The last couple of days have been very poor for the Tennis Picks, but I am a touch frustrated with my selections and also with a couple of matches barely dropping on the wrong side of the fence.
With two days left in Madrid before the Tours move to Rome, I do want some positive momentum to carry me into the last Masters tournament before the French Open begins later this month.
Ashleigh Barty - 1.5 games v Aryna Sabalenka: This is the second red clay Final which features Ashleigh Barty and Aryna Sabalenka already in 2021 and the two players may be heading towards the French Open as two of the four or five favourites to win the next Grand Slam of the season.
The two players met in the Final in Stuttgart a couple of weeks ago and it was Ashleigh Barty who came from a set behind to eventually get the better of Aryna Sabalenka. The Australian was a deserving winner on the day once she figured out the big hitting game that Sabalenka brings to the court, although the conditions in Madrid may be a little tougher for Ashleigh Barty when it comes to defending and turning rallies in her favour.
Over the week in Madrid, Aryna Sabalenka has been playing the better tennis than Ashleigh Barty, although some of the numbers are down to the fact that she has not faced the same level of competition as Barty. That has to be factored into the match and both players will be confident they can get enough out of their serves to at least give them a chance to play first strike tennis on a clay court which is quicker than most others on the European clay court swing.
Aryna Sabalenka has the edge in the returning numbers, but again it is partly down to the fact that she has not faced servers like Paula Badosa and Petra Kvitova like Ashleigh Barty has had to do. It is clear that Sabalenka is plenty confident and really finding her feet on the clay where the ball just sits up for her heavy groundstrokes, but I expect Ashleigh Barty to make life awkward with her ability to hit through the court.
In their match in Stuttgart, Ashleigh Barty created break points in seven return games compared with Aryna Sabalenka's four return games and she also won 47% of return points compared with 35% for the Belarusian. The faster conditions in Madrid should mean those return numbers are knocked back somewhat, but I do think Ashleigh Barty remains the more consistent player on the clay courts of the two playing in the Final in Madrid.
The 'x' factor also favours Ashleigh Barty as one of the smarter players on the Tour who is willing to move to her second or third game plan if the first one is not working as well as she would like. The ability to make adjustments within a match can't be underestimated and I think Ashleigh Barty will work her way past Aryna Sabalenka to underline her status as perhaps the favourite to win the French Open where she will be playing for the first time since winning the Grand Slam title in 2019.
Alexander Zverev - 1.5 games v Dominic Thiem: There will be some painful memories for Alexander Zverev to deal with when he faces Dominic Thiem in this Madrid Masters Semi Final and thoughts won't be too far away from the US Open Final these two competed in last year.
On that occasion Alexander Zverev won the first two sets and also served for the Championship in the fifth set, but it was Dominic Thiem who recovered and eventually won the final set tie-breaker to become a first time Grand Slam Champion. He also improved his head to head against Alexander Zverev to 8-2, while Thiem has long been considered one of the top three clay courters on the ATP side of the Tour.
Unsurprisingly that has led to Dominic Thiem winning four of their five previous matches on the clay courts, although the last time they have met came in 2018 at the French Open. And one memory that will give Alexander Zverev confidence is the fact that the sole win on clay over Dominic Thiem has occurred here in Madrid where the conditions should suit the aggressive style of the German player.
Alexander Zverev won't be short of confidence having beaten Rafael Nadal in the Quarter Final on Friday and deserving his victory. The German has been serving very well in this tournament and he has faced just seven break points in total in his three wins in Madrid, while Alexander Zverev's return has been very effective throughout the tournament.
I do expect him to be tested by Dominic Thiem who has only made his return to the Tour at this tournament having not previously played since mid-March in Dubai. Despite the lack of time playing competitive tennis, Dominic Thiem has shown off his clay court experience to win his three matches here, although he has been pushed pretty far by both Alex De Minaur and John Isner in the last two Rounds.
The numbers from those two wins shows that Thiem is serving pretty efficiently, but the timing on the return has not really reached the level he can and I do think that is where Alexander Zverev has a big edge in this Semi Final. Take away the big win over Marcos Giron in the Second Round and Dominic Thiem is winning 36% of return points played in this tournament compared with Alexander Zverev's 42% mark and that is a considerable difference.
It has shown up in the percentage of return games in which a break has been secured by the two players with Thiem running at 20% in the last two matches compared with Zverev's 32% mark, although you can't ignore the fact that Dominic Thiem did face the huge-serving Isner in the Quarter Final.
Even then I think the conditions here in Madrid look to be suiting Alexander Zverev a bit more than Dominic Thiem and the former should also be more ready to play competitive tennis day after day rather than Thiem who is building fitness towards the French Open. There are going to be some key moments and much will depend on how much focus Alexander Zverev has as he tries to back up the big win over Rafael Nadal, but if he continues serving at the level he has been in this tournament I think the return game will earn the chances to break down Dominic Thiem.
MY PICKS: Ashleigh Barty - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madrid Masters Update: 17-18, - 5 Units (70 Units Staked, - 7.14% Yield)
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