We move onto the second day in Rome in the final Masters tournament before the French Open and while there are plenty of matches set to be played, I haven't found too many that I think are appealing enough to place a marker on.
More Picks should be made as the tournament progresses, but there are some tight matches being played on Monday.
Aslan Karatsev - 3.5 games v Miomir Kecmanovic: A pretty remarkable run at the Australian Open back in February coupled with some strong performances in Challenger events in the second half of 2020 has pushed Aslan Karatsev into a career high World Number 27 position. To sum up the rise, the Russian is set to be a Seed at the French Open and he is clearly someone the layers have a keen eye on getting on their side.
That means Aslan Karatsev could find himself a little over-rated in the weeks and months ahead and his clay court performances over the last several weeks have been a little better than average. While reaching the Final in Belgrade and holding a win over Novak Djokovic, Aslan Karatsev has suffered relatively early losses in Monte Carlo and Madrid and his numbers are someway short of the kind of marker he had been setting in the hard court matches played.
So far in 2021, Aslan Karatsev has won 62% of his service points played on the clay courts and he has won 38% of return points which means he could be someone we can look to oppose with the right opponent. Being over-rated means Karatsev can be asked to cover big numbers, bigger than he should, but that may not be the case in the First Round in Rome.
The draw has thrown up a match against Miomir Kecmanovic and the Serb has produced a 2-3 record on the clay courts since the European clay court swing has begun. Like Aslan Karatsev, Miomir Kecmanovic reached a career best World Ranking earlier in 2021, but he has been struggling for consistency with his tennis.
Miomir Kecmanovic has struggled behind serve and on return in his clay court matches in 2021, but those numbers take a pretty big hit when only considering matches against top 100 Ranked opponents. In those matches, Kecmanovic is winning just 58% of points behind serve and he has held just 65% of service games played and that has put considerable pressure on his return game which has seen the Serb break in 19% of return games played.
I expect there ie enough consistency in the Aslan Karatsev game to expose Miomir Kecmanovic's struggles and I think that will lead to a solid win for the Russian player. There is a confidence about the Karatsev game which has seen him largely dominate those opponents Ranked outside the top 20 that he has faced on the clay courts over the last few weeks and I think he can come through with a cover in this victory.
MY PICKS: Aslan Karatsev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
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