There is another busy day coming up at the Madrid Masters and I am looking to back up what was a decent Tuesday.
It could have been better, but over the last month I can certainly feel things could always be worse and especially after more Set/Match Points that came and went in some of the matches that I had selected.
Petra Kvitova + 3.5 games v Ashleigh Barty: There had been very little sign throughout her career to suggest that the first Grand Slam title that Ashleigh Barty was going to win would come at the French Open. The best run the Australian had previously had any Grand Slam was reaching the Quarter Final at the Australian Open in 2019, but Barty surprised many by picking up the French Open title later in the same year and she will head to Paris as one of the two players whose last appearance on those courts had been in winning the title.
After missing the entirety of the 2020 season following the Covid-19 outbreak, Ashleigh Barty has returned to clay court action by winning the title in Stuttgart and she has won three matches in reaching the Madrid Quarter Final. Confidence on the red dirt is clearly still very high in the Barty camp, although the most evident part of her performances over the last month has been the fight that Barty has shown to turn matches that looked to have gotten beyond her.
The ability to work out where a match is being won and lost and to be able to make the changes to the tennis to turn them around is highly impressive from Barty and something her opponent will know all about. On a number of occasions Ashleigh Barty has recovered from tough positions to beat Petra Kvitova and I am not that surprised to see the current World Number 1 going into this Quarter Final as the favourite.
In saying that, I think it would be foolish to ignore the amount of tight matches that Barty has been involved in regardless of the fact she has found the right tennis to win many of those. Now she has to take on Petra Kvitova who has twice reached the Semi Final at the French Open and who has long been a very competent clay court player despite her only Grand Slam successes coming on a vastly different surface as the grass at Wimbledon is.
Petra Kvitova has not been at her very best on the clay courts so far this season, but her three wins in Madrid have been impressive and the faster conditions here should suit the kind of style that the Czech lefty wants to bring to the court. Both players have been serving well in Madrid and there is room for improvement in their return games and I do anticipate a tight match between these two top WTA players.
The underdog does look to be peaking in this tournament and matches between Petra Kvitova and Ashleigh Barty have been very, very competitive in recent years which makes the amount of games being given to the Czech player look very appealing. I think she is a comfortable enough clay courter to hurt Ashleigh Barty and the latter has just about crossed over the line in the last two Rounds compared with Petra Kvitova who has looked the stronger player.
Ashleigh Barty has been facing a lot more break points than Petra Kvitova in the tournament to this point too and I expect the returning of the latter to at least give her a chance to win a set and keep this match very close even in a losing effort.
More than half of their previous nine matches have needed a third set decider to determine the winner and both have had four match winning streaks against the other. Petra Kvitova snapped her four match losing run by beating Ashleigh Barty in Doha fifteen months ago and I think this has all the makings of a very tight match when looking at the numbers both have been producing on the clay courts over the last month.
Paula Badosa - 1.5 games v Belinda Bencic: A career best World Ranking was reached by Paula Badosa last month and you would think the next few weeks offers her a really good chance to build on that with the clay courts her favoured surface. A run to the Semi Final in Charleston was a good start for the Spaniard, but she has backed that up with three wins here in Madrid to reach the Quarter Final where she will begin as favourite.
At 23 years old, Paula Badosa looks like an improving player on the Tour and she is beginning to put some consistency on her performances which are pushing her up the World Rankings. It is important to help Badosa enter the biggest tournaments without the need for a Wild Card in the future, but she has taken full advantage of the opportunity that has been afforded to her in Madrid.
The first three matches have been tough for Badosa and the big concern has to be the amount of time she has spent on the court. The Spaniard needed more than two and a half hours to beat Anastasija Sevastova in the Third Round, but the set up in Madrid this season has given the players a chance to have a day of rest between matches and that could be vital for Badosa.
She will take on a higher Ranked opponent in the form of Belinda Bencic, but consistency has been a big issue for the Swiss player over the last twelve months. When the World Rankings return to the usual format I fully expect to see Bencic have a significant drop from her current World Number 11 spot, although the run to the Quarter Final in Madrid will be valuable to her.
Valuable and surprising considering the level that Belinda Bencic has found on the clay courts where she has proven to be a pretty average performer in recent years. Belinda Bencic had been just 1-2 on the clay courts in 2021 before her run in Madrid and she has been a touch fortunate in the last two Rounds to work her way past a couple of opponents who will feel they could have had a different result on a different day.
Belinda Bencic has been producing better service numbers than Paula Badosa, but there is a massive edge in the returning aspect the two players have produced. The Spaniard is winning over 50% of return points played compared with Bencic's 39% mark in this tournament and I do think that will be the key difference when this Quarter Final is decided.
Paula Badosa also holds an edge mentally when you think of the way she dismantled Bencic over three sets in Charleston last month- the American clay is different to the European clay and the faster conditions should help Bencic here, but Badosa got enough out of her first serve to break down the Bencic game over the two plus hours they spent on the court.
The expectation to win might be a hindrance to Paula Badosa, but I think she will likely see herself as the underdog and I expect that to focus her and help get the better of Belinda Bencic. I do think the Spaniard is the better clay courter of the two and looks to be playing the better tennis too which could make all the difference in this Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Paula Badosa - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cristian Garin - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Madrid Masters Update: 12-10, + 1.74 Units (44 Units Staked, + 3.95% Yield)
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