The Rome Masters is beginning to move into the meat of the draw for the ATP Tournament being played here as some of the top Seeds return to the court on Tuesday.
There are some big matches in the WTA Tournament too on another busy day in the Italian capital as we begin the fast approach towards the French Open beginning at the end of the month.
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 games v Tommy Paul: Any time a player has won a couple of matches to earn their way through the Qualifiers into the main draw they should be respected as someone who has their eye in on the court and happy enough with the conditions. That is what Tommy Paul will be holding onto as he looks to make his way past a higher Ranked opponent in the First Round and the American has proved he is capable enough of performing on the clay courts.
Not many from the United States have really enjoyed the surface having grown up on the hard courts, but Tommy Paul has decent enough numbers. He only just missed out on direct entry into the Rome Masters main draw and Tommy Paul is close to breaking into the top 50 in the World Rankings for the first time.
Last week in Madrid Tommy Paul also took a set off of Andrey Rublev which will give him some confidence and he has solid, if unspectacular, numbers on the clay courts. The American doesn't have the best serve, but he makes up for that with decent returning and Paul will have learnt plenty from losing to Roberto Bautista Agut in the Monte Carlo Masters main draw.
On that day it was the edge that Roberto Bautista Agut had on the returning side of the game that helped him past Paul and I do think the return aspect is going to be very important to this match too.
Despite being very familiar with clay courts, Bautista Agut has produced his best tennis on the faster surfaces, although that is not to say he isn't a decent enough clay courter. The returning numbers are a little down from where we expect Roberto Bautista Agut to operate at, but those have been largely dented by John Isner in his win over the Spaniard in Madrid last week.
Roberto Bautista Agut has been slightly better at looking after his serve at key moments compared with Tommy Paul, but the real edge is the fact that the former has broken in 29% of return games played on the clay courts compared with Paul's 25% number. When only considering the matches against players Ranked within the top 100, Tommy Paul's number dips further to 21% and I do think the surface in Rome should be one on which the superior return player is able to exert the control on the outcome.
It could be a touch closer than the match in Monte Carlo if Tommy Paul can serve more first serves than he managed that day, but even then you would have to figure that Roberto Bautista Agut can eventually break down this opponent.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Taylor Fritz: There is little doubt that the focus for Novak Djokovic is finding his best form whenever a Grand Slam comes around and he made a decision to withdraw from the Madrid Masters last week. The World Number 1 and top Seed is back for the Rome Masters though and he is looking for a strong tournament after a couple of relatively poor performances by Novak Djokovic's own high standards.
He was surprisingly beaten very early on at the Monte Carlo Masters and was then ousted in the Belgrade Semi Final which means Novak Djokovic is just 3-2 on the clay courts in 2021. Novak Djokovic did win the Rome Masters last year and reached the Final of the French Open so there won't be too much panic, but you would feel this is an important tournament for him.
Novak Djokovic's three wins have come in largely one-sided fashion, but the two defeats will be a concern and there is definite room for improvement.
The opening match in Rome will come in the Second Round against Taylor Fritz who beat Daniel Evans in the First Round (Daniel Evans beat Novak Djokovic at the Monte Carlo Masters). That is a solid looking win for the American who has not been at his most comfortable on the clay courts and also ended a three match losing run for Taylor Fritz ahead of this huge challenge for him.
He will be confident having pushed Novak Djokovic all the way to a fifth set decider when these two players met at the Australian Open earlier this year, but that was on a surface that Taylor Fritz has enjoyed much more than the red dirt. The problem for Fritz is that he does not get through as many service games with the kind of ease he can on a hard court, and that puts a lot of pressure on a return game which is average at best.
There have been one or two signs of improvement from Taylor Fritz on the clay courts this season, but the numbers return to the kind of levels we expect of him when Fritz has faced top 100 or top 50 Ranked opponents.
It could take Novak Djokovic a bit of time to really find his best, but he has twice played Taylor Fritz on the clay courts and broken down the younger players tennis. Those clay court matches were played in 2019 and I am not sure there has been a significant enough improvement from Fritz in that time to avoid seeing Novak Djokovic pull away over the course of the match.
Novak Djokovic will want to improve his serve if he is going to challenge for the big clay titles left in 2021, but he has won 48% of return points played in the five matches he has competed in and broken in 44% of return games played. I expect that side of his tennis to put the pressure on Taylor Fritz and eventually break him down in this Second Round match.
Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 games v Kei Nishikori: There was a medical timeout needed in the first set in his eventual three set win over Laslo Djere, but Pablo Carreno Busta didn't seem to be hindered and finished the match much stronger than he begun. He has had the Monday off to prepare himself for the Second Round at the Rome Masters which can only benefit Pablo Carreno Busta and I expect him to be ready for this match.
The Spaniard will take on a veteran in Kei Nishikori who was a comfortable winner over home favourite Fabio Fognini and the former top ten player was not overly taxed in that match. Injuries have really hurt Kei Nishikori over the last couple of seasons and he is still working his way back to his very best, but Nishikori is someone that has played some of his best tennis on the clay courts where he can get his groundstrokes going.
It has been something of a mixed season for Nishikori on the clay courts despite the 4-2 record and his numbers have backed that up- the serve has been erratic and he is holding in just 72% of service games played on the surface, but Kei Nishikori has been returning effectively enough to break in 30% of return games.
He is going to need to be stronger and more resilient behind serve if he is going to get the better of Pablo Carreno Busta. The Spaniard has not always found his best tennis on the clay courts, which is a surprise, but he is holding 81% of service games played on the surface in 2021 and that is a significant edge over Kei Nishikori and especially when noting the break percentages are identical.
Losses to Casper Ruud, Rafael Nadal and Federico Delbonis on the red dirt is nothing to be ashamed about for Pablo Carreno Busta and I think he has all of the tennis needed to get the better of Kei Nishikori as he did at the Australian Open in February. Both players are strong returners, but it is the superior serving and backing up that shot that Pablo Carreno Busta has been able to put together compared with Kei Nishikori that could prove to be the difference between the two players on the day.
MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elise Mertens - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marketa Vondrousova - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rome Masters Update: 1-2, - 2.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 39% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment