The last Masters tournament before the French Open begins on Sunday in Rome and the ATP side of the event will have four First Round matches to be played on the day with the majority of the matches the final Qualifiers before a large chunk of the First Round gets going on Monday.
I have not had a very good season and I seem to be hitting too many really poor patches of form even within a week that changes a positive into a big negative.
It has been difficult at times and perhaps I am overthinking some aspects of my selections, but this is an important week to try and build some momentum and try and bring in some positive vibes before the French Open gets underway later this month. Some better luck would help, but I have to look inwards and demand better from my Picks which have simply not been good enough at identifying the matches that are fitting the criteria I demand.
Some adjustments are being made, but I hope to see them begin to pay dividends this week and moving through the French Open and into the grass court part of the Tour.
Filip Krajinovic v Felix Auger-Aliassime: Both of these players have had a difficult time on the clay courts over the last few weeks and they don't have much time to turn things around before the French Open begins at the end of the month. The more disappointed of the two players has to be Filip Krajinovic who has played well on the clay courts in the past, but struggled to get over the line in his matches more often than not this season.
He is playing against Felix Auger-Aliassime who has employed the services of Toni Nadal, Rafael's uncle, to help improve what has been a poor early career on the clay courts. Like many North American players, the clay courts are far from the kind of courts they would have grown up on and the Canadian has not really had much success over the last few weeks.
However, it should be noted that Auger-Aliassime has been beaten by Cristian Garin, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud and all three are very solid clay courters who have been playing at a higher level than Filip Krajinovic. The defeats will still have dented some of the confidence and the main problem that Felix Auger-Aliassime has had on this surface is finding a way to get his return game going.
Felix Auger-Aliassime has broken in just 20% of return games played on the clay courts in 2021 and it is not much of an improvement on the 2020 level in the few clay events played at the end of the season. The problem for the Canadian is that it is difficult for him to back up his serve on this surface and try and build scoreboard pressure in the same way he can on the faster surfaces and I do think this is another tough match for him.
Filip Krajinovic has had a couple of disappointing losses over the last couple of weeks and he has lost three matches in a row which will have knocked some of his confidence. The return game is where Krajinovic has the edge between these players on this surface and I think that is where the difference can be made in this First Round match.
It was the difference when these two met in the same tournament last year, although the Rome Masters was held in the Autumn rather than the Spring in 2020. Filip Krajinovic created more than three times the number of break points than Felix Auger-Aliassime in his straight sets win over the Canadian and on that day it was the Krajinovic returning numbers which catch the eye.
This one may be closer because of the lack of confidence both players could head to the court with, but it is a surprise to see Felix Auger-Aliassime as the favourite on the clay against this opponent. The underdog Filip Krajinovic should still be the superior returner and I think that will end up helping him through to the Second Round.
Pablo Carreno Busta - 3.5 games v Laslo Djere: He reached the Final of a clay tournament played in Cagliari, but Laslo Djere did not win the title in a close defeat to Lorenzo Sonego. There is no doubt that Djere was unfortunate to lose that day, but it has sparked a poor run and he has lost his last four clay court matches as he heads into the Rome Masters.
The real concern for Laslo Djere is that he has struggling to be competitive in his last three losses despite playing against opponents he would expect to beat. Now the Serb is going to have to step up his level when taking on Spaniard Pablo Carreno Busta who has had a good clay court season to this point, despite losing in the First Round in Madrid last week.
Pablo Carreno Busta won the title in Marbella and has had a couple of solid runs since then before the early defeat in Madrid. That won't be a major concern for Carreno Busta, but he will be looking for some momentum to take into the next Grand Slam of the season and that means trying to put some wins on the board here in Rome.
The Spaniard has been serving well in his clay court matches over the last month and that is key for Pablo Carreno Busta- it really increases the pressure on opponents when it comes to their own service games because Carreno Busta is a decent returner on this surface and you would expect him to cause problems for Laslo Djere.
That isn't to say that Laslo Djere would be brushed off because his numbers have been strong on the clay courts and this has been his favoured surface so far in his career. He has some similar kinds of numbers to Pablo Carreno Busta over the last several months on the clay courts and so this may be a match that is decided by very little between them, although I do think Pablo Carreno Busta is the superior player and eventually should be able to show that in this First Round match.
Laslo Djere should at least challenge Pablo Carreno Busta, even with his poor run of form heading into the Rome Masters, but the small margins may break in favour of the latter. There should be a lot of rallies and that is where the Carreno Busta tennis can begin to break Laslo Djere down and he can come through with a win and a cover of what is a relatively big spread.
MY PICKS: Filip Krajinovic @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
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