surprising changes. We have seen that already over the last eight days and it does raise some questions as to what you should do with the remaining transfer, or transfers, you have left.

You don't have to look too deep to guess which teams will be targeted by those making transfers this week- the likes of Leeds United and West Ham United have good looking home games for attacking players, while Liverpool are in form and are another at home.

I am very likely going to have to take one final hit this weekend to just bring in a couple of players that could make the difference for me as I drop two Everton assets with a trip to an angry Manchester City to come. My feeling is that Manchester City will play a strong team with a week to prepare for the Champions League Final and Everton have simply not scored a lot of goals over the last month so there are better options out there to strengthen my eleven for this weekend.

Those three teams are the most likely ones I will target with my final transfers, although I am going to wait until as close to the deadline as possible in case any news is leaked as to who may be given a rest on the final day of the season. You would have to expect the likes of Liverpool, Chelsea, West Ham United and Leicester City to play strong teams with something to play for, but it can be a lot of guesswork at play and I can just wish you luck with your final decisions.

And after all is said and done, there will be a short rest period before attention turns to the Euro 2020 Tournament and a summer of Fantasy Football before we all go again in August.

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